Catalyst with Shayle Kann — Five Big Questions About the Future of Energy
Date: October 23, 2025
Host: Shayle Kann
Guest: Andy Lubershain, Head of Research at Energy Impact Partners
Episode Overview
In this episode, Shayle Kann and Andy Lubershain tackle five of the most pressing and open-ended questions shaping the future of the energy sector. The discussion centers on the explosive growth in electricity demand—particularly from AI-driven data centers—and the broader implications for grid infrastructure, technology winners and losers, and how emergent innovations like nuclear, geothermal, and grid-enhancing technologies might scale. The tone is thoughtful, candid, and rooted in decades-long industry experience and investment analysis.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Will Supply-Demand Imbalance in Electricity Ever Reverse?
(Timestamps: 03:31–14:37)
- Current State: The electricity sector is marked by undersupply, with demand outpacing capacity, especially due to AI/data center growth. There are massive interconnection queues and scarcity of key grid components.
- Demand-Side Uncertainty:
- “There’s a lot more uncertainty on the demand side of the equation, largely coming from how much energy data centers are going to be consuming. That’s where you may even get order of magnitude levels of uncertainty in terms of future power demand.”
— Andy Lubershain (00:11) - Nobody knows exactly how big data center/AI load growth could become; industry forecasts for 2035 differ by multiples.
- Risks include an overbuild of data centers in anticipation of demand that may not materialize if AI adoption or technology advances disappoint.
- AI Demand as a "Bubble": There are echoes of a tech bubble, with substantial investments possibly outstripping real economic needs.
- “Bubbles are economic bubbles are the sorts of things that can pop quickly and surprisingly... That is clearly a risk.”
— Andy Lubershain (09:20–10:11)
- “Bubbles are economic bubbles are the sorts of things that can pop quickly and surprisingly... That is clearly a risk.”
- “There’s a lot more uncertainty on the demand side of the equation, largely coming from how much energy data centers are going to be consuming. That’s where you may even get order of magnitude levels of uncertainty in terms of future power demand.”
- Supply-Side Variables:
- The addition of grid power is bounded—tens, not hundreds of gigawatts can be added in the next decade.
- “It’s very difficult to imagine that balance flipping the other way... For it to flip back the other way is practically impossible.”
— Andy Lubershain (04:48)
- Wildcards:
- On-device AI inference (shifting computation to the edge, e.g., mobile phones) or large-scale off-grid data centers could disrupt current forecasts.
- Conclusion: Both predict that five years from now (2030), the market will still be supply-constrained rather than swinging to oversupply.
- “I bet no.” — Andy Lubershain (14:36)
- “Yeah, I bet no as well.” — Shayle Kann (14:37)
2. Winners and Losers in the AI-Driven Electricity Boom
(Timestamps: 14:37–20:14)
- Winners:
- Power system equipment manufacturers—transformers, turbines, conductor, switchgear—are seeing surging demand and multi-year backlogs.
- “If you’re making a way of producing, generating electricity or delivering it, you’re probably doing pretty well right now.”
— Andy Lubershain (15:04)
- “If you’re making a way of producing, generating electricity or delivering it, you’re probably doing pretty well right now.”
- Utilities, as the owners of infrastructure in supply-constrained markets, also stand to benefit.
- Power system equipment manufacturers—transformers, turbines, conductor, switchgear—are seeing surging demand and multi-year backlogs.
- Losers:
- Large electricity consumers dependent on cheap power (e.g., new aluminum smelters, industrials seeking to electrify).
- “If you’re a large industrial electricity load and you want to site a new plant, you are way at the back of the queue right now.”
— Shayle Kann (16:05)
- “If you’re a large industrial electricity load and you want to site a new plant, you are way at the back of the queue right now.”
- Siting and electricity prices have gotten much more challenging; data centers, with higher willingness to pay, crowd out traditional industry.
- “Electricity consumers generally, unfortunately I think are going to be losers from this boom in demand.”
— Andy Lubershain (16:47)
- Large electricity consumers dependent on cheap power (e.g., new aluminum smelters, industrials seeking to electrify).
- Potential Response:
- Emergence of off-grid solutions (microgrids powered by solar, batteries, and backup gas) as an alternative for large loads, both for manufacturing and potentially data centers.
3. Will the US Nuclear Renaissance Mean Many Reactors or Just a Few?
(Timestamps: 20:14–26:03)
- Background:
- The nuclear industry is seeing renewed interest, with dozens of Gen 4/SMR startups. The US DOE is piloting 11 different designs.
- Central Question: Will the renaissance see a "Cambrian explosion" of reactor types, or will almost all capacity use a handful of established designs?
- Analysis:
- Historical patterns (e.g., gas turbines, aviation) suggest market consolidation.
- “There just can't be a Cambrian explosion of new reactors. The industrial logic of the nuclear industry just doesn't lend itself to that.”
— Andy Lubershain (22:01)
- “There just can't be a Cambrian explosion of new reactors. The industrial logic of the nuclear industry just doesn't lend itself to that.”
- For cost reductions, economies of scale, and regulatory learning, regional oligopolies (one or two designs) make most sense.
- Likely scenario is one champion Gen 4 reactor and one SMR per region, not dozens.
- Startups face a “bloodbath” unless they cement market share quickly.
- “I don’t really see the argument why there should ultimately be many, many of them. And if there are ultimately only going to be a couple or a few, then...the ones that are furthest along can ultimately be the ones that are furthest along.”
