John Bowman (4:18)
I think new packaging is a good way to put it. And that progressive discovery over the last two and a half years. And we're going to walk through that experience with you listeners today. But I found in that light a lot about this background segment. In some sense I've been rehearsing this episode in my head for a year and a half. But here's the approach I plan to take. I'm going to first take you back and bring you on our adventure rather than answer the question I just posed. Christy, I want to bring you into the experience and perhaps I'm a bit self absorbed in my own delusion here, but I think you're really going to learn from and enjoy the narrative through the eyes of how we encountered and have we discovered and we found out a lot of this information and got a better understanding, a more crisp understanding of what TPA really is. Oddly, what this means is I'm not going to define TPA in a proper thorough sense until a little bit later. So on the contrary, I want you to discover along with us the meandering, uneven, unexpected journey that we took and the fellowship that joined us on this quest. Now, certainly I'm going to be dropping a lot of breadcrumbs on this expedition, so if you aren't familiar at all with the concept of tpa, you're going to have a pretty strong architectural rendering, you might say, of what it is even before we fill out and flesh out your understanding later. But I'll make sure we circle back and tighten up our understanding in preparation for our discussions. And that discussion, by the way, a little bit later will be with Ben Simile, who is the CIO of Future Fund, and he was one of the authors Future Fund and Ben explicitly of this paper. And Jane Bach, who is Head of Investments for Asia and also a KAIA Board member, I should mention at wtw, who was also a contributor. So before we do that though, let's get started and relive the last year and a half or so. And the adventure begins in a Starbucks, of all places, in Singapore in the autumn of 2022. And I had just arrived from a few days in Sydney where I had met with i3 the Investment Innovation Institute, which is an Aussie media and content producer for institutional investors. And by the way, short side note, for all you listeners, what Woter and Teek have done with that outlet is outstanding. So I'd highly commend the i3 podcast and their editorial work regardless of this particular topic. But anyways, based on that discussion, I had read a fascinating interview on the plane to Singapore that they had recently conducted with a gentleman by the name of Chum Sui Chang who was the recently appointed at the time head of Total Portfolio Strategy at gic. And this topic was an interview about total Portfolio approach. Now, to be clear, as Christie just said, we had heard the vernacular at that point a growing buzz on the topic and what did it really mean to have a holistic view of the portfolio? Well, of course we all do that. But there were a few lines in this interview that started to strike me and really pluck an interest. And those were the following. First, there was a very clear condemnation of strategic asset allocation's main shortcoming. Chum said in that interview, quote, Most SaaS are blunt, focusing on broad asset classes and their historical performance. However, today we face several policy and macroeconomic inflection points that could significantly change the trajectory of markets. End quote. Second, there was also this assertion that TPA in particular gives them clear investment goals and allows for competition for capital amongst all investment opportunities. And we're going to unpack that quite a bit here in a few moments. And as a result of these two realities in the interview, given GIC's long term preservation mandate, they believe GIC believe that TPA gives them an edge in delivering those outcomes over traditional strategic asset allocation models. Now, the interview goes on to say that despite all this, that nearly nobody was doing this, perhaps five to six funds in the whole world, and that was it. So, Christie, I was simply arrested. That's a long flight, so there's plenty of time to be arrested by your reading on the plane. The reality was one of the largest and most respected capital pools in the world in GIC, estimated to be over a trillion Singh, or about 800 billion US, commencing a very disruptive transition to TPA that takes a lot of courage and foresight. So these were very bold claims that took my understanding of a total portfolio perspective to a whole new level. And here was my main revelation, and this is part of my answer. If Christie were to have asked me the same question on what I thought of TPA previously, TPA in my mind suddenly shifted from no longer just derivative overlays to allow for dynamic tilting of the portfolio, nor was it just a holistic risk management function, which I've come to realize are what you might call two artificial forms of total fund management that are often cited. This model that I was hearing for the first time was an evolution of the entire portfolio construction process as we know it. It wasn't necessarily throwing everything out, but it was a huge evolution along a continuum that was starting to take place. So I'm arrested, I