Amit Segal (4:40)

I'll give you an example. I was driving to the studio early in the morning and I heard the radio and something was weird in the sound. So my instinct was to try whether, you know, whether it's not really tuned in. And then I got it. What I heard and was weird that for the first time in 734 days, there was a pure joy in the air. The there were many glorious moments over the last two years. We assassinated Nasrallah, we defeated Iran, we killed Sinwar, and then Sinwar the brother. But you could always get the gist of sadness because there were still hostages in Gaza, there was still a tragedy unfolding ongoing. And suddenly you could hear a pure joy. This is how a normal country looks like.

Dan Senor (5:29)

Nadav, you and I talked last night. Any further reactions to just the sentiment, the sentiment in Israel, as you're watching things play out and obviously in response to what Amit just said, I think.

Nadav (5:42)

That as Amit just said and as you said, Dan, last night when we spoke, it's like a cloud has been lifted from the country on the one hand, but there is another element there that I want to mention and I want to mention this right at the start. And these are the people that feel very differently today. And we need to acknowledge that the people who have lost their loved ones, the families who have sacrificed their sons and their daughters in the war In Gaza, those 465 men and one women that were killed inside the Gaza Strip fighting so that Hamas cannot control the Gaza Strip again, be a threat and many to get the hostages back home. Also the hostage families that are going to receive their loved ones bodies, and they need to start thinking about how to cope with that. And of course, the hostages that have been murdered, the stories that are going to be left from this war, the many hundreds and thousands of Israelis that are injured, some of them very severely injured. And I'm not mentioning this because I'm trying to put down the jubilee and the joy we all feel. I'm very much part of it. And anyone who heard our emergency episode could notice that how personally happy I am. I'm mentioning that because it's very important to remember that this was Israel's longest war and it was a terrible war. It's going to be burned to our flesh for many years, but mainly to these families who have sacrificed everything and are going to remain with this immense pain that none of us can imagine.

Dan Senor (7:27)

Amit, I've heard a lot. Nadav, I've heard a lot of that since we released that conversation. A lot of the feedback we've gotten from Israeli families who aren't celebrating today, obviously they're feeling joy for those who get their loved ones home. But if you're not getting your loved one home, it's still a sad day. And one of the messages, I won't say the person's name, but one of the messages I received was a message from a family that lost a son on October 7. She wrote we, along with 1,200 otherwise other families are preparing to say Yizkor and have a yortzite on Simchat Torah. And everyone keeps thinking we should be happy. So for many of the families that have loved ones who were killed on October 7, this is what this holiday represents to them, not the return of the rest of the hostages in a new day timed with this beautiful holiday. It's not that. And so these are these mixed emotions that are flying around. Nadav, can you tell us a little bit about what we know now as we're learning more about the details of the deal?

Nadav (8:32)

Yes. First of all, we know now that this is going to happen rather quickly. So we're talking about this weekend as the time in which all the hostages, the live hostages, are to be released. And the release of the Israeli bodies that are held by Hamas is due to begin almost Immediately, too. Although Hamas has already notified the mediators that it doesn't know as to some of these dead bodies, where they are buried or they are held. Israel treats these announcements by Hamas very suspiciously. Israeli intelligence is trying to find out. But the Israeli intelligence also doesn't know sometimes and some families have been notified by the officers that are handling those families from the IDF that they are still trying to determine where these bodies are held. These are extremely tense hours for these families. Now Israel is going to redraw to what we call the yellow line. It's actually not the yellow line anymore, but what we call the yellow line according to the Trump plan, as it was published by the White House. One of the things that happened in Sharma Sheikh during the talks between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the Egyptians, the Qataris, and mainly, of course, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, is that Israel, Israel agreed to withdraw slightly more eastward than it did agree at the beginning. So between 200 and 600 meters more. Another thing we do know is that some symbols of the Palestinian prisoner list are not going to be released. And the name that the Prime Minister's office has committed to is Marwan Baragouti. They have said on the record he's not going to be released. By the way. Maybe Amit has more information about that. They didn't say that Ahmad Saadat is not going to be released.

