Podcast Summary: "The Middle East and the New World Order"

Podcast: Call Me Back with Dan Senor
Guests: Mark Dubowitz (Foundation for Defense of Democracies), Yonatan Adiri (ARC Media)
Date: January 25, 2026

Overview

This episode examines the dynamic and volatile state of the Middle East amid increased tensions between the US and Iran, shifting alliances among regional powers, and how these developments fit into the broader context of a rapidly changing global order. Dan Senor is joined by Iran expert Mark Dubowitz and geopolitical analyst Yonatan Adiri to unpack potential US military action, Israel’s evolving security posture, and the realignments among Middle Eastern and global players such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Turkey, India, and China.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Possibility of a US Military Strike on Iran ([06:03]-[10:40])

• Rising Likelihood of a US Strike:

  • Mark Dubowitz asserts that "the probability of a strike is growing," referencing President Trump’s warnings and military preparations, including the movement of a US carrier group into the region. ([06:03])
  • Israeli intelligence reportedly provided "smoking gun" evidence to the US that Iran had not stopped executing protesters, contradicting Iranian claims that they were complying with American demands.

• Likely US Targets If Strikes Occur:

  • Ballistic Missile Program: Iran’s missile infrastructure is considered target number one, especially given its threat to Israel, US forces, and Gulf allies ([07:53]).
  • Regime’s Repression Apparatus: The IRGC, Basij, and Ministry of Intelligence as key enforcers of internal repression and possible instruments for retaliation against the US and Israel.
  • IRGC Navy and Launchers: To blunt Iranian naval threats and reduce the risk of missile attack.

• Diplomatic "Price" for Iran:

  • Steve Witkoff, US envoy, publicly demands "zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, surrender of all enriched material to the IAEA, restrictions on ballistic missiles, and an end to terror proxies"—conditions seen as impossible for Iran to accept ([09:46]).

Notable Quote

“The price for that deal is zero uranium enrichment, full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program… The price has gone way up. There’s no way Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei could ever agree to those terms.” – Mark Dubowitz ([09:46])

2. Israeli Perspectives and Preparations ([11:06]-[20:45])

• Three Camps on Retaliation Strategy:

  • "Day 13" Camp: Advocates proactive strikes against remaining threats post-12 Day War.
  • "Sit Out" Camp: Prefers Israel stay on the sidelines unless directly attacked, drawing on Gulf War parallels.
  • "Go All In" Camp: Supports Israel escalating in coordination with the US if conflict ignites ([11:06]).

• Defensive Preparations:

  • High national alert and air defense readiness, following recent missile impacts in Tel Aviv ([19:03]).
  • Israeli analysis suggests Iran struggles to rebuild missile launch capacity, despite manufacturing more missiles.

• Human Rights Atrocity Confirmation:

  • Israeli-provided evidence reportedly shows over 33,000 protesters were killed by Iran’s regime in early January ([13:55]).
  • Yonatan notes receiving harrowing videos from Iranian sources, painting a picture of widespread repression ([13:14]).

Notable Moment

“[I] have a lot of family worldwide... These are very tough videos to watch. People being gunned down in the middle of the street… this is the dynamic that Yisrael reported today.” – Yonatan Adiri ([13:14])

3. Strategic Objectives & Cautions ([14:34]-[17:51])

• US Objectives with Strikes:
  • Enforce Red Lines: Showing credibility and consequences for violating American warnings, countering past failures like the Syria red line under Obama ([15:37]).
  • Strategic Military Goals: Degrading Iran’s missile capabilities, preferably via decisive US rather than Israeli action.
  • Support for Iranian Protesters: Demonstrating to Iranians that “U.S. assistance came… that we are with them.”

Notable Quote

“Enforcing American red lines matters. When you don’t do it... Putin realized that Obama was not serious... The United States should do [the strike], not Israel... we can do it better... Iranian retaliation will probably be lower.” – Mark Dubowitz ([15:37])

4. Saudi, UAE & Gulf Realignments ([28:15]-[36:05])

• Detriments to Israel-Gulf Normalization:

  • Discontent in Saudi Arabia towards Israel has been growing post-October 7, with complex factors affecting normalization ([28:15]).
  • MBS faces setbacks with Vision 2030, including economic shortfalls, oil price issues, and societal pressures ([29:10]).

• Saudi-UAE Tensions:

  • Mark and Yonatan discuss an intensifying rift—with the Saudis seeking stable central governments in the region, while the Emiratis back localized militias ([32:25]).
  • The schism is impacting regional dynamics and Israel’s standing, as both powers wrestle for influence in Yemen, Sudan, and Somalia.

