A (2:07)

The new channel, Cappy Army. That's where people can find me. It's going to be great geopolitical defense rundowns.

B (2:13)

So just lead us off, take us down the rabbit hole. What is going on on the front lines right now? Is Europe preparing for World War 3? And furthermore, why did Zelensky and Trump have that battle, that face off in the White House, in the Oval Office? And what is Zelensky thinking with that whole, you know, that arrangement? And why was he so confident in sort of like going up against the president, United States, and one of the main funders of their defense system.

A (2:43)

To start with the Zelensky conversation, the thing that fascinates me about that is, so there's different levels of analysis when you're talking about analyzing Europe's defense procurement, Europe's rebuilding their armament. If they're going to be preparing for war, war iii, that's one type of analysis. And then there's a very different type of analysis, which is like the diplomacy and the way that diplomats speak and the way that negotiations happen, and the rules of war are very different than the rules of negotiation and the way that we try to use leverage. So everyone has a different read on how a human's communicating, what they're trying to do, what their motivations are. ZIELINSKI so my personal read on it is that I think he had a lot to gain by going in there and stoking and provoking an argument that was years in the making. This was, you know, anger building up, resentment building up between the Trump administration and the, and. And Zelensky. And this is years going back years between not just these administrations, but, but also these people. The Ukrainian people have resentment, and the American people have their resentment. I think. I think the Ukrainians feel like they're protecting Europe. They're on the front line dying, giving their blood, and they don't feel appreciated for that. And I think that the American people feel like we're funding this war, we are investing resources that could go elsewhere into this war in Europe. And why is this our problem and not Europe's problem? And so there's all this frustration building on both sides. And I saw it when I was on the ground in Ukraine. I went to the front, front lines and I spoke to the soldiers. And you can get that sense that there's as much as we're partners in any partnership, there's also frustrations.

B (4:47)

Yeah. Where did it leave off in 2020 when Trump's first administration ended as far as their relationship with Ukraine? Was it on good footing? Was Zelenskyy trying to get funding for defense at that time as well?

A (5:00)

The thing about Trump's first administration was he didn't have the full control that he does now to push the levers the way he wanted to. He had a lot of people in his cabinet that think were working at cross purposes with him. But at the end of the day, what happened was Trump ended up giving a lot of weapons to Ukraine. And if you look at the overall trend of just Biden, Trump doesn't matter. It's trending up. They're doubling down on giving weapon systems to Ukraine. So they gave something like $78 million worth of javelin missiles that were instrumental in their defense against the initial Russian invasion. And Trump, but Trump does feel, I think, some kind of way about, he's used this in the past. He's used that as leverage where he held up $400 million worth of military aid to Ukraine and he used that as a bargaining chip. And so there is, there's always been tension between Zelensky and Trump. It's I, I personally, the read that I have is that Trump wants that war over, wants it over so that he can focus on China. And I think he's willing to make concessions. And the Ukrainian people want a security guarantee. They need a US Backed security guarantee. Because if the United States doesn't put in writing in black and white, hey, our military will, our nuclear force, our bomber force, strategic bomber force will. If Russia violates whatever agreement they come to, the United States will guarantee. It's like when someone gets an apartment and they need a guarantor when they're very young and like your parents are like, we're going to take on that risk. If you don't pay your rent, it's going to be taken care of. If you go to college and your parents help with college guarantor, Ukraine is saying we need a guarantor. From Ukraine's perspective, they feel like for decades they've been promised like you're going to come into the European Union, we'd like you to come into NATO. And then when something happens, it's now they feel like they don't have that, that guarantee. They need it in black and white.

B (7:22)

Right?

A (7:22)

I think what Zelensky feels like he needs to get for his people because he's advocating for his people.

B (7:28)

Alrighty. Don't skip forward, guys, because I am on the road. World's fastest ad read coming at you. I'm going to be in Bangor, Maine, Portland, Maine, Charleston, South Carolina, Atlanta, Stroudsburg, Hoboken, Indianapolis, Buffalo, Raleigh, Poughkeepsie, Portland, Oregon, Fort Worth, Tex. Austin, Texas, Stanford, Philly, Levittown, Chandler, Arizona, San Diego. I'm also going to be adding Toronto, Montreal, as well as Washington, D.C. and a bunch of other dates. You can get all that@themarkagnon.com dates are in the description. Also in probably the comments of this episode. Go see me on the road. Come hang out. I'll be hanging out with everyone after the show. Come shake my hand. Call me an Idiot. Whatever you want to do, I will be there. Additionally, I will be doing my one hour of standup comedy. I'm very proud of this hour. I'm really excited to share with you guys. It would mean the world if everyone could come on out. And what do you wear to a show on the road? That's a great question. You can go to campgoods co. That's right. We got merch, we got Camp merch, we got hats, hoodies, T shirts. A lot of stuff is out of stock. Things have been selling like hot cakes. But we're going to be restocking everything in all the sizes. So you can go there right now, get all the merch, get all the coolest clothing in the podcast game. We're going to be updating that site regularly. And if you come out to a show, I'd love to see you sporting some of the threads that we got up online. I'll see you guys there. Let's get back to the show. Yeah. I remember even just in their interaction, like as things are getting heated, Zelensky saying that, do we have a guarantee? Can you get us a guarantee? And that seemed like the big contention. So I'm curious, what would be some potential reasons that Trump would be resistant to giving some type of security guarantee?

A (8:58)

The big reason is I think Russia will not sign, likely, likely won't sign a peace agreement where there's a US Backed security guarantee. And Trump wants something signed. He wants a deal to go through. I think he wants Europe to guarantee it. When you look at Europe's army and their, their firepower that they have, they don't feel like they can guarantee the security. And it, and it also comes down to what's a credible guarantee? Like Europe can say, UK can say we're going to send forces to Ukraine, but is it credible that they could actually send something like a hundred thousand troops? No, when you look at their forces, they don't have that kind of mass.

B (9:46)

And I think the French have committed a certain number of troops. I think it was like 20,000 or something to that effect.

A (9:51)

It's when you look at what, the size of their armies, it's, I think combined each of them, their armies, like so uk. This message comes from Greenlight. Ready to start talking to your kids about financial literacy? Meet Greenlight, the debit card and money app that teaches kids and teens how to earn, save, spend wisely and invest with your guardrails in place. With Greenlight, you can send money to kids quickly, set up chores, automate allowance and Keep an eye on your kids spending with real time notifications. Join millions of parents and kids building healthy financial habits together on greenlight. Get started risk free@greenlight.com Spotify his army is like 80,000 active duty soldiers. France is somewhere in that ballpark. And you have to consider, even though you might have 80,000 active duty troops, with the logistics and the rotate, you have to rotate troops through. So you really need three times that. If you want to rotate 40,000 troops somewhere, you need four times that amount because you need 40,000 in the rear for a year and then move them in to the front line and then move those guys back. So. Because you don't want them there, you know, forever, right?

B (11:06)

Yeah. I'm trying to figure out like, I'm trying to put myself in Zielinski's head where he's going to this meeting. It all starts off with the, the outfit, I guess they've requested that he wear something more professional. Don't come in and like, you know, sort of like, you know, like a militia, you know, military type country at war uniform, which he resists. Which, again, I kind of get it from his perspective. It's like, optically, we're a nation at war, so I'm going to wear whatever. And it seemed like the White House is trying to pressure him in some capacity, but then Trump makes a Congress says, you don't have the cards, you don't have the cards. And from my perspective, without really knowing anything, it seems like he's right where Zelensky's getting the majority of their funding for defense from the United States and that Europe is not really in a position that they can back them either through troops or actual weapons. So I'm curious what incentive he has to not just be sort of compliant in that meeting and just kind of be sort of more peaceful and less agitating. Was he trying to create an optics thing where he was trying to show the American people how difficult it is to negotiate with this guy? Was he trying to get Europe riled up to then get more funding? Potentially. I'm trying to figure out what leverage he has.

A (12:23)

He has a couple of goals, I think, in having that argument. And they, and both sides, I think, had a lot of incentive and motivation to have it out in that moment. Because Zelinsky knows that, I think going into it, he knows he's not going to sign that mineral deal without a US Security guarantee. So I think it's likely that he went into that meeting thinking, okay, after we have this show dog and pony show in front of the cameras. We'll go back behind closed doors and we'll argue and I'm not going to sign this and I'm going to go back and the big headline is going to be, we didn't sign it because there's no security guarantee. But I think it became hard for him to have that argument behind closed doors. Things kind of spiraled and they had it out in public. I, I think there's no. And he said it. He went on, he went on Brett Barr afterwards, and he said it in as many words. He said that he wasn't going to sign that agreement without a security guarantee. And Trump and, and Vance felt like they cannot, that, that the mineral deal from their perspective, was as much of a security guarantee as they were willing to give. Because they, the mineral deal was like, we're going to have hundreds, maybe a thousand US Workers, American citizens working near the front line mining rare earth minerals that are a strategically important element. So if Russia violates the ceasefire, like they violated ceasefires in the past, then. And they kill Americans, there's an implicit security guarantee that you kill America. Because if you look at world history, there's many examples of America protecting their business interests. But to be fair, there's also many historical examples of America being like, see you later. By right, Afghanistan, right, Vietnam. So I can understand, I can understand both perspectives here. I get why Zelensky, you know, can't. What type of advocate for his people would he be if he went home empty handed with no security guarantee? And what type of negotiator would Trump be if he just was like, yeah, I'm going to do a security guarantee, which would all but guarantee, like, further escalation and conflict with Russia. There's different stakeholders. This is the highest stakes negotiation happening in the world right now. It's the most complicated negotiation. And trying to analyze it makes me feel stupid.