Dan Senor (10:23)

He's the one who you talked about in our last episode, who was a Hamas leader in the west bank, who's a major player in slaughtering a lot of Israelis during the second Intifada.

Nadav (10:33)

So basically, Israel vetoed at least four to seven names. And what's really happening behind the scenes, which is interesting, because we thought they agreed the names. And what happened since we last recorded is that I learned that not all the names were agreed. And this is the extent of American pressure that was put on signing the agreement before the names were agreed. And I think this stems down from a recognition of Hamas and the Arab mediators that at any case, the President is not going to let this deal fall through on a specific name. One of the names was Ahmed Saadat. Another name I mentioned was Ibrahim Hamed, who's very dangerous, probably more dangerous than Marwan Baragouti and Ahmad Sadat, but less of a symbol. And there are other names there. I expect there will be a last moment crisis, because there always is a last moment crisis. As to the ninth, another question. And Amit, feel free to chip in and give your headline for the 8pm news in Israel if you want to, is the collection of weapons. What Arab sources are telling us is that Hamas didn't really agree to hand over its light weapons, Kalachnikovs, AR15s. What they're saying is that these, at most, will be held by a Palestinian or an Arab force within Gaza. It's like saying we're not actually disarming Hamas from these light weapons, but weapons that are like rocket launchers, mortar launchers, and the rest, they would be decommissioned and, of course, the tunnels. So it's the difference between light weapons and weapons that can hit more collectively, a group of people. And we don't know. The Israelis are not telling us. What's the summation here, Amit? If you want to.

Dan Senor (12:18)

Amit. Yeah. Do you know any other detail?

Amit Segal (12:21)

Yeah. I hate to bring the news to you in New York, but I don't think what was signed today in Sharm El Sheikh was a peace deal, at least not the biggest peace deal in the last 3,000 years. This was a ceasefire that was signed and a hostage deal. That's all. And that's why I'm not dead in the details and I'll explain why. The whole thing around the last two years of failed attempts to bring an end to this war was about the Israeli refusal to withdraw to the last inch or centimeter in Israel without having Hamas dismantled from the last Kalachnikov RPG and tunnel, you name it. However, since we know Hamas and we know the terrorist organizations at least, or specifically fundamentalist Muslim ones, do not tend to give up their weapons. The whole idea was about an insurance policy by Israel to make sure that there isn't a single more Israeli citizen to get killed or intimidated by Hamas. So what Israel got in this hostage deal is the amazing achievement, in my opinion, that following the release of the last hostage, Israel will still control 53% of the Gaza Strip, thus enveloping Hamas inside Gaza. Now, we have two options. We have a fork. One option is that Hamas will be willing to give each and every weapon, no matter if it's a Kalachnikov or an rpg. The other option, which is the most probable one, in my opinion, I guess that Nadav would think the same, is that Hamas is. Is not going to be willing to give it, and therefore Israel will stay in 53% of Gaza Strip for the forthcoming future. This is, in my opinion, the most probable option. And now we are going to a second phase of negotiations, which is going to be way longer. Now, here's the question then. What is Trump interested in? Is he interested mainly in bringing back all the hostages, which I think this is the right answer or in putting an end to the war in Gaza.

Dan Senor (14:29)

I've said for a while he wants those hostages back, period, full stop. So it's about getting the hostages back. And I also think he's about Abraham Accords or Abraham accords 2.0 and that is Saudi normalization, peace throughout the Middle east. That's a longer term goal. And it's the in between part that.

Amit Segal (14:51)

I'm not sure I'll put it differently. I don't think there was a single report in the American media over the last 10 months about Israel striking Hezbollah members in Lebanon. Why? Because in the eyes of the US public, the war has come to an end around November 2024 and the same would apply for here. So there are going to be a few weeks of ceasefire and then once Indonesia joining the Abraham Accords and hopefully Syria and Saudi Arab Arabia, we will see a Lebanon model of Gaza Strip. Thus that Israel is no longer inside Gaza City. But it's definitely going to attack Hamas targets if it sees that they are going to attack Israeli soldiers.

Dan Senor (15:34)

Nadav, any reaction to that?

