Capital Decanted

S3 | Episode 1: The Space Economy: Are We Entering a New Space Race?

Hosts: John Bowman (A) & Aaron Filbeck (C)
Guests: Luke Ward (B, Baillie Gifford), Emma Norsett (D, T. Rowe Price)
Date: October 14, 2025

Episode Overview

In this season three opener, John Bowman and Aaron Filbeck dive deep into the transformative rise of the "space economy"—a $600 billion market expected to double by 2030. Dissecting the historical catalysts, recent technological shifts, cost curve breakthroughs, emerging business models, and geopolitical complexity, the episode asks: Are we entering a new space race? And how should investors, policymakers, and innovators navigate this new frontier? Through narrative, expert interviews, and a healthy dose of sci-fi nostalgia, the hosts analyze whether space is poised to become the next foundational platform economy.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Space Economy—Why Now?

• The ubiquity of space-based technology underpins modern life, far beyond “fantasy” or pop culture images.
  [03:30] A: “Modern supply chain and transportation, climate monitoring, farming, mining, emergency response, electric vehicles, the Internet of things and much else are already deeply dependent on space assets to function.”
• The commercial space sector is fast moving from the domain of governments and astronauts to that of startups, entrepreneurs, and everyday investors.

2. History & Forcing Functions

Historic milestones are not abstract—they created today’s ecosystem.

Origins of the Space Race

• Fictional inspiration (H.G. Wells, Orson Welles’ “War of the Worlds”) seeded public fascination.

• The Cold War drove a geopolitical “forcing function,” with each superpower seeking symbolic, military, and scientific dominance (Sputnik, the Apollo missions).

  [19:34] A quoting JFK:

  “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”

• Massive government funding, but no business model—there was “no incentive or case for economic gain or sustainability.”

• Commercial seeds: Geostationary satellites (Syncom 3, 1964) offered broadcast potential, but remained novelties.

Shifts Toward Commercialization

• The rise (and frequent fall) of commercial ventures in the 80s/90s (Arianespace, Iridium, Globalstar) spotlighted both the failure of early business models and unfriendly cost structures.
• Legislative support emerges:
  • The U.S. Commercial Space Launch Act (1984)
  • 1998 amendment promoting private sector leadership
  • 2004 inclusion of commercial human spaceflight

The Era of Stagnation

• Tragedies (Challenger 1986; Columbia 2003) and cost-overruns shift NASA focus to safety and routine, with little innovation.
• Spark needed: Elon Musk and SpaceX bring Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things,” leveraging radical cost discipline.

3. Technological Breakthroughs—Crushing the Cost Curve

Revolution in Launch Costs

• Early rockets: ~$1,000,000/kg to orbit (Vanguard, 1958)

• Saturn V (1969): ~$10,000/kg

• Stagnation or regress until SpaceX enters the fray (early 2000s onwards)

• Falcon 9 (2010s): ~$1,600/kg—driven by reusable rockets

• Starship (next-gen): Target <$100/kg, maybe even $10/kg—nears inexpensive terrestrial logistics.

• Reusability is the “game changer.”

  • Rockets no longer destroyed with each flight; boosters can be reflown hundreds of times.

• Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, and others: new entrants and more competition.

  [47:56] A (to Luke Ward):

  "Getting this cargo out of the atmosphere is the biggest headwind to innovation—gravity is this super expensive element..."

What’s Unlocked by Cheaper Access?

• Modular, scalable “real estate” in space:
  [48:29] B (Luke Ward):

  “If we could launch 200 International Space Stations for the same price today, how much real estate does that represent?... You can get more and more sci-fi as you go between the kinds of things which should move up.”

• Orbital manufacturing, pharma, and R&D with microgravity advantages

• Rapid, global point-to-point delivery (anywhere in <1h)

  [54:04] B:

  “There’s a $20 billion or more market in premium next day delivery globally. If you’re able to launch a starship for that kind of cost, you can get anywhere in the world in 40 minutes.”

4. Market Sizing and Segmentation

The Stack Today

[64:45] C (Aaron Filbeck)

• Global Space Economy ~$615B; projected to $1–2T by 2030–2040.
• Stack Breakdown (from Aaron):
  1. Launch & Logistics: $10B
  2. Infrastructure in Orbit: $20B
  3. Infrastructure on Ground: $155B
  4. End-User Applications (ag, finance, security): $105B
  5. Data/Analytics (AI, geospatial, etc.): $4B
  • Private sector, especially in satellite/launch, is half the total; the rest is government spending.

Emma Norsett’s Framing: “Space for Earth” vs. “Space for Space”

[68:38] D (Emma Norsett):

“I think the universe has been divided between ‘space for Earth’ and ‘space for space.’... When we’re looking into space for Earth, this is more immediate, accessible opportunity... Space for space... might feel a little bit more sci-fi.”

• Space for Earth: Communications, mapping, defense, weather, delivery.
• Space for Space: In-orbit manufacturing, debris removal, energy creation, health/biotech, interplanetary exploration.