B (15:03)

I mean, you could say, I guess the fact that it was so public, both of their separate individual constituencies feel validated by the outcome, that Trump's people can say, look, this guy's trying to get some type of peace deal and the Ukrainians just won't have it. They just don't want to make a deal, they don't want peace. And then obviously the Ukrainians and all the supporters of Zelensky and his cause can say, look, Trump is being unreasonable. And Zelensky stood his ground and held up to the big man and protected our people. So in a way, optically, they both benefited.

A (15:35)

Yes. And then I think at the end of the day. What ended up happening was that I think Trump got his way.

B (15:41)

How so?

A (15:42)

Because, so he then if what happened next was he was like, if you don't do what we want, we're going to cut off aid. And that is the nuclear option, essentially, that's always on the table in any negotiation is really the power that you have is that you're willing to walk away. Like, whatever the consequences of that, come what may, you're willing to accept those consequences. And for the United States, the consequences of walking away are huge. Like potentially, Russia could conquer all of Ukraine and then that would be a security nightmare for the United States because they would have to then send more troops, invest more money on building up a, you know, a defensive perimeter around Ukraine. If all of Ukraine were. I know people want to say that, like, Trump is in cahoots with Putin. But like, re. My perspective is that it would, Trump would. It would look terrible for Trump.

B (16:44)

Sure.

A (16:44)

If Ukraine rolled over and lost, it would look awful. So I think Zelensky thought that his leverage was that he wasn't going to let Trump, was that Trump wasn't going to basically call a bluff and be prepared for that to happen. This is just my perspective. I know people have their own read and I respect that. And I am not claiming that like I'm an expert. This is just my read on it is that that's the leverage that Zelensky has, is that he knows that the United States does not want a situation where it looks like Trump lost Ukraine.

B (17:22)

And now what is the state of funding?

A (17:24)

So real quick, so Trump pulls all of the military aid issues a stop, completely stops all. Every artillery shells that are in transit, that are already on trains headed to Ukraine, stopped. Sorry, not going anywhere. Millions of dollars of equipment that was authorized stopped. And intelligence sharing stopped. So all of the satellite imagery the United States has, which is unmatched, Europe cannot do this. Stopped himars rocket systems that are long range rockets that are fired into Russian territory. Ukraine can no longer do that. All of these weapons systems, all this intelligence, it's like having a wall hack in a video game where you can see where the enemy is before they're there. It's a superpower. The United States shuts all of it off for about, I think it was three, four, maybe five days. And then Zelensky said, okay, we will do what you want. He comes back, he says, I'm very sorry for what happened. If you want to, you know, we'll do a ceasefire. We will work this out. You know, we are committed to peace. And instantly Trump turns it back on. He sends intelligence again, sends military weapons again, and now he focuses on Russia and he says, okay, the Ukrainians want peace. Do the Russians, let's try a ceasefire. Let's see if we can agree to a 30 day ceasefire. So this brings us up to where we are today and what we just see very recently, and I don't know how this is going to play out tomorrow. Things change by the hour. But right now what we're seeing is Trump is saying Putin's not ready for peace. Putin, I forget the exact words, but he's saying something along the lines of, Putin is very frustrating to me and I feel like he's, you know, basically dragging these negotiations along. So he is now focused on, on Russia.

B (19:28)

Even this article from NBC, Trump says he's, quote, very angry and, quote, pissed off at Putin during NBC News interview. Interesting. That's very interesting. And we don't know the actual particulars of what this meeting was. This was not obviously publicized. This was just through, I'm assuming, you know, secretaries that wrote everything down.

A (19:50)

So what's happening is there, people are talking and negotiating. And basically what Trump is communicating is that he feels like Putin is saying, sure, I'll do a ceasefire, I'd love to do a ceasefire, but I need X, Y and Z, which are things that would obviously not be agreed to. No, he, you know, this is what people say is that he's basically feigning that he's willing to do a peace agreement. And, you know, obviously cards on the table, like I'm biased towards Ukraine, but I try to stay objective. You know, the argument, I think from Ukrainian side is that Putin is pretending like he wants peace, but then he'll make a bunch of, this has to happen, this has to happen. And he knows that they'll never happen. So what I think we might see next is what type of leverage can Trump use against Russia. For Ukraine, he could shut off their weapons. Right. For Russia, he could put more sanctions, which I know people think that you can't do any harder sanctions than we're already doing, but maybe that's true. But we'll see. We'll see. He could also send more weapons to Ukraine, double down on defense, sending additional systems to Ukraine. So that's what I, if I were to guess, would be the next step if he feels like Putin is dragging his feet.

B (21:17)

Do we know how egregious the demands from Putin are for a peace agreement?

A (21:24)

Would you be able to look them up? Exactly, because I'm going to get them wrong.

B (21:26)

Yeah, let's go.

A (21:27)

I'm almost sure that this is from perplexity.

B (21:32)

So tell me if this is, if this is accurate. We can get the exact news if we need to. It seems like halting foreign military. So Putin demands the US and its allies cease military support for Ukraine territorial concessions. So basically withdrawing its forces from Donsk and some other words that I done yet.

A (21:52)

Frisia and Kherson, which, like, that's what I mean by things that Ukraine won't agree to because these are some areas that they've lost thousands of soldiers to. And it's just not realistic that they're going to give up Kherson right now. They might end up doing it eventually, but. I see.

B (22:10)

And also, you know, it's aspirations to join Halting.

A (22:13)

Yeah. Which I think is not a problem. Some of this is not a problem. But halting foreign military aid, like, that's to. So if you really want a ceasefire and you're really interested in just ending this conflict, like, okay, I'm obviously giving the Ukrainian perspective, but why would you need to halt foreign military aid? Couldn't, could the military aid continue? And we just stopped the firing. So Russia is going to have a very different perspective, of course. And you know, there's a lot of people that are very great at explaining that perspective, but I'm, I'm better, I think, equipped to give you the Ukrainian perspective. So if they were to halt US military aid, for instance, to Ukraine, I mean, they'd be so far. Can I curse? Yes.

B (22:59)

Yeah.

A (23:00)

At least one.

B (23:01)

Do it again so hard.

A (23:02)

They'd be fucked. So hard. Like. So, yeah, you shut off military aid and then basically Russia has an incentive to. Because their advantage is that they can just build up mass. They can build up, they can prepare and launch another offensive and be in a better position to do so. So this, these are the, the concerns that are being basically like teed out right now. And Trump wants to see movement. Just a temporary ceasefire, I think. And you know, why can't we agree to a 30 day ceasefire? It's not necessarily, it's just like a, in negotiations you try to build trust. You try to, like, before we get to the, the real main meat of our negotiation, let's see if we can just agree to this little thing.

B (23:54)

30 days, see how it goes.

A (23:56)

Little trial offer, put the toes in the water. Just test it is chili, if it is, pull out. Yeah, that's, that's what this kind of is. It's a little test. And if that Goes well, we do another test. It's trust building exercise. It's like one of those terrible corporate trust building exercises, but with.

B (24:16)

We're trust falling. Yeah. With nuclear, Nuclear weapons, right? Yeah. That's a little scary. I wonder if Trump could just say, hey, we are going to keep funding, we'll keep weapon systems in place, but if the United States or Ukraine violate in any way and show any type of outward aggression and then basically line out what that would look like, then we will pull out funding. Like, if, if Ukraine or the United States agitates, you know, Russian borders in any capacity, this is where you get.

A (24:43)

Into, like the weeds of who is the arbiter of who's at fault for violating a ceasefire. Like, how do we, how do we. Who says that? Is it the UN that is on the ground in Ukraine? Because Putin would not want that. Is it a European force? He would not want that.

B (25:02)

I wonder if you could get like a joint committee or something.

A (25:04)

Is it a private security force? Is it some kind of private, multinational, like mercenary. Not mercenary, like security force? Is it. What is it? And who trusts it?

B (25:15)

Because if there's a little militia here and there that, you know, throw some rocks at, like a Russian airplane, that doesn't count because that's not sanctioned from the Ukrainian military.

A (25:24)

It's, it's, it's, it's very difficult to agree on who's going to be the arbiter of who violated the ceasefire. Right. Fairly. Who's not going to play. Is it China? I know they threw their hat in the ring recently. Is it like, it can't probably be the United States, can't be Europe. It's, it feels a little bit like, like an impossible puzzle to solve. And like, what you said would be ideal, that would be ideal. We just agree if you violate the ceasefire, then there's consequences and if you. There's consequences. But on the meta analysis, it's like, how do you agree who it was? Because everyone's going to say, we didn't violate the ceasefire. It was them, right?