Nadav (15:36)

I think that the president is dead set that this war will end. We'll have to wait and see. I would advise people who want to understand what the president is saying to, for instance, listen to his interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News last night in which the president, without being asked, spoke about his conversation with Netanyahu. He commended Prime Minister Netanyahu for the deal. He said that Netanyahu was happy. He also said that Netanyahu said now everybody likes me. And the president said what's more important is that they like Israel. Again, I think that to be educated by President Trump as to not being self congratulatory too much is something that no other person in the world could have achieved but Prime Minister Netanyahu. I've never heard anything like it. But I think that that remark by the president was very interesting. And of course he gave light to that remark on Fox News. And then he said something really important. Then I told Bibi, Israel can't fight against the entire world. You can't fight against the entire world. And the fact that Trump would say this in a conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu after reaching a deal hints to something deep that I'm hearing from Washington and from Israelis that have been speaking with Washington. Washington has been very worried as to Israel's situation globally and to Israel's situation within the American public and specifically within people who support, of course, the Republican Party and maga. And there is a recognition there that this war should end. And when the president says, I want to have peace in the Middle east, he means that. Now, if Hamas won't abide by the agreement. Amit, I agree with you. If Hamas is going to cheat, we'll hear President Trump saying, you know, let's open the gates of hell. But he's not going to allow this to crumble so quickly. And I remind ourselves of the Singapore summit. That was the meeting between Kim Jong Un and President Trump in the first term. And did it reach any sort of practical means of disarming North Korea from its nuclear weapons? No. Did we hear anything about the possibility of a nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula ever since? We didn't. And the president came, he shook hands with Kim Jong Un, they had this summit, and then the president basically said that the problem is over. And I think that this is his course of operations. Now, again, if Hamas is going to piss off the White House, betray Qatar, betray the Turks and everybody else, President Trump will do what he does at these cases. But I think he wants this really to end. And he's not going to allow small details to interrupt with the march towards peace, if not to the Nobel Peace Prize this year, the Nobel Peace Prize next year. By the way, I don't think this is his main motivation. I think people who think that this is the main motivation of Trump don't understand what's really happening there. It's not about getting the Nobel Peace Prize, and mainly it's about bigger issues, I think, in the background.

Dan Senor (18:49)

Yeah, I would just add, look, Trump and Netanyahu now have a long track record through Trump's first administration and now his second administration. In working together. I can't think of another leader Trump has worked with, actually, as I'm saying this, with whom alongside he has had so many diplomatic accomplishments. The big events, right, this deal, the Abraham Accords, taking down Iran's nuclear program, taking down Iran's proxy system. These are big, Impossible to ignore, impossible to not give credit to Trump for accomplishing these things.

Amit Segal (19:22)

I would suggest to watch this soccer game or football game without commentary. The Trump Netanyahu football game should not be accompanied by commentary because the commentary distorted. You should only follow the play by play because the play by play is one of the most amazing coordinations between Israeli and American leaders. Now, we can quote the F word that allegedly Trump said. So at the end of the day, what we see now is a highly coordinated move to end the war in Gaza in this specific way to attack Iran's nuclear facilities in this specific way and to take care of the Middle east in this very specific Abraham Accord way. This is my assumption, and I'm not, not sure that insights from alleged phone calls between Trump and Netanyahu is going to convince me otherwise.

Nadav (20:13)

By the way, these are not alleged phone calls. It's President Trump going on Sean Hannity telling us about the phone call that he had with the Prime Minister. But I agree with Amit's point as to the closeness of the Washington, Jerusalem relations, as to President Trump doing things unimagined before beginning in his first term. And he did this together with Prime Minister Netanyahu and Prime Minister Netanyahu and Ron Dermer are to be credited if they manage to convince the US Administration to go down the route that they want the relationships to go down there. I don't think that I will equate the coordination between the Israelis and the Americans as to Iran as to what happened right now. I don't think that Israel was in the know as to President Trump's decision that it should stop immediately all airstrikes in the Gaza Strip. I'm not sure that the entire Qatar thing was coordinated, to say the least. The attack there, I think that there was a general intention here, but this agreement is good for Israel.

