Podcast Summary: "The Trump Doctrine"

Call Me Back with Dan Senor – Guest: Walter Russell Mead
Date: December 22, 2025

Overview

This episode dives deep into President Trump's newly released National Security Strategy, dissecting its doctrine, priorities, and worldview. Host Dan Senor sits down with renowned foreign policy scholar and writer Walter Russell Mead to analyze the profound shifts this doctrine proposes for American foreign policy. The discussion spans U.S. relations with Europe, the Western Hemisphere, and the Middle East, with a special focus on Israel’s evolving regional position, the resurgence of anti-Semitism, and emerging global trends to watch in 2026.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. A Paradigm Shift: The Trump Doctrine’s Priorities

[04:58 – 07:37]

• Manifesto, Not Just Strategy: Mead describes the Trump doctrine as "more manifesto than strategy," capturing the administration’s bold ideological ambitions.

  “It is more manifesto than strategy document, expressing what its authors hope are the ideas that will guide American foreign policy for the next generation and giving us their interpretation of Mr. Trump's underlying worldview.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [05:15]

• Western Hemisphere First: The doctrine marks a strategic pivot — the Western Hemisphere is now the U.S.’s top foreign policy priority, displacing longstanding transatlantic focus.

• Europe in Decline: Trump’s team critiques Europe sharply, warning that unaddressed social, economic, and military trends could make key European countries unreliable allies in 20 years.

2. The Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine

[08:42 – 13:03]

• Reviving and Expanding Monroe: The Trump administration’s policy invokes the Monroe Doctrine’s anti-interventionism and Teddy Roosevelt’s corollary, now updated to justify U.S. intervention if misgovernance in Latin America leads to “floods of immigrants” or narco-state conditions.
• Venezuela in Focus: Venezuela is singled out as a primary target of this doctrine, representing failed governance, mass migration, and foreign power intervention.

  “Venezuela is right in the crosshairs of the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. ... It would be very hard for them to back down from this without a real diminishment of prestige.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [12:38]

3. Great Power Rivalries and U.S.-China Relations

[13:03 – 14:32]

• Conventional Realpolitik: Underpinning the document is classic power-balancing — preventing any rival from dominating a region, particularly keeping China in check.
• Diplomatic Double Standard: Europeans feel slighted by the U.S. being “polite to China, polite to Russia, and then you kick us in the teeth.” This perceived warmth toward adversaries but coldness to allies intensifies European anxiety.

4. The Middle East: No Longer Front and Center

[14:32 – 17:41]

• Victory Lap on Iran: The Trump team claims credit for weakening Iran, leading to decreased regional threat perceptions.

• Realignment of Allies: With the Iranian threat receding, countries like Saudi Arabia are less inclined to align tightly with Israel or the U.S.

  “Then Israel did everybody the favor of knocking Iran down several pegs. And that has had the paradoxical effect of making everyone else less aligned with Israel and the US may feel just less worried about the Middle east and it reverts to just don't cause trouble.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [15:34 & 00:09]

• Syria, Turkey, and Diverging Interests: On Syria, U.S. stabilization goals might conflict with Israeli security concerns, especially regarding rising Turkish influence.

5. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Shifting Middle Eastern Dynamics

[17:41 – 20:56]

• Turkey’s Ambitions: Erdogan seeks to fill the regional vacuum, using Syria as leverage to extend Turkish power.
• Saudi Concerns: Saudis are wary of Turkey emerging as the dominant Sunni power in the region but lack clear alternatives.
• US Weapons Sales: F35 sales to Turkey and potentially Saudi Arabia are discussed, but Israel is more worried about Turkey’s real capabilities than Saudi Arabia’s.

  “The Saudi armed forces have a history of buying really expensive gear, but not a history of using it in battle in a way that changes outcomes in major conflicts.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [20:56]

6. Oil, Energy, and the Impact of AI

[20:56 – 23:44]

• AI Making Oil Production More Efficient: Technological advances may boost domestic and Chinese shale output.
• The Enduring Role of Oil: Despite talk of U.S. energy independence, oil still factors heavily in U.S. geopolitics, especially related to global investments and strategic leverage.

7. Is Trump an Isolationist?

[23:44 – 26:58]

• Not Quite: Mead argues Trump is not an isolationist but rather seeks “an ideological retreat and a focus on...actual national interests.”
• Active, Not Passive: Trump is willing to use force and intervene, but he rejects costly, idealistic nation-building.

  “There's nothing in the world that Donald Trump doesn't want to be in the middle of.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [25:12]

8. The Resurgence of Anti-Semitism in the U.S. and Europe

[26:58 – 34:53]

• Historical Perspective: Mead notes that anti-Semitism has ebbed and flowed with surges in immigration and economic insecurity — this is not America’s first encounter with it.
• Europe’s Muslim Population and Social Change: Niall Ferguson’s data on Muslim demographics in the UK underscores changing social landscapes, but Mead stresses that the American experience with diversity differs markedly due to more varied sources of immigrants and greater economic integration.

  “The differences between the American migration path and the European migration path are large. ... We produce more jobs for young people and we have more social mobility.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [34:54]

9. Trends to Watch for 2026

[37:09 – 39:18]

• European Alienation: Watch for increasing strains in U.S.-Europe relations due to the doctrine’s tough stance.
• Western Hemisphere Intervention: Whether the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine will be implemented is a key question.
• China and the Unknowns: U.S.-China relations remain complex and unpredictable.
• India-Pakistan Dynamics: Renewed attention on Pakistan, its alignment with Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and the proliferation of nuclear technology could destabilize the broader region.

  “All of these things...are going to complicate India's life, Israel's life, and America's life. ... Pakistan is reminding us...they're all the same. They're connected.”
  — Walter Russell Mead [39:01]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Trump Doctrine vs. Strategy:
  “It is more manifesto than strategy document…” — Walter Russell Mead [05:15]
• On Venezuela:
  “Venezuela is right in the crosshairs of the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.” — Walter Russell Mead [12:38]
• On Trump and Isolationism:
  “There's nothing in the world that Donald Trump doesn't want to be in the middle of.” — Walter Russell Mead [25:12]
• On Anti-Semitism’s American History:
  “If you go back and you look at it, you can see some consistencies. Number one, antisemitism in the United States has never been absent. And it has definitely had moments of real intensity, but it was always kind of behind antisemitism in Europe and obviously more recently the Middle East.” — Walter Russell Mead [27:45]
• On U.S.-Europe Relations:
  “You were polite to China, you were polite to Russia, and then you kick us in the teeth...” — Walter Russell Mead [13:53]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Introduction & Trump’s New Doctrine: [04:58 – 07:37]
• Western Hemisphere Focus & Monroe Doctrine: [08:42 – 13:03]
• China and Europe: [13:03 – 14:32]
• Middle East & Israel’s Dilemma: [14:32 – 17:41]
• Turkey, Saudi Arabia, F35s: [17:41 – 20:56]
• Oil, AI, and Global Energy: [20:56 – 23:44]
• Isolationism Debate: [23:44 – 26:58]
• Anti-Semitism and Demographics: [26:58 – 34:53]
• Trends for 2026: [37:09 – 39:18]

Conclusion

Walter Russell Mead’s analysis frames the Trump Doctrine as an ambitious and disruptive overhaul of American foreign policy — seeking hemispheric dominance, critiquing allies, and recalibrating the U.S. role in a rapidly changing world. Mead draws illuminating parallels to history to explain resurgent anti-Semitism, shifting alliances, and looming global uncertainties. This episode is a must-listen for anyone striving to understand the new contours of U.S. strategy and its reverberations for Israel and the world.