arrive in Singapore and chum is gracious enough to spend a lot of time with me in that said Starbucks, walking me through the tenets of this approach. And the most memorable moment of that meeting was when he described TPA as what he called the fourth realm of portfolio construction evolution. And this gets to my continuum point I just made. These realms weren't chronological stages necessarily, but I would say these are my words, not his, but progressive levels of model sophistication that we've experienced over the last 50 years or so. So first, he said was the Norwegian model, which is largely 60, 40, or even in some cases 80, 20, pure public exposure to equity and fixed. Basically they own the whole global market on the public side. And then second, of course, the Endowment model. Now this was incubated, as we said in a prior episode, by the ford foundation over 50 years ago through a grant to the Common Fund. But obviously it came of age under David Swensen's leadership at Yale and most people actually use the Endowment model interchangeably with what they call the Yale model. And the Endowment model expanded the opportunity set well beyond public equity and debt to include substantial private capital and hedge fund allocations. Thirdly, this led to the Canadian Model or the Maple Model, which built further on those diversification benefits of the Endowment model by also empowering the CIO office and staff with much more responsibility and insourcing world class investment talent to the organization. And now as Chum went on the fourth realm, TPA borrows and builds on all these strengths that we've just described in those first few realms, but it liberates the team to design a portfolio that better represents their investment thesis for the future by harnessing all the talent and contributions towards the total portfolio instead of traditional asset class silos. And in the end, the headline the MIC Drop moment for Chum was that GIC thinks that they can harvest 200 to 300 basis points of outperformance versus the traditional SAA approach. So again, I used the word arrested a few moments ago. I continued to be just intrigued. I'm running out of adjectives to describe my intellectual interest, but here we had a few of the most revered asset owners in the world claiming a superior way to deliver long term investment outcomes. And yet there was very little written content, discussion at conferences, formal education or any authoritative white paper that defined this. So if there was such a thing as Content Alpha Christie, this would be it. A topic that was perhaps game changing, aggressively challenged the status quo of nearly the entire establishment. And it was hidden as all good Alpha is in the dark, undiscovered corners of global dialogue. This is the native environment, of course, where Alpha sprouts and where value added thought leadership has its origin. So all of that left me inspired, but with this dilemma, a dilemma on what Kaya's role could be or should be on this topic. What do we possibly have to add with these folks in the room to this conversation? And here's where we came out from our humble beginnings, maybe 21 years ago. Kaya's MO really has been to press the industry forward to build awareness and transparency for formative strategies, you might say, modern capital allocation techniques and evolving trends, all importantly while remaining vigilant in protecting the interests of the investor. And that's why our new brand campaign Next is Here was less a signal defining a new path, a change in strategic course, but rather a bold decree of who we've always been and why we're so different from other professional bodies and credentialing organizations. And it was just that next is here DNA of Kaya that convinced us that every once in a while there's this generational movement or transformative change in the profession that obligates us Kaya to embolden our voice to meet that mission and that brand identity. And that's why I wrote in the executive summary of today's piece that hopefully you read that we believe TPA deserved the mobilizing oxygen that Kaya's global convening power could bring to the topic. So with the help of introductions from chum based on that GIC Starbucks meeting, we began a global roadshow to recruit to see if we could pull together a bit of a team to write this paper. So we were first led to Charles Hyde. Charles is the head of Asset Allocation for New Zealand Super. And by the way, I should give credit to where credit is due here and say that New Zealand super is where all of this really started. All the way back in 2001. After extensive parliamentary debate, New Zealand super was set up to begin pre funding future superannuation or pension payments to its citizens. So imagine that the government had the foresight more than 30 years before outflow payments would even begin to start preparing for it withdraws. Shockingly, even today are still over a decade away. They won't begin until the2030s and won't be material until the2050s. So just a great case study in looking forward from the government. Well, after a setup phase including about a 2 billion initial funding from the government, the fund hired a gentleman named Paul Costello who was running the Superannuation