Dan Senor (21:19)

The direction of travel is of a strong president supporting strong action generally. Not to say sometimes there's a pullback, but directionally strong action by, by Israel. So to take this, it seems that Trump was giving, at least publicly, and I presume privately, support for Israel to go into Gaza City. And so the message to the world was, in a previous administration or a possible future administration, Israel may have been reined in. Under this administration, Israel's not gonna be reined in. So the question is, did Trump, I mean, again, we don't know what's in his head, but did he calculate it? Is this sort of a good cop, bad cop thing? Is it helpful for Hamas to think, I'm not stopping Israel? They're going into Gaza City and they're being told there are hostages in Gaza City and they're still going in. They're being told by their military leadership it's a mistake to go in and they're still going in. So there's no stopping Israel. It's going in and the President of the United States is not stopping Israel. So that may have been a calculation that that's what Hamas needs to realize, especially against the backdrop of Hamas believing that the world was isolating Israel.

Nadav (22:23)

Absolutely.

Dan Senor (22:25)

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Nadav (23:24)

Few things pushed Hamas to this point, okay? One of them is the military threat. And there are military commanders decapitated in the Gaza Strip. This cannot be denied. They didn't want the IDF to go into Gaza. This cannot be denied. Another thing is Qatar and Turkey joining President Trump in pressuring Hamas. And why did that happen? That happened also because the President was willing to basically align them with other substantive moves in the case of Qatar, a defense treaty of sorts, in the case of Turkey, maybe supplying them with F35. Again, it's very much related on Hamas being bankrupt. Hamas is bankrupt right now. And I can continue on, but let's remember not only the story we're telling ourselves, but also the story that Hamas is telling itself. Fair point. Yeah. I'm gonna leave it maybe to Amit to say that. But Hamas has a good story that it's starting to tell. And it's not a story about defeat. It's not a story about defeat.

Dan Senor (24:23)

Okay, so Amit, I wanna ask you, Amit, what the story Hamas is telling itself. And then I wanna ask you both what Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, which are all in different ways instrumental in all of this too, what story they're telling themselves, Meaning what do they wanna accomplish here beyond, just as Amit said, a hostage release in a ceasefire. But Amit, before we get into that, what's the story Hamas is telling?

Amit Segal (24:45)

The story that it tells to its public is that we stood, we stood against huge forces, against the most formidable army in the Middle east that defeated Iran and Hezbollah, yet we are still standing. However, I think it's more up to Israel and I think the main Change, if we are trying to wrap up the last two years of war is that Israel changed its course. The main principle is not the international border being sacred, but the lives of Israel is being sacred prior to the war, Israel withdrawal from Gaza Strip and from Lebanon. And we can argue forever whether it was good or not. Let's keep it for history. But the idea was we will get international legitimacy in following October 7th. Israeli soldiers are now, as we speak, holding 53% of the Gaza Strip, 5 outposts in Lebanon and 10% of the Syrian territory, including the highest peak in or the second highest peak in the Middle east, the peak of Hermon Mount, the Syrian side, which means that the Israeli forces will be there to take care of Hamas if it tries to rearm. And this is the most important factor. I'm one of those who think that Hamas, let's put aside Iran or Turkey or Qatar. Hamas are not that strong as they pretended themselves to be. We built them. We built them with fearing to act in Gaza, with tunneling Qatari money, more than a billion dollars, with trying to end each and every military operation without entering Gaza City. And maybe we could have ended it before, I don't know. But once we did it, we can do it again. And each and every citizen in Gaza knows it very well.

Dan Senor (26:33)

Nadav, Qatar, Turkey, Egypt. What do they think they're signing up for with this deal?

Nadav (26:39)

Okay, so Qatar is getting this defense treaty. It's getting, of course, the relationship it has with President Trump.

Dan Senor (26:47)

To be clear, treaty's a technical term. I want to be careful. It's not a treaty. Treaty requires 2/3 vote by the Senate, which I don't think they would get. They are getting an arrangement and a formal agreement, but short of yes.