— Shayle Kann (23:46)
- Historical patterns (e.g., gas turbines, aviation) suggest market consolidation.
- Conclusion: Next 5–10 years will determine which reactor startups, if any, break through, but most will not survive.
4. Is Commercial Enhanced Geothermal at an Inflection Point?
(Timestamps: 27:37–34:49)
- Focus: Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS), specifically with Fervo’s Cape Station project (hoping for 100MW online by 2026).
- Key Question: Will a commercial EGS project be a "watershed" moment, enabling rapid global scale, or is scaling inherently slow?
- Balanced View:
- Yes, a successful project would be symbolic (“flag planted”) and enable other companies to follow, tapping oil & gas skills/supply chains.
- But, scaling will be much slower than solar, due to geological risk, slow project timelines, and complex supply chains.
- “Geothermal unfortunately is inherently going to be a slower technology to roll out even after that starting gun than something like solar was.”
— Andy Lubershain (29:29)
- “Geothermal unfortunately is inherently going to be a slower technology to roll out even after that starting gun than something like solar was.”
- Oil and gas prices also affect labor and supply chain availability—success isn’t just technical, but depends on external market factors.
- Conclusion: Expect a gradual, multi-year scale-up with more visible inflection in the 2030s rather than rapid growth in the late 2020s.
5. Grid-Enhancing Technologies (GETs): Obvious, Yet Slow—Why?
(Timestamps: 34:49–43:03)
- Examples Discussed:
- Advanced conductors (upgrade lines without new towers or permitting)
- Dynamic line ratings (real-time monitoring to safely carry more power)
- Obvious Value: Everyone agrees these “no-brainer” solutions can unlock much more grid capacity, cheaply and quickly, compared to building new transmission.
- Barriers to Adoption:
- Sector conservatism: Utilities’ safety-first approach means long validation and pilot cycles.
- System complexity: Upgrades often involve interconnected changes (substations, grid modeling), increasing deployment friction.
- Market pull: Higher demand now makes adoption more likely, but sector inertia remains.
- “Almost never is there a galvanizing event or moment that suddenly everything moves extraordinarily quickly...A new technology does gain momentum, it usually has a decade plus, maybe a couple decades worth of steam that it can ride on.”
— Shayle Kann (40:55)
- “Almost never is there a galvanizing event or moment that suddenly everything moves extraordinarily quickly...A new technology does gain momentum, it usually has a decade plus, maybe a couple decades worth of steam that it can ride on.”
- “Utility pilot hell” has trapped many promising GETs at pilot or niche use case stage.
- Outlook:
- Momentum is finally building, but the transition will be slow and steady:
- “Inflection point does not mean 1 to 10. It means 1 to 2, and then 2 to 3, and then maybe 3 to 5. And gradually, over the course of 10 to 20 years, you, you get to that 10x.”
— Andy Lubershain (42:07)
- “Inflection point does not mean 1 to 10. It means 1 to 2, and then 2 to 3, and then maybe 3 to 5. And gradually, over the course of 10 to 20 years, you, you get to that 10x.”
- Momentum is finally building, but the transition will be slow and steady:
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
“It is the theme of the decade. It’s certainly the theme of this decade so far.”
— Shayle Kann (03:31), highlighting AI-driven load growth as the overriding force in electricity markets. -
“Bubbles are economic bubbles are the sorts of things that can pop quickly and surprisingly...in some ways that’s pretty much propping up the entire US economy at this point.”
— Andy Lubershain (09:20–10:11), drawing parallels between AI/data center investment and historical economic bubbles. -
“If you’re a large industrial electricity load and you want to site a new plant, you are way at the back of the queue right now.”
— Shayle Kann (16:05), on challenges for traditional industry in the new electricity demand landscape. -
“There just can't be a Cambrian explosion of new reactors. The industrial logic of the nuclear industry just doesn't lend itself to that.”
— Andy Lubershain (22:01), on nuclear market consolidation. -
“Enhanced geothermal unfortunately is inherently going to be a slower technology to roll out even after that starting gun than something like solar was.”
— Andy Lubershain (29:29), on the reality of EGS scaling. -
“GETs technology has been stuck in what we occasionally call at EIP utility pilot hell, which is a bad place to get stuck.”
— Andy Lubershain (42:07), on the sector’s slow adoption speed.
Final Reflections & Tone
The episode underscores the massive, unpredictable transformation underway in the electricity sector, led by AI and data centers but bleeding into every facet of energy infrastructure, investment, and policy. Shayle and Andy’s tone is pragmatic, reflective, and rooted in a deep appreciation for industry complexities—offering both optimism about innovation and realism about barriers and timelines.
Segments & Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------| | Introduction & Theme Setting | 00:07–02:55 | | Q1: Will Supply-Demand Flip, and What Could Cause It? | 03:31–14:37 | | Q2: Winners and Losers in the New Power Landscape | 14:37–20:14 | | Q3: The Nuclear Renaissance – One Design or Many? | 20:14–26:03 | | Q4: Enhanced Geothermal—Is Scale Near? | 27:37–34:49 | | Q5: Grid-Enhancing Technologies: What’s the Holdup? | 34:49–43:03 | | Wrap-up and Meta-Reflection on Podcast's Focus | 43:07–43:58 |
For further reading and direct references, visit Latitude Media for links to discussed topics.