Podcast Summary: "Will Israel Take Gaza City?"

Podcast: Call Me Back – with Dan Senor
Guest: Nadav Eyal (Senior Analyst, Israel)
Date: August 18, 2025
Episode Theme:
A deep dive into the dilemmas facing Israel as it weighs a military takeover of Gaza City, amidst unprecedented domestic dissent, complex international pressure, strategic confrontation with Iran, and the fate of remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Main Theme & Purpose

Dan Senor and Nadav Eyal examine Israel's critical decision point: whether to launch a full military operation to conquer Gaza City or attempt a renewed hostage deal with Hamas. The episode unpacks operational, political, humanitarian, and diplomatic challenges, set against the background of mass protests in Israel, evolving US and Chinese involvement in the region, and the enduring trauma and division within Israeli society.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Israeli Domestic Unrest & Hostage Priority

• Mass Protests:

  • On August 17, over 1 million Israelis took part in a nationwide strike and massive demonstrations, calling for a hostage deal and opposing the government's planned Gaza City offensive. (01:03)
  • Almost half a million people gathered in Tel Aviv’s Hostage Square—the largest demonstration in Israeli history, as estimated by organizers.

• Societal Division:

  • Hostage families are not unanimous; a minority criticizes the protests, fearing they may strengthen Hamas's negotiating position.
  • Quote:
    “This is the number one priority and it should be prioritized right now.” – Nadav Eyal (04:52)
  • Counterpoint:
    Protests could bolster Hamas's bargaining power, per some officials and PM Netanyahu. (05:24)

• Mental Resilience Among Hostages:

  • The story of Hirsch Goldberg-Polin and his quote from Viktor Frankl, "He who has a why can bear with any how," became a mantra for hostages, aiding their survival. (03:34)

2. Israel, Iran, and China—Emerging Strategic Concerns

• Iran’s Capabilities Post-War:

  • Iran’s nuclear rebuild sidelined due to massive destruction from Israeli and US attacks; focus now shifts to rebuilding air defenses and ballistic missile capabilities—potentially with Chinese support. (06:01–07:00)
  • Quote:
    “If the Chinese indeed are going to…allow the Iranians to reacquire their ability and expand it in scale, that’s going to be a big issue for Israel and potentially for the Europeans and for the United States.” – Nadav Eyal (09:14)

• Shift in Regional Influence:

  • Iran allegedly humiliated diplomatically in Lebanon; its clout in Beirut is receding. (10:54–11:33)
  • A billion dollars spent by Iran on Hezbollah and Lebanon’s reconstruction, but local resentment rises.

• Great Power Rivalry:

  • Israel warns China not to help rearm Iran, directly appealing to Jerusalem’s strategic partnership with Washington.

3. The Gaza City Dilemma: Military Operation vs. Hostage Deal

• IDF Planning & Reluctance:

  • Upcoming IDF chiefs of staff meeting to finalize tactics for capturing Gaza City, termed by generals as "the most complex problem…since 1948." (13:32)

  • Operational Challenges:

    • Extremely dense urban environment (1–1.2 million civilians).
    • Hostages held among the civilian population.
    • International law and humanitarian obligations front and center.

  • IDF Resistance:

    • IDF is notably against the plan, fearing:
      • Inability to evacuate civilians sufficiently.
      • Risk of US intervention to halt the operation mid-way.
      • Enormous international backlash.
      • The legal and moral limits—evacuation cannot become de facto expulsion (i.e., war crime). (17:28–21:36)
    • Quote:
      “I’ve never heard so much resistance within the defense officials and the army to the plan…” – Nadav Eyal (17:28)

• US Stance:

  • President Trump currently offers "full support" for the operation but also pushes to end the war and secure the hostages’ release. (21:36–22:05)
  • Some see these two positions as interlinked—pressure on Hamas (“Gaza City is Hamas’s Berlin”) might bring them back to the negotiating table.

• IDF vs. Government Goals:

  • IDF tried to remove the “get the hostages back” goal, arguing it's impossible to capture Gaza City and save the hostages.
    • Quote:
      “If this is the case…take out the goal of getting the hostages back from the goals of the war.” – Nadav Eyal paraphrasing the IDF chief of staff (22:56)

• Hostages as Operational Constraint:

  • The prime limiting factor on IDF maneuvers is the constant risk to the hostages’ lives.

4. Humanitarian Crisis & Narrative Battles

• Food Crisis Assessment:

  • Israel stopped all aid and food to Gaza on March 2, leading to severe but uneven food shortages—prices for staples like flour soared in some areas. (32:48)

  • Quote:
    “I think it was a terribly stupid and to some extent cruel idea…if you stop all aid and food to 2 million people…prices of food are going to skyrocket…” – Nadav Eyal (32:48)

  • Tensions between the “food stockpiling” argument (plenty of aid sent during ceasefire) and the reality of poor distribution, price gouging, and famine-like conditions in enclaves.

  • International media—major outlets like the NYT and Washington Post—accused Israel of “mass starvation,” though data and Israeli intelligence challenge aspects of that narrative.

