Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Episode: "A ‘Rain Delay’ for the Energy Transition"

Date: January 20, 2026
Guest: Tom Burton, Chair, Sustainable Energy & Infrastructure Practice, Mintz
Host: Stephen Lacey

Episode Overview

This episode, produced in partnership with Mintz, dissects the current state of the energy transition as it faces a "rain delay." Host Stephen Lacey and Tom Burton analyze the unexpected turbulence of 2025—soaring load growth, political reversals, challenging financing conditions—and forecast how these forces are redefining the trajectory of clean energy, digital infrastructure, and market strategies. Using a sports metaphor, they explore how policy headwinds and digital demand are clashing on the field, challenging companies to adapt quickly as they navigate slower momentum and rising risks.

Key Topics & Insights

1. The Energy Transition “Rain Delay” (00:32 – 02:50)

• Baseball Metaphor Extended:

  • Transition previously in "third inning" (scale & execution), now facing a “rain delay”—progress stalled due to external factors.
  • Quote: “I’d say that we’re in a rain delay.” — Tom Burton [00:48]

• Current State:

  • Short-term boom as renewables rush to capitalize on existing tax incentives before 2026.
  • Expected slowdown post-2026 as the project pipeline thins out.

• Challenging Environment:

  • Former “clean innings” (strong economics, momentum) have given way to turbulence: policy shifts, increased risk, harder and more expensive deals.

    “The clean energy sector, or the energy transition sector, was pitching a no hitter for a little bit. They’ve gotten knocked around by the batters on the political spectrum. And now the game is getting tighter.”
    — Tom Burton [01:28]

2. Market & Policy Forces: The Big Clash (03:09 – 06:57)

• Two Competing Teams:

  • Team Load Growth: Demand from digital infrastructure (data centers, AI, etc.) is a major tailwind.
  • Team Federal Policy: Regulatory weaponization and political hostility—particularly from the federal government—are major headwinds.

• Reconciling Dynamics:

  • Confusion over government rolling back $32 billion of incentives that would help meet rising demand; expectation that real market needs will ultimately drive policy back to renewables.

    “What I think ultimately will happen is that there will be a recognition at the government level that we are in an all of the above world. [...] We saw a bit of a pullback during the first Trump administration, so I’m not surprised by some of the pullback. And maybe it is ultimately a healthy thing to separate the wheat from the chaff. Maybe the highest quality companies come out of this in the same way that, you know, the Googles of the world came out of the Internet darkness.”
    — Tom Burton [03:44]

• Fundamental Market Shift:

  • Companies with deeper capital, longer track records, and agile pivots fare better.

  • Late entrants and undercapitalized developers are likeliest to exit.

  • “Shakeout” expected; those able to model projects with reduced or no tax credits will succeed.

    “[T]he companies that are the most well capitalized, the ones that have been at it longer, who can pivot more rapidly, are able to absorb these changes [...]. Those who are latest to the game, who maybe not be as capitalized or whose projects are the earliest along are the ones that are going to suffer the most.”
    — Tom Burton [05:47]

3. Permitting: The New Bottleneck (06:57 – 10:45)

• Permitting Reform Stalled:

  • There’s bipartisan recognition of the need for streamlined permitting, but local pushback and political weaponization create serious delays.

• State Success and Caution:

  • Massachusetts cited as a positive example: New state law aims to cut renewable permitting time to 12–15 months, fast-tracking appeals.

  • Too soon to judge impact; optimism that similar templates could work at the federal level.

    “What I do see is these rollbacks. [...] The reason why we have blue skies and clean water today is because of the actions taken [...] 50 some odd years ago. [...] Rapid rollbacks without consideration for their impacts on people’s health really will have serious oppositional impacts on future generations.”
    — Tom Burton [08:43]

• Permitting vs. Incentives:

  • Developers experience profound anxiety: without permits, projects cannot even begin, unlike incentives, which can be modeled with or without.

  • Permitting uncertainty is more paralyzing than uncertain tax credits.

    “When you don’t have certainty around permitting, you don’t have a project. Right. So it really doesn’t even let you get out of the gate.”
    — Tom Burton [10:36]

4. Digital Infrastructure: Energy and Data Become Inseparable (10:45 – 13:26)

• Energy as the Limiting Factor:

  • Data center business has shifted from real estate to an energy infrastructure challenge: access to power is now the bottleneck.

  • Project finance and development teams are critical in securing and structuring reliable power for data center clients.

