Podcast Summary

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Episode: The Myth of World Order — with Bret Stephens
Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Dan Senor (Ark Media)
Guest: Bret Stephens (New York Times columnist, editor of the Superior Journal)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the shifting global geopolitical landscape and the growing perception that the longstanding international order is fragmenting or has already dissolved. Dan Senor and guest Bret Stephens discuss the implications of recent dramatic events—most notably the US capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East upheaval, a potential Chinese move against Taiwan, and rising protests in Iran. The conversation assesses whether we are witnessing a new world order, or merely a temporary crisis, and what this turbulence means for Israel, the Middle East, Europe, and the U.S. role globally.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Old Order” vs. the New Turbulence

• Stephens’ Thesis: There’s a myth about a stable, rule-based world order after World War II. In reality, there were always cracks, exceptions, and power plays—what’s different now is a return to naked power politics where the “rules” of engagement are more openly flouted.

  • Stephens: “American foreign policy [under Obama] was like a Victorian frock coat... With Trump, the clothes are off... you are seeing essentially the near nakedness of the factor of power in international relations.” (06:41)
  • Past U.S. interventions (Noriega 1989, Dominican Republic 1965) show precedents for recent Venezuela action.
  • Current global climate is “hotter” and requires new forms of deterrence.

• Trump’s Strategy vs. Predecessors:

  • Trump is signaling US hard power more aggressively, breaking with previous restraint.
  • Stephens argues this will deter, rather than encourage, authoritarian adventurism: “What I think Trump has actually done is signal to those countries, those major adversaries, that the United States is prepared to play by much tougher rules.” (08:18)

2. Is the US Setting a Precedent for Other Powers?

• Senor’s Counterpoint: US intervention could be seen by others (Russia, China) as legitimizing their own aggressive actions, e.g., war in Ukraine or moves on Taiwan.
  • Stephens: “What Trump has done has provided a fig leaf... but again that would be simply for propagandistic reasons.” (09:02)
  • US acted in Venezuela under some legal legitimacy (indictment, reward for arrest); contrast with Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.

3. Mapping the Global Reordering & Revisionist Powers

• Stephens outlines “revisionist regimes” as the main actors now shaping world order:
  • Russia: Trying to reverse the post-Cold War order (Ukraine).
  • China: Pressing on Taiwan, other disputed regions.
  • Iran: Had been trying to resurrect a “new Persian empire.”
  • US: Now “playing by tougher rules,” but unclear if it will expand into aggressive revisionism itself.
  • The key danger: “If this is really about entering the same competition...then we really are in a scary world.” (12:53)

4. The State of Europe: Weakening, Vulnerability and Possible Renewal

• Europe as “a garden without walls”—militarily and socially vulnerable.
  • Mass migration and Russian covert action cited as destabilizing forces.
  • Europe’s GDP share dwindling; weak will to self-defense.
  • Stephens: “Europe cannot expect to spend another century as the benefiting ward of benign foreign powers.” (15:27)
  • Admiration expressed for Poland and Finland: “Proximity to Russia increases one’s awareness of brute reality.” (16:23)
  • The need to learn from Israel’s resilience and willingness to fight.

5. Israel’s Example and the Middle East’s Centrality

• The Middle East remains energy-critical and an exporter of instability.

  • The “real battle” in the region is between moderates/modernizers (Tel Aviv, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman, Jeddah, Rabat) and “totalitarians and fanatics” (Tehran).
  • Middle East dynamics can’t be ignored even when US policymakers want to pivot elsewhere.

• On Turkey and Iran:

  • Turkey’s Erdogan has “Islamicized neo-Ottoman” ambitions: “It’s not just the sultanate, it’s the caliphate. And that really should worry us a great deal.” (21:22)
  • The prospect—cited via historian Bernard Lewis—of Turkey becoming the primary Islamist threat as Iran weakens internally.
  • On Iran: Major protests are growing, regime is paralyzed, key test will be whether military fractures.
  • Stephens: “The important story... is in Iran right now. I have a sense that this is going to grow... The big question... is whether this fire catches within the government itself and causes divisions.” (23:11–24:19)

6. Are There Still Any Global “Rules”?

• Stephens: “I don’t think there are rules, but the truth is there never really were rules.” (25:35)
  • Etiquette sometimes observed, but “where it tends to break down is when you have major players... flouting the rules and others... observing them to their increased disadvantage.”
  • The challenge: How to adapt to a world where adversaries ignore rules, without giving up on structure and order ourselves.