Trust of Australia at the time. And he was brought in to be New Zealand Super's inaugural chief executive. And given the very long time horizon and liquidity drag, as I just mentioned, there wasn't a payment due for decades literally on the portfolio. Paul worked with the board and they call their board the Guardians at New Zealand super, which I think is the coolest thing ever. It's even better than the Avengers. But the Guardians to provide the staff with investment independence to construct a portfolio centered on maximizing total return with an allowable risk tolerance. And all this is going to sound very familiar as this episode progresses and these more simplified levers for portfolio construction eventually metastasize into the standard TPA toolset we now call reference portfolio and absolute return goal, which again we'll get back to later. So Paul, by the way, was recruited a few years later back to Melbourne, where he previously worked to be the first CEO of another fund in our company of Adventurers, Future Fund. So we'll get back to that story in a minute. But Charles Hyde, back to this discussion. He taught us that TPA is more what he called a, quote, state of mind than a uniform process or policy. And he underscored this idea of competition for capital I mentioned a little bit ago from Chum's interview with the idea that every marginal dollar of capital is competing for attention at the whole fund level. And as such, organizational silos around asset class specialty, trying to fill up their buckets, determined through the strategic asset allocation exercise, was a complete antithesis to the way they think. So they were intently focused on maintaining the broadest possible lens to assess the true opportunity cost of every decision. And by the way, I love this because it rhymes with a slogan from that very Next is Here campaign that I mentioned because we use this phrase, everything is an alternative. And that's exactly what competition for capital within a TPA framework is meant to do. Everything is an option. And New Zealand super, by the way, is nearly 50 billion US today. So that was New Zealand Super. We next traveled to Toronto, number two on our list. And we were welcomed by Jeff Rubin and Derek Walker of CPP Investments. And Jeff and Derek run the one fund strategy and total portfolio design for the $450 billion pension fund. And CPP was set up in 1997, so it's the oldest of our company here by the government of Canada to invest the proceeds of individual and employer contributions for all of its citizens. But from a tour through historical annual reports, it wasn't until April 1st of 2006 that the reference portfolio and total Portfolio approach were introduced. And literally in each subsequent annual report from 2006 to today, that approach has been further and further refined and advanced. It has evolved every stage and every year since then. Jeff had, by the way, the most succinct definition of anyone we spoke to when he said, quote, TPA is one unified means of assessing risk and return of the whole portfolio, end quote. However, there's another big inflection point just before we leave CPP and their evolution about 10 years ago, so the mid teens that played a hugely influential role in how they specifically execute. Again, this is a continuum of a set of variations on a theme on total Portfolio approach there up in Toronto. And that is the timeline when Andrew Ang, currently BlackRock's head of Factor investing, enters the plot. And some of you might recognize that name as he is now synonymous with factor investing lore. But Andrew at the time was a very well pedigreed and published academic at Columbia for almost 20 years. But he also regularly consulted with large asset owners, one of which was CPP and then the early 2010s. Into the teens, Andrew spent some time as a resident consultant in Toronto, helping CPP reimagine portfolio construction with a factor lens instead of an asset class taxonomy. And shortly after this and just before he joined BlackRock, Andrew published his seminal article as well as a book on that same subject that has gone on to play a role at almost every TPA shop around the world, displacing the SAA buckets that all of us are used to. So we spent a good portion of a morning with Jeff and Derek, who helped us understand their investment process with that very prominent use of factors. Thanks to Andrew. And Jeff articulated his expectation that everyone would eventually be traveling up what he calls this factor pyramid. This is all within the context of tpa. And this departure from asset classes and this direction of travel he articulated for the industry starts from pure mean variance optimization or basically traditional saa, to factor aware, he called it, to factor adjusted and to finally the fully enlightened state of factor optimize, which is where their destination is. Up at cpp, we also spent some time outlining the typical impediments to adopting tpa, namely inertia related to governance, culture and compensation, and how they've tried to overcome some of those challenges. And that's going to become a big, big sub theme again as we continue this conversation. So our last stop, Future Fund in Melbourne with Ben Simield. Now, I've mentioned