    “The power side has become very, very important. And in fact, so important it’s almost the tail that wags the dog. If you can’t have access to power, you don’t have Interconnect, or you don’t have your own backup power or your own DG site, then you can’t do the data center. There’s plenty of space, there appear to be plenty of chips, but there isn’t enough power.”
    — Tom Burton [11:13]

• Complementary or Competitive?

  • Digital infrastructure and energy are complementary, given available capital.
  • Real competition occurs at the ratepayer level: rising costs, public backlash (example: Ireland moratorium on data centers due to spiking rates).
  • Major challenge is not generation, but transmission/distribution bottlenecks.

5. Financing: Navigating Capital Constraints (13:26 – 14:50)

• The “Missing Middle” in Capital:

  • More growth equity/gap-filling investors are emerging, but overall climate tech investment has declined for three consecutive years.

  • Projects making it to commercial scale have access to infrastructure funds as risk is reduced.

    “Those who were able to find capital in that gap in the last year or two stand a really good chance of making it through on a future basis.”
    — Tom Burton [14:36]

6. Policy Uncertainty & Risk of Losing Ground (14:50 – 16:44)

• Concern for US Innovation:

  • Risk that US will innovate but fail to commercialize as policy uncertainty pushes investment and talent overseas.

  • Clients report foreign (non-US) capital pulling back on US investments.

  • Real threat that if costs rise and supply constraints persist, US companies could increase overseas partnerships or relocation.

    “Foreign businesses that were investing in the US, buying projects, buying companies, operating companies and establishing a US presence are putting those on hold and they're pulling out. [...] Will US companies move overseas or leave the US? I don't know if they would leave at any greater rate than they have been [...] but there is incentive for businesses to leave.”
    — Tom Burton [15:17]

7. Unprecedented Moment: Challenge and Opportunity (16:44 – 18:27)

• Unique Era:

  • Tom Burton hasn’t seen a more complex confluence of pressures and opportunities in decades.

  • Cultural and policy shifts put climate priorities in question, but surging demand creates massive upside.

    “There couldn’t be more opportunity available now than in the last 40 years. […] With this increasing demand, it’s going to create a ton of opportunity for businesses that solve the grid optimization problem, that create software and again, AI. So this data center and AI growth can actually contribute to improving delivery on the grid.”
    — Tom Burton [16:56]

• Potential for New Solutions:

  • Optimism about the rise of grid tech, storage, possibly US-wide geothermal.
  • Transition will span generations; industry called to adapt and seize opportunity.

8. Industry Mood: Optimism vs. Pessimism (18:27 – End)

• Varied Sentiment Among Companies:

  • Some clients remain optimistic: qualifying for tax credits, flexible pivots, viable economics.

  • Others struggle as projects no longer pencil out—outlook dim unless strategies shift.

    “If you can pivot, you can think hard about what the needs are and anticipate that, then…I think there’s really a lot of opportunity.”
    — Tom Burton [18:32]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “I’d say that we’re in a rain delay.”
  — Tom Burton [00:48]

• “The clean energy sector…was pitching a no hitter for a little bit. They’ve gotten knocked around by the batters on the political spectrum. And now the game is getting tighter.”
  — Tom Burton [01:28]

• “Maybe the highest quality companies come out of this in the same way that, you know, the Googles of the world came out of the Internet darkness.”
  — Tom Burton [03:44]

• “When you don’t have certainty around permitting, you don’t have a project.”
  — Tom Burton [10:36]

• “There’s plenty of space, there appear to be plenty of chips, but there isn’t enough power.”
  — Tom Burton [11:13]

• “There couldn’t be more opportunity available now than in the last 40 years.”
  — Tom Burton [16:56]

Segment Timestamps

• 00:32 – 03:09: Where are we in the energy transition? The “rain delay” metaphor.
• 03:09 – 05:47: Policy vs. load growth; what separates winners and losers.
• 05:47 – 06:57: Developer shakeout; who survives changing incentives.
• 06:57 – 10:45: Permitting delays and their outsized impact.
• 10:45 – 13:26: Energy and digital infrastructure merge; the power bottleneck.
• 13:26 – 14:50: Changing capital dynamics for climate tech projects.
• 14:50 – 16:44: Policy uncertainty and threat of losing commercialization edge.
• 16:44 – 18:27: Unprecedented complexity and once-in-a-generation opportunities.
• 18:27 – End: Mixed industry outlooks; optimism reserved for the adaptable.

This summary covers the full substantive discussion between Stephen Lacey and Tom Burton, offering a comprehensive snapshot of the 2026 energy transition landscape, the storm clouds gathering, and where hope remains for industry leaders willing and able to adapt.