Notable Quotes

“He’s trying to be Lee Kuan Yew and Martin Luther and Napoleon at the same time… each of them is a huge task.” – Yonatan Adiri on MBS ([29:10])

“There were a number of us in Washington… who said the U.S.-Saudi relationship was strategic… blowing up the entire bilateral relationship was geopolitical malpractice.” – Mark Dubowitz ([36:05])

5. Turkey’s Assertive Regional Role ([38:18]-[40:34])

• Turkey’s Neo-Ottoman Strategy:
  • Led by sophisticated diplomats like Hakan Fidan, Turkey aims for influence in Libya, Somalia, and Syria—forming a geopolitical "trident" ([38:32]).
  • Turkey is leveraging recent Israeli successes against Iranian proxies to expand its regional ambitions.

Notable Description

“I've recently referred to [Hakan Fidan] as a hybrid between Qasem Soleimani and Henry Kissinger.” – Yonatan Adiri ([38:32])

6. Wider Global Shifts: US, China, India & the New World Order ([40:34]-[49:13])

• Global Power Recalibration:

  • The US seeks to pivot resources away from the Middle East, with Israel remaining a “model ally” defined by its defensive and cooperative capabilities ([41:26]).
  • China, conversely, is deepening economic and strategic relationships in the region, “free-riding” on US security guarantees.

• India’s Expanding Role:

  • India is investing massively in naval power, working closely with Israel, and engaging more directly in Red Sea and Gulf security ([44:08]).

• Israel’s Model Ally Status and Economic Resilience:

  • The US administration increasingly holds up Israel as a template for “capable allies” globally ([48:35]).
  • Israel’s economic resilience, even amidst conflict, is deemed a key component of its strategic deterrence and alignment with US interests ([49:13]).

Notable Quotes

“They’re saying… we want you to be like Israel. We need more Israels in the world.” – Mark Dubowitz ([48:35])

Memorable Moments & Quotes with Timestamps

• [09:46] Mark Dubowitz: “The price for that deal is zero uranium enrichment... There’s no way [Khamenei] could ever agree to those terms.”
• [13:14] Yonatan Adiri: “People being gunned down in the middle of the street… [and] these type of things supposedly happening right now, within the regime’s jails…”
• [15:37] Mark Dubowitz: “Enforcing American red lines matters… when you don’t do it... Putin realized that Obama was not serious…”
• [29:10] Yonatan Adiri: “[MBS] is trying to be Lee Kuan Yew and Martin Luther and Napoleon at the same time. Each is a huge task.”
• [32:25] Mark Dubowitz: “[The Saudi-Emirati rift is] really bad for the United States… and it’s bad for Israel… creates opportunities for Turkey, Qatar, and Iran.”
• [38:32] Yonatan Adiri: “I’ve recently referred to [Hakan Fidan] as a hybrid between Qasem Soleimani and Henry Kissinger.”
• [48:35] Mark Dubowitz: “We want you to be like Israel. We need more Israels in the world.”

Important Timestamps

• [06:03] – Analysis of the rising probability of a US strike on Iran.
• [09:46] – US diplomatic demands and the impossibility of Iran agreeing.
• [11:06] – Israeli defense administration’s three camps on how to respond to Iranian retaliation.
• [13:14] – Evidence of mass killings by the Iranian regime.
• [14:34] – Strategic objectives behind a US military strike.
• [19:03] – Israeli national preparations and missile defense realities.
• [28:15] – Saudi domestic and regional strategy shifts; obstacles to normalization with Israel.
• [32:25] – In-depth on the Saudi-UAE split and impact on Israel.
• [38:32] – Turkey’s regional strategy and leadership.
• [41:26] – The Middle East’s strategic importance in American and Chinese global policy.
• [44:08] – India’s growing role in the Middle East and its partnerships.
• [48:35] – The US view of Israel as a “model ally.”
• [49:13] – Israel’s economic resilience as a pillar of strategic strength.

Conclusion & Takeaways

This episode provides an incisive look at the current state of Middle Eastern affairs, emphasizing:

• The imminent risks and careful calculations around a potential US-Iran clash.
• Shifting alliances and the recalibration of regional power, notably between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Turkey.
• Israel’s multi-level response—military, diplomatic, economic—and its emergence as the US’s “model ally.”
• The implications of global realignment, with China entering the region as the US deprioritizes it, and India quietly increasing its strategic footprint.
• The enduring significance of the Middle East for great-power competition, the future of regional order, and the lives of millions on the ground.

This episode is essential listening for anyone tracking Middle Eastern affairs, US foreign policy, and the broader tectonic shifts in global geopolitics.