Podcast Summary: Catalyst with Shayle Kann

Episode: More 2026 Trends: Solar Costs, Oil Oversupply, and the Startup Slump
Date: January 22, 2026
Host: Shayle Kann
Guest: Nat Bullard (Longtime Climate Tech Analyst, Co-founder of Halcyon)

Episode Overview

In this second part of a deep-dive conversation, Shayle Kann and Nat Bullard cover key trends shaping the energy and climate tech sector in 2026. They analyze new data on clean energy markets, startup investment, oil supply, solar pricing, battery adoption in Australia, the transformer bottleneck, and surging Chinese dominance in vehicle manufacturing. Throughout, they highlight the volatility and uncertainty of the space, closing with memorable quotes about forecasting challenges in energy infrastructure and AI.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Clean Energy Stocks: Strong 2025 Performance

• [01:41 – 04:32]
• Clean energy equities outperformed the broader market in 2025.
• The S&P Global Clean Energy Transition Index climbed 40% (from 100 to 140), compared to ~20% gains in S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 (02:29).
• Nat Bullard: "There's activity still ongoing in these markets, regardless of what specifically you might hear in political rhetoric... there's a global nature to this." (03:46)
• Despite volatility and corrections, market data show real progress beyond optimistic or pessimistic rhetoric.

2. The Startup Slump: Investment Nadir and Optimism for a Rebound

• [04:32 – 08:08]
• U.S. energy startups saw investment drop from over $8B in 2022 to just above $2B in 2025, shrinking from 7% to about 2.5% share of all startup investment (04:56).
• Nat and Shayle bet on whether investment will recover in 2026:
  • Nat Bullard: "I'm going to call it above three [billion this] year" (06:08)
  • Shayle Kann: "I go hard over. Everything is energy, man. Everybody woke up to it... The interest is higher than ever and from a more diverse group of folks. So I think we're going to see... a return to a boom." (06:20)
• Noted that definitions of what counts as an “energy company” will get increasingly blurred as sectors converge (07:17).

3. Oil Oversupply: Five Million Barrels a Day Surplus

• [08:08 – 10:23]
• Global oil markets are currently oversupplied by 5 million barrels per day (about 5% excess over demand), dampening prices (08:25).
• Nat Bullard: "We have more oil demand than ever and the market is comfortably oversupplied right now." (09:44)
• U.S. moves to tap Venezuelan oil questioned; heavy crude requiring high upfront investment is not in high demand (10:02).
• The barrel glut reduces the urgency for new oil supply projects.

4. Solar Cost Paradox: Module Prices Plunge, Systems Get Pricier

• [11:40 – 13:48]
• Solar modules are at their cheapest ever, but system costs have risen or barely dropped:
  • Residential U.S. system prices fell just 3%, to $3.35/Watt—still triple Australia or Germany (12:35).
  • Commercial and utility system prices up 9–10%.
• Nat Bullard: "Modules cost so little... yet the price of a system is going up... the things that are driving the costs up: engineering, planning, permission, labor, equipment (thanks to tariffs)..." (12:40)
• Tariffs, permitting, and labor—not hardware—are now the main cost drivers.

5. Australian Residential Storage: Explosive Growth

• [13:48 – 15:29]
• In July-November 2025, Australia installed 40,000 home battery systems per month.
• On track: 5% of all households could add batteries in 2026.
• Shayle Kann: "Australia, man. Something about distributed energy in Australia really figured it out." (15:29)
• Government policies and high solar penetration drive rapid adoption.
• Batteries are layered atop already high solar adoption, helping manage grid duck curves.

6. Transformer Supply Chain: Ongoing Bottleneck

• [15:29 – 17:16]
• Transformer prices remain elevated.
• Despite attention and “noise,” no one has solved the manufacturing bottleneck (15:47).
• Nat Bullard: "We have yet to solve this problem. I am hopeful that there are companies that will come in and begin to solve this." (16:48)
• Firms hesitate to invest in new manufacturing due to demand uncertainty.

