Sneak Peek: Nadav Eyal on Israel’s Early Elections

Summary

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Episode Overview

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Episode: Sneak Peek: Nadav Eyal on Israel’s Early Elections
Date: May 16, 2026
Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Nadav Eyal (ARC Media Contributor)

This insider episode features Dan Senor and Nadav Eyal discussing the significant developments driving Israel towards early elections. They unpack the catalyst behind the government’s accelerated move, the internal politics of the ruling coalition, and provide analysis of rising political figures like Gadi Eisenkot. The conversation is candid and technical, aimed at subscribers seeking clarity and nuance on Israeli politics.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Trigger for Early Elections in Israel

• The "Gong" Moment:
  Nadav Eyal explains that the trigger for early elections emerged this week, when a key ultra-Orthodox faction, led by the spiritual leader Rabbi Lando (aged 94), ordered its members to leave the government, citing a total loss of trust.

  • Quote (03:59):
    “There is no bloc anymore. We have no trust with this government anymore, and we need to go to an election as soon as possible. He wrote this with his own handwriting. And because of that, that began a process of the government and the coalition crumbling down immediately.” – Nadav Eyal

• Rabbi Lando's Influence:
  Rabbi Lando, leader of the centrist Lithuanian faction within Yahadut HaTorah, commands high spiritual authority. His handwritten note demanding elections was a dramatic and public statement, immediately destabilizing the governing coalition.

• Technical Procedures:
  The opposition and, soon after, the government itself, filed bills for Knesset disintegration and new elections. Prime Minister Netanyahu pushed for control over the process, aiming for a later election date.

2. Root Cause: The Conscription Law Crisis

• The Fracture Point:
  The core dispute is over conscription for the ultra-Orthodox—a long-standing issue now intensified by public demand and Supreme Court pressure after Israel’s recent war.

  • Quote (05:10):
    “There is a crack in that diamond, and that crack is the conscription law ... They think he betrayed them. They're very disappointed that there is no new waiver law. And that's it for this 90-something-year-old rabbi ... that note in his own handwriting became the front headline.” – Nadav Eyal

• Political Stakes for Netanyahu:
  The inability to pass a new conscription waiver law infuriated key ultra-Orthodox partners, resulting in a dramatic loss of parliamentary majority.

3. Timing and Dynamics of New Elections

• Dates Matter:
  While elections had to happen by late October, the argument centers on whether they occur in September or October—a matter of weeks, but significant to Netanyahu.

  • Quote (08:48):
    “In the Middle East, a few hours could be extremely meaningful. So the difference for him, it's like a sea change between the end of October and September 1st.” – Nadav Eyal

• Coalition Dynamics:
  The act of a key ultra-Orthodox leader declaring, "there is no bloc anymore," signals willingness to realign post-election, possibly with the opposition, and changes power dynamics.

• Legal Repercussions:
  An earlier election restricts the government from making key appointments (e.g., head of Mossad), intensifying Netanyahu's desire for delay.

• Religious Calendar Factor:
  Certain parties believe a September election is advantageous, aligning with Jewish holidays.

4. Q&A Segment: Gadi Eisenkot’s Role in Israeli Politics

• Rising Star Explained:
  Responding to listener Mark from Rishon Litzion, the discussion delves into Gadi Eisenkot’s growing influence.

  • Quote (10:35):
    “Gadi Eisenkourt is really right now the person who's shining within Israeli politics ... he's basically picking up Dan, if you look at the polls, between half a mandate, half a seat to a seat every week, which is a lot.”

• Defining “Mamlachtiyut”:
  Eisenkot embodies “Mamlachtiyut,” a value rooted in state interest and public service, as conceptualized by David Ben Gurion.

  • Quote (11:16):
    “Mamlachtiyut comes from the Hebrew word mamlacha, kingdom ... things need to be done in state interest and the public interest.”