Nadav (26:59)

And they're getting, most importantly, a promise from the president that they'll be defended. They got a humiliating apology from Prime Minister Netanyahu. And it was done in order to make sure that everybody understand that the prime minister did what he needed to do. Right. And on this show, I said how warranted an attack on Hamas everywhere in the world is justified. But not only did the White House make sure that he apologized, it also issued photos to show him apologizing. Right. And it was very important for the Qataris, also in town in D.C. which you know very well, Dan probably bought it much better than I do.

Dan Senor (27:37)

Yeah. But I also think it may have had an effect on Qatar being doubly, triply, quadruply helpful on pressuring Hamas.

Nadav (27:43)

Qatar was to supply the bride in this wedding. And they, as far as they are concerned, they supplied. And then we go into Turkey. Erdogan sees himself as a close friend with President Trump. I think President Trump has never said anything nasty about Erdogan at all. They see themselves in this kind of an alignment. And Turkey has this problem with its air force. We discuss it on the emergency episode. It's important. They're going to get Those probably there's F35 now. Turkey is the most important factor in the change in the shift with Hamas because the Qataris were already pressuring. The Qataris are pressuring to end this war more than a year now. They understand this very clearly. That's the reason they're mediating. Okay. To begin with, they want the Muslim Brotherhood notions to survive in the Middle East. They understand they can't go against this president. But it's Turkey that became suddenly essential here. And a man who's very important, his name not very known to the general public, and that name is Ibrahim Kalim. The Turkey's head of security, by the way, has good relations also with Israel's security. The strongest man in Turkey after President Erdogan Prob. He came into this with all his power and relationships pressuring Hamas too. Egypt sees the war as a source of destabilization within Egypt. It was constantly fearing, and this is one of the reasons that relations have deteriorated in the last year, that Israel will implement the Gazan Riviera vision and will push Palestinians, at a certain point, a million Palestinians into the Sinai desert, ruled of course by the Egyptians, into Egyptians territory. And. And for them it was essential to see this war end, but also to be stakeholders in Gaza as they always were. And it's part of their status in the region, as they used to be the United States most important ally in the region. Now, with all due respect to Saudi Arabia, it's Egypt that is much bigger. It's also in Africa and in the Arab world and so forth and so forth. So these are the motivations.

Dan Senor (29:53)

All right, Amit, I know you have to run to the Channel 12 TV studio to do your day job or your night job or whatever it is or your hobby go do, because Ark Media is the main gig and Channel 12 is a hobby. Go do that and we'll catch up with you in the next couple days.

Amit Segal (30:07)

Thank you.

Dan Senor (30:08)

Nadav, before I let you go, what is your sense of current political implications inside Israel of this deal?

Nadav (30:15)

