← Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
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- [00:04]
Dan Senor
You are listening to an art media podcast.
- [00:09]
Amit Segal
There might be a version of the famous American Lend and Lease operation from World War II in which in order to tackle his isolationist part of the party and the administration, the then president of the United States landed his Western allies the equipment, the military equipment to fight the fascist regime. Now here's the thing. Maybe Israeli pilots will use B2 that would be lent to them from the US Army. This is option that I wouldn't rule out. It takes only one bomb to destroy for do right. Bear it in mind.
- [00:59]
Dan Senor
It's 9:00am on Sunday, June 15 here in New York City. It is 4:00pm On Sunday, June 15, in Israel, where Israelis are reeling from the deadliest night for Israeli civilians since October 7th. Last night, two massive barrages of missiles from Iran left 13 Israelis dead and over 200 wounded. Four are still missing. The first barrage occurred around 9pm on Saturday night and targeted Israel's north. One missile hit the Arab town of Tamra, east of Haifa, killing four women, a mother, her two daughters and another relative. The second barrage targeted central Israel. One missile struck a residential building in Batyam, killing six people, including boys aged 8, 10 and 18. As we record, three people are still missing. The IDF just recovered a body from the rubble and is searching for people who may be trapped underneath the rubble. Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force has continued to land major blows against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck Shahran, Tehran's main gas depot, in one of Iran's biggest oil refineries in the Char Re.
- [02:12]
Amit Segal
Dan, I have to leave to the. There is a siren going on. Okay, it's 10 minutes.
- [02:18]
Dan Senor
Okay, fine. All right. I'm reading the introduction here to my episode with Amit Segal, who I haven't introduced yet, but was waiting for me to get through the introduction, and then a siren ran off and he had to go seek shelter. So I'm going to continue reading the introduction and then Amit will be back in a few minutes and we'll start our conversation. Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force has continued to land major blows to Iranian nuclear military facilities. Overnight, the Israeli Air Force struck Shahrain, Tehran's main gas depot and one of Iran's biggest oil refineries, igniting massive fires in those areas. The Israeli Air Force also hit two Iranian energy sites, more nuclear infrastructure in Iran's Defense Ministry headquarters. We've also received news that Ali Shamkhani, one of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's top advisers and the former national security chief in Iran, has died after sustaining severe injuries in an Israeli strike on Friday. One of the big questions at this moment, if not the only question, is will the US Join Israel's offensive against Iran and put an end, or an end for the time being to Iran's nuclear program? On Saturday, President Trump announced that if Iran attacks the U.S. it will experience, quote, the full strength of the U.S. military. But will it take an Iranian attack on America for the US to get involved? Joining us to discuss last night's Iranian attack and the possibility of US Military action against Iran is. Call me back. Regular Amit Segal, senior political Analyst for Channel 12. All right, Amit, I see you now back in your seat, ready to record back from the shelter. So thank you for returning. And most importantly, I'm glad you returned.
- [03:58]
Amit Segal
Safely, safe and sound. I have to tell you a story, by the way, then. When we bought a house, my wife and myself, in Jerusalem, it was built in 1989, so it's the last building to be built in Israel with a shelter. Today, there is a different system of.
- [04:14]
Dan Senor
Safe rooms, meaning not like the traditional shelter. It's, it's. There's safe rooms.
- [04:18]
Amit Segal
Exactly. No, very thick walls. Very, very protected. And we thought, what would we put here? It was September 2023, so we put all the luggage that we didn't have enough time to unpack. Two weeks passed and October 7th came. And since then, it's the busiest room at home.
- [04:35]
Dan Senor
Yeah. My mother, who's 87 years old, she's gonna kick me virtually. Cause she's in Jerusalem for saying her age. She just turned 87, but she's doing great. She lives in Jerusalem, in the Baca neighborhood, actually, not far from you. And she, the safe room for her building is her kitchen. Wow. So whenever the sirens go off, everyone from the building has to come into her kitchen. So this is like either a Jewish mother's nightmare or Jewish mother's dream because she's like baking for everyone and keeping everyone well fed.
- [05:02]
Amit Segal
I see.
- [05:03]
Dan Senor
Anyways, Amit, I want to just first get a snapshot of what has happened over the last couple days. Can you detail how many Iranian projectiles have penetrated Israel's defense systems? Where do they land, what their impact was like? Just give us a sense of what's been happening in Israel.
- [05:19]
Amit Segal
So Iranians had, give or take, 2000 ballistic missiles before the war. Israel destroyed or eliminated some 20%, 25%. So they're left with 15, 1600, out of which they have filed so far, something like 450. And if we count. So we have something like 10 ballistic missiles that actually penetrated Israel's most sophisticated anti missile system, which cost the lives of at least 14 Israelis altogether. 11 tonight and three on Friday night.
- [05:57]
Dan Senor
And in terms of the damage, what parts of Israel have been most hard hit?
- [06:01]
Amit Segal
Central Israel. I'll give you an example. There was one ballistic missile that hit Batyam. It's a bit southern to Tel Aviv. This single ballistic missile destroyed 9 to 20 buildings. Something between 9 to 20 buildings will have to be fully destroyed.
- [06:19]
Dan Senor
You mean fully taken down. Meaning they can't be built back as is. They have to be totally razed and then rebuilt.
- [06:24]
Amit Segal
Exactly. Another 40 buildings will have to be renovated. And the total amount of people who will have to find a new house is 742only from a single ballistic missile. It's like the Niroz Kibbutz or Berish. So one ballistic missile actually evacuates or takes the home of almost 1,000 Israelis.
- [06:50]
Dan Senor
Okay. And in terms of the Iranians and Iran specifically, to what extent have they recovered from Israel's first wave from the surprise attack last Thursday or not?
- [07:02]
Amit Segal
In a sense, they haven't recovered yet. Well, the idea behind the Israeli surprise attack was to actually avoid or prevent the Iranian reaction. That was actually pre written by Ayatollah Khamenei. The plan was that once Israel attacks Iran, a thousand ballistic missiles would be fired towards Israel at the order of the senior figures in the Iranian Air Force. What Israel did was to actually create a fake phone call for 20 members of the Air Force senior staff, thus calling them to a specific bunker in Tehran and killing them with missiles. So there was no one to give the order. Additionally, covert agents of Mossad fired drones and missiles from trucks across Iran and actually destroyed hundreds of ballistic missiles. So there wasn't enough ballistic missiles to shoot and there was no one to give the order. What happened since have happened since then is that Khamenei nominated or promoted new figures. They gave the order, but what we see is a smaller scale attack and it's crucial. Why? Because there is a limit to the scope, scope of attack that our anti air ballistic missile systems can actually handle simultaneously. Let's say the number is 50. So the 51st ballistic missile will hit and penetrate the system and so does the 52nd, 53rd and 54th, et cetera. So the idea was to have number of thousands of casualties. Just multiply one ballistic missile with seven victims and 800 homeless people and multiply it by, let's say 500. That was supposed to be be the Iranian reaction to the Israeli Attack.
- [08:50]
Dan Senor
Amit, you are an astute observer of Israel and Israeli society. How do you think the Israeli public is responding to this new reality? This is a new world. If October 7th was a new world, this is a new new world.
- [09:03]
Amit Segal
Right. And I think the level of support for the Israeli operation against Iran is the highest that I have ever seen in my lifetime. And I'll explain. On October 7, the support for Israel, for the war in Gaza was, I don't know, 80%. There was an outrage at the government that failed. Now when the government is taking the government, and of course the IDF have taken the proper measures, and not only they were not surprised, but they surprised the enemy. So the support is even bigger, even higher than this. And I'll give an example. My grandmother was born in London and she spent the blitz in London. She was 12 to 17 years old. Yes. And she always told me the stories about how Londoners took all the damage at night and then went to work in the mornings. And I think what we see today in Israel, it's not the same scale, of course, but the atmosphere, the vibes are the same.
- [10:02]
Dan Senor
It's interesting. A friend of mine who's at a startup in the Tel Aviv area said to me, this is before the Iranian attack, just based on the Houthi missiles. There was a Houthi attack a couple weeks ago and like 2 million Israelis were up at 3am that night, you know, in the middle of the night in their shelters and their safe rooms and their mamas. And this guy said to me, he's like, what other country? Like 2 million of our citizens are up in the middle of the night dealing with this attack. This is again before the attacks from Iran, the counter attacks we were on. And we're all at work the next morning, and we're back at our startups and we're back like a business, you know, we're all sleep deprived and we're just doing what we do. And you're. I think what you're describing is an even more intense version of that.
- [10:42]
Amit Segal
I have three children, ten, six and two and a half. And my two and a half child woke up this morning and told me I had a strange dream. I dreamt that there was silence. Now there were three sirens at night. It became to the level in which they are sleeping in the shelter and just thinking it was a bed dream.
- [11:01]
Dan Senor
There are tragically some pretty awful losses of life over the last couple of days. You wrote about them in your newsletter from your sense and sense of the people you're talking to in the security establishment and around the Prime Minister's office. Are they surprised by how much has broken through in Israel? We've, you know, the number of missiles that have actually penetrated Israeli airspace and landed in civilian areas and caused the kind of damage that we've seen.
- [11:28]
Amit Segal
Well, before the decision was taken, the estimation was something between 800 and 4,000 casualties dead Israelis. So I know it's tragic what happened in Batya and in Tamra and Ramadan altogether, but it's behind, it's under the lowest estimation prior to the operation. I'll have to explain. As long as Iranians keep shooting something between 75 and 150 ballistic missiles a night, it definitely means that within seven to 12 days they will run out of ballistic missiles. And it's dramatic how many ballistic missiles they shoot because if they shoot only 10 a night, our systems can actually handle it. So they must shoot this barrage of dozens of ballistic missiles every night. So the more days are passing, the less ballistic missiles they have while Israel can still escalate 2, 3, 4 levels above what we are doing as we speak. I'll give you a few examples. To actually attack Bandar Abbas port, which accounts for 85% of the Iranian economy. To attack the natural gas fields, the oil fields, to eliminate the Khamenei, the Ayatollah, the Iranian Ayatollah, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, without targeting civilians, of course, like Iranians do.
- [12:52]
Dan Senor
Okay, so I want to ask you, I want to get a sense of what you know about what has been accomplished at least. Last night Israel dealt devastating strikes from what we understand, on Iranian military and strategic facilities, including energy, economic infrastructure. And as far as I can tell, the Israeli Air force has cleared the path to Iran and is dominating skies at least over Tehran and maybe beyond Tehran and larger parts of the country. Can you just summarize the result of what happened last night?
- [13:23]
Amit Segal
Yes. Well, Israel is seven days ahead of schedule of what the IDF had planned before. I'll give you a few examples. In 2012, for instance, the calculation was that 40 to 50 airplanes and their staff are to be shut down over Iran. None of this has happened. The idea was that it would take seven days only to take care of the anti aircraft systems in Iran. It ended In I think 26 hours. So now we are running ahead of the schedule, which allows the IDF to do much more and much faster than it had planned to do in the first place.
- [14:03]
Dan Senor
Okay, I want to talk about the Iranian nuclear program. It's discussed on this podcast Many times in the past. Iran's nuclear program is distributed deep and wide across Iran. And obviously the big focus is Fordo, where what is left of the Iranian nuclear program is deep, deep, deep and mountainous. Bunker protection, very hard to penetrate. From what we've been told by Israeli capabilities. To the best of your understanding, if there was a progress bar hovering above this mission, how much of this program across the board and then we'll get into Fordo, how much of the program, the Iranian nuclear program has been destroyed.
- [14:43]
Amit Segal
We are at phase three out of 10, give or take, when it comes to the nuclear program. But we're in the last phase of the attack. And I'll explain. The idea was first of all to take the entire aircraft system and then to handle the ballistic missile program and then to take down the leadership, the military leadership of Iran. It has been done already. Now, when we reach the point of attacking the real thing, the hotspots of the Iranian nuclear program, we are still at the very beginning, Natanz was attacked and almost destroyed. Isfahan was heavily damaged. You are right about Fordu. Fordu is very protected under a huge mountain in an isolated part of Iran. And there are those scientists that take care of actually putting together the bomb. Now, more than 50% of the engineers, the scientists that have dealt with this thing are already dead. This is crucial because this is the knowledge. There was a phrase then that claimed that it doesn't really matter if you kill or if you destroy the equipment as long as Iranians still have the knowledge. Now, a good deal of the knowledge lies in ruins or in gravestones across Tehran. So we are still at the very beginning of the end of this campaign.
- [16:11]
Dan Senor
What's your sense when you say beginning of the end? So timing wise, I know these things are hard to predict or forecast.
- [16:16]
Amit Segal
If the US enters the campaign, I would say 48 hours. As long as it's Israel, it's going to give or take two weeks. And there can be complications. For instance, if something dramatic happens in Israel, I don't know, 100 Israelis, God forbid, would be killed in an Iranian attack. It would alter the programs. This is one thing. What happens if international community intervenes? This is a second thing. What happens if five pilots are taking hostages, etc. Etc. But if the US enters this campaign, it can end in 48 hours with an utter destruction of the Iranian nuclear program that had disturbed the world and Israel for the last 25 years.
- [16:58]
Dan Senor
Okay, so let's talk about that. There are two names that matter the most. In trying to answer that Question, will the US enter? Those two names are Donald Trump and Diego Garcia. Meaning the President makes a decision and the US has capabilities at Diego Garcia that could be deployed, that can penetrate Fordeau. So can you first explain what that means? What does the US have that Israel doesn't and that Israel needs, to put it short, B2.
- [17:29]
Amit Segal
This is exactly what the US has and the IDF doesn't. Diego Garcia actually hosts the several B2 bombers that can attack Iran way faster and way more decisively than Israel. One bomb from one B2 bomber actually takes or destroys Fordu completely and destroys the rest of Natanz and Isfahan. So it takes only 1, 2, 3 flights of B2 from Diego Garcia to actually end the rank nuclear program. Now here's the thing. I'll take a risk here and I'll say that the United States of America would attack the Iranian nuclear program. As far as I know, as far as I understand, this is the route. The way to Tehran is open and for Trump, this is a success. I mean, all the risks were taken by Israel. Israel dismantled Hezbollah, Hamas, preventing regional war, then paved the way, cleaned the skies for the aircraft, and now he just has to score. Additionally and more important than this, in my opinion, there is another option that when I heard it for the first time, I thought it was April 1st joke, because I heard it on April 1st. And this is that there might be a version of the famous American lend and lease operation from World War II in which in order to tackle his isolationist part of the party and the administration, the then President of the United States lended his Western allies the equipment, the military equipment to fight the fascist regime. Now here's the thing. Maybe Israeli pilots will use B2 that would be lent to them from the US Army. This is option that I wouldn't rule out. It takes only one bomb to destroy.
- [19:25]
Dan Senor
Fordu, meaning that the US will basically give the Israelis the equipment to do it themselves.
- [19:31]
Amit Segal
Exactly.
- [19:31]
Dan Senor
Okay.
- [19:32]
Amit Segal
It takes only one bomb to destroy Fordu.
- [19:34]
Dan Senor
Right.
- [19:35]
Amit Segal
Bear it in mind.
- [19:36]
Dan Senor
So let me just. I basically agree with you, but your take that Israel has done the most daring and risky operations already and will continue to do so. And so this allows the US to kind of come in at the back end while the US has been more involved than people realize or people had realized initially. This allows the US to come in in the back end and really seal the success. That's one take and we can get into. Why I do agree with you and I think directionally that's where things are heading. However, if you wanted to play the contrarian take, which is from President Trump's perspective, this whole operation has been a good cop, bad cop strategy and that Trump ultimately wants a deal with Iran. And Trump was persuaded by Prime Minister Netanyahu that they're playing you. And we're down to the 60 days that you had set. And they've completely done a rope, a dope strategy. While they are continuing to enrich uranium, the Iranians at weapons grade levels, while they are activating their weapons group to figure out how to weaponize the enriched uranium, actually create the warhead that could deliver a nuclear bomb, all this is happening. It's not just Israel's that's seeing it, it's the US Intelligence community that's seeing it. And even most surprisingly, it was the IAEA that was seeing this. And so Netanyahu was telling President Trump, you're gonna wake up one day and Iran's gonna have a nuclear bomb. And you're gonna still be talking about Steve Witkoff's round 17 of talks. And it's like time will have passed us by. So the Netanyahu basically said to Trump, let us do this, let us do this operation. And even if you wanna get to a deal, it'll actually create, you know, give some teeth to the possibility of, to your negotiating strategy. We, Israel, will be bad cop. And you tell the Iranians, I've got a ticket out of hell for you, and my ticket out of hell for you is come back to the negotiating table. I'll be in a much weaker position. That would make the case against the US Helping with Fordo.
- [21:26]
Amit Segal
Right. But first of all, I think it's not a binary thing of either the US would attack or not. We see an axis that stretches from doing nothing, which is definitely not the case, to actually sending B2 bombers from Diego Garcia. But there are many things in between. I'll give you an example. What happens if the United States does nothing militarily but just sets the new threshold or the new barrier in which they say that in the new negotiations between Wytkov and Karachi, Norman, whenever it will take place, if Karachi survives this campaign, the beginning point is the point where the Israeli campaign ends, thus meaning that every attempt, every Iranian attempt to recover what had been destroyed during the Israeli attacks would be interpreted as a reason for the US to engage. This is one option. Second, the land and list that I mentioned. And there are more options. For instance, what happens if President Trump would adapt? What Ambassador Huckabee have been saying over the last few weeks, that there are 700,000American citizens in, in Israel.
- [22:39]
Dan Senor
So I just want to explain what you mean and what Ambassador Huckabee said. What Huckabee is saying is, and he's by the way, this is not the first time he said this. He said this during the Yemen when the US cut the deal with the Houthis. There are 700,000Americans living in Israel, most of which are dual citizens, meaning they're citizens of the United States and Israel. But many of them are also just US citizens. They're there for whatever reason. 700,000.
- [23:03]
Amit Segal
My mother included.
- [23:04]
Dan Senor
Your mother included. Okay, there you go. And my mother, by the way, and your mother and my sister and my sister's kids and my, my brother in law. Right, we can go on. So 700,000 out of a population about 10 million people. That's a lot.
- [23:17]
Amit Segal
Yes, absolutely. And then at some point President Trump would say, I don't know, two American citizens were killed, 12 were injured. We are going to retaliate. But I have to say, Dan, that I find the President Trump response fabulous. Well, President Trump, when he says, we had nothing to do with this operation, dear Iranians, and now we offer you to come back to the negotiation table, he uses the Iranian method, the proxy method. That said for years, we have nothing to do with the Houthis, we have nothing to do with Hamas or Hezbollah, we just want to negotiate. Now the American proxy, AKA Israel, it's not exactly proxy, but something similar attacked Iran. And now with his charmest voice, President Trump says, I had nothing to do with it. Let's negotiate right smart.
- [24:12]
Dan Senor
In terms of the prime minister, the people around him, how are they interpreting or following the debate inside the United States specifically, and I think the debate is overstated, generally over interpreted about those around the president who are advocating the US get more directly involved and those around the president who are, what we call, we put in the restrainer camp, which are those who are advocating for minimal or no US Support for this. How worried is the Prime Minister's team as this war potentially drags on and there's increasing pressure on the US to get involved.
- [24:50]
Amit Segal
So I think the Israeli way to influence directly, the isolationist part of the Republican Party in this administration does not exist. But Israel fully relies on and heavily relies on the pro Israel. Very big part, very big portion of the Republican Party in this Trump administration. So I see the green light given by President Trump to Prime Minister Netanyahu as Netanyahu's most dramatic diplomatic achievement in his career as prime minister. I think what he did here, overcoming the Tucker Carlson fraction, overcoming the risk aversion method by President Trump, and convincing President Trump against all the odds, against most of the odds, against all the negative coverage is something that will be written in golden letters in the books of history. And I'll give you, I'll tell you something more than this. Just compare it to what we discussed three weeks ago about President Trump turning cold shoulder to Israel following his visit with Saudi Arabia, in the Emirates, in Qatar. The perception was that Trump abandons Israel, that Israel, Israel is off the table. But what we know now is that Israel was under the table, wiretapping whatever it takes in the Middle East.
- [26:13]
Dan Senor
So I'll tell you, I think there are three big advantages that Israel has as it relates to how it's viewed in this debate within those advising the president, within the kind of GOP MAGA community. One is, as you said, the majority of the Republican Party is still passionately pro Israel. And I think you saw this evidence and you and I have talked about this on this podcast a few weeks ago. This is more than a few weeks ago, over a month ago, when there was still talk out of Witkoff and some of the people around Witkoff that he was possibly still the administration could cut a deal that allowed some enriched uranium, maybe not as much as the Iranians wanted, but not as little as Israel wanted, which means none, but somewhere in between. And there was all this talk that he was sort of okay with it. And then you had this letter authored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton. The fact that those two signed the letter, authored the letter, was not surprising. They're traditional Republican hawks, But there are 53 Senate Republican senators in the Senate, and 52 of the 53 signed the letter. And the letter was to the president saying, zero enrichment. There can be no enrichment. And the House, House Republicans put together their own letter. The proportionate terms was similar. I can't think of another issue since Donald Trump has been president since this presidency where you've seen Republicans in Congress en masse publicly say stop right the direction you are heading is in the wrong direction.
- [27:50]
Amit Segal
And I think now we know what happened in real time. Everything that you describe happened around April 15. The D day was supposed to be April 15, just two days after a Passover night. But it was postponed because on April 3, Prime Minister Netanyahu was urgently called to Washington to give to be lectured by President Trump that he should not attack Iran because President Trump was about to launch direct negotiations with Ayatollah regime. Now, at the very same moment There was something very disturbing when the special envoy, Witkoff, said that a certain level of enrichment would be allowed for Iran. Now, this was not a deception. This was a real daylight between Israel and the U.S. but gradually, President Trump understood that there is no one to talk to in the Iranian regime. And I have to say that I'm quite disappointed by the negotiation skills of the Iranian regime. We were told for many, many months that Iranians are expert in negotiations, that they have 3,000 years of experience in the bazaar in Tehran, and all of a sudden you see something that they are dealing with someone they had tried to assassinate prior to the US election, which means that he has nothing in favor of them refusing to each and every demand that he posed. When they hear on every night the military preparations in Israel, and yet they insisted on doing nothing and compromising and zero compromise.
- [29:31]
Dan Senor
So I would say with regard to the Republican senators and the House members, they're totally in touch with their base. And that has had the impact that you just described. They're totally in touch with their base of the party and the president. When people say maga, not maga, these terms are thrown around. The reality is, because the totality of maga, it may not be the totality of maga, but a big part of MAGA is the traditional core Republican, largely evangelical Christian base of the party. And that base of the party has deep ties, and members of Congress are tied into it. And the President, he's dialed into who these people are. I mean, if you look at his record, certainly in his first term, also reflected he understood the symbolism of Israel, of the US Moving its embassy to Jerusalem, his base understood what it means to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital. And you can go on and on in terms of all the policy implications. So I just, I think they overinterpret the volume of some of these personalities in the restrainer camp that are online and, you know, and are noisy. But I don't think they're reflective necessarily of the base. The second person who I think is very important here, and this is going to surprise our listeners, is JD Vance. Because JD Vance is thought to be in the restrainer camp. And I, you know, maybe he is, maybe he's not. I don't really know. But when you also hear J.D. vance talk about Israel, the vice president is deeply affectionate of Israel, very much admires Israel. He may not want the US to be getting involved in war, but it's different from some of the other critics of what Israel, what. What Israel is doing that. That have this deep anti Israel hostility, I would say borders on anti semit. That's not J.D. vance. I've talked to Vice President Vance. He's in awe of Israel. So I think that's an important point. Like if Israel can demonstrate that Israel can do this mostly on its own and not drag the US in in a way that people like Vice President Vance have spoken about over the years, that may be all Israel needs to do. Because for Vance, there's not this animus that you hear from others. It's quite the opposite. It's actually he's quite, quite admiring of Israel. And then the third group I would mention are the Sunni Arab countries. They're putting out these statements that are critical of what Israel's doing. But from my understanding, and you may have heard the same behind the scenes, they are not disappointed with these developments.
- [31:56]
Amit Segal
To say the least. You know, it's very successful to have success.
- [32:01]
Dan Senor
Right.
- [32:01]
Amit Segal
Once Israel succeeds, it paves the way to yet another success, this time with Americans flying on the Israeli miles.
- [32:10]
Dan Senor
Okay, I want to ask you about Iran's options now. What are Iran's. If you're climbing into Iran's decision making matrix, and I'm asking this partly based on the fact that Israeli decision makers are thinking this through. What are the regime's options?
- [32:27]
Amit Segal
They are in deep troubles. But I want to begin with a short introduction. One minute introduction. Day after October 7th, which surprised the Iranians as well. They started accelerating their nuclear efforts. Why? Because their idea was Sinwar hadn't bothered to actually inform us and were quite pissed angry at him. But Israel is now in big troubles in Gaza. We have enough time to actually take care of our nuclear program and to advance to a bomb. That was the case. It was like a light morning run in the park 10 months later when Israel actually eliminated Hezbollah and Iran was left without proxies, without this shield, the Hezbollah and Hamas shield. This light morning run in the park turned to be a panic run to the nuclear bomb because they said this is the last thing that we have in order to protect the survival of the regime. So this is the general picture. And now I want to touch the most important date when it comes to the Israeli Iranian conf. April 14, 2024, the night in which Iran attacked Israel directly for the first time in Iran's history. This was following the assassination of Mahadavi, a senior officer from Iran in Syria. And the decision made by Ayatollah Khamenei to attack Israel directly actually paid a very important service to Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu it broke the fear barrier, it shattered it. Because for the first time Israel handled. Israel tackled a full scale attack from Iran and saw that it can actually stand, can handle with this thing. Till then, the fear in Israel was from a devastating damage. And when Israel saw that it has both no chance or no other way but to fight Iran directly, and that it's not as worse, as bad as Israelis thought, it paved the way for the attack. This is the reason why in November 2024, two days after the election in the US, seven days before Hezbollah, give or take, surrender to Israel, Netanyahu signed the paper that actually initiated this operation.
- [34:58]
Dan Senor
So when you say it was two days after the US election, guess I have two questions. There's a piece out in Jewish Insider right now quoting several Biden officials and Harris officials who are saying this is terrible what Israel's doing. So I guess what you're saying is there was a recognition that there was no way Israel could do this with the Harris administration, that the turning point was Trump being elected.
- [35:22]
Amit Segal
Yes. But I have to tell you something that I guess you already know, and this is that the Biden administration in the twilight zone in December and the beginning of January 2025, following the election, when President Biden is a lame duck three weeks prior to his resignation, considered very seriously to attack Iran directly by the US Army. So it's more complicated than this. So you might say that that what Biden would have done, President Harris would never have done. But I don't know, to be honest, I don't know. But there is no doubt that it was way easier with President Trump than with President Harris.
- [36:06]
Dan Senor
And wasn't this war plan though, even though it began after Trump was elected or the prime minister launched this, the operation, if you will, at least from a planning phase, the actual war plan that was developed was long in the making.
- [36:20]
Amit Segal
I'll give you an example. Okay. There was many things that were very, very old and many things which are relatively new. For instance, the trucks, the hidden trucks with the hidden missiles that actually destroyed a big part of the anti aircraft system in Iran was smuggled to Iran in 2006 and 2007. So those trucks are very old. For 17 or 18 years, there was this array of trucks in Iran. This was when Olmert was still prime minister. On the other hand, following the decision of Netanyahu to actually go full engines ahead, there was a very important segment of the intelligence, especially AI intelligence that began to be shaped, began to be made only in the beginning of 2025. So it's like an archaeological site in which you see this specific attack consists of 10 to 15 layers of preparations of over 20 years.
- [37:27]
Dan Senor
Do you think Israel takes out the supreme Leader of Iran, Khamenei?
- [37:31]
Amit Segal
I think it's definitely on the table.
- [37:34]
Dan Senor
Say more like what would be the reason to do it or not to do it.
- [37:39]
Amit Segal
Actually order directly targeting Israeli civilians. So even according to the international law, he is a target. It does not consist a war crime. Even under the Hague, the distorted Hague International Criminal Court. Why not? Because it's unprecedented, by the way, even the decision to take the supreme leadership of the Iranian army. There is no precedent in history for such things. Nothing at this scale has ever happened in the field of modern war. So maybe it would be a step too far, I don't know. And there is an idea that Khamenei made so many mistakes, made so many mistakes that it would be a mistake to actually take him down. It would just make the Iranian people angry because he's still a symbol without having something, you know, an advantage that has to be earned.
