Call Me Back - with Dan Senor: Episode Summary Episode Title: The Likelihood of Phase Two - with Amit Segal
Release Date: February 24, 2025
Host/Author: Ark Media
Guest: Amit Segal, Senior Political Analyst for Channel 12

1. Overview of the Hostage Deal and Current Situation

The episode delves into the complexities surrounding the ongoing hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. As Phase One of the agreement draws to a close, Israeli society anticipates the return of four deceased hostages. However, the progression into Phase Two remains uncertain following Hamas's breach of the agreement—specifically, their substitution of a Palestinian body for that of the late Shiri Bibas—and the psychological torment inflicted on two hostages during the "ceremonies" Israel conducted. This breach led Israel to halt the release of over 600 prisoners, deemed terrorists, citing "Hamas's repeated violations, including the ceremonies that demean the dignity of our hostages" (Dan Senor, 01:26).

2. Hamas's Dual Strategy and Intentions

Amit Segal explains the paradoxical tactics employed by Hamas, highlighting their simultaneous efforts to incite Israeli rage and manipulate negotiations through hostage propaganda. He states:

"Hamas is horrified by the option that Israel would return to war." (Amit Segal, 03:39)

Hamas broadcasts propaganda videos depicting Israeli hostages pleading for their return, an attempt to pressure Israel into advancing to Phase Two. Simultaneously, their provocative actions abroad aim to galvanize Israeli public opinion against resuming conflict.

3. Israeli Public Opinion and Debate

The Israeli public remains deeply divided on the matter of hostages versus the continuation of military action against Hamas. Segal references a Channel 12 poll indicating that while a majority seeks the return of all hostages—even at the expense of resuming war and maintaining Hamas's governance in Gaza—a significant portion also desires a swift and decisive military response:

"30% want to do it now... and the other 65% say... we'll find an excuse to defeat Hamas." (Amit Segal, 05:45)

This internal debate is not founded on ideological differences but rather on tactical approaches to resolving the hostage crisis and neutralizing Hamas.

4. Regional and International Stakeholders’ Signals

The episode highlights the lack of unified messaging among key stakeholders, including Israel, Hamas, the United States, and Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Segal critiques former President Trump's proposal to evacuate Gaza's population, arguing that:

"The real idea behind it is... you have to fund yourself... but if you live in Gaza... the international community... pays for your cost of living." (Amit Segal, 08:11)

He further contends that such initiatives are ineffective as they inadvertently funnel resources to Hamas, exacerbating the conflict rather than resolving it.

5. US Involvement and Contradictory Statements

Dan Senor brings attention to statements made by Steve Witkoff, President Trump's Middle East envoy, who affirmed the continuation of Phase Two while simultaneously asserting that Hamas cannot be part of Gaza's future governance:

"Hamas certainly cannot be part of the government in Gaza." (Steve Witkoff, referenced by Dan Senor, 09:52)

Segal interprets this as an attempt to prolong negotiations without effectively integrating Hamas, ultimately aiming to delay further conflict resolution:

"What Witkoff really means is not phase two, but phase A2, which means prolonging the deal for yet another week." (Amit Segal, 10:22)

6. Prime Minister Netanyahu's Strategic Dilemma

Segal elaborates on Netanyahu's precarious position, balancing the imperative to secure hostages with the necessity to dismantle Hamas's operational capabilities. He notes historical precedents where Netanyahu and former Prime Minister Olmert failed to fulfill hostage return promises during conflicts, emphasizing a recurring pattern of incomplete resolutions:

"The end of the conflict cannot be agreed because Hamas would never agree to be expelled from Gaza and Netanyahu would never, ever whatsoever agree to end the war." (Amit Segal, 20:35)

Netanyahu's strategy appears to involve accepting partial deals to maintain public support while preparing for future military actions to fully eradicate Hamas.

7. Moral and Psychological Impact on Israeli Society

The conversation touches on the profound psychological toll the hostage crisis has taken on Israeli civilians. Amit Segal reflects on the pervasive sense of unease:

"Every single Israeli thinks there are hostages in Gaza that can't [be forgotten]." (Amit Segal, 17:12)

Dan Senor shares a personal anecdote illustrating the stark contrast in daily life, highlighting the eerie silence in marketplaces typically bustling with activity—a direct reflection of the ongoing trauma and uncertainty.

8. The Futility of Current Negotiations and Future Prospects

Segal argues that the current hostage exchange strategy is unsustainable, as Hamas views hostages as long-term bargaining chips to perpetuate their influence and delay further military action. He suggests that:

"In my opinion, what Witkoff really wants is to prolong the deal for yet another two, three, maybe even four weeks." (Amit Segal, 12:36)

When discussing the potential outcomes, Segal posits that a comprehensive resolution requiring both the return of hostages and the dismantling of Hamas's power is unlikely to be achieved simultaneously. He emphasizes the need for a fundamental shift in Palestinian education and ideology to prevent future conflicts:

"As long as they are educated, that every Jew is a future soldier and he should be killed with bare hands... if we don't change the education system... we'll find October 7th again and again." (Amit Segal, 28:47)

9. Concluding Insights

The episode underscores the intricate and often contradictory nature of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, compounded by regional politics and international interventions. Amit Segal concludes on a somber note, advocating for an end to the "culture of death" perpetuated in Gaza and calling for comprehensive educational reforms to foster peace. He asserts:

"We must put an end to this culture... if we don't change the education system... there won't be a peace in the Middle East." (Amit Segal, 28:47)

Dan Senor wraps up the discussion by acknowledging the bleak outlook while reiterating the need for ongoing analysis and dialogue.

Notable Quotes

• Amit Segal [00:00]: "The end of the conflict cannot be agreed because Hamas would never agree to be expelled from Gaza and Netanyahu would never, ever whatsoever agree to end the war."

• Amit Segal [03:39]: "Hamas is horrified by the option that Israel would return to war."

• Amit Segal [05:45]: "Hamas wants to use the strategic asset of Israeli live hostages... as a weapon, as a currency, in return to which he'll be able to stay in power in Gaza."

• Amit Segal [20:35]: "The end of the conflict cannot be agreed because Hamas would never agree to be expelled from Gaza and Netanyahu would never, ever whatsoever agree to end the war."

• Amit Segal [28:47]: "We must put an end to this culture of death that flourish one mile from our borders."

Conclusion

This episode of "Call Me Back - with Dan Senor" offers a comprehensive analysis of the fraught negotiations between Israel and Hamas, the divided Israeli public opinion, regional dynamics, and the overarching challenges in achieving lasting peace. Amit Segal provides invaluable insights into the tactical and moral dilemmas faced by Israeli leadership and society, emphasizing the urgent need for systemic changes to prevent the perpetuation of violence.

Transcript Reference: The timestamps correspond to the provided transcript sections for accurate attribution.