B (26:15)

And then you get into all sorts of, you know, like, perverse incentives where it's like, let's say that deal goes into place, hey, if Ukraine violates a ceasefire in any capacity, then America pulls out funding and Ukraine's on its own, right? Like, if your girl starts a fight and then you come in and protect her, but if she keeps swinging, then you gotta back off. You know what I mean? Like, it's a crazy deal, but then, you know, is it possible that, you know, the Russians could create some type of skirmish that then looks like it is Ukraine's fault.

A (26:45)

What you're talking about is, I mean, I think if you're a soldier who's been on the front since 2014, you're probably screaming, watching this, saying, like, this has been my reality for the past 10 years. Because this was before it was a full scale invasion. It was like Russia and Ukraine both claiming that each side is shelling each other in Donetsk, the back and forth, you know, and so, and, and each side was claiming the other violated ceasefires back to 2014. And I don't know that there's any, like, perfect way to say, like, whose fault it was.

B (27:28)

Right, Because American intelligence does that. We have scans and, you know, all of our equipment looking at everything. We could say, no, no, no, it wasn't Ukraine's that started, but then they'd be like, well, obviously you're going to say that because you're in bed with them. So let's look at our intelligence. Oh, our intelligence says they did start it.

A (27:41)

All right, well, and there is a truth, there is an objective truth, but are we going to know the first casualty of war? Always?

B (27:49)

So it's like, yeah, I don't, I don't know necessarily how you could create terms on, on, on that front. I'm curious, I know that you're not going to, you're not some type of, you know, staunch pro Russian, you know, thinker, but I'm curious if you had to steel man like, Putin's position. Obviously he's been agitated by NATO encroachment in the past, and if that's off the table completely, what else does he have as far as a personal grievance to continue this and not look for peace? Is he, you know, if I was.

A (28:20)

Putin, I probably wouldn't be pushing for peace right now. This is a thought experiment. Sure, you're in school. This is an academic exercise.

B (28:28)

Steel Manning the Russian perspective.

A (28:30)

This is an academic perspective, rather exercise of thinking, because this is what they call in the military, they call it Red Cell thinking. You want to put yourself in the shoes of your adversary because it's advantageous to understand their perspective. In, you know, making your own decisions and thinking two steps ahead, you want to best understand their perspective. And so if I was Putin, I probably would not be pushing for peace right now, because the way I look at it is that the conditions on the ground, the conditions on the front line dictate a lot of times the, the, the negotiations and the, and the peace deal and the, and so if the reality on the ground is that you are gaining, let's say it might not be that you're gaining much, and it might be coming at a big cost, but if you're seeing that your team is winning, is getting, Is gaining ground, like, why would you be. Why would you say, yeah, let's stop time out. Why?

B (29:36)

That is the current state of things. It seems like Russia is gaining ground pretty steadily.

A (29:40)

And so when I went to Ukraine, when I actually, I went to the front, like, this is not a secret. The Ukrainian soldiers themselves say it. There's no sense in pretending otherwise. It's a struggle for the Ukrainian people. It's like four times smaller than Russia or something. Like, they're. What they've done so far is a miracle. The fact that they haven't been already completely occupied. So having said that, they are losing. And when you are losing, sometimes it's not like Russia needs to advance a kilometer at a time for the next year. It's. When a front line breaks, sometimes it breaks hard and you see just. You see a collapse. So it's, it's not accurate to say, like, Russia, it's going to take them six years to conquer all of Ukraine because. Because there are defensive fortifications back and back. I saw them myself. They're. They're dug in all the way back to Kiev. But personally, I feel like if I'm Putin and you're. You're advancing, like, why would you be calling for a timeout if you're him? He, I think, is making the calculation that his forces are going to be advancing and that if he can push, if he can buy time as long as possible and capture as much territory as possible, then he will be in a better and better negotiating position. Position when it comes time to negotiate, because they'll have more and more leverage.

B (31:19)

Right. So let's say they take over all of these regions that are contested right now, and they just fully sweep through.

A (31:24)

You know what? I love you want to pull up the Institute for the Study of War? There's a live map of the front line. And zoom into, let's say Kursk, which is.

B (31:37)

Yeah, I don't think Gabe knows where Kursk is. I didn't.

A (31:40)

I didn't know where Ukraine was until a year ago.

B (31:42)

Until you got a plane ticket.

A (31:45)

This is interest. Shows you where the minerals actually are. But if you go up north, up north to the, the, the, the top red. The top red piece. That's Kirst. The very top. Yeah, yeah, you're getting there. That's so that's that one right there. Yes. So this will be interesting when I walk you through basically where I went on the front and without giving away too much specifics, when did you go again? I was in November. Okay, so like, what was that four months ago? Five months ago after the election? It was days after the election. Yeah.

B (32:21)

Interesting.

A (32:22)

Yeah, yeah. So I asked their, one of their, I spoke with one of their, like top diplomats and I asked him, what do you think of Trump coming into office? How's it going to be? Talked to their soldiers as well and asked them, what do you think of Trump coming in? Everyone thought that they're going to hate Trump or something. But the answers I got were interesting. Not, they weren't all unanimous, like, oh, we hate Trump or something.

B (32:46)

Interesting. Okay, what's up, guys? We're going to take a break really quick because I want to talk to you about the most discreet, coolest way to curb your nicotine cravings. And that's right here with Zipix. You've probably seen me chomping on a couple of these toothpicks during the episodes of this podcast. I like to use a little bit of nicotine when I'm locking in on a long term conversation with someone, trying to figure out the, you know, deep meanings of life and aliens or even consciousness. I also like it when I'm trying to write. Sometimes right before I go on stage, I find that it just gives me a little bit more of a locked in feeling. I can focus for a little bit longer. There's even been some studies to show that nicotine has improved aspects of fine motor skills, attention and auditory processing and memory. So if you're trying to lock in for a little project you have, you just need a little boost. A little bit of nicotine is great. And these are great if you're trying to quit smoking too. If you don't want to fill your lungs up with smoke, but you still like the little nicotine feel, they have a bunch of great flavors. They also have 2 milligram and 3 milligram options. Zipix toothpicks are great for flights, little sporting event, or even just hanging out with the boys having a couple drinks. Zipix has helped hundreds of thousands of customers get their nicotine fix without needing to inhale, smoke or vapes or any of that stuff. So if you're interested, go to Zipix. That's Zip Pix toothpicks.com and the listeners of this program will get 10% off their first order by using the promo code Gagnon. That's Right. G, A, G, N, o, n. Get 10% off. I also should let you know that you have to be 21 years old or older to order. Also, nicotine is an addictive chemical, so please use it wisely. Only as much as you need. Now, let's get back to the show. So I see this is. And where. Where is Kursk? What is this butting up against Kursk.

A (34:24)

Oblast or region is. If you zoom out, it's that whole kind of. I guess the best way to describe it is like a state, I suppose it's like how we have New York state. This is Kursk State, sort of. And Ukraine. Their incursion into Kursk was that red piece that you see right there. That was the territory that they captured. It has since fallen and they've withdrew on the spot that I went to physically is now back in Russian hands.

B (34:59)

So that was Ukrainian land at one point prior to the conflict, or that was still just contested.

A (35:05)

It was under Ukrainian occupation, under Ukrainian military control.

B (35:10)

Interesting. It's interesting that it doesn't end on the river. They had the other side of the land on the other side of the river.

A (35:15)