Notable Companies and Trends

• Firefly, Rocket Lab, Axiom, Endurosat (sat buses), Anduril, Impulse Space (defense)

• SpaceX is viewed as the “platform” of launch; others build adjacent or complementary applications.

  [60:51] D:

  “I don’t think that space as a category would be investable today if it wasn’t for SpaceX... Most of the companies... are building around it to create a more fulsome landscape and allow for more use cases.”

5. Future Opportunities

• Space Tourism: Early, “ultra-wealthy,” but improving with costs.
• Orbital Manufacturing: “Anything that can be made on the ground can be made in space.” (microgravity allows new materials, proteins, etc.)
• Resource Extraction: Asteroids, Moon mining—AI, robotics necessary.
• National Security/Defense: Returns as a forcing function; surveillance, intelligence, “space as high ground.”
• Colonization: Moon bases, Mars—massively capital intensive, but no longer science fiction.
• Edge Computing, Cybersecurity, Debris Removal: New investable themes.

6. Geopolitics—the New Space Race?

The Return of Geopolitical Forcing Functions

• Deepening divide:

  • U.S.-led Artemis Accords: 56 signatories; cooperative, peaceful intent
  • China/Russia ILRS (International Lunar Research Station): 17 countries
  • Only Thailand and Senegal have joined both; rest have “picked sides.”

  [84:06] A:

  "There's no country that is not now concerned about this for national security purposes. All of them want to be in the game..."

• Middle East, EU: Seek “Switzerland” status or independence; refuse to rely solely on U.S./SpaceX or China’s stack.

Regulation vs. Fragmentation

• Legacy treaties (1967 Outer Space Treaty) were not designed for commercial actors or modern tech.

• Luke Ward observes government-corporate balance will flip as space becomes viable for business or for national defense.

  [86:20] B:

  "Any nation... if you're kept out from the party in one place, that's not going to stop you from having the desire to succeed..."

Need for New Governance

• Hosts and Luke Ward argue for a "UN for Space" to negotiate property rights, militarization, debris, operational windows.
• Call for updated regulation—today's treaties are not sufficient for current innovation rates or corporate influence.

7. Public-Private Collaboration—Key to Growth

• The commercial space race cannot succeed alone; government needs private innovation, and investors need clear policy.
• Artemis is a positive early model (Airbus, Lockheed, SpaceX, Blue Origin cooperate).
• The “synergy between space policy, pioneering business models, and a vibrant space economy” is the only way to move from novelty to platform.

[94:39] A:

"I mentioned this idea of public private cooperation... we need both for this to be effective not just in international standard setting bodies, but in actual development, funding, creation, design..."

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 19:34 | "We choose to go to the moon... not because they are easy, but because they are hard." | JFK (quoted by A) | | 36:46 | "He called his first SpaceX rocket the Falcon after Han’s Millennium Falcon." | A to C | | 41:07 | "It was the Falcon Series... that continued to put downward pressure on costs, ending with that Falcon Heavy, which estimated cost to be around $1,600 per kilogram." | C | | 48:29 | "If we could launch 200 international space stations for the same price today, how much ... equipment might we be able to put into orbit?" | B | | 54:04 | "If you’re able to launch a starship for that kind of cost, you can get anywhere in the world in 40 minutes..." | B | | 60:51 | "I don’t think that space as a category would be investable today if it wasn’t for SpaceX..." | D | | 84:06 | "All of them want to be in the game and are finding ways to fund, support, develop, exploit space for purposes of defense." | A | | 94:39 | “…public private cooperation… the key enabler… is synergy between a supportive space policy framework, pioneering business models and the development of a vibrant space economy.” | A (quoting Michael Suffredini) |

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:00-12:00]: Space economy foundation and historical context
• [12:00–23:00]: Sputnik, Cold War, and the role of forcing functions
• [36:00-47:00]: Elon Musk, SpaceX, and the “lollapalooza of opportunity”
• [47:00-54:00]: Rocket cost breakthroughs and commercial unlocks (Luke Ward insights)
• [54:00-60:00]: Visionary use-cases and market potential at $10/kg
• [60:00-65:00]: SpaceX as the “platform”; how the entire ecosystem builds around it (Emma Norsett)
• [64:45-73:00]: Sizing the market, key categories, “space for Earth” vs. “space for space”
• [73:00-81:00]: Investment themes—tourism, manufacturing, defense, colonization, cybersecurity
• [81:00-94:00]: Geopolitical stacking, regulation, and international standards
• [94:00–end]: The future—a call for public/private alignment and sustainable growth

Conclusion

Capital Decanted’s most “ambitious episode” frames space not as a science fiction fantasy, but as the next digital platform—one as transformative as radio, the internet, or mobile. True acceleration will demand not just visionary capital, but a new compact between governments and businesses, along with robust governance for the risks and externalities soon to orbit us all.

Hosts’ message:
“Dreams aside, the real investable opportunities are already reshaping the mundane and the cosmic. The new space race is as much about business models, cooperation, and shared stewardship as it is about rockets and footprints on Mars.”