Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
Episode: Will Israel do it alone? - With Nadav Eyal
Release Date: June 21, 2025
Host: Ark Media
Guest: Nadav Eyal, Senior Analyst for Yedioth Ahronot

Introduction to the Current Conflict

In this intense episode of Call Me Back, Dan Senor engages in a critical discussion with Nadav Eyal about the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Amidst ongoing missile barrages from Iran, the conversation delves deep into the implications for Israel's security, military strategies, and the potential role of the United States in the conflict.

Recent Iranian Missile Attacks and Their Impact

Nadav Eyal provides a detailed account of the recent missile attacks launched by Iran against Israel. On June 20, multiple missiles targeted key locations, including Ramadgan, Holon, and Soroka Medical Center—the largest hospital in southern Israel.

Nadav Eyal [00:08]: "...the missile that struck Soroka Thursday morning hit one of the floors that had been evacuated the previous night."

These attacks not only caused significant destruction but also highlighted vulnerabilities in Israel's defense systems. Notably, some missiles carried cluster bomb warheads, posing broader threats by scattering multiple explosive devices over wide areas.

Nadav Eyal [00:53]: "The IDF has announced that at least one of the ballistic missiles within the barrage that hit Soroka was carrying a cluster bomb warhead..."

Mood in Israel Amidst Ongoing Attacks

Eyal paints a somber picture of Israeli society grappling with prolonged conflict. The initial surge of military success has given way to fatigue and uncertainty about the war's duration and outcome.

Nadav Eyal [05:18]: "It's somber to an extent...many Israelis are thinking about the summer, the losses, their loved ones fighting or lost, and not knowing how this will end."

Despite the grim situation, there remains a strong consensus on the necessity of defending Israel's security, though there's a palpable desire for clarity on the conflict's trajectory.

Israel's Air Defense and Military Strategy

The discussion delves into the effectiveness of Israel's air defense systems, such as Arrow and THAAD. While these systems have successfully intercepted a significant number of incoming missiles, advancements in Iranian missile technology and tactics have posed ongoing challenges.

Nadav Eyal [08:29]: "We are seeing barrages that are much more limited in scope right now...but they do manage, some of them do manage to penetrate the defense systems that Israel installed."

Eyal emphasizes the strategic focus of the Israeli Air Force on targeting Iranian missile launchers and infrastructure, leveraging real-time intelligence and precision strikes to mitigate the threat.

Nadav Eyal [09:32]: "The strategy is to take away their missiles, attack their inventories, attack the launchers, make it very difficult for them."

Potential U.S. Involvement and Its Implications

A significant portion of the conversation centers on the possibility of U.S. intervention. The White House press secretary indicated that President Trump would decide on U.S. involvement within two weeks, balancing military action against potential diplomatic negotiations.

Dan Senor [00:53]: "On Thursday, the White House press secretary said that President Trump will decide whether or not to join the war against Iran in the next two weeks."

Eyal discusses how U.S. involvement could influence Israel's military strategies and the broader geopolitical landscape. However, uncertainty remains regarding the administration's stance and decision-making process.

Nadav Eyal [26:03]: "I think it's about unilateralism...this is what Israel wants, but they also want the U.S. to carry it out with higher certainty of success."

Iran's Strategy and Negotiation Stance

Iran appears to be leveraging diplomatic channels, seeking negotiations with European powers while resisting American demands for complete surrender. Eyal assesses that Iran's strategy may be aimed at buying time and enduring prolonged conflict without reaching a favorable deal.

Nadav Eyal [22:19]: "The Iranian strategy is basically trying to drag this into negotiations...they are saying we won't negotiate under fire."

Eyal critically analyzes Iran’s reluctance to capitulate, attributing it to entrenched notions of honor and resistance, which hinder pragmatic decision-making despite the dire circumstances.

Can Israel Finish the Conflict Alone?

The episode culminates in a pivotal question: if the U.S. opts not to intervene, can Israel achieve its war aims independently? Eyal expresses skepticism about Israel's ability to single-handedly dismantle Iran's nuclear capabilities with absolute certainty.

Nadav Eyal [36:28]: "Israel can try to tackle the Fordow problem, but it has no certainty that it can do that effectively. Only the U.S. can do it with almost 100% certainty."

He underscores the complexities involved in such a mission, including technical challenges and the potential for prolonged conflict without U.S. support.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

Dan Senor and Nadav Eyal conclude that the future of this conflict heavily depends on U.S. decisions and the evolving strategies of both Israel and Iran. The potential for prolonged engagement or decisive action remains uncertain, emphasizing the high stakes for regional and global stability.

Nadav Eyal [36:02]: "They might not go for an agreement, but they will have less of an ability to develop nuclear weapons."

As the situation unfolds, the interplay between military action and diplomatic negotiations will likely shape the course of events, with profound implications for Israel's security and international relations.

Notable Quotes:

• Nadav Eyal [05:18]: "It's somber to an extent...many Israelis are thinking about the summer, the losses, their loved ones fighting or lost, and not knowing how this will end."

• Nadav Eyal [09:32]: "The strategy is to take away their missiles, attack their inventories, attack the launchers, make it very difficult for them."

• Nadav Eyal [26:03]: "I think it's about unilateralism...this is what Israel wants, but they also want the U.S. to carry it out with higher certainty of success."

• Nadav Eyal [36:28]: "Israel can try to tackle the Fordow problem, but it has no certainty that it can do that effectively. Only the U.S. can do it with almost 100% certainty."

This episode of Call Me Back offers a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted conflict between Israel and Iran, providing listeners with an in-depth understanding of the strategic, political, and humanitarian dimensions at play.