• Personal and Political Credentials:
  Eisenkot, a former Chief of Staff, represents centrism, sacrifice (having lost family in war), and a pragmatic, public-minded leadership style. Despite his momentum, Nadav is skeptical Eisenkot will be the main contender, but warns not to underestimate him.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the fragmentation of Netanyahu's coalition:
  “There is no bloc anymore. We have no trust with this government anymore, and we need to go to an election as soon as possible.” – Nadav Eyal quoting Rabbi Lando (03:59)

• On the timing of elections:
  “In the Middle East, a few hours could be extremely meaningful.” – Nadav Eyal (08:48)

• On Gadi Eisenkot's uniqueness:
  “If there is one contender in this race that symbolizes Mamlakhtiyut, it's Qadi Eisenkot.” – Nadav Eyal (11:11)

• On political unpredictability:
  “It's those people you really need to look at because they are going to surprise you and Eisenkut is really there.” – Nadav Eyal (13:30)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:49 – Host Dan Senor asks for a breakdown of the week’s political developments
• 02:11–03:59 – Nadav Eyal explains the ultra-Orthodox party's withdrawal
• 04:58–06:27 – Analysis of the conscription law’s role in triggering the government’s collapse
• 06:52–09:11 – Discussion of why the election date matters and coalition dynamics
• 10:33–13:30 – Listener question: Who is Gadi Eisenkot? His profile, ideologies, and political trajectory

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Summary

This episode provides a deeply informed look at the complexities of Israel’s looming early elections, sparked by internal coalition rifts over the conscription law for the ultra-Orthodox. Nadav Eyal expertly clarifies why Rabbi Lando’s actions were decisive, how Netanyahu is maneuvering for procedural advantage, and what’s at stake in the timing. The episode closes with a nuanced profile of Gadi Eisenkot, a figure whose blend of military leadership and centrist values is seen as increasingly resonant in Israeli politics. The conversation is rich with insider perspective, offering clarity for listeners seeking to understand Israel’s current political drama.

Transcript

[A]

Hi, it's Dan. This is a sneak peek from the members only edition of our show, Inside Call Me Back, where we pull back the curtain and have the conversations we typically have after the cameras stop rolling. Over the past couple of years, Call Me Back has grown into something much bigger than we ever expected. A place for clarity, context, and honest conversations at a time when those things can seem hard to find. That's what ARC Media is all about. Building a truly independent voice, which means no one shaping what we say or how we say it. To help support our rapidly expanding operations, we created inside CallMeBack, our members only feed. If CallMeBack has been meaningful to you and you want to be part of what we're building, I hope you'll join us. Right now we're offering an annual subscription for $60. That's just $5 a month. Your contribution goes a long way in helping us show up when it matters most. You can [e-mail] or through the link in the show and to our insiders. Thank you.

[B]

You are listening to an art media podcast.

[C]

Welcome to the inside edition of the Call Me Back podcast where we pull back the curtain and have the conversations we typically have after the cameras stop rolling. Thank you for subscribing to the show and supporting the CallMeBack podcast and everything we do here at ARK Media today. In the hot seat addressing your questions and your personal dilemmas is ARC Media contributor Nadav Ayel. Nadav, welcome back to the Inside.

[B]

Thank you, Dan. Glad to be here.

[C]

Nadav. Before we get into the questions from our insiders, I'm also a paying subscriber, so I get to ask a question. What is going on with the elections? We've been so consumed all week as we should be with the Nick Kristof column in the New York Times. But while all that was happening, oh, by the way, there was finally real movement on a path to elections in Israel. So can you tell us what's been happening?

[B]

Yeah, actually, you know, if there's a moment towards an election campaign where there is a gong and everything begins, it began this week and it began with the ultra Orthodox Ashkenazi small party representing the Lithuanian state section of the ultra Orthodox community De Gelatoa, which is a small party, but it's part of the bigger party of the ultra Orthodox. So it's not ytj, it's part of Yahaduta Torah.

[C]

Okay.