7. China’s Vehicle Dominance: 40% of Global Market

• [17:16 – 21:52]
• Chinese companies made 42% of all passenger cars worldwide in 2025, surpassing even Japan’s peak (17:30).
• China is also leading in export of affordable EVs and internal combustion cars, reshaping auto markets—even in places like Singapore (18:34).
• The question of used car value in emerging markets vs. new but cheap Chinese models is seen as an open “market experiment” (19:50).
• China also leads the world in mid- and heavy-duty electric vehicle adoption:
  • From 3,000 electric trucks in 2020 to 81,500 in H1 2025 (20:28).
  • One third of all new medium-duty vehicles in China are now electric (21:52).

8. Forecasting Uncertainty: The Data Center Load Conundrum

• [22:27 – 24:07]
• Nat ends with two quotes illustrating uncertainty in projecting energy and infrastructure demand:
  • Virginia energy economist (Dec 2024):
    "Sitting here right now, I think our forecast of data center load for say 2032 is probably off by a factor of two. I just don't know which way—two times too high or two times too low." (22:41)
  • Head of Instagram (Feb 2025):
    "We may need drastically more or drastically less capacity than we thought to build frontier models." (23:03)
• Nat Bullard: "Nobody knows anything. But there's a lot we should be trying to learn every day." (24:07)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Nat Bullard [02:29]: “As long-term listeners know... clean energy equities can be volatile... but then they can start coming back up again.”
• Nat Bullard [04:56]: “A whole bunch of things hit their peaks in 2021 or 2022 and have yet to return to that. And first among them, newly seen in the data here for this year, was investment in US energy startups.”
• Shayle Kann [06:24]: "Everything is energy, man. Everybody woke up to it, right?... the interest is higher than ever and from a more diverse group of folks."
• Nat Bullard [09:44]: “We have more oil demand than ever and the market is comfortably oversupplied right now.”
• Nat Bullard [12:40]: "Modules cost so little relative to the numbers that you and I used to agonize over... Yet the price of a system is going up."
• Shayle Kann [15:29]: “Australia, man. Something about distributed energy in Australia really figured it out.”
• Shayle Kann [21:52]: "Fully a third of all new medium duty vehicles in China are electric now."
• Anonymous Energy Economist [22:41]: “Our forecast... for 2032 is probably off by a factor of two. I just don't know which way—two times too high or two times too low.”
• Nat Bullard [24:07]: “Nobody knows anything. But there's a lot we should be trying to learn every day.”

Major Themes & Takeaways

• Market Volatility: Clean energy equities, startup investment, and oil supply all exhibit dramatic swings and uncertainty.
• Energy Investment: Investment in energy startups cratered but optimism for a 2026 rebound is strong, with "energy" increasingly permeating other sectors.
• China’s Edge: China’s rapid manufacturing scale-up and global reach—both in vehicles and EVs—pose questions for the rest of the world.
• Decarbonization Challenges: Bottlenecks like transformer supply and rising soft costs in solar demonstrate that hardware price falls aren’t fixing everything.
• Forecasting Limits: Both infrastructure and digital technology leaders admit massive uncertainty in future demand, especially amid AI-driven change.
• Policy & Regulation: Regulatory factors (e.g., solar tariffs, permitting) are often as critical as tech improvements.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:41] Clean Energy Stock Index Outpaces S&P/Nasdaq
• [04:32] Startup Investment Slump and Debate
• [06:20] “Everything is energy” – The broadening definition
• [08:08] Oil Oversupply & Price Implications
• [11:40] Solar Module vs System Prices
• [13:48] Australian Residential Battery Boom
• [15:29] Transformer Supply Chain Bottleneck
• [17:30] China’s Vehicle Market Share and Impact
• [20:28] Medium & Heavy Duty EVs in China
• [22:41] Forecasting Uncertainty in Data Centers and AI
• [24:07] "Nobody knows anything" – Closing reflection

For more on these topics, including Nat Bullard’s full 200-slide deck, visit his website or Latitude Media.