Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Episode: Looking for a Turnaround in Transmission

Released: November 20, 2025
Guest: Rob Gramlich, Founder & President, Grid Strategies
Host: Shayle Kann

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the urgent question: has the outlook for building new high-voltage transmission in the US improved over the past year, despite the explosive demand for electricity from data centers and the AI boom? Shayle revisits the topic with returning guest Rob Gramlich, a leading voice on grid policy, to break down newly emerging market dynamics, key policy developments at FERC and DOE, recent project updates, and the challenges impeding large-scale transmission build-out. They explore whether we’re at a true inflection point for grid expansion—or just seeing modest progress tied to old projects in a persistently difficult environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Transmission: Same Challenges, New Pressures

• Worsening Bottleneck: A year ago, US transmission buildout was described as "woeful." Despite more urgency today (drive by data centers/AI), the core obstacles haven't fundamentally changed.
  • Quote: "We're still struggling to put the pieces together." (Rob Gramlich, 05:28)
• Rising Demand: Data centers and electrification are doubling demand for grid capacity. But the process for expanding transmission is slow and less reactive to investment than other energy sectors.

2. Recent Buildout Numbers: Real Uptick or Mirage?

• Recent Growth: In 2024, new high-voltage transmission lines jumped to around 880 miles, versus a mere 55 miles in 2023. (06:32)
  • However, these are mostly projects started a decade ago that finally pushed through the finish line now.
  • "When I first saw that, I thought, oh great, we're starting to turn things around. But if you look a little bit closer, you kind of see, oh, wait a minute, these were lines that were begun 10 or 15 years ago that just finally got finished." (Rob Gramlich, 07:13)
• Significance: This uptick doesn’t necessarily reflect a systemic turnaround, but rather the pipeline of old projects maturing.

3. The Critical Role of FERC Order 1920 (08:21 – 09:53)

• Explanation: FERC Order 1920 requires proactive, long-term (20-year) regional transmission planning—forcing regions/utilities to coordinate and create robust plans.
  • Applies to grid operators (like PJM, MISO, SPP, CAISO) and utilities outside RTOs.
  • Notably bipartisan and technology-neutral: "Chairman Glick and his team shepherded it through... so it kind of wound up very... bipartisan and technology neutral." (Rob Gramlich, 08:45)
• Open Questions:
  • Whether new FERC commissioners will implement the rule with "teeth" or undermine it.
  • Pending legal challenges.

4. Why Transmission Isn’t Responding to the ‘Speed to Power’ Mandate

• Different Incentive Structure:
  • Unlike data centers building on-site generation, transmission is a "backbone" that everyone needs but is no single entity’s top immediate priority.
  • "It's not right in the bullseye of the data center's immediate need... It's sort of the background infrastructure that everybody relies on." (Rob Gramlich, 11:04)
• Public Good Dilemma / Tragedy of the Commons:
  • Hyperscalers are intense competitors; none want to pay for a network their rivals use equally. There's less incentive for any single player to invest in collective backbone expansion (14:08).
  • "That's classic public good tragedy of the commons. And it's the reason why in this scenario... you have government leadership." (Rob Gramlich, 15:05)

5. Federal Leadership: Making or Breaking Progress

• Recent Federal Action:
  • Department of Energy has used "dramatic" (rare) authority to push for grid access, highlighting the high stakes for AI/data center load (11:45, 13:03).
  • Gramlich: "It strongly proves the point that the whole AI industry needs the grid and that this current administration... is willing to do anything and everything to support AI." (13:00)
• Next Steps:
  • Expanding grid capacity (not just access), implementing Order 1920, supporting interregional buildout, and utilizing DOE support programs.

6. Spotlight Events & Contradictory Signals

• SPP 765kV Plan (18:19 – 19:47):
  • The Southwest Power Pool’s approval for a $8.6–$10B, 765kV transmission backbone is "huge"—could substantially boost clean energy, manufacturing, and data center load in the Great Plains.
  • “Directionally it’s fantastic...the market will decide which [generation sources] go forward. But there certainly could be a tremendous amount of clean energy that connects...” (Rob Gramlich, 19:23)
• DOE's Greenbelt Express Loan Guarantee Withdrawal (19:47 – 21:11):
  • Seen as an odd signal given pro-transmission sentiment, but Gramlich attributes it to specific political interference: "Anytime a senator uses his time with the President to talk about a specific loan to a specific line, that project, that loan anyway will be in trouble." (20:26)

7. Pipeline: What’s on Deck for the Coming Years? (21:11 – 23:21)

• Greater Visibility: Now, there are multiple large (765kV AC) plans under development in SPP, MISO, PJM, and ERCOT—potentially thousands of new miles/year in the next cycle.
  • “For the first time in many decades [these regions are] doing the highest AC voltage transmission lines that we have.” (Rob Gramlich, 21:54)
  • California ISO singled out for consistent progress.
  • Multiple new long-distance lines (>1000 miles) are moving, though challenged by permitting and state opposition.