[B]

Inside Yahaduta Torah, there are two factions. One faction is the faction of the Hasidut. It's the courts of these Rabbis. The other faction there are the Mitna, those who are not Hasidim, sometimes referred to as the Lithuanians. And it was always more centrist. And their leader, their spiritual leader, is called Rabbi Lando. And Rabbi Lando basically ordered the members of the Knesset under his control to walk out of this government to lead to an election. He wrote, we don't have any trust with this government anymore. Rabbi Lando is, if I'm not mistaken, 94 years old. And he is an arch leader, a spiritual leader. It's his spiritual leadership within the entire ultra Orthodox community that matters. And what he wrote was so dramatic, Dan. He wrote, there is no bloc anymore. We have no trust with this government anymore, and we need to go to an election as soon as possible. He wrote this with his own handwriting. And because of that, that began a process of the government and the coalition crumbling down immediately. Opposition parties suggested, put down a bill to the Knesset for early disintegration of the Knesset going to an election, an early election law. And then the government, the coalition, knowing that they have lost their majority, issued themselves their own petition for a law to go for an early election. So Netanyahu himself ordered his members of Knesset to petition a new law that says that the elections are not going to be held at the end of of October, potentially, but earlier. And Netanyahu, of course, is still navigating and trying to get the entire system in Israel to the end of October. But because he understands that he lost the majority and he wants to be in control of the procedural process in the Knesset, the coalition is actually now petitioning for an early election. To the extent that you can say an early election between the end of October to the beginning of September, it's not going to be any earlier than the beginning of September. I know I was really technical here, Dan. I'm sorry about that.

[C]

No, no, it's useful.

[A]

But what was the impetus?

[C]

Why did this small faction make this move?

[B]

It's all about, of course, the conscription law and the crisis surrounding the conscription law, which is really essential to understand if this block, the Netanyahu block, is a diamond that Netanyahu has put so much pressure, millions of hours of politics to create this Netanyahu block. The Bibi block is very homogenous, very together, very loyal to him personally. There is a crack in that diamond, and that crack is the conscription law. And the demand coming now from the Israeli defense system, the demand coming from the people of Israel that ultra Orthodox need to enlist to following this war. And because the Israeli Supreme Court, including Its conservative judges are saying that discriminating against those who serve and continuing this kind of waiver for the ultra Orthodox, it's a problem that Netanyahu can't solve. So Netanyahu told the ultra Orthodox, look, I can't right now have a new law. We cannot pass a new law in the Knesset. I don't have the votes. That enraged them. They are enraged for a really long time. They think he betrayed them. They're very disappointed that there is no new waiver law. And that's it for this 90 something year old rabbi who has seen a lot. He said, that's it. I don't want to have anything to do with this government anymore. And that note in his own handwriting became the front headline of Israeli newspapers this week.

[C]

And we all knew that there had to be elections by the end of October. So it sounds like that's basically on track. And this just formalizes the beginning of a process that we knew was coming anyways. So what's so significant here? What's the big takeaway? Because again, it's not like because of this, the government will be dissolved prematurely. It's almost on track, maybe a little ahead of schedule, but almost on track with what we'd expected.

[B]

So we're in May, and if the elections are held September 1st or they're held at October 27th, this matters a lot to the Prime Minister. It's not me analyzing or interpreting the Prime Minister this evening when we're making this recording this evening. Israel Time has basically appealed to the ultra Orthodox behind the scenes and has told them that the chance of him losing the selections are much higher if they are going to be litigated in September. And he was asking them to agree again for October. And he was making a set of explanations. First of all, he doesn't know the Iran issue, how this is going to end. He cannot devote time in a few weeks for an election campaign. He thinks that the date is wrong. There are several reasons that the Prime Minister doesn't like September. And he's trying still to appeal to the ultra Orthodox that it will be late November. So I know that, that a few thousand kilometers away, the difference between September 15 and October 27 seems, you know, minimal. And I tend to agree. I don't think it's going to change much. But the dynamics here matters. And that's the second point. It's not only about the date, it's also about the dynamics of the ultra Orthodox. Saying we're angry at this coalition and for a leader of an Orthodox faction to say there is no block anymore. What is he saying, Dan? He's saying we're willing to go with the opposition after the next election, or at least he's trying to give that impression. And that changes things in terms of the dynamics towards the election. That doesn't mean that Netanyahu, to your question, is going to lose the elections. It doesn't mean that the opposition is going to win necessarily. It's not a catastrophe. Elections were bound to happen this year, but it's not comfortable for Netanyahu.

[C]

Yeah, it just moves up the timing. And in a world in which Netanyahu believes he needs more time to get himself in the best position for reelection, if there are things he still needs to do as prime minister, then I guess a few weeks is meaningful.