There's not a river there. What there is, if you zoom in, there is only one way in and out of here. It looks deceptively like you could just, like, drive anywhere you want. But really there's just one highway, one border crossing point that real. That was open. And I drove in an armored vehicle through from Sumi. If you see Sumi down a little bit south. Yeah, pretty much there. So from Sumi, we met there, got in an armored vehicle and then drove up north. And I met with some M2 Bradley, American armored vehicles that were over there, met with them. These are the guys that are rotating in. Then we went up in past the border, and it's a surreal experience where you cross over the border and you see the sign and it says Ukraine and Russia on this big giant sign. And the checkpoint. I don't know if you ever crossed the border into Canada or like Mexico looks kind of similar, but it's just bombed the fuck out. Just totally flattened and all this concrete chewed up. And you could see where the tanks destroyed. Tanks everywhere littering the place. Destroyed Abrams tanks on the side of the road. Bradley's just bombed out. And once we get to Suja, you're feeling. And this is something I couldn't communicate in the video was you feel the artillery, feel the ground shake under you as the outgoing Ukrainian shells are being fired. And then you feel the return fire of Russian Grad rockets, which are, like, smaller but more saturated all over the place, and it's shaking the ground. And I'm interviewing these Russian civilians, these people that, like, lived there for their whole lives, generations before they've lived there. And they're like, we're not leaving here no matter what. How much shelling happens, really. Meet these Russian. These Russian women that are like the. The remind me of my mother. And they show me to their house that has just been blown up. And on the door it says, mom's dead. If you want to find us, we're at, you know, here. And it's written in chalk. These people have had been like, devolved to communicating through writing on a wall because there's no Internet, there's no communications, and the only way to tell your loved ones what's happening and what's going on is by writing it in chalk on a. On the wall, on the door. And there this. This woman, this old woman who's like a grandma, and she's picking up pieces of, like, family photos and stuff, and it's just terrible to watch. And I feel awful seeing it. And this bomb, this house was bombed out by Russian bombs, Russian aerial strikes, because the Ukrainians are taking shelter in Russian houses. Same thing Russians do. They take shelter in Russian basement, in basements. And there are no big military bases. It's like these lines are blurred at this point. When I went to Kursk, I had already been to a bunch of different parts of the front, and this was by far the most intense in terms of the fire coming in and out of there. And unlike any, like when I was in Iraq, I'm not worried about airstrikes. The insurgents aren't calling in close air support. They're not calling in artillery fire on us. It felt like a roll of the dice. And drones were another thing that when I was in Iraq, I was mostly scared about IEDs, explosives. Here, I'm terrified of the buzzing noise. And as soon as you hear the buzzing of a drone, it's too late, really. It's. You're done. And I. And at one point, I'm interviewing these Russians, and I hear the buzz of a drone fly by overhead. And I nearly, nearly shit myself. They didn't even react. It was fortunately Ukrainian friendly FPV drones, explosive drones that are being flown by the Ukrainians. But if it had been the Russians, like, you're dead already. Because by the time you can hear it, it only takes. You can hear them. I think it's about 50 meters away where you can Start to hear the buzz and they move. I forget the exact speed, but it's, you know, it takes them two seconds to get 50 meters.

B (39:51)

Wow. So, like, how do the drones work? Are they buying commercial stock drones and outfitt them? Are they big? Like, can you break.

A (39:58)

They're producing a hundred thousand a month of their own domestically.

B (40:01)

Russia and Ukraine.

A (40:03)

I don't know what Russia's numbers are, but I know Ukraine is producing, producing at least 100,000 of these FPV drones. Got to go to their training center, which was an amazing experience to see how they train on their drone operating. Talk to some of the guys that have just killed, like scores of Russians. And he's showing me on his phone, like, way I might show you photos of my vacation. He's showing me just, his phone is stacked with videos of his kills.

B (40:32)

Whoa.

A (40:33)

And he's showing me these, he's flipping through it and he's like, oh, here's, here's one guy that put a claymore on this drone. And like he took two drones to get him.

B (40:45)

Just like in his photos, like, album on his.

A (40:47)

Oh, yeah, wow. It's mixed in with like his family photos.

B (40:50)

Bizarre. And are they kamikazing the drones? So they, they outfit them with explosives.

A (40:56)

And then just attach an RPG to it. Attach a claymore to it.

B (41:00)

So on impact, C4, it explodes.

A (41:02)

Boom.

B (41:03)

Wow. I mean, and they're using full viz, like, like optical apparatus to see exactly where it's going.

A (41:10)

FPV drones, first person view drones. They've got the goggles on there and there's like this misunderstood. You think that they're. So I went with a drone team to the front and you think I thought, like, I'll go with the drone team. I'll be safe. I'll be like a bit away from the front. No, they want those guys all the way up on the front so that they can hit 12 kilometers into the Russian rear. So I, I'll finish, I guess I'll finish out Kirsk. I, I, maybe I, this is a good point to talk to you about the drone mission I went on because the Kursk. Yeah, the curse mission was intense and it was, you know, I'm still processing all this. Honestly, it's like, it was a lot and your adrenaline's pumping, but I do feel like the, the drone mission was even more intense and scary and probably the most terrified. I'm not going to lie to you and be like, I'm not a tough guy. I'm not. I was bullied when I was in School like I, I was terrified in on this mission. And it's a combination of like when you're in Iraq, you got your whole squad with you. You've got the power of the American military, the logistics that's capable of putting a Burger King anywhere in the world and then dropping a bomb like a hundred meters away from it any day that they want.

B (42:31)

Right.

A (42:32)

The Ukrainian military cannot do that. And so I guess I knew that. But like there's what you know and then there's what you really know. And when I got there, when you don't speak the language, you don't really know what's going on. So there I was like, everything's in flux. We think we're going to go to the front. And then they're like, it's too dangerous. You can't go to the front.

B (42:54)

You specifically or the whole operation.

A (42:56)

Yeah, like I'll. A lot of times I would get. If you want to go down. I'm trying to think I can say this. So it was near Tourette's. If you type it is search bar in the top left. So the red is where the Russian forces are and on the other side of that is where the Ukrainian forces are.

B (43:12)

What's that big blue?

A (43:13)

That's just a mineral deposit. That's where. I wish we could get rid of that, but it would take. Be annoying. So without giving. Getting too specific, I'll say that I was, I was two kilometers from where the red is.

B (43:31)

Wow.

A (43:31)

And so we're bas. We're surrounded on three sides. They're up, they're up north, they're up, they're down south and they're, they're also to the east. So the Russians are all around us. And the team that I'm with is a three or four man squad. That their job. They're drone operators. What they do is they find a basement near here, they go into the basement because Soviet buildings, Soviet houses were. It's like a bomb shelter. Wow. Concrete top, bottom. Like if a drum's. If a bomb's dropped on you, you have a chance of being okay. And so it's a game of cat and mouse. Your. Your tr. The hardest part is infiltrating. So getting from where it's safe in like Kramatorsk, getting from there to the actual zero line, getting down to the front, that's the, that's when you're most vulnerable. So they usually do it at night or during what they call the gray hours, which is like when the sun is setting and rising because Thermal optics are least effective during that time.

B (44:38)

Interesting.

A (44:39)

So as we're infiltrating to the position, I'm real, I didn't realize, I don't speak the language. They're like, okay, we're going. Like I said, a lot of times they'll say that and then you don't. This time we ended up actually going. I realized that we're going there in an unarmored pickup truck. We're going there in like a Ford Jeep to the front.

B (45:04)

For what purpose is that? Is that to not alert or like to raise suspicions or is that because of funding they don't have the vehicles?

A (45:11)

A couple of reasons. I think mainly it's to be inconspicuous. It's because you are less of a target for drones if you're in an unarmored vehicle. You're less heat signature, less noise signature. You're just not going to be seen as much. And. But I don't know that I would have agreed to this trip if I'd known that. Like, okay, we're going. I didn't realize it until too late, but I'm like, I'm not going to cancel this trip either. My interpreter, this amazing guy named Demetrio, my guide, my fixer, he asked him, he's like, is the EW working? Is the electronic warfare device working? This is the device that jams the drones. They're like, ew, fuck are you talking about? We don't have that.

B (45:57)

Wow.

A (45:58)

Like what do you think this is the Ritz Carlton? That's. Dude, we're rolling bear. We're raw dogging this trip. Wow.

B (46:07)

So what time is it roughly?

A (46:08)

It's late at night, it's dark. Well, I'll say it's like between, between the two. And we've, we've got this super dangerous stretch of road which is like the, I'll say, the last mile to getting there. And as we're driving there, I'm seeing artillery shells explode to my left and to my right. And we're seeing all these rockets go like through the horizon up in the air. We're seeing outgoing incoming and they do this every night. Like these, these Ukrainians are insane. And he's just shit talking as we're driving. He's, you know, we get. You have to cut the tension, basically. You're not going to sit there and just, you're gonna feel terrified and also talk about how you're terrified. No. So we're just.

B (46:57)

Did you get the sense that they were scared or at least.

A (47:02)

No, you don't get a sense at all. These people are desensitized to it. Never did I ever, ever once meet somebody who seemed scared. Like, they're so desensitized to it. Me, I am, because I'm coming off sitting with my pup, my. My little Tucker, my new. My. My pug, and hanging out with my. My pregnant wife back home and, like, watching YouTube videos all the time. And then suddenly I'm in this, like, situation. So I'm terrified. But them, it's a Tuesday. They. This is like a normal day for them.

B (47:34)

And how far away are the shells that are. That are dropping?

A (47:38)

Like 2, 300 meters away on the other side of a tree line. And.

B (47:42)

Oh, I think we're gonna take a mile. Like, no, like, you're seeing it and hearing it. Like lightning and thunder, like it's coming at the same time.

A (47:50)

Yeah. And you. And you could see it in the video that I posted. Like, there, you see, I got it on video. And it's like explosions. And I'm so. I'm trying to ask questions to get my mind off of it because I really feel like I'm gonna throw up at this point. And I feel like I've made an awful mistake. And they're joking. They're saying. They're like, where are you from? And I'm. I'm like, I'm from New York. And there's this. There's actually a town right here named New. A York, New York. And they're like, what are you doing here? You're in the wrong New York, brother. Like, what the hell are. You should go back home.

B (48:26)

That's funny.