First of all, it's very important for Netanyahu to present this as a victory. There are achievements in this deal. We talked about these achievements. There are still question marks. We're going to discover the question marks. And my guess is that the pushback that I'm already seeing from the hardcore right in Israel is going to expand mainly when we're going to see the names of the terrorists that are going to be released. And I'm already seeing a lot of pushback there of people saying in Israel's right, we are opening the door to another confrontation with Hamas, we're releasing prisoners again responsible for terror activities against Israelis. People who think Israel should have never agreed to a deal in the first place. And they're pushing back, not attacking substantially, the Prime Minister not withdrawing from government to smotrich and banquet, but this is going to expand the center. And the center left in Israel is basically congratulating Israel for the deal. He has their back, so to speak. But of course this is very short lived. This is just to get the deal done. And it's because the hostage issue is an issue very much associated with the center in Israel. And they want this maintained, they want the deal to happen. It doesn't mean that they're going to join the government the day after. He doesn't want them to join the government because as to Prime Minister Netanyahu, he needs to maintain his block towards the elections. Now a key question politically is will Netanyahu see a bump in the polls? We will know this in a matter of a few days, right? By Tuesday next week, we'll know if there is a real bump in the polls. And he will need to make a very quick decision. Dan, is he gonna monetize this and go to an election, a quick election campaign, let's say in February of 2026 or he's gonna wait it out. And that's a big decision. Now after the Iran war, many people thought, including myself, he's gonna see a bump in the polls. He didn't personally. Netanyahu's condition in the polls has been improving gradually in the last year and a half. It's been improving, but very slowly. Bennett, for instance, still beat him in a few points. And who is the best candidate for prime ministership? Right. However, his block hasn't been improving. So the pro Netanyahu bloc according to the polls has remained on anything between 48 to, let's say 54 in a really good day, 54 seats out of 120. So you're not going to assemble a government that way. And the question is, will the block grow as a result of the hostages coming back home and the ceasefire in Gaza? In other words, Will the Likudniks that have left the party, by the way, before October 7th as a result of this government being so unpopular because of the judicial overhaul or what have you, will these Likudniks, and I can. And basically I can identify them to you demographically speaking, they live in the center of Israel. They live in big cities. They do not come from the Israeli periphery. They live in places like Holon, Ramatgan, Batyam Erceliya. These are the places that were the center, the historical centers of the Likud, or as we call it, the National Liberal Movement in Israel. That's the name of the Likud. Will they. They head back home? It's about seven seats out of 120 to 10 seats of 120. Netanyahu lost them. He lost most of them before the war, by the way, but he lost them. If he's getting them back, then he can absolutely win this. As we have said many, many times, burying Netanyahu politically is a really bad idea. I think that for him, and I said this on this show numerous times after the Iran war, against the backdrop of the international media saying Netanyahu doesn't want a deal, Netanyahu wants to extend the war. Netanyahu wants the war to last forever. No, no, it's much more nuanced to that. Netanyahu wanted a deal that he would be able to present as a victory. In other words, he wanted to win the war like leaders do want. And if he couldn't get the deal, he would have made the war last for however time. Now, if he would pitch it, he would say, of course, this is what leadership does. His rivals would say, it's very cynical and you're sacrificing the lives of our soldiers to get a good political result. That would be the criticisms. But for Netanyahu, he achieved here, at least with the 21 points of Trump, what he was aiming for. And because of that, that's gonna be a good pitch for him, politically speaking. And the opposition in Israel will need to make up its mind. For instance, Dan, can they litigate an election campaign based on the failure of October 7th? That's the biggest question politically, for them.

Dan Senor (35:09)

Tactically, for the opposition.

Nadav (35:11)

For the opposition. What are they saying? Are they reminding people that October 7th was a disaster when people, to some extent now maybe want to forget? And I'm not talking about the majority of Israel, I'm just talking about the votes that they need, the independence that they need in order to overthrow this prime minister. What would be their best course of action, do you think?

Dan Senor (35:34)

Look at the danger trying to make the election a referendum on October 7. On the one hand, it's obvious that anytime a country suffers a national crisis, a national catastrophe, whoever is in charge bears responsibility. And you can run just. And if that leader is running for reelection, they're the incumbent, they own it. They own the successes, they own the failures. What I find problematic, potentially, and it's early days and I haven't seen any data on this, so I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves. What is challenging about that approach for this election is the more and more we learn. NADAV so many of the current actors in the Israeli political system, whether they're leaders of other parties who were previously in positions of prime minister, in the case of Yair Lapid or Naftali Bennett or defense minister in the case of Naftali Bennett or minister of economy, or they were, you know, in the case of Yir Lapid, or they were former generals who were in senior security positions who are now leading parties like Yiro Golan. There was an element of complacency throughout the system. And so the danger for the opposition in framing this as this is just a referendum on what happened on October 7th is it potentially opens up a big discussion about what led to October 7th and what were the forces at work at who all was involved in many of the decisions. And once you start having that conversation, you start seeing a lot of people around the table. I'm not saying that's directionally where it would definitely go, but I just think that's the risk, if that is the singular approach to the election is to just make it a referendum on October 7.

Nadav (37:12)

So what should they do?

Dan Senor (37:14)

I don't know. I really. I mean, I haven't. I haven't thought that far ahead.

Nadav (37:19)

So you have conscription. You have conscription, you have the ultra orthodox.