    • KOGAT data: 66–133 starvation/malnutrition deaths reported; identities often unverified and many had pre-existing conditions. (31:38–32:12)

• Humanitarian Perception vs. Reality:

  • The starvation narrative, even if misrepresented, has "locked in" and caused substantial PR and diplomatic harm to Israel.
  • Quote:
    “If you are pressuring Hamas through usage of food, you will be accused in starving the population…this is just an excuse to extend the war.” – Nadav Eyal (40:57)

5. Diverging Israeli Public Opinion

• JPPI Poll Data:

  • When asked about ending the war in exchange for the hostages (even if Hamas remains in power):
    • 54% support the deal/ending hostilities.
    • 37% oppose; 9% are unsure. (44:49–46:30)
  • Deep division—especially among Israeli Jews (almost 50:50 split).

• Danger of Division:

  • Both options (a major offensive or keeping Hamas in power for a deal) are perilous for a country so divided.
  • Quote:
    “It’s also a big decision to effectively keep Hamas in power while the country’s so divided on that too. There’s a huge swath of the population that is not okay with that.” – Dan Senor (48:19)

6. Strategic and International Costs

• Diplomatic Fallout:

  • Israeli foreign minister Gidon Sa’ar warns:
    • “Whatever you’re going to get from this operation…doesn’t equal the level of strategic and diplomatic damages that we’re incurring right now around the world.” (27:26)
    • Explicit concern about the cost, in international standing, of being "sucked into the black hole called Gaza."
    • Fears of symbolic anti-Israel gestures escalating in Europe (e.g., new Holocaust memorials for Palestinians).

• The “Lose-Lose” Trap:

  • Israel may act cautiously but still gets maximal criticism; “chased out of town and eat the stinking fish.” (25:33)
  • Attempts to satisfy international norms do not shield Israel from worst-case accusations.

7. The Path to a Deal: Has Leverage Paid Off?

• Endgame Scenarios:

  • Some analysts and hostage advocates argue only military pressure will extract serious concessions from Hamas.
  • However, escalation equally risks hostages’ lives and greater global condemnation. (43:01)
  • Quote:
    “What I’m hearing is constantly…the people who want to get the hostages back, they’re saying you can’t do this without having some pressure on Hamas.” – Nadav Eyal (43:12)

• Hostage Deal Momentum:

  • Assessment in recent days suggests movement toward a possible deal as military pressure on Gaza City grows. (59:24)
  • US engagement—constant diplomatic and intelligence pressure—remains key to getting any agreement.

8. Hamas’s Calculus

• Internal Arguments:
  • Hamas in Gaza (led by Haddad) resists deals despite local suffering, emboldened by perceived international momentum in their favor. (60:44)
  • Quote:
    “It’s Haddad who’s in Gaza seeing hunger…he’s the man saying: don’t get an agreement too quickly because we’re standing.” – Nadav Eyal (61:20)
  • Hamas exploits the international narrative for leverage, complicating Israel’s options.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Gaza is the most complex problem that the IDF has faced since its inception in 1948.” – unnamed Israeli general, via Nadav Eyal (13:32)
• “He who has a why, can bear with any how.” – Hirsch Goldberg-Polin (03:34)
• “Whatever you’re going to get from this operation or this war…doesn’t equal the level of strategic and diplomatic damages that we’re incurring right now around the world.” – Gidon Sa’ar, Israeli Foreign Minister (27:26)
• “You need to be rational about this…or it’s the slippery slope argument of someone who goes into the casino and loses $1,000 and then says, ‘maybe I should take a mortgage… and lose the rest.’” – Nadav Eyal (55:52)
• “Israel may act with caution…still gets maximal criticism.” – Paraphrased by Dan Senor and Nadav Eyal (27:04–27:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------| | Mass protest and context of Israeli society | 01:03–04:52 | | Hostage priorities and societal divisions | 04:52–05:48 | | China-Iran strategic threat discussion | 06:01–10:54 | | Iran's humiliation and shifting Mideast influence | 10:54–13:25 | | IDF planning for Gaza City; operational and humanitarian complexity | 13:32–16:21 | | Cabinet vs. military conflict over operation goals | 17:28–25:33 | | Humanitarian crisis debate, narrative management, aid cut-offs | 29:50–40:57 | | Israeli public opinion & poll discussion | 44:19–48:29 | | International public relations fallout, Gidon Sa’ar warning | 27:26–28:54 | | Exposing the “lose-lose trap” of international criticism | 25:33–27:26 | | Moving toward hostage deal as military pressure increases | 59:24–60:44 | | Hamas internal debate on dealmaking, impact of international support | 60:44–62:40 |

Conclusion & Tone

The episode’s tone is urgent, sober, and analytical, featuring both personal anecdotes and clinical breakdowns of data and events. The conversation is unsparing about mistakes made by Israeli policymakers, sympathetic (but not uncritical) toward Israel’s predicament, and relentless in questioning both military and diplomatic options. It closes on a tentative note of optimism—recent intelligence indicates movement toward a possible deal—while emphasizing continuous US mediation as essential and underscoring that nothing is inevitable: both Israel and Hamas retain agency, but the risks, to both sides and to the broader region, are immense.