7. Evaluating Trump’s Approach: The Hard and Soft Power Equation

• Stephens (a longtime Trump critic) acknowledges:
  • Trump “understands power... hard power and... the perception of power” (28:31), as with the Maduro operation and previous moves in Jerusalem, Iran, and Israel-Gaza.
  • But he often neglects “soft power”: credibility, alliances, and moral authority, needed for long-term American influence.
  • On negotiating: Trump is instinctive and non-legalistic, able to “create his own momentum.” (31:19)
  • Foreign leaders should note: “When they create winning circumstances, they might find the President is on their side.” (31:58)

8. Risk of Great Power War & The “Mood Music” of the Times

• Stephens: The 2020s “mood music” resembles the 1930s—aggressive dictators, timid democracies.
  • Trump’s recent actions could either avert or precipitate a great power war, depending on the response.
  • “I’m keeping my fingers crossed that that’s the version of reality we’re looking at, in which we are averting great power wars rather than hurdling towards them. But we are definitely in an era that is more fraught, more dangerous...” (33:10)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “American foreign policy… under Obama, was like a Victorian frock coat. Under a whole set of prim niceties... With Trump, the clothes are off… you are seeing essentially the near nakedness of the factor of power in international relations.”
  — Bret Stephens (06:41)

• “What I think Trump has actually done is signal... that the United States is prepared to play by much tougher rules. And I think, if anything, it’s gonna serve more as a deterrent than as an encouragement.”
  — Bret Stephens (08:18)

• “Europe cannot expect to spend another century as the benefiting ward of benign foreign powers...”
  — Bret Stephens (15:27)

• “What’s happening to Europe is that they are beginning to exist in Israel's world: with powerful foes without and also potential problems within.”
  — Bret Stephens (17:56)

• On Turkey: “It's not just the sultanate, it’s the caliphate. And that really should worry us a great deal.”
  — Bret Stephens (21:22)

• “I don’t think there are rules, but the truth is there never really were rules. There was etiquette that was sometimes observed, but often observed only in the breach…”
  — Bret Stephens (25:35)

• On Trump: “Trump understands power. He understands hard power. And he understands not only the uses of hard power, but the perception of power.”
  — Bret Stephens (28:31)

Key Timestamps for Major Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |-----------|---------| | 00:04–03:00 | Introduction: recent geopolitical events, Israeli protests, US–Venezuela operation | | 05:32–08:26 | Old order vs. new: history, US interventions, analogy of power “clothing” | | 08:26–11:00 | Does US action legitimize rivals’ aggression? Comparing US/Russia/China moves | | 11:00–13:43 | Map of great power reordering and “revisionist regimes” | | 13:43–17:52 | Europe’s decline, challenges, and lack of will—allusions to Poland, Finland, and Israel | | 19:10–22:31 | The enduring importance of the Middle East; Turkey and Iran | | 22:31–25:12 | Iran: status of protests, regime fragility, what determines success of uprisings | | 25:12–27:44 | Are there still any “rules” in world affairs? Myth vs. reality | | 27:44–32:27 | Trump’s strengths and blind spots; hard & soft power; his negotiator’s instinct | | 32:27–34:27 | Risk of great power war; possible futures—averting war or tumbling toward it |

Conclusion & Takeaways

• World order is fracturing: The old framework of international rules is giving way to a more openly competitive environment dominated by “revisionist” powers and naked displays of force.
• The U.S. is recalibrating: Trump’s administration, for all its controversy, represents a shift to harnessing hard power, for good or ill. Maintaining a successful balance will depend on coupling this force with moral leadership (“soft power”).
• Europe is fragile: Urgent need for renewal, self-defense, and a new ethos, possibly inspired by Israel’s model of resilience.
• Middle East remains central: Struggles between modernizing states and retrograde regimes continue to shape global outcomes; Iran and Turkey are pivotal.
• Risk and opportunity: We’re living in a danger-filled but dynamic moment; the actions of the US and its allies in the coming years could either restore a measure of order—or lead the world into greater instability.

For listeners seeking a deep, nuanced, and sometimes provocative perspective on the world’s shifting power structures, this episode is an essential guide—grounded in history, but acutely focused on the present and future.