[B]

Absolutely. And in the Middle East, a few hours could be extremely meaningful. So the difference for him, it's like a sea change between the end of October and September 1st. Also, there are legal issues. If this government indeed is going to go to an election on September 1st in a really short while, they can't make any more nominations, including of important people like the head of the Mossad.

[A]

Got it.

[B]

They can't nominate anyone because they become an interim government. And because of that, Netanyahu is absolutely wary. You know what he's saying, the ultra Orthodox if you want me to try and get you some perks before we go into that legal area in which I cannot operate anymore, give me a little bit more of time. What do you care? But Ali Adherry, the leader of Shah, another ultra Orthodox party, thinks that September is much better for the ultra Orthodox vote than anything else. It has a lot to do with holidays. This year we can go into the Jewish holiday year, but they have their own reasons.

[C]

Well, okay, so from our insiders here, we have a we have several questions related to the election. So I'm just going to go through them pivoting off what you and I were just bantering about. Let's start with Mark from Rishon Litzion, who writes as an Olay Hadash, meaning a new citizen of Israel, a new immigrant to Israel, as an Ole Hadash about to vote in my first election. He writes, voting from the erstwhile Likud stronghold of Rishon Litzy. On I appreciated the insider episode with Amit Nadav on the state of the political landscape. There was a lot of nuance on the main contenders, but I was hoping to hear more about Gotti Eisenkot, a deeper dive into what he represents. If he's a serious contender, or is he just a kingmaker? What is his ideology and what can we expect from him?

[B]

I think it's an excellent question. Gadi Eisenkourt is really right now the person who's shining within Israeli politics. It doesn't mean that it's going to last. It doesn't mean that he's going to replace Bennett as the contender against Netanyahu right now. If I need to place a bet, he's not going to. But he's definitely on the rise, and he's basically picking up Dan, if you look at the polls, between half a mandate, half a seat to a seat every week, which is a lot. So he has a momentum now as to his ideology, if there is one contender in this race that symbolizes Mamlakhtiyut, it's Qadi Eisenkot.

[C]

There's not a straight translation.

[B]

It's a word that was essential for David Ben Gurion. David Ben Gurion took this word and turned it into a state ideology. Mamlachtiyut comes from the Hebrew word mamlacha, kingdom. And the idea there means that things need to be done in state interest and the public interest. It's not the king, but the kingdom to be always with the interest of the country solely in mind. But it's also how you conduct yourself. It's centrism as a state policy to some extent. And Gadi Eisenquote really is a Persona that symbolizes that. He was a chief of staff. I think Netanyahu liked him more than any other chief of staff that he worked with. He comes from a family of Moroccan origin, but he didn't make the identity of his parents a central issue of his messaging to the Israeli public. Of course, he made his own sacrifices, and he served in the army for dozens of years. He lost his son during the war, he lost his nephew in the war. So this is a grieving family. And there is naturally a lot of respect within the Israeli public to that. And he talks a lot about Zionism. Eisenkot is not the startup nation. So Bennett is a former CEO of a startup company. Right? Yair Lapid was a TV presenter and a writer and a journalist. He, this guy, he grew up in Eilat Dan. It's even where he grew up in the army. He didn't grow up through the special units like Ehud Barak, who came from the kibbutz. He grew up through the regiments, through the brigades that were actually doing the constant fighting in Lebanon and other places. He's the kind of person that people usually look down to in terms of their sophistication, but he's extremely sophisticated. My experience with politicians is it's those people that are being somehow sidelined or downplayed or people don't take seriously enough is sophisticated enough. It's those people you really need to look at because they are going to surprise you and Eisenkut is really there. Now, if I sound positive about that,

[A]

it's because that's it for our sneak peek today. If you want to catch the full episode, please subscribe to Inside. Call me back by following the link in the description description or by going to ark media.org that's ark media.org your support is what allows us to do what we do here at arc Media. I hope to see you there. Call Me Back is produced and edited by Lon Benatar. Our production manager is Brittany Cohn. Our community manager is Ava Weiner. Sound and video editing by Liquid Audio. Our music was composed by Yuval Semo. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor.