Call Me Back - with Dan Senor
Episode: Will the U.S. Deal Iran its Final Blow? - with Amit Segal
Release Date: June 16, 2025
Host: Ark Media
Guest: Amit Segal, Senior Political Analyst for Channel 12

1. Introduction: Context of the Conflict

The episode opens with Dan Senor setting the stage for a critical discussion on the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. He recounts a devastating offensive by Iran on June 15, 2025, marking the deadliest night for Israeli civilians since October 7th.

Dan Senor ([00:59]): "It's 9:00am on Sunday, June 15 here in New York City. It is 4:00pm On Sunday, June 15, in Israel, where Israelis are reeling from the deadliest night for Israeli civilians since October 7th."

Amit Segal provides an initial analysis of Iran's strategic maneuvers and Israel's potential responses, hinting at historical parallels like the American Lend-Lease operation during World War II.

2. Overview of Recent Iranian Attacks

Incident Details:
On June 14-15, Iran launched two significant missile barrages against Israel, resulting in substantial casualties and destruction.

• First Barrage ([00:59]): Targeted northern Israel, hitting Tamra east of Haifa, killing four women.
• Second Barrage: Focused on central Israel, striking Batyam residential building, resulting in six deaths, including young boys.

The attacks led to ongoing casualties and missing persons as the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continue search and rescue operations.

Dan Senor ([00:59]): "Two massive barrages of missiles from Iran left 13 Israelis dead and over 200 wounded."

3. Israel’s Military Response and Impact on Iranian Capabilities

Amit Segal elaborates on Israel's preemptive and retaliatory strikes against Iranian infrastructure, emphasizing the effectiveness and speed of these operations.

Amit Segal ([06:00]): "Central Israel... a single ballistic missile destroyed 9 to 20 buildings, forcing nearly 1,000 Israelis to evacuate."

Strategic Strikes ([02:17] & [03:57]):

• Israeli Air Force targeted key Iranian sites, including Shahran gas depot and major oil refineries.
• Significant figures within Iran’s military hierarchy, such as Ali Shamkhani, a top advisor to the Supreme Leader, were eliminated.

Amit Segal ([05:18]): "Iran has approximately 1,600 ballistic missiles remaining, with about 10 having penetrated Israel's defense systems, costing at least 14 Israeli lives."

4. Potential U.S. Involvement: Options and Implications

A pivotal part of the discussion revolves around whether the United States will escalate its involvement against Iran, potentially delivering the final blow to its nuclear ambitions.

Amit Segal ([16:16]): "If the US enters this campaign, I would say 48 hours to end the Iranian nuclear program. As long as it's Israel, it's going to take about two weeks."

Options Discussed:

• Direct Military Intervention: Utilizing U.S. B2 bombers stationed at Diego Garcia to deliver decisive strikes.

  Amit Segal ([17:29]): "One bomb from one B2 bomber can destroy Fordu completely and also Natanz and Isfahan."

• Support Through Equipment Sharing: A modern version of Lend-Lease, where the U.S. might lend B2 bombers to Israel, enabling them to carry out critical strikes independently.

  Amit Segal ([19:31]): "Maybe Israeli pilots will use B2 that would be lent to them from the US Army. It takes only one bomb to destroy Fordu."

5. Israeli Public Sentiment and Societal Impact

The conversation shifts to the Israeli public's morale and resilience amid continuous attacks. Amit Segal compares current sentiments to those experienced during the Blitz in London, highlighting unprecedented support for military actions against Iran.

Amit Segal ([09:02]): "The support for the Israeli operation against Iran is the highest that I have ever seen in my lifetime."

Personal anecdotes underscore the societal impact, including the role of safe rooms in households and the collective endurance of the Israeli populace.

6. Political Dynamics: U.S. Domestic Debate and Israeli Leadership

Dan Senor and Amit Segal delve into the intricate political landscape in the United States, discussing the Republican Party's stance and the influence of key figures like Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Tom Cotton, and Vice President JD Vance.

Dan Senor ([27:50]): "Republicans in Congress en masse publicly say stop. But figures like JD Vance, who admire Israel, play a crucial role in shaping the response."

Amit Segal praises Prime Minister Netanyahu's diplomatic prowess in garnering U.S. support, contrasting it with perceived shortcomings in the Iranian negotiation strategy.

Amit Segal ([26:12]): "Netanyahu overcame the Tucker Carlson faction... something that will be written in golden letters in the books of history."

7. Future Outlook and Possible Scenarios

Amit Segal outlines potential future developments, including the exhaustion of Iran's ballistic missile stockpile and the possibility of targeting key nuclear sites and leadership figures.

Amit Segal ([14:43]): "We are at phase three out of ten in the nuclear program... next steps involve attacking Fordu and eliminating key scientists."

He discusses scenarios where the U.S. might intervene directly, potentially accelerating the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions within a short timeframe.

Amit Segal ([16:16]): "If the US enters this campaign, it can end in 48 hours with the utter destruction of the Iranian nuclear program."

8. Conclusion: The Critical Juncture

The episode concludes with reflections on the unprecedented nature of the current conflict between Israel and Iran, emphasizing the high stakes for regional and global stability. Amit Segal highlights the diminishing role of Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, underscoring a direct confrontation between the two nations.

Amit Segal ([42:37]): "Now we see a face-off between Israel and Iran with no one in between. In two weeks, we will know how it ended."

Dan Senor wraps up by acknowledging the absence of immediate threats during the recording's conclusion, symbolizing a momentary reprieve in the ongoing hostilities.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Dan Senor ([00:59]): "13 Israelis dead and over 200 wounded... the IDF just recovered a body from the rubble."
• Amit Segal ([05:18]): "Iran has approximately 1,600 ballistic missiles remaining... 10 have penetrated Israel's systems."
• Amit Segal ([09:02]): "Support for the Israeli operation against Iran is the highest that I have ever seen."
• Amit Segal ([14:43]): "We are at phase three out of ten in the nuclear program... next steps involve attacking Fordu."
• Amit Segal ([16:16]): "If the US enters this campaign, it can end in 48 hours with the utter destruction of the Iranian nuclear program."
• Amit Segal ([26:12]): "Netanyahu overcame the Tucker Carlson faction... something that will be written in golden letters in the books of history."
• Amit Segal ([42:37]): "Now we see a face-off between Israel and Iran with no one in between. In two weeks, we will know how it ended."

Key Takeaways

• Escalation of Conflict: Iran's missile attacks have intensified the existing tensions, leading to significant civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in Israel.
• Israel's Proactive Military Strategy: Israel has effectively neutralized a portion of Iran's missile capabilities and targeted critical Iranian infrastructure, demonstrating advanced military preparedness.
• Potential U.S. Intervention: The U.S. has multiple avenues to involve itself, ranging from direct military strikes using B2 bombers to strategic support through equipment sharing, which could rapidly dismantle Iran's nuclear program.
• Unified Israeli Public Support: Amidst the crisis, Israeli society remains resilient, with overwhelming support for governmental military actions aimed at neutralizing the Iranian threat.
• U.S. Political Landscape: The Republican Party, particularly its hawkish members, largely supports strong actions against Iran, while figures like Vice President JD Vance advocate admiration for Israel without necessarily endorsing direct U.S. military involvement.
• Future Outlook: The conflict is at a critical juncture, with significant implications for regional stability. The potential for direct confrontation between Israel and Iran without proxy involvement underscores the severity of the situation.

Stay Informed:
For further insights and detailed analyses, visit arkmedia.org to explore past episodes, sign up for updates, and engage with the Call Me Back community.

Produced and edited by Ilan Benatar. Sound and video editing by Martin Huergo and Mariangelis Burgos. Director of operations: Maya Rakoff. Research by Gabe Silverstein. Music composed by Yuval Semo.