A (48:27)

And I'm like, oh, I should be back home. Like, what am I doing here? I mean, I'm like, I'm going to. I've made a terrible mistake is what I'm thinking. And we get within five minutes of where the position is that we're going to be spending the night. Because the idea is to spend the night with this drone team, and they're going to be dropping bombs on Russian infantry that are assaulting through here. And in the back of the vehicle, we've got the ammo, we've got the battery supplies for the drones. And that's when over the radio, they say, you have to turn back. But I don't hear this. I only find this out when I get the interpretation back from the interpreters who are going through the whole video and I get a transcript of it. And I'm reading this and I'm realizing, like, this is way worse. Than I, that I knew because they get a re. They get a radio call that there's a Russian drone in the air and it's looking for us. And they're like, it's too dangerous. You need to go back. I'm thinking, okay, thank God, we're gonna abort this mission. And I'm, we can go home. And I can feel like, okay, I tried. Yeah. And then they're like, no, we're gonna go, we'll park under this tree. We'll hide here for a little bit. And then when the coast is clear, when we get, when we get intelligence, it's probably American intelligence, Probably like a US spy plane that's seeing or satellite that's seeing this. And so they get, we go, we park at some random house, we hide there and they, we wait for about like 5, 10 minutes, take a piss. Then they're like, okay, Russian drone is gone. Go to the position, do the rest of the infiltration. So then we push out, get back in the jeep, drive to the position where the Ukrainian drone team is. They like a choreographed drill. They just unload the batteries, unload the ammo, unload supplies, food, water. And then we go to the next place, drop off food, battery, waters. And then we, we drop off us and we go back, we go down into the basement where the drone team is. And what they do all night, the kind of like the, the loop, the, you know, the routine is they go up, they prepare an explosive mortar round, some type of explosive, attach it to the bottom of this drone that has. It's like a size of a lawnmower. And it sounds like a lawnmower. It's got six giant, maybe the size of this table, giant drone. And it lifts up this. I forget, was it like £60 worth of munitions? And then goes. And they get, they're on. I can't say exactly what they're on, but they're on a messaging service of some kind, secure service, and they start transmitting intelligence to the drone team. You see, they're like, here's the photo of the house that we think the Russian soldiers are at. Go fly over it. Drone flies over it. And they're like, okay. They'd make the fine tune adjustments and then they drop the payload. And you see on the thermal camera on the computer, big explosion. And you just saw people get blown to bits.

B (52:00)

Whoa.

A (52:01)

And then they go, they do that six, seven. Won't say exactly how many times, but they run multiple missions that night, dropping razor wire, dropping explosives, and I mean, it's just like unlike the war that I knew the logistics of it, the how to get to the position and out of the position, it's just a very different war than the insurgency and global war on terror that I know.

B (52:30)

Did they lose any drones while you were with them?

A (52:33)

No, but they told me that one of the, the worst things that can happen is that if they fly over a position and the drone like loses signal, then they have to, they have their rifles with them down in that basement and they have to go and retrieve it.

B (52:49)

What?

A (52:50)

Yeah. This is expensive. 10, $20,000 drone. Retrieve it? Yeah. So they've had to go. They've had to. And I'm like, I don't think I'm going to go on that. Fortunately, that night that didn't happen. But there's jamming the friendly units that are right on that red line. They have electronic warfare devices that are jamming the Russian drones and Russian missiles. Because all night that we're in that basement, I'm hearing and feeling the Russian artillery hitting around us and mortars, because we're within mortar range and it's hitting all around us and it's getting closer and they're walking it in and there's airstrikes happening. So an airstrike, one of those like cruise missiles that they launch. It sounds like a low flying jet, right? It sounds like there's a jet flying over. But you know, it's. But you know it's not. Because the unsettling thing about Ukraine is there's no jets and there's no airplanes in the sky.

B (53:49)

Wow.

A (53:49)

There's no commercial traffic in the whole country. So, you know, there's no plane flying overhead. It's a bomb. And what EW does is it spoofs those bombs. It stops those bombs from being accurate. And. But at the same time, if your friendlies are running their jamming devices, they.

B (54:06)

Could jam your own.

A (54:07)

Yes. Wow. So this is the problem that they were telling me that they're both sides are running up against is like, you have to coordinate telling your guys, hey, turn off your jamming so that we can fly our missions. But if I'm that infantry unit, I'm not going to turn off my basically, what's like a force force field. So you're asking me to lower my shield so that you can know, thanks.

B (54:31)

And then even if they are, it's just a, you know, there's the error of human communication. It's like, hey, at what time are you running your op? But it took you an extra 5, 10 minutes to get your actual, you know, drone set up for whatever reason, and you didn't relay that properly or it didn't get communicated effectively. Now it's jammed up. And then from their perspective, they're probably like, hey, it's better that we jam up everything and protect everyone than to risk letting you know a Russian drone in.

A (54:54)

Yes.

B (54:55)

Wow.

A (54:56)

That's the exact dilemma.

B (54:58)

And then I'm sure the Russians are also running ews as well.

A (55:01)

Yeah.

B (55:02)

So everyone's got this force field, and you're trying to basically circumvent each other's force fields with your drones. I mean, it's like.

A (55:08)

And trying to ask. It's like putting the greater good ahead of your own.

B (55:13)

Right.

A (55:13)

You're asking your guys to be like, hey, shut it down so that we can hit them. And a lot of times they'll be like, yeah, sure. Oh, it's still up. I don't know what happened.

B (55:24)

How do you retrieve a drone? Let's say you send it a kilometer away to, you know, some type of Russian target.

A (55:30)

Yeah, these. These drones are not the kamikaze one ways, right? These. You go drop the munition, and then it comes back and are. They typically lands short range. I. I mean, it's open source. It's open source how far they are. But I'll say that it's, you know, I'll say that they can go, let's say within the ballpark of 20 kilometers out to behind the enemy lines and then 20 kilometers back. So how do you get a drone.

B (55:55)

Back 20 kilometers into enemy lines?

A (55:58)

It. It flies over and you control it using, like, a computer.

B (56:03)

But then you lose the signal?

A (56:04)

No, no. They are careful not to let that happen. They. So when I was there, there were several times where, like, they would lose the signal and then they got it back. Or they would call up and be like, they call up headquarters and say, hey, can you get so and so to turn off their ew because we're getting jammed. And then it's like trial and error.

B (56:25)

But when you say they get. Take their rifles and they go retrieve If.

A (56:29)

If they lose signal. And not just because I think if it loses signal, it like hovers before it's. Before it gets signal again. It's not like it just falls.

B (56:38)

Right. And I'm assuming they might have some homing or something.

A (56:41)

They. They know, you know, they have a map similar to this. What they're seeing is like this, but then they'll also have a marker of GPS coordinates, and it's all Starlink. It's all Elon Musk's Starlink system that's running these drones. And they, this is public information. They said this. They openly say how they run on Starlink. And you, they, you can see it in the basement. They've got this like what looks like a big server or something and then it goes out and they have it wired up on a place to get the signal and they're running their ops through that. Whether you know, their communications, secure communications are going through that as well as the drone communications. But like to your question, if, if it were to lose signal and drop, provided that it's not like, you know, deep behind Russian terror held territory, they'll go and retrieve it because there's a GPS marker of where it was. Wow. And that's why they, they carry an insane amount of ammunition with them. They've got just like mags on mags and backpacks filled with ak just like hundreds of rounds. And another crazy part is the medical situation. I'll say when, whenever my vehicle was the kazavak vehicle in Iraq and so Kazavak in Iraq was relatively easy compared to this. We were just. And cazavec means casualty evacuation. So when Iraqi would get killed or blown up, we would throw or put them in the back of the Striker and drive them a click away, kilometer away. And a Blackhawk would land and pick them up, get them to the level four trauma care where they get really good surgery and then they could be in Germany in like 24 hours and getting the world's best medical care ever is not how that. Yeah, those are casualty evacuation vehicles. You could type in Kazavak Stryker, would they? What the Ukrainians do is a lot of kazavak happens in like the M113 or even just in the back of like a jeep. But wow.

B (58:50)

So these Kazakhs are little hospitals on wheels.

A (58:53)

Yes.

B (58:53)

This is not what they had.

A (58:55)

They have the hospital on wheels. But the problem is for us, we, we didn't have to worry about as we're going to get them to the care. Like we're not worried about the insurgents sending a missile and hitting our hospital hospital. Our, our level two care or level three care wasn't a reality we had to worry about in Ukraine they have to hide their hospitals in bunkers deep underground because if they don't, they're going to be targeted and hit. Those field hospitals are going to be struck with cruise missiles. And the same for the Russians like the Ukrainians are going to hit them. And the calculus that this Changes is basically the time to get to getting care. So if you're wounded on the front, instead of it being 15, 20 minutes to see a real medicine, you're waiting 14 hours.

B (59:52)

Wow.

A (59:52)

So with that tourniquet, you're losing that arm.

B (59:55)

Right.