8. Permitting Reform: The Elephant in the Room (23:35 – 26:24)

• Critical Need:
  • Can get by under current rules (proved 10 years ago), but it’s not enough—especially for interregional projects, where planning and cost allocation are lacking.
  • "We're evolving out of an industry that started with 3,000 utilities doing their local thing in their local fiefdom...so we're grafting onto the top this more regional and then interregional approach. And it's a process, a multi-decade process we're still working through." (Rob Gramlich, 24:33)
• Pending Legislation:
  • Manchin-Barrasso ‘Energy Permitting Reform Act’ has a broad, bipartisan base; could move soon, especially on NEPA-related provisions.
  • "I do think there's a chance and I do think it would have a very big impact on transmission and enabling transmission going forward." (Rob Gramlich, 26:20)

9. Innovation: Transmission Technologies for a Faster Future (26:24 – 27:58)

• Advanced Conductors: High-performance wires (carbon core/superconductors) make reconductoring fast with little new right-of-way—important for speed.
• Grid Enhancing Technologies:
  • Topology optimization, dynamic line rating, and advanced controls increase network capacity quickly (speed is king for data centers/AI).
  • “They’re relatively inexpensive and they’re speedy. They don’t fully solve the problem... but they do increase the headroom and we all need headroom because it’s a very constrained, congested grid right now.” (Rob Gramlich, 27:45)

10. How Are Developers Navigating Today’s Constraints? (27:58 – 29:45)

• Interregional Project Pioneers:
  • Companies like Grid United (Mike Skelly) and Invenergy develop interregional lines using innovative business models:
    • "They kind of pass the hat to utilities and say, hey, would you pay this much? And if they get enough then they can go forward." (Rob Gramlich, 28:30)
    • This voluntary, subscription-based approach is limited—it requires patching together enough buyers, but it won't close the national gap.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Transmission Progress:

  • "There was an uptick to like 880ish miles in 2024, so that's some good news... But if you look a little bit closer, you kind of see, oh, wait a minute, these were lines that were begun 10 or 15 years ago that just finally got finished."
    — Rob Gramlich (06:32–07:13)

• On FERC Order 1920:

  • "It's there, it should be done. The courts will have their say. Hopefully people will revoke their challenges from the courts and just let it stay as it is."
    — Rob Gramlich (09:06)

• Tragedy of the Commons:

  • "...if they're in that intense competition, like company to company, then it's of much less interest, just much less incentive for them to go work on the network that all of their competitors get to use just as much as they do. So that's classic public good tragedy of the commons."
    — Rob Gramlich (15:02)

• On New Regional Plans:

  • “For the first time in many decades doing the highest AC voltage transmission lines that we have. So you know those take time but those are now being planned.”
    — Rob Gramlich (21:54)

• On Technological Innovation:

  • “They’re relatively inexpensive and they’re speedy. They don’t fully solve the problem... but they do increase the headroom and we all need headroom because it’s a very constrained, congested grid right now.”
    — Rob Gramlich (27:45)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 04:37 – 06:28: Recap of the gloomy 2023 transmission buildout state and what’s changed since
• 08:21 – 09:53: Explanation and significance of FERC Order 1920
• 11:04 – 15:05: Why transmission hasn’t benefited from rapid investment elsewhere and the public good/tragedy of the commons dilemma
• 18:19 – 19:47: The SPP 765kV transmission backbone announcement
• 19:47 – 21:11: DOE’s Greenbelt Express loan controversy explained
• 21:11 – 23:21: What’s in the pipeline for the next 2–5 years
• 23:35 – 26:24: Why permitting reform matters and its legislative outlook
• 26:24 – 27:58: Transmission technology innovation highlights
• 27:58 – 29:45: How developers pursue interregional projects amid planning and payment hurdles

Summary Takeaways

• US transmission is at a slow turning point: the pains of electrification and AI/data center demands are now too big to ignore, but systemic change remains slow because of policy inertia, interregional planning gaps, and a tragedy of the commons in who pays.
• Federal action (FERC, DOE, Congress) remains essential for a true turnaround; permitting reform and robust Order 1920 implementation could unlock a wave of new buildout.
• There is hope: regions are making bolder plans, advanced technology can buy time and headroom, and a few large-scale projects are moving ahead. But progress is tenuous and far from a guaranteed transformation.
• Ultimately, expanding the US grid will demand concerted government leadership and creative market structures—a challenge with enormous stakes for the nation's clean energy and tech future.