Dan Senor (37:23)

I think the conscription issue is a powerful issue. I actually think Bennett in that sense, I mean, we're getting way into political speculation here. But that said, I think that which we should do an entire episode on this, but I think Bennett has been playing this quite cleverly, which is so far to my knowledge, and you're following it more closely than I am, he has not been hitting Netanyahu on the typical conventional, traditional hits that the opposition and the left have been hitting Netanyahu with, but he has been hitting him on the Haredi issue and the lack of shared sacrifice, shared burden across Israeli society. And I think that issue opens up a lot of divisions in Israeli society that could accrue to whoever is running against this government, because I think it creates fractures within this government. I think there are some on the right in this government who represent communities who are otherwise right leaning or firmly on the right who are disgusted by the. I hear it. I hear them say it. I've heard Amit, he's not on here to represent himself right now, but I've heard him talk about how members of the national religious community in many Likud towns and communities are disgusted by the disconnect and the disproportion between the sacrifices they and their families have made versus the Haredim. And I think that's a potentially big issue. What do you think?

Nadav (38:47)

I agree. Well, first of all, I think it takes time for people after war to process. And I think we need to acknowledge that because for instance, in 1973, right after the war, the Yom Kipp war, Labor was in control, in power. They went and did the quick elections and they actually got a resounding victory after the 1973 war, which was a failure, a failure of both politics and the army. And the same happened in Israel in other occasions. It took time until people actually also leadership to grow. What everybody's looking for in Israel right now is change. Now, I don't know where this change is coming from and what I'm saying. They're looking for change. I just spent a few minutes saying don't bury Netanyahu. But what they're looking for is a changed Israel. The general feeling is for the soldiers who are coming back home, for the reserve soldiers who have spent sometimes more than a year serving, leaving their family, risking their lives for the families who have lost their loved ones. So many, so many that have lost their loved ones. Of course, the people who are going to be post traumatic for the rest of their lives, and there are many, many thousands, probably dozens of thousands in Israel today. And of course, we have this debt down that we should remember, just economically speaking, Israel's stock market has been just booming in the last 24 hours, 48 hours. The shekel is so strong. We need to recognize that. We need to be happy about that. But we also should say, and I'm saying this after speaking with senior economists in the last week, there's going to be a price tag for this war and we're not paying yet. We basically incur debt in order to fund it and we need to pay. So all of this together means that people are talking about reform, reforming the Israeli society, using this point in time in order to really move ahead. And I think that whoever manages to somehow present a polished and reliable vision as to the future of Israel now, not only dwelling on the past, not only talking about who's responsible and who's guilty, but also giving an impression of moving forward, that's very essential. And because of that, by the way, for Netanyahu, if he gets normalization of sorts in the next few months, either with Indonesia or with Saudi Arabia or something with Lebanon, my guess is that this is going to be as important for his positioning of winning the next election. S this D Because that would mean that you're moving forward, not only trying to correct your past mistakes, and he is responsible as prime minister. You know, I'm not talking about politically or anything. You know that responsibility cannot be waived. Right?

Dan Senor (41:47)

Yeah. I'll just add on that my sense is Israeli voters who want change and who are dispirited by at least the last couple of Netanyahu years, they still give him credit to some degree for being able to work with the US on the Iran and obviously this deal. I mean, there's a sense that he does have talents and capabilities geopolitically, internationally, to make things happen that some other Israeli leaders may not have. And to the extent that he can remind them of that and then channel that into this is how we get the Saudi deal done. Right. I'm the guy now to deploy these talents to get the Saudi deal done. Normalization, full integration of the Middle East. I mean, whether he says he tries to do that before an election, whether he tries to run on that, that he runs on, I'm the guy to get us there. And then the third scenario, and again, we've gotten way too down the rabbit hole. We should dedicate a whole episode, as I said, is there's also this binary situation we were talking about in binary terms. But there's also this hybrid situation where you could have Netanyahu taking his 54 seats and forming some kind of rotating premiership in some kind of coalition government where.

Nadav (42:45)

Oh, my God, please. No, no, remember.

Dan Senor (42:48)

You remember, I think that's gonna happen. That would be my. If I had to make. You said, you know, you would bet on him getting elected. To me, the most likely scenario is that.

Nadav (42:57)

No, I didn't say that. I didn't say that. I'm betting that he's going to get.