A (59:55)

And if you survive, you're. You're lucky. And the guys that I saw going into the Kazavak Medical center, their eyes were. It just. They had shrapnel deep into their eyes from an FPV drone that had exploded. They were lucky because it got caught in a net. But most people aren't that lucky. They don't survive. So their whole casualty meta, the whole way that that works is in a near peer war unlike anything that America has recently even had to consider. Wow.

B (60:30)

And that, I guess is the biggest distinction for you. Someone that's seen active warfare in Iraq. You're one on the American side, so you have all the luxuries and resources of an American war. And then I guess additionally you're also there for a specific cause, you know what I mean? Like in this case, you're there for journalism and to document what's happening. And so you don't have necessarily the training. Right. You don't have the specific mission. You're just kind of along for the ride.

A (60:58)

My tour in Iraq was super tame compared to a lot of people. Like, I was not Fallujah. I saw my share of death and it was awful. Ukraine was indescribably different and, and sometimes not even in like a worse way, but just in. And it is way, way worse. My experience, but weird things where I met with the Foreign Legion, which are Americans veterans of Iraq that are serving in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and fighting now for Ukraine. It's weird to like talk to a bunch of dudes that for once spoke English.

B (61:37)

Yeah. Voluntarily. They're going, yes, yes.

A (61:39)

So they, they a lot of them former veterans. Yeah.

B (61:43)

I knew a guy, I knew a guy that did that. Right. I know him, he served for, in Ukraine for like six months or so and then came back.

A (61:49)

Yeah. So ton, tons of dudes do it. And the guy, it was eye opening for me because it's way easier to communicate with them and get like really have a conversation with them in English. And one of them was a Fallujah veteran who was like, he felt bad that what he did in Iraq he felt like was messed up and awful. He invaded a country, he felt his perspective. He invaded this country and did the wrong thing and that this for him was like a cathartic. It Was him doing something that was good, protecting people this time.

B (62:24)

But with that, you're also getting the, you know, the amenities of a much smaller force.

A (62:31)

So. So here's what I. Yes, he was talking about that how it's so different than Iraq and like you're on your own almost. But what they were telling me, and they all told me, tell me it was interesting difference between Iraq and Afghanistan is like you, when you're on the front, it's hell. But then you rotate back after, let's say a week, and you're back in the, in the rear way, you know, 20, 30 kilometers where you sleep at when you're not at that rotation at the front. And then you can like go get pizza, go on a date. You could like hang with your buddies and have a good time and like enjoy the city.

B (63:09)

Yeah. Bizarre.

A (63:10)

So weird.

B (63:11)

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And we have a special deal for the listeners of this program. That's right. Try your first month of bluechew. For free. That's right. Completely free. Mark, is it going to work for me? Is this, hey, it's free. Why not just try it? Visit bluechew.com for more details and important safety information. And we thank BlueChew for sponsoring this podcast. All right, now let's get after it and let's get back to the show. I remember I spoke with a, A World War I historian, this guy, Benjamin Hett. He's a brilliant guy, but he described one of the bizarre things that was happening in World War I is that it's one of the most bloody sort of gruesome wars ever. Up until that point. Right? It's like this trench warfare and, you know, chemical weapons. But then, you know, you were fighting on these, these borders and then taking a train back to London and that you would get rotated out and you'd be back in London with your countrymen and with your family, but still reeling from the trauma you just experienced, unlike any other war you'd ever been in. You know, even if you had been conscripted for, you know, a decade, it's unlike anything you've ever seen. And then get back on a train and go back to the front lines. And so he said that the PTSD actually worsened. Getting pulled out of these war environments, going into civilian environments, specifically civilians of their own kind. Assuming these guys going back into rear position are not just like, hey, we're out of war. I imagine it's a little bit different, but I think that change is probably necessary to an extent, but also can be traumatizing if you're not around the right people.

A (67:56)

So I think that experience is actually even different than what I'm talking about because that does sound like it could be traumatic because like you said, you're getting on a train, you're going to the rear.

B (68:06)

In London, everyone's like, oh, how's it going? How's war?

A (68:08)

This is different. This is. You're not going back to London, you're going a 15 minute drive.

B (68:16)

Oh, it's that close?

A (68:17)

Yes.

B (68:18)

Oh, two hours.

A (68:19)

No, no, no. You're going like a 20 minute ride away. And then you're at a city where, yeah, they'll get, they'll get hit with missiles occasionally. But if two missiles, three missiles hit a city the size of it, New York City, like in Upper east side, you wouldn't know about it down, you know, like Lower east side. Right. It's like similar to that. It's awful, it's terrible. But like these cities that are 20, 30 minutes from the front, you can definitely feel that the war is there, but you can also. The burger place is open, like bizarre. Yeah, it's so. I would say these dudes, it's almost. Not that it's not less traumatic, it's just different because you have that. At least you have that release. So you can. At least. There was one guy that I met when I was in Kursk who, he's rotating to the front in Kursk in Russia. And then when I took him back to interview him. He then went and met with his wife. His wife came up from Sumy to meet him. I won't say where but like near Kursk. And he was then going back to the zero line in Kursk the next day. Like you can see your wife that in. When I was in Iraq, I. You're. You're there and you are. No alcohol. No. Just dudes. So many dudes.

B (69:40)

Yeah.

A (69:41)

Like wall to wall dudes.

B (69:42)

Yeah. Just working out. Maybe get. Get one video game on like a shitty, you know, PS1.

A (69:47)

A lot of gay chicken. Like all day. So like I'm not saying it's less traumatic. I'm just saying that it's a. To me it was like, what is going on here? It's so different. It's just crazy. It's like I think the way you see it and feel it and sense it is that guys. It seemed like there was may. I might be totally wrong just from like what I saw. Maybe a little less infighting, especially because you've got such an enemy. And maybe I'm totally wrong and people could correct me if I am. But like maybe they just, oh, there's a journalist here. I'm not going to argue with my buddy. But like seemed and it's also cultural like less of a rank structure. The dudes just way different military structure in terms of the way they treated each other, acted with each other. To me, it was amazing because I got to learn how the sausage is made in a major insane peer to peer near peer war. Just in the scale of it. Absolutely mind boggling. Everywhere you go, everyone's in uniform. I thought, I'm like, are there really like millions of people fighting this war? Are they just inflating these numbers or something? But there are. Everyone you see is in uniform. And all these buildings are filled with troops and armored vehicles, especially as you get closer to the front away from Kyiv. And the casualties too are. I was like, are there really thousands of people dying here? Just that small sliver of the front that I was at near Turetskirch that day I saw it was I think only 10 wounded that morning. But I asked the medic, I'm like, how many wounded do you have a day? And they're like, we'll have 20 wounded or killed a day. And they're showing me photos of people with their limbs blown off by chunks of artillery. And I got to bring a piece of Russian artillery shrapnel back hunk of metal that if it's moving at 3,000ft per second. It's taking your. Yes.

B (72:03)

Wow. Now, I guess for comparison, I'm not sure if you can even speak to this, but like in Iraq, if you're on like the zero line there, how many Americans would be wounded a day?

A (72:12)

There's no zero line in Iraq. It's asymmetrical warfare. So it's, you're on a patrol base and then there's insurgents all around. All around, but not as in, not as intense. It's not like there's no front line is how it was when I was there. There was, you know, a period of the war where there was like a front, but I was there during the occupation phase and.

B (72:37)

But, but in any, you know, like sort of patrolling area, would there be like as 20 wounded or, you know, casualties that would be high for the Americans per day?

A (72:48)

Yeah, the, the amount of casualties I saw when I was in Iraq during the period I was there was there would usually be, I think it was like one or two Iraqi police would get wounded or killed per week. Here you're seeing 15 or 20 in just this small section get killed or wounded per day. And so multiply that by a week and you've got, you know, that's, and you, and then multiply it by that. Okay, so that's a 10, 15 sec. Kilometer section of the front. Multiply that by. It's a 1250 kilometer. Then you start, you're like, oh, okay, it is like a thousand.

B (73:26)

Yeah. And certainly some sections are going to be, you know, more hostile than others, but you kind of average it out.

A (73:30)

Yes.

B (73:30)

I'm curious about the civilians that are in these areas. Like, like Kursk and things like that.

A (73:35)

Evacuated.

B (73:36)

They're all gone.

A (73:37)

Yes. And so like there's military evacuations, there's martial law in this country. So every, no matter where you go, every 20, 30 kilometers is a checkpoint. There are SBU, you know, like our version of the FBI, that are checking IDs, making sure you're not a deserter, making sure you're not a spy, asking the password code word that only Ukrainians know.

B (74:03)

So are there Russian civilians in any of these areas? Like obviously, I know like my, my.

