Call Me Back – with Dan Senor

Episode: The Strategy to Re-Open Hormuz – with Nadav Eyal
Date: March 19, 2026
Host: Dan Senor
Guest: Nadav Eyal, Senior Analyst, Yediot Ahronot

Episode Overview

This episode closely examines the ongoing crisis around the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following significant Israeli and US military action against Iran. Dan Senor is joined by Nadav Eyal to break down the consequences of these actions for Israel, the Gulf states, global energy markets, and prospects for reopening the vital shipping route. The discussion also delves into the evolving Israeli strategy targeting Iranian leadership, the controversy around US war policy, and how all these developments are being received internationally.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Regional Impact

• Backdrop:

  • After a massive US-Israeli air campaign against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz—a critical oil and LNG corridor for 20% of the world’s energy supply—is effectively closed.
  • Despite US naval dominance, fewer than 10 ships are passing daily, all at Iranian discretion, with global energy prices and insurance markets in turmoil (01:21).
  • Iran’s tactic is characterized as extortion rather than outright closure.
    • Quote: “They’re not blocking it, they’re controlling it. They’re extorting.” – Nadav Eyal (01:21, 11:39).

• Latest Israeli Attack:

  • The Israeli Air Force strikes Iran’s South Pars gas field (shared with Qatar) in what’s described as a coordinated signal, not a full-scale attack. Intent is to pressure Iran over its energy sector and point out, “If you want to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, there’s going to be a price.” ([07:45], [08:11]).

• Gulf States’ Responses:

  • Qatar condemned the attack harshly, fearing Iranian retaliation on its own infrastructure. Other Gulf states quietly acknowledged foreknowledge, understanding the necessity to pressure Iran’s energy assets ([11:39]).

Mechanisms of Iran's Control and Western Response

• Iran’s Tactics:

  • Mining the Omani side of the strait to push shipping closer to Iranian-controlled waters.
  • Electronic jamming/signal scrambling keeps tankers immobilized.
  • Drones, missiles, and speedboats further deter passage ([14:47]).

• US and Israeli Preparedness:

  • Both were prepared for Hormuz’s closure—it was wargamed well in advance. Assertions that they were surprised are dismissed as “preposterous.”
    • Quote: “The person I was speaking with was a security official and his decision to weigh into this discussion is…extremely meaningful. He said these are professionals…they absolutely knew and prepared to the possibility that the strait will close.” – Nadav Eyal ([14:47]).

The Question of Ghost Fleet and Selective Passage

• Iran’s ‘Ghost Fleet’:

  • Used primarily to keep supplying energy to China and India, circumventing Western sanctions via off-market deals and “rebranding.”
  • “Some of these ships are part of the so-called ghost fleet of the Iranians that actually supplies oil to China. China gets 11% of its own oil [this way].” – [17:53]

• Selective Passage:

  • Only Chinese and some Indian tankers are allowed to cross under Iranian approval, after requests to Tehran for passage rights ([18:19]).

International and Political Dynamics

• US & NATO Allies’ Involvement:

  • President Trump calls for European/NATO involvement in forcibly reopening the Strait.
  • European/NATO responses remain tepid, largely due to domestic unpopularity and skepticism of the war, despite their need for Middle Eastern energy ([20:21]).

• Political Consequences in the West:

  • Rising global energy prices are already impacting Asian and developing countries, with possible future ramifications for Western economies (e.g., rising coffee prices cited as an example) ([11:39]).

Israeli Strategy and Iranian Regime Decapitation

• Targeted Killings:

  • A major Israeli policy change now authorizes hits on Iranian and Hezbollah leaders without special approval—a move described as “unprecedented.”
  • Recent Israeli operations killed Ali Larijani (Iran’s National Security Council Secretary, considered a central post-Khamenei figure) and the head of the IRGC’s Basij force, the regime’s backbone of repression ([23:21]).

• Objective:

  • Israel is not officially seeking regime change (“we don’t know how to do that”), but they’re systematically removing leadership, weakening the regime, and targeting the apparatus enforcing repression.
    • Quote: “The objective is to push back the strategic threats to the state of Israel. And this is being done methodically. We have a lot of work to do. Even if the regime survives…its capabilities have been so degraded that [it] will be occupied…with reconstruction, not with destroying Israel…” – Nadav Eyal quoting senior Israeli military official ([24:04]).
  • Cooperative, if not coordinated, pressure with internal calls for Iranian people to rise against the regime, shifting the incentive structure within Iran ([28:39]).