his name. He'll be on this show in this episode in just a little while. At the time he was the deputy CIO of portfolio construction. But I must insert here, Ben was promoted to CIO in the midst of this project and we got to ask ourselves, Kristi, is that just a coincidence? I don't think so. I'd like to think we had something to do with this big promotion. I'm going to imagine that and we'll ask him this, that we put Ben on the map. I say this in jest, it's absurd, but I'm just going to rest in that. Nonetheless, circling back to our history, you might remember I left you a little cliffhanger listeners, that when I was crediting New Zealand super to have probably been the first place that the original seedlings of TPA were planted. I'd say it, it was at Future Fund where this really flourished. I began to say that only a few short years after New Zealand launched their Super Fund, the founding CEO Paul Casello was poached and moved back to Melbourne to be the founding CEO of Future Fund, Australia's sovereign wealth fund, designed to strengthen the Commonwealth's fiscal position as this population aged in the coming decades. And in Paul's formative development of the Future Fund, he partnered deeply with the consulting and investment advisory team at wtw, who also had embedded TPA tendencies and instincts at the time, even though the language and the jargon hadn't really developed yet. And the head of the Australian practice from WTW working with Paul at the time was a guy by the name of David Neal. Now, interestingly, about a year into their work, Paul hired David to be the Future Fund's first cio. And it was their leadership duo where the reference portfolio and the absolute return goals that Paul had started at New Zealand super fully crystallized with the cultural and governance elements for the first time. And it began resembling today's modern total portfolio approach. So, sadly, Paul passed away in 2018. But if you're interested in naming a founding father of tpa, I think Paul, with a huge assist from David Neal, would have to be about as close to that person as you could get. So back to our chat with Ben at today's $190 billion future fund, he stressed that TPA thinking was threaded throughout every decision, forcing investment teams very intentionally to think about the application to the entire portfolio rather than just their own asset class. And most importantly, the more dynamic opportunistic approach that is TPA allowed for a portfolio. And I love the way he put this, that much better represented the secular view of the staff and board on where the world was going versus where we've been, which is what SAA anchors to compensation at the Future Fund has also been restructured around meeting that total portfolio goal. And last thing I'll mention here very explicitly, I want to underscore this because this is much more semantics to Future Fund, but they prefer the phase joined up portfolio to describe this entire movement as they believe it not only distinguishes from the counterfeit versions I alluded to earlier that aren't fully tpa, but it more deeply humanizes and I love that the importance of alignment and unity of talent, incentives, processes and decision making that TPA requires. Now, what I haven't mentioned as we've sequenced through these four relationships and the multiple discussions of these asset owners is that shockingly, fulfillingly, each one was thrilled to participate in authoring and founding asset owners. Now, what I haven't mentioned as we sequenced through these four relationships and multiple discussions is that shockingly, fulfillingly, each one was thrilled to participate in authoring and developing a definitive summary of tpa. That was elusive, as I mentioned earlier. So we had our four enterprising and founding asset owners on board, representing over 1.5 trillion in AUM. Just thrilled with that. But our little fellowship needed one more additional player. The discovery, and I would call it that, of WTW's prominent early role I just described, particularly across Asia Pacific, in working with funds of various shapes and sizes to transition to TPA was a perspective that we thought was missing. In other words, in addition to complement these case studies at these Big four funds, an unbiased voice elevated beyond a singular personal experience that could speak to lessons learned, common pitfalls, decision trees, successes, failures, and the conditions upon which TPA might be right for you. The reader, the listener, we thought would be a great addition. So WTW's Jane Bach, head of Investments for Asia Kaya board member, who I've just mentioned is a guest today, agreed to write our critical closing piece that helps bring all these lessons from the asset owners to life and so sojourners, that closes out the journey itself. And I hope, as I had expected, that you were able to live vicariously through that retold experience and it was as enjoyable to you as it was to us. Kristi, you alluded to this a moment ago. You came in midstream. I think these four asset owners had given us their nod. We had broke the huddle at that point and said yes, let's go team. But I have to imagine this adventure taught you a lot of things too. Having come in midway through the process.