Podcast Summary: "The Road to Riyadh - with Nadav Eyal"

Podcast Information:

• Title: Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
• Host/Author: Ark Media
• Description: Presenting the challenges and dilemmas facing Israelis to a global audience.
• Episode: The Road to Riyadh - with Nadav Eyal
• Release Date: February 3, 2025

1. Introduction to Current Challenges

The episode begins with Nadav Eyal outlining the three critical issues currently at play in the Middle East:

1. Iran Normalization with Saudi Arabia
2. The Future of Gaza
3. Hostage Negotiations and Releases

Eyal emphasizes the delicate balance required to navigate these issues without triggering further conflict:

"It's up to the Trump team for Netanyahu, Dermer, the Saudis, the UAE and everyone else to try and pull something off here that gets to the second phase of the deal, gets normalization, hits Iran..." [00:00]

2. Hostage Releases and Their Impact

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the release of hostages held by Hamas. On February 2nd, Israel saw the release of multiple hostages, including:

• Yarden Bibas (35)
• Keith Siegel (65)
• Ofer Calderon (54)
• Five Thai Citizens

Eyal details the emotional and societal impact of these releases:

"This is essential for the Israeli society that these hostages return. And this is for me, beyond any sort of breakthrough. This is essential for the Israeli society." [30:00]

He highlights the personal stories of hostages, showcasing their resilience and the trauma endured during captivity. For instance, Arbel Yehud's solitary captivity and Gadi Moses' determination to maintain dignity:

"Gadi Moses, who's 80 years old... he used to walk in that room about four miles a day just to keep shape. And he would write a diary that the captors took from him just before the release." [09:00]

3. Personal Stories of Hostages

The podcast delves into specific narratives, providing a human face to the abstract numbers:

• Emily Damari: Lost two fingers during the October 7th attack and later refused to be released before Keith Siegel, showcasing profound selflessness.

  "Emily Damari... was given the opportunity to bypass the release order because of her father's position, but she declined, saying, 'I'm willing to stay, and I'm asking you to stay in captivity so Keith should go first.'" [13:00]

• Amit Susner: Demonstrated extraordinary courage by resisting Hamas captors and was saved by an IDF spotter, Leary Albagh.

  "Amit told her [Leary], 'I don't know if he would have shot me, but you just saved my life. For me, you saved my life.'" [16:30]

These stories underscore the mental and emotional fortitude of the hostages, serving as both personal and national symbols of resilience.

4. Phase Two of the Hostage Deal and Regional Diplomacy

Moving beyond the immediate hostage situation, the conversation shifts to the second phase of the deal, which involves:

• Normalization of Relations with Saudi Arabia
• Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Issue
• Rebuilding Gaza

Eyal outlines the complex negotiations and the high-stakes diplomacy required:

"These are the three balls in the air right now... it's up to the Trump team for Netanyahu, Dermer, the Saudis, the UAE and everyone else to try and pull something off here..." [32:50]

He discusses Netanyahu's recent visit to Washington and the involvement of key figures like Ron Dermer and Steve Wytkoff in brokering these high-level talks.

5. Political Dynamics and Possible Outcomes

The episode explores the political intricacies surrounding the negotiations:

• Netanyahu's Coalition: Balancing the demands of the far-right elements within his government with the broader strategic goals.

  "I think that the Netanyahu government might not survive this. And I think this entire thing can explode." [42:00]

• U.S. Involvement: The pivotal role of former President Donald Trump in facilitating negotiations and his administration's commitment to mediating the deal.

  "Because Trump wants to see a historic peace agreement in the region because this is part of his legacy." [35:00]

• Normalization Challenges: Particularly the discussions around annexation of settlement blocks in the West Bank, a contentious issue that could make or break the deal.

Eyal posits that the success of phase two is heavily reliant on Trump's strategic influence and the ability to secure necessary support from both Israeli and Saudi factions.

6. Potential Annexation and U.S. Senate Approval

A critical topic is the annexation of Israeli settlement blocks in the West Bank and the required U.S. Senate approval for defense pacts with Saudi Arabia:

• Historical Context: Referring to the George W. Bush administration's stance on settlements, Eyal connects past policies to current negotiations.

  "If Trump is going to employ the full force of the United States in the region, then we can see wonders happening in that sense." [35:00]

• Senate Dynamics: The necessity of securing 67 Senate votes for defense treaties, highlighting the political hurdles in the U.S.

  "There's a lot of complexity here... how that reality translates into 67 votes in the United States Senate is not easy to see from here to there." [48:00]

7. The Centrality of Gaza in Peace Efforts

Gaza remains the core issue in achieving lasting peace:

• Demilitarization Demands: Israel's insistence on a demilitarized Gaza free from Hamas control.

  "Israel demands that Gaza will be demilitarized and it demands that the leadership of Hamas, and by leadership, I also mean thousands of people of Hamas fighters will be expelled from the Gaza Strip." [30:00]

• Humanitarian Concerns: Proposals like the mass migration of Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt are discussed, though met with skepticism regarding their feasibility.

  "This is going to be a long. A long way ahead for her [Arbel Yehud]." [08:00]

8. Conclusion: Hope Amidst Uncertainty

The episode concludes on a hopeful yet cautious note, recognizing the progress made in hostage releases and the potential for diplomatic breakthroughs, while also acknowledging the ongoing risks and uncertainties:

"These moments of hope in Israel are very much to the credit of this administration. And the ultimatum made by President Trump giving a sense of urgency to all of the sides, it's really a great testament to how policy can make a difference in people's lives and save lives for these people." [50:00]

Nadav Eyal emphasizes the essential nature of hostages' return for Israeli society and the critical role of international diplomacy in securing a peaceful future.

Notable Quotes:

• “These are people who are telling us... they suffered near starvation.” — Nadav Eyal [04:32]

• “I'm free and I'm normal.” — Gadi Moses upon release [10:32]

• “Amit told her... you just saved my life.” — Amit Susner about Leary Albagh [16:48]

• “This is essential for the Israeli society.” — Nadav Eyal [30:00]

• “The people of Israel, we want to thank you.” — Hostages upon release [23:00]

Key Takeaways:

1. Hostage Releases: The release of hostages is a significant step toward healing for Israeli society, highlighting stories of resilience and sacrifice.

2. Diplomatic Efforts: High-level negotiations involving the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel are pivotal in shaping the region's future.

3. Normalization with Saudi Arabia: Achieving normalization is contingent upon addressing critical issues like the Iranian nuclear threat and the demilitarization of Gaza.

4. Political Complexities: Internal Israeli politics and U.S. Senate approval pose substantial challenges to advancing the peace process.

5. Gaza's Future: The roadmap to peace remains uncertain, with the future of Gaza being a central issue that requires careful and sustained diplomatic efforts.

Conclusion:

"The Road to Riyadh" episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current geopolitical landscape affecting Israel and the broader Middle East. Through personal narratives of hostages and insightful discussions on diplomacy and politics, Nadav Eyal and Dan Senor shed light on the complex interplay of resilience, negotiation, and strategic alliances that are shaping the path toward peace and stability in the region.