Podcast Summary

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Episode: What Happens If the U.S. Strikes Iran? (with Karim Sadjadpour & Nadav Eyal)
Date: January 14, 2026
Summary Prepared By: [Expert Podcast Summarizer]

Overview

This episode explores the dilemmas and possible repercussions facing Israelis and the wider world amid escalating tensions with Iran, following the regime’s mass killing of protesters and speculation about a potential U.S. military strike. Host Dan Senor is joined by Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace) and ARC Media contributor Nadav Eyal. Together, they dissect the realities on the ground in Iran, the policy debates raging in Israel and the U.S., and the limited, often fraught, options available to outside actors seeking to support the protest movement or coerce the embattled Iranian regime.

Key Discussion Points

1. Current Situation in Iran: Suppression and Uprising

• Country-wide communications blackout: Internet, cellular, and satellite access have been throttled to 1% connectivity, deliberately to shield regime violence. Some limited Starlink usage exists.
  Quote: “It’s over six days now that the entire country has had only 1% connectivity...the regime does this very deliberately so it can massacre people en masse in the dark.” – Karim Sadjadpour (06:24)
• Mass killings of protesters: Official numbers cite 2,000 deaths in two weeks, but independent estimates are much higher (5,000–10,000+).
• Protest movement’s morale: Protesters are demoralized and cut off from the outside world, and divided internally on next steps or hope for U.S. support.
  Quote: “When they hear President Trump make these statements of solidarity, they may not be getting it. ...I think people are unclear about what his intentions are.” – Karim (07:50)

2. U.S. Policy & Response Debate

• Trump’s threats: President Trump has repeatedly warned Iran of consequences for killing protesters but so far has not visibly acted, prompting skepticism inside Iran.
  Quote: “By my count, Dan, President Trump has now made eight threats...at this point, then I think people inside Iran are demoralized.” – Karim (07:50)
• White House divisions: U.S. is debating kinetic (military) vs. non-lethal (cyber/disruptive) actions. Israeli intelligence expects a U.S. response, but the type and scale are unclear.
• Limited military options: Both guests agree, there’s no “silver bullet” solution for rapid or simple regime change.

3. Regime Motivations and Risks of Retaliation

• Regime incentives: Internal division exists in Israel about how close the regime is to collapse; some believe it is on its last legs, others see it as still firmly in power.
• Retaliation logic: Some in Israeli circles believe the Iranian regime might welcome external confrontation, hoping it will stifle protest and unify the public (“rally-around-the-flag”).
  Quote: "[Confrontation] can lead, I think, the regime thinks, to a rally to the flag..." – Nadav Eyal (12:59)
• Karim’s caution: External war might hasten regime collapse by humiliating a failing autocracy rather than consolidating it (see: Soviet-Afghan precedent), and may simply deepen polarization.
• Regime’s survival mindset: Khamenei is “homicidal but not suicidal.” If faced with existential threats, has shown willingness to back down; any retaliation likely to be limited and performative.
  Quote: “He’s homicidal, but he’s not suicidal. ...I’m skeptical that if there is any type of intervention in Iran that they will retaliate in a way which is anything other than performative.” – Karim (26:10)

4. Comparison to Arab Spring and Earlier Uprisings

• Differences with Syria: Iran is a 2000-year-old nation-state, whereas Syria’s fragmentations enabled civil war. Iranian opposition is nationalistic, not armed or Islamist.
• Role of security forces: Stability and regime endurance hinge on the internal cohesion of the Revolutionary Guard and security services.
• Egypt comparison limits: U.S. leverage over Iranian security elites is negligible; unlike in Egypt, there are no direct lines of communication, substantially reducing chances for coordinated pressure or defection.
  Quote: “We have virtually no leverage over Iran...there’s no communication.” – Dan Senor (38:51)
  Quote: “At the end of the day, human beings are human beings…80% [of Iranian officials] are charlatans who are going along for political and economic experiences.” – Karim (39:21)

5. International and Israeli Policy Calculations

• Israeli preparedness and wishes: Israel wants regime change and is primed to support the Iranian opposition, but also wary of any “internal change” within the regime that leaves real power structures intact.
• Military readiness: Israelis are on high alert for retaliation and may wish for a regime misstep as pretext for unfinished business (e.g., targeting missile production).
• Intelligence “on the ground”: Reports of U.S. influence/subversion operations in Iran, but Karim is skeptical about substantive foreign involvement.
  Quote: “I don’t really give much credence to it. ...the U.S. presence or U.S. influence in Iran is virtually negligible.” – Karim (23:16)