- [38:39]
Dan Senor
All right, I have two more questions for you, and then I'm going to let you go. One from Prime Minister Netanyahu's perspective, and you and I have talked about this in a previous episode, that at the time I thought he was still deciding what to do. And considering it, it sounds like he had already long decided to do this. But, you know, and obviously the Prime Minister and his team are watching the debate inside the United States that I referred to earlier, the people around the president weighing in on this issue. Prime Minister Netanyahu, the point I made is if he was put on this earth for one thing, his fans could probably agree and his critics could probably agree. The one thing was to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. Meaning it's an issue he's been obsessed with for decades. He's been screaming from the hilltops about this issue for as long as I can remember. And the idea that if Iran built a nuclear weapon successfully on his watch, you know, it would all be for naught. All his warnings, all his organizing about it will have been meaningless because they will have been successful. And he didn't stop it. To what extent did that weight of history, again, this is. And I'm asking people to listen to this conversation, regardless of what they think of judicial reform or how they think he's handled certain issues, you know, during the last 18 to 20 months, or how the, how divided and, and Israeli society has become or how much they're disgusted. And I'm disgusted, too, by some of the people in his government. I'm just asking people to kind of put that aside, just for the purposes of this. Not this entire conversation, but this question. Because I think it's an important question when leaders, however flawed, meet a moment in history. Can you talk about that?
- [40:18]
Amit Segal
I see the history of the Middle east in the last 30 years as a showdown between two people. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Ayatollah Khamenei. Prime Minister Netanyahu tried to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, and Ayatollah Khamenei tried to eliminate Israel. On October 7, 2023, it looked like Ayatollah Khamenei is on his way to succeed. What we see that 620 days later, it looks for the first time as if Prime Minister Netanyahu is about to succeed in his mission of life, which is to take care of the most severe threat to the existence of the Jewish people since the Holocaust, and maybe including the Holocaust. Because what we know following October 7th is that when fundamentalist Muslims have a weapon, it is a weapon to be used against the Jews and against the Jewish state. On October 7, it was Toyota vehicles, Kalachnikov rifles, knives. It was supposed to be, in a few weeks, a nuclear bomb. And this is why, and I'm quite sure this is the reason why, Netanyahu actually approved the plans to attack Iran's nuclear program. And he did it after 30 years of political career and after four failing attempts to convince the Israeli military establishment to do it. So Netanyahu, that devastatedly failed on October 7, was the only one to survive and to use or to actually convince the new figures in the military establishment to actually fulfill his life vision.
- [42:04]
Dan Senor
Wow. Okay, last question for you, Amit. We've entered the Israel Iran war, which is. It's unlike any other war Israel has fought. The distances are vast. The weaponry is sophisticated, the targets are fortified. The home front is vulnerable. You've talked about what you think the timeframe is for this war, but what surprises do you think each side could have in store for the other? What should we be paying attention to that we're not paying attention to save.
- [42:33]
Amit Segal
US Intervention and the gas industry?
- [42:36]
Dan Senor
The gas industry on both sides?
- [42:38]
Amit Segal
No, on the Iranian side. I think we should pay attention to the way Iran's proxies abandon it. You see Hezbollah issuing an email in which they announced they will not intervene in the conflict. Now, the Iranian taxpayer had funded Hezbollah in billions of dollars over the last 30 years, only to get a humiliating email from Nasrallah's. Successors successor yet another, that they will not take part in it. Same applies for some militias in Iraq. What we see now is the face off, the naked face off between Israel and Iran with no one in between. And in two weeks from now, we will have known how it ended.
- [43:23]
Dan Senor
All right, Amit, thank you. We made it through an entire episode without another siren going off. So that is a small measure of success.
- [43:31]
Amit Segal
Yes.
- [43:32]
Dan Senor
Stay safe, my friend.
- [43:33]
Amit Segal
Thank you so much.
- [43:43]
Dan Senor
That's our show for today. If you found this episode valuable, please share it with others who might appreciate it. Time and again, we found that our listeners are the ones driving the growth of the CallMeBack community. So thank you. And to offer comments, suggestions, sign up for updates or explore past episodes, please visit our website, ark media.org that's arkmedia.org where you can deepen your understanding of the topics we cover. Call Me Back is produced and edited by Ilan Benatar. Sound and video editing by Martin Huergo and Mariangelis Burgos. Our director of operations is Maya Rakoff. Research by Gabe Silverstein. Our music was composed by Yuval Semo. Until next time, I'm your host. Host Dan Senor.