A (74:07)

Fixer was he was born in Russia. My guide that drove. So let me give you, if you don't mind, I'll give you a quick. Just like the stuff that I couldn't talk about in the videos that I put out were like the backstory of it. So just to even get to Ukraine, you have to fly to Poland to the east or sorry, The West. Poland. A little bit more to the West. Yeah. So I flew into Warsaw, and from Warsaw, you have to take a train that is 17 hours, and there's, like, a sleeper car in it. It's really cramped, tiny car. And that train for 17 hours gets you to Kiev. And Kiev is. You can see the. That there's a war happening here. A lot of soldiers, but people go out at night and get drinks and have fun. And it's a really beautiful, nice city. There's a curfew. Can't go out past. I think it's like, 12 or 1 or something. Or you, you know, might get questioned.

B (75:10)

If, you know, Eastern Europeans, that's pretty early.

A (75:14)

Yeah.

B (75:14)

Yes.

A (75:15)

They go out till, like, six, seven in the morning with their discotheque.

B (75:19)

Yeah. Americans. Listen, it's been like, that's the curfew of Arizona.

A (75:23)

Yeah.

B (75:23)

New York.

A (75:24)

That's how we're pregaming.

B (75:26)

Yeah, exactly.

A (75:27)

So. So I take the train into Kiev, and I'm like, I can't wait to get out of Kyiv. Like, I want to get further east. I want to see if I can get to the front and who's on.

B (75:36)

The train from Poland.

A (75:38)

Like, it's all women because there's very few men. Because as martial law, the country's in lockdown. You can't. You don't really see any men under 60 on the train. So it's people that are probably going to see their family. Women, they're going to see their family.

B (75:54)

That maybe the women evacuated to.

A (75:55)

Women and children who are going to see family in Poland or in Europe. And very. Maybe one or two men I saw on the train who were over 65 going into Kiev. Right. And as soon as we get there, I'm antsy. I want to get out. And my fixer advises me, like, no, let's talk to some diplomats here. Let me show you the memorials. Let me give you a sense of my country and, like, it'll be good if we spend a little bit of time here. So I spend one. I think it was a night there, and you get woken up at, like, midnight by this app on your phone that tells you that there's bombing raids happening and just have to, like, turn it off. At a certain point, you're supposed to go to the bomb shelter, but I'm, like, too tired. Just gonna sleep through this. And I'm really glad that I spent that time in Kyiv because I met with. I had the opportunity to get drinks with some intelligence agents who. It's. It's like, guys that are like our, our version of the CIA. Right. And I'm, I just get annihilated with these guys and we're like swapping stories about like, you know, because we, we're allies in a way. We're, they, we have a mutual respect for each other.

B (77:22)

I also mentioned, I, I imagine there's a similar cut, you know what I mean? Like you and these guys, despite being different countries, causes, nationalities, potentially religions, is, you know, you guys are the same type of guy.

A (77:35)

Yes. And that, and that's like we're the type of people who want to serve our country. Whether it's. They want to serve Ukraine, I want to serve America and I want to tell their story and they want me to tell it right. But they don't know if they can trust me because a lot of people that go there and want to like, like blow up their spot expose.

B (77:54)

Yeah. They also don't know your agenda. Like Ukrainians are getting shit faced every night. They're not taking it seriously.

A (77:59)

Right.

B (77:59)

I'm sure there's pieces like that that come out.

A (78:01)

They're, they're, these guys are familiar with like the videos that I've done over the years. So they know that I cover Ukraine in like, let's be honest, a pretty positive light for them. So they're, I would say probably cautiously optimistic that we're aligned on a lot of our values. And I'm trying to figure out if. Because when I went to Iraq I thought that it was gonna be very, I thought the people there want us to give them freedom. And like when I got there, it's very much not that. So I'm going to Ukraine thinking these people want democracy, they want to be a part of the west. They want to fight against these evil or these authoritarians. But I'm like also thinking in my head maybe it's going to be the same situation where I'm be let down. And they're like, these are bad dudes, they're corrupt, they're assholes. And so we're feeling each other out and we're, there's these, I don't know what type of drink that they have there, but this is crazy. It's like red makes Red Bull look like decaffeinated.

B (78:57)

Yeah.

A (78:57)

And it's mixed with I don't know what kind of vodka, probably Russian and pre workout moonshine.

B (79:04)

Yeah, that's it.

A (79:05)

Yeah. I'm turned and we're like, they're teaching me how to curse in Ukrainian and we're like how to do different, like Saluds. And we're just getting a feel for each other. He's like, I like you. Like, you're a good guy. You're not like some of these other people that come through here. Like, I like you, too. And he's. And he's like, what. What would you. What are you trying to get out of here? I'm. I really. You know, I want to know the truth. I want to see what's happening here for myself. And he's like, you know, I get you into Kursk, I get you to Russia, and I, like, put down the shot. And I'm like, no one. You don't. You guys don't let anyone go to Kursk. Like, no Western journalists are allowed there. The Russian government is prosecuting journalists that go there. They're. You know, if you go to Venezuela, you go to Uzbekistan, go to Turkey, you're going to get arrested on your passport if you go to Kursk because you're illegally entering Russia without your passport being stamped. And he's like, I know the guy who runs pr, public relations who does the communications for the Kursk operation, and I'll get you in. And I'm like, you know, you hear a lot of people promise you this and that. Like, yeah, man, I'll go, like, hook.

B (80:31)

Hook it up after a couple drinks. You know, everyone's got a. Everyone's got something to offer.

A (80:34)

Yeah, Yeah. I figure I'm like, this guy's full of shit. And then, like, a few days later, they're setting it up. They're given time and date and where to be. And so by spending this time in Kyiv and getting to know these people and giving it the right. You know, like, doing it right, instead of just rushing into this and trying to, like. Because some people do that. They go. They try to, like, just elbow their way into the front. Like, you don't want to do that. You want to. If you're in somebody's house, you play by their rules. And so I was fortunate enough to be, like, one of the only Western journalists to be able to go to curse before the withdrawal.

B (81:17)

Wow. Now, how can you be sure that you're getting the most honest look? Because I believe you when you say, like, oh, I'm looking for the truth. But if they're ushering you in knowing that you have a PR presence, how can you be sure that you're getting the real.

A (81:30)

No, I think that they took me on a. Like, a. What they wanted me to see what they wanted the world to see. I think it's my job to acknowledge that and say, like, this is what they want you to see. And in the video, at some points I say, like, they told me, you know, they've made a big show of how the Russians are pounding their own civilians and that they're not killing civilians. And I'm like, that didn't really resonate with me because I saw them at other points, like, Ukrainians are bombing civilian houses too. Like, it's our job to try to see through what is. Yeah, there's some truth to what they're showing me, but they're also, this is what they want to show me.

B (82:16)

Right. And there also can be an omission of truth, which there could be. You're getting a certain perspective, which is true, but it might be, you know, the most severe element might be part of the truth.

A (82:27)

And the way I look at it is like, like it's not my job to, like, I have to go to Russia now and like, also report on the Russian side. There's plenty, there's plenty of people doing that. And I, I encourage people to find those resources and to look at what they're saying. Like, look at what RT is saying. What. But we also, I think, have to tell their side of the story. And like, undoubtedly civilians are getting, we're getting killed. Anywhere war goes, innocent people are dying and it's awful. Like, so I didn't want my trip to be like a trip through North Korea where they, they show you through like the nice supermarket. But also I wanted to tell their side of the story because if, if, if I don't tell an American audience their side of the story, if I don't give them a platform and a loudspeaker, like, who will? Because the Russians, they have a loudspeaker. There are people telling their side of the story. Right.

B (83:31)

Which I think is fruitful, again, in the way that you're showing this side. I know people criticize Tucker and other journalists that go to Russia, but I actually think his conversation with Putin was really enlightening and put the whole thing in perspective where it's like, oh, I can see why this aggression is happening from his perspective. And again, I think it'd probably be maybe short sighted, futile to basically be like, oh, one person is wholly right and one person is wholly wrong and only one side is committing atrocities, another one isn't. That's the nature of war, is that both sides are going to do wrong and you can maybe measure it on a scale of who's doing more. And that's probably up for debate. But, yeah, I think that showing in good faith the side that you've been shown and being transparent, be like, hey, this is what I saw. I don't, I don't think that there's, you know, any, any fault in that.

A (84:25)

I tried also to focus a lot on the logistics of it, talk about, like, the tactics of it as much as I could, because they very, they very much wanted to push the. They had a story they wanted to tell by giving me access. They wanted to tell the story that, hey, we're not, you know, essaying and we're not murdering and killing and pillaging. That's the story they wanted to tell. And I told that story. And I think that it's true to the degree that I told it. But there's also the side that I'm more interested in telling, which is like, look at the logistics of their 24 7. They're running thousands of trucks up this one road and in and out of here to resupply it. And they have to rotate the tr, like, you know, that piece of it, which was the majority of the video. So, um, you know, I didn't feel, I didn't feel like I'm going on some, like, just propaganda tour to tell their story. I'm telling what I. The piece that I know, which is the ground level troops, tactics, strategy. And then on top of that, yeah, I'm interested in the geopolitics of it and the other side of it, but that's, to me, 10% of it.

B (85:35)

No, I'm curious, like, now that, you know, based off what you've seen and kind of what you've been updated with in, I guess, a couple things. One, in the time that Trump cut off aid to Ukraine, were you speaking with any of your contacts there, trying to get, you know, intel on what's going on. Did Russia use that as an opportunity to strike?