War’s Popularity and US Domestic Politics

• Resignation of US Counterterrorism Director:

  • The high-profile resignation of Joe Kent is discussed; he accused the administration of “dual loyalty” and being goaded into war—a charge the host flatly dismisses.
    • Quote: “This is actually not uncommon… because you have an official that objects to the war and even worse, uses these tropes to explain why… it’s ultimately Nadav only interesting if it’s representative of a broader trend. …Support for what Trump is doing in Iran is off the charts, 80s, 90s, 90%.” – Dan Senor ([33:22]).

• US Political Calculus:

  • Trump retains overwhelming support in the Republican base, giving him significant latitude to continue the campaign. As Senor notes, "Even the weakest polls give him more than 80%..." ([38:26]).

What Happens Next? Prospects for Re-Opening Hormuz

• Duration of Crisis:

  • Most Israeli and US officials believe the closure will last a few more weeks at most.
    • “The Israelis don't think that this is going to last for very long. They understand it's a matter of a week, of two weeks. ... The general assessment is that when the US wants it to be over, even this Iranian radicalized regime will understand that they better stop shooting.” – Nadav Eyal ([35:53]).

• Re-Opening the Strait:

  • A major operation is needed to fully reopen; not expected within a week—possibly longer.
  • Some countries (e.g., China, Pakistan, India) are relatively prepared due to stockpiling and prior experience (Ukraine war), but others face critical shortages ([36:57]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Control:

  • “They’re not blocking it, they’re controlling it. They’re extorting.” – Nadav Eyal ([01:21], [11:39]).

• On Ghost Fleet:

  • “You will see them going off the transmitter just before the Strait and reappearing as though this was a gateway to another dimension after the Strait.” – Nadav Eyal ([18:19]).

• On Israeli Objective:

  • “Even if the regime survives…its capabilities have been so degraded that [it] is going to be occupied mainly with reconstruction, not with destroying Israel, not with supporting the proxies in the region.” – (Quoting a senior Israeli military official) ([24:04]).

• On Gulf State Response:

  • “Everybody knew that this is going to happen…The United States and Israel are starting to signal to Iran that they cannot continue with their policy of closing the Strait of Hormuz going completely unpunished.” – Nadav Eyal ([11:39]).

• On Trump’s Political Standing:

  • “His polling is overwhelmingly unprecedented, off the charts among Republicans… Support for what Trump is doing in Iran is off the charts, 80s, 90s, 90%.” – Dan Senor ([33:22]).

Important Timestamps

• [01:21] – Introduction to Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iran’s tactics.
• [02:25] – News update: Israeli strikes, Gulf leadership reactions, Israeli casualties.
• [07:44] – Dan Senor begins discussion with Nadav Eyal.
• [08:11] – Details on Israel’s strike on South Pars gas field and its strategic intent.
• [11:39] – Gulf states’ responses and further breakdown of regional energy impacts.
• [14:47] – Explanation of Iran’s mining, electronic warfare, and why US naval power hasn’t reopened Hormuz.
• [17:53] – Discussion of Iran’s “ghost fleet” and who is moving oil through the Strait.
• [20:21] – US appeals for Western and NATO support – limited response and political analysis.
• [23:21] – Israeli decapitation of Iranian leadership, focus on Ali Larijani and Basij commander.
• [28:39] – Israeli approach to regime destabilization and prospects for change.
• [33:22] – The Kent resignation, anti-Semitic tropes, and analysis of US domestic opinion.
• [35:53] – Israeli and US assessments for the duration and likely closure period of the Strait of Hormuz.
• [36:57] – Nadav Eyal’s prospect for reopening Hormuz, energy market implications.

Summary Takeaways

• Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz is hurting global energy markets and regional stability; Western power has yet to forcibly undo this.
• Israeli and US strategy is shifting to directly pressure Iran’s energy sector and systematically remove regime leadership.
• Despite massive naval deployments, real risks (mining, jamming, targeted attacks) prevent commerce from restarting.
• The outcome is highly uncertain, but most decision makers expect a resolution within weeks, not months.
• The atmosphere is volatile: regime change is not a stated Israeli objective but increasingly likely as the regime is “thinned out,” even as remaining elements grow more radical.
• US political support for this war remains exceptionally high within the current administration’s base, giving the White House latitude for continued operations, even as energy and political pressures rise abroad.

For listeners, this episode provides a granular, real-time breakdown of the unprecedented international, military, and energy challenges stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — and the multi-front campaign Israel and the US are waging to reopen it.