6. What Leverage Remains—Sanctions, Symbolism, and Information

• Sanctions & isolation: Calls for stronger symbolic measures, such as withdrawal of ambassadors and targeting family members of regime elites living abroad, but little faith in transformative effect.
• Disrupting the “digital iron curtain”: Both guests see restoring internet access via tech solutions (e.g., Starlink) as the most crucial near-term intervention. Quote: “Unfettered Internet access has become like oxygen for citizens around the world.” – Karim (32:14)
• Cyber operations: Cited as viable, given past sophistication (e.g., Stuxnet), but logistical and political challenges abound.

7. Dynamics of Protest and Regime Stability

• Revolutions & regime survival: True revolutions are rare and depend heavily on splits in military or security services—a condition not yet present in Iran.
• Charlatans vs. ideologues: The regime has shifted from mostly true believers to opportunists in positions of power—hinting at possible cracks in the future. Quote: “At the beginning of the revolution, the regime was composed of 80% ideologues and 20% charlatans. [Now] it’s the reverse.” – Karim (39:21)

8. Public Sentiment and the Pahlavi Factor

• Reza Pahlavi’s symbolic role: For the first time, protest chants include explicit support for the exiled Shah’s son, Reza Pahlavi, even in conservative and regime-heartland regions. Quote: “Reza Pahlavi for protesters symbolizes what I call almost this forward looking nostalgia...a desire to make Iran great again.” – Karim (41:28)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• On the blackout and regime violence:
  “It’s over six days now that the entire country has had only 1% connectivity... massacre people en masse in the dark.” – Karim (06:24)
• On President Trump’s credibility:
  “President Trump has now made eight threats… at this point… people inside Iran are demoralized." – Karim (07:50)
• On the regime's possible motives for war:
  "As far as the regime is concerned...people will feel even less secure...can lead, I think the regime thinks, to a rally to the flag." – Nadav (12:59)
• On cautioning against importing the Arab Spring analogy to Iran:
  “Iran and Syria are just fundamentally different countries... I’m skeptical that what we’re seeing now in Iran is going to devolve into a full scale civil war...” – Karim (21:10)
• On importance of splitting security forces:
  "The thinking should be to impact the calculations of these security forces inside Iran." – Karim (36:10)
• On the 'charlatanization' of the regime:
  "At the beginning of the revolution, 80% were ideologues and 20% charlatans. Now it's the reverse." – Karim (39:21)
• On Pahlavi and nostalgia:
  “Long live the Shah… Pahlavi is the symbol of that forward looking nostalgia… a desire to make Iran great again.” – Karim (41:28)

Segment Timestamps

| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | 06:24–07:36 | Situation in Iran: Suppression and Mass Killings | | 07:36–09:28 | Effect of Trump’s threats and perceptions in Iran | | 11:03–12:40 | Israeli intelligence assessment of US response | | 12:59–14:52 | Debate over regime stability and incentives for conflict | | 14:54–18:29 | On whether outside war aids regime survival or hastens collapse| | 18:45–23:16 | Reports of US influence operations & notional civil war | | 26:10–27:59 | Supreme Leader mindset & limits to regime retaliation | | 28:06–30:53 | Israeli military posture and need for US green light | | 32:14–34:48 | Non-military options and the need for internet access | | 36:10–39:21 | Impact of outside actors and security service splits | | 41:28–42:58 | Surge of nostalgia for Reza Pahlavi among protesters |

Tone & Style

The episode presents deeply informed, measured analysis anchored in direct experience and frank discussion. Both guests are cautious, skeptical of easy solutions, and emphasize the complexities and unique features of the Iranian situation. The mood is urgent but realistic—there is a strong sense of empathy for the Iranian people and awareness that outside actors’ room for maneuver is constrained.

Conclusion

This episode offers a timely, nuanced examination of the historic and immediate stakes surrounding Iran’s uprising and the international response, particularly from the US and Israel. Listeners come away informed about the dangers, uncertainties, and moral complexities on all sides, as well as the hard limits of what even well-intentioned outside power can achieve when a well-armed regime fights for survival behind a “digital iron curtain.”