A (85:53)

They, they absolutely exploited the gap. They tried to. They did that last time, too, when American aid was shut off in 2024. And I spoke with the Ukrainians and they're very. They felt betrayed. And it's best. It's good to acknowledge that, that Europe and Ukraine felt betrayed. There's a lot of different ways of looking at it. You know, it seems to have accelerated Europe's mindset that they need to double down on defense and invest in defense, which is something that America has been asking for for years. In three years, Russia has been at war and, like, they still haven't really pedal to the metal. And a lot of Times with what you would call the defense burden or burden sharing or the freeloader dilemma. Is that, like, why would you stop taking money from your guarantor unless they cut it? Right.

B (86:48)

And why would, you know, England, France, Germany, why would they support Ukraine if America's already footing the bill and getting everything settled?

A (86:56)

Yeah.

B (86:57)

Interesting. So I'm curious now kind of where things stand. If you had to guess, and I'm going to put you in a difficult spot to try to see the future, if you had to guess kind of how things play out the next six months, would you put money on kind of more stalemate negotiations, quasi sort of ceasefire? Do things accelerate from here?

A (87:19)

There are several directions that it could go in. There's different likelihoods of those directions. I'm not confident enough to give a likelihood on which direction it'll go, but I'll say that it could either be that Trump starts to pressure Russia and starts to pressure them to. Because he's unhappy with the speed that they're moving, that they're not get. Both sides are not reaching a ceasefire as fast as you like, and he starts pressuring Russia, which could lead to escalation, or it could lead to Russia agreeing to a ceasefire.

B (87:54)

Interesting.

A (87:55)

So I think that's what's on the horizon.

B (87:58)

So high likelihood that Trump will put pressure, where that goes is kind of.

A (88:02)

It's a possibility. I don't even know if it's highly likely, but it's definitely a possibility that he puts pressure on Russia at this point. It's also a possibility that he puts more pressure on Ukraine to accept the concessions to Russia's ceasefire that we read earlier. Those different points, like, maybe he tries to pressure Ukraine into accepting that. It's, I would say, at this point, very difficult for me to say.

B (88:30)

Yeah, yeah, it's interesting just seeing so much talk, I guess, you know, on Twitter, both sides of people saying, like, oh, Trump is. Is, you know, like Putin's little crony, and he's, like, doing the bidding of Putin. I think that probably oversimplifies it. Like, I wonder if it's similar to, like, you know, like a bully picking on a kid, and then the school being like, okay, you're both suspended. And instead of being like, oh, you're siding with the bully, it's like, hey, I don't care. I just want this to stop to further my own personal agenda of being, you know, a president that, you know, made peace, to focus on other issues. And if that means, you know, there's a little bit of unfairness I don't care is kind of the way that I'm kind of seeing it. I'm curious if you think that's. That's somewhat accurate.

A (89:11)

He is, from his perspective and what, from their communications, he's portraying himself as the arbiter. Zelensky didn't want that. He wanted the United States in his corner, publicly saying that they're in his corner.

B (89:24)

Whatever you need, we got you.

A (89:26)

We got your back. Russia's the aggressor. They're the problem. Trump's. What he's saying is that you don't reach a deal by doing that. You don't get to a deal by doing that. Again, I'm just everyday infantryman. I don't know the intricacies of negotiations, but I do understand a little bit about how people work, and I feel like I at least can see what they're arguing. I do think, you know, some people, you hate Trump. I try to be very nonpolitical in my videos and my analysis, like when I was covering Biden and the military stuff he did. It's like, America's doing this. This is what America is doing. This is what the people who. America elected Biden, and this is what the country's doing, like, is for me, it's the same analysis. This is what Trump's doing that he was elected. This is what America's doing. And America right now has decided that it's in their interest to be the arbiter, to be a neutral arbiter, to, like you said, to, like, not play favorites and to say, and to say, like, you're both not going to be happy with this. Is that going to work? Like, we're, we're going to find out over the next. These, these negotiations take years. Vietnam, I think it took, I don't remember exactly three years or something for them to reach a peace agreement.

B (90:46)

Not a month, not a couple weeks.

A (90:48)

No.

B (90:49)

Right.

A (90:49)

It takes a long time. This might go a lot faster. We don't know. You know, you look at other wars that ended in peace agreements and you see how difficult they are and involved and the back and forth and the like. You know, you have to slowly and sure, but, like, reach, figure out what they're willing to accept, what you're willing to accept. Are either of you ready to accept that military means is not your best option? Maybe one of you feels like it is. So, like, this is the back and forth and back and forth.

B (91:23)

Also. The American political system also creates an interesting dilemma as well, because if both sides are unhappy with the Potential agreement. Could they look at each other and be like, hey, we're going to wait until Trump's out of office and then try to renegotiate with the new administration and see what America brings us next. And maybe they're playing more favoritism with Ukraine, and then, in which case Ukraine almost has an interest in sort of stalling, and Russia might have an interest in stalling, saying, like, hey, we're just going to run this back and keep on mowing you guys down. And it's possible that Trump might not be able to solve it within the next three years.

A (92:01)

It's this, like you just pointed out, there are legitimately hundreds of variables that are going into this. What's Russian population's opinion on ending the war, and on what terms are they okay with ending the war? What is the Ukrainian population's opinion on what it. You know, because what their people think is a very important factor, not just what the leaders think. And also. Yeah, like, just so many variables that go into this is why I say it's like the most crazy negotiation. And why, if. If I were to also add onto it, like, a layer of just, like, political bias and like, I hate Trump or I love Trump, like, to me, that doesn't serve the analysis.

B (92:51)

Yeah. Sort of beside the point. It's like, what is happening and what could or will happen in the future. And your feelings are sort of, you know, not really important in that regard.

A (93:00)

I'll say this. Whether you hate him or love him, to say that he's like a pawn of Putin, I feel like if he were, wouldn't he just not have restarted aid and not have restarted military aid because now they're once again giving intelligence and weapons.

B (93:15)

Right.

A (93:16)

So, like, if you're. What I think is that he's. He is. And I don't know if this is a good idea or not, but, like, it seems like he's 100% wants to shift the focus to China because the United States is not going to be able to counter China, and we don't. I know this is a topic for a different episode, but I'll just say that, like, the United States cannot counter China if they have to devote any percentage of their resources, their air defense munitions, any of that to Ukraine, because they need every single air defense munition for the Pacific. They need it and more. Right. And so, you know, yeah, if you're. Any of your attention is there, you're. You're screwed. And the idea that, like, Europe is going to help in a war with China.

B (94:03)

Yeah.

A (94:04)

Probably very unlikely.

B (94:05)

Yeah. They're barely just getting going on a war on their own continent.

A (94:08)

Right. And then also, like, what are they gonna devote there? Like. Like, UK and France has some ships. Yeah. But I mean, the majority of the combat power for that war, I think, is going to be from the countries that are already in the Pacific. And that's like a different episode, but I'll just say that's what I'm looking at.

B (94:25)

Yeah. And who knows what China's interest in keeping this war going looks like? I mean, they. They seem to have some benefit, and whether they're actively, you know, stoking or somehow creating conflict or not.

A (94:39)

Yeah. And I don't. There's arguments to be made that it's in their interest. That's not in their interest. Definitely a discussion that I feel like we should have, because the China thing and the Iran thing is stuff that is about to, I think, hit the forefront in ways that we have not seen in a long time.

B (95:00)

Hmm. Okay. Well, we'll save that for another episode. Cappy, I appreciate this. Thank you for your astute analysis, as always. If I'm interested in seeing more of your analysis, I can go to Capi Army.

A (95:11)

You can? Yeah. New channel.

B (95:13)

Can we pull it up? Actually, I want to see.

A (95:15)

There it is. That's it.

B (95:16)

Nice.

A (95:17)

Yes. So we have not launched yet, and we've got 15,000 subscribers that have already come to the channel. And we're launching. By the time this episode is up, we'll. We will have launched.

B (95:28)

Gabe, hit him with a subscribe, dude. Come on now. There you go, gang. Adding even more. Thank you so much. I appreciate it. And, yeah, look forward to our next convo. If you've made it to the end of this episode, that's because you rock with us. And for that, we rock with you. You are sophisticated. You enjoy honest, true communication. A highbrowed type of person that understands this History is not just dates and names. It is a tapestry of human triumph and tragedy, from the day Nostradamus made his first prophecy to the morning Paul Revere took his midnight ride from ancient oracles to modern revolutionaries. That is why I need you. If you have not already, please sign up for Today in History. Our free newsletter, Today in History brings you the stories that matter, the moments that changed everything, and the secrets hidden in time. Join thousands of history enthusiasts who get their daily journey through time. Don't let another day of history pass you by. Take the conversation to your inbox. Sign up now through the QR code or link in the description today in history. Because history's stories shape tomorrow's world. Thank you for watching the episode. We'll see you next time.