Dan Senor (43:00)

Not that you're betting. Not that you're betting, but if someone were betting. All right, we got a wrap.

Nadav (43:04)

Of course, as someone who listens to me, you probably know that I'm praying each evening, you know, before I go to sleep that he'll be reelected. Everybody knows this about me. No, but I'm not betting on anyone in the Israeli elections.

Dan Senor (43:16)

You're not literally betting.

Nadav (43:18)

You're.

Dan Senor (43:18)

You're speculating. Okay, we're gonna leave it there.

Nadav (43:21)

I wanna say something else that is important today because of the responses that we're getting for the emergency episode. And I think that's important, and that's for me to say. And I'm saying this as an Israeli, I think that after recognizing the sacrifices made and the efforts made, I need also to acknowledge the support that the people listening to this podcast, the Jewish community, not only in the United States, but around the world, has given to Israelis since the beginning of the war. I cannot think about anything more meaningful as far as Jewish peoplehood as what has happened right after Israel was attacked in October 7. The sheer investment of time, of money, and mostly of sentiment by Jewish communities around the world has been so touching. And when Israelis felt that they are completely alone, it was you, Dan. You and the people like you that have been there with Israel. And I find this life changing. It's life changing for me. It changed my life not only because I was on this show and I'm speaking with Jewish communities across this country, and not only in this country. It changed my life in the way that I perceive the Jewish people, in a way that I perceive the Diaspora in a way of what I should explain to the Israelis about the Jewish Diaspora and specifically the Jewish community in the United States. But people have given so much of themselves, have devoted so much of their intensity of their life energy to think about people living thousands of miles away solely because we are one people. And in that regard, history will tell us if this war has made us stronger from within in Israel. I do hope so. I believe so as to the Israeli society. But it has definitely made the Jewish people stronger in the sense of our interconnections. And it's very important for the future, not only for times of crisis like the one that we have experienced in the last two years that isn't completely over for.

Dan Senor (45:36)

I'll just add to that. I'm very moved by that Michal Biton, the Jewish educator who I quoted in my state of Oral Jewry address. She had this incredible line, because what you're describing is peoplehood, right? That's what you're describing, Nadav, Which I think Diaspora Jews had a sense and are educated on the notion of Jewish peoplehood. I've always thought that Israelis, before October 7, Israelis, never. The whole notion of there's Israel, there's Israelis. But they didn't feel this, like, sense of this cohesiveness of the Jewish people, this cohesiveness, that interconnectivity with the Diaspora in a way that they felt after October 7th. For all the reasons you're saying. And what Michal Bitton said is she said that pain you're feeling, and she was speaking to the Diaspora, that pain you're feeling after October 7th, right? This pain we all in the Diaspora were feeling, that pain you're feeling is peoplehood. That's what that pain is. And I think what you're saying, Nadav, is the support you're feeling and the sense that. But, you know, the Diaspora has Israel's back. That too. That support you're feeling, that's peoplehood. And I think it's being felt and deepened in both directions. And I agree with you. Maybe, you know, one blessing out of all of this is that it endures.

Nadav (46:43)

God willing.

Dan Senor (46:44)

We'll be in touch soon. Call Me Back is produced and edited by Elon Beck. Benatar Arc Media's executive producer is Adam James Levin Aretti. Sound and video editing by Martin Juergo and Marian Khalis Burgos. Our director of operations, Maya Rockoff. Research by Gabe Silverstein. Our music was composed by Yuval Semo. Until next time, I'm your host, Dan Senor. By now you've heard the stories how one Birthright trip changes everything. Not just for individual participants, but for their families, their communities and the wider Jewish world. Imagine more and more young Jews experiencing birthright and emerging as proud Jewish leaders, confident in who they are, with a deep, lasting connection to Israel. That's how we help build the strong, bright Jewish future we all want to see. In 25 years, Birthright has made a lasting impact on the entire Jewish world. Now it's our privilege and responsibility to keep it going. Because Birthright isn't just a trip. It's pride, identity and connection. With your generosity, thousands more can experience this too. Support the movement today at BirthrightIsrael Foundation. Callmeback Birthright Israel. One trip changes everything.