Catalyst with Shayle Kann
Episode: Volts Crossover: Six Big Energy Questions
Date: February 25, 2026

Episode Overview

In this engaging crossover episode, Catalyst host and climate tech investor Shayle Kann teams up with energy journalist David Roberts (host of the Volts podcast). The format: each comes prepared with three pressing questions about the next 5–10 years of the energy transition, sparking a freewheeling, insightful discussion about technology, policy, and social dynamics shaping clean energy. Touching on self-driving cars, data center energy hunger, grid digitalization, electrification, recycling, and geoengineering, they blend optimism with caution, questioning assumptions and exploring second-order consequences.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Impact of Self-Driving Cars on Urban Form and Emissions

[03:40 – 13:36]

• David’s Question: Now that self-driving cars are in limited operation (e.g., San Francisco), what are their macro effects on urban sprawl, density, and climate? Will easier commutes increase sprawl, counteracting benefits from electrification?
• David’s Concern:
  "They're going to make it easier to live far out. They're going to make it easier to commute… So that's just going to make it a lot easier to decide to live an hour outside of town." (06:24 – 06:39)
• Shayle’s Take:
  • Agrees that proliferation seems likely.
  • Sees electrification as a climate benefit due to shared, electric fleets.
  • Points out that while increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is possible, electrification can offset some emissions.
  • Shares a personal anecdote: “I've been making bets...that [my son] will never drive a car, he'll never get a driver's license.” (07:55)
• Urbanism Angle: David argues that tech entrepreneurs seem unconcerned with the urban design impacts, despite likely reinforcing sprawling patterns.
• Outcome Metric: Both agree the key data to watch is whether total VMT rises in cities with widespread AVs.

2. Will Data Center Growth Push Big Loads Off-Grid?

[13:38 – 25:51]

• Shayle’s Question: How much large-scale energy demand (esp. from data centers) will be forced off the grid in the next 5–10 years?
  • With grid connection queues long and capacity squeezed, will operators build self-supplied (“off-grid”) data centers, or even explore orbital/space data centers?
• David Doubts:
  • “The arguments for a grid—a grid is handy, you know what I mean?” (16:15)
  • Predicts workaround solutions can spur innovation but might result from social/political gridlock.
• Shayle’s Analysis:
  • Growing need may force risk-taking, e.g. with reliability for “off-grid” projects.
  • Highlights the rise of microgrids and “bring your own generation” schemes.
  • The big unknown: will data center demand truly outpace grid supply, leading to dramatic workarounds?
• Space-based Data Centers: Shayle: “Elon [Musk] says...they will be the cheapest way to get new compute in like three to five years. I do not think that is possible. Not in that time.” (24:16)
• Broader Point: Regardless of data centers, electrification of heat, mobility, and industry will increase grid needs.

3. The Digitalization of Distributed Energy: Will ‘Inshitification’ Come Home?

[25:56 – 35:04]

• David’s Question: As “everything plugged in” becomes software-enabled and part of the grid, will our homes/cars fall prey to exploitative business models (ad-based, locked-in, intransparent)—what Cory Doctorow dubs “enshitification”?
  • Worries about “intrusive ad-based, ad-supported, subscription nagging, different tiers, real-time, variable pricing” coming to home energy management (27:29).
• Shayle’s View:
  • Feels current home energy software (Nest thermostats, EV chargers, heat pumps) improve user experience.
  • Not deeply worried (“if I decide...to get free rides around in my future Waymo...in exchange for being served ads, that's a trade I make deliberately and happily.” (32:37))
• Interoperability/Lock-in: David argues for pro-consumer policies: “I want interoperability and I want the ability to move from one platform to the other without penalty. I don't want lock in.” (33:38)
• Tone: David’s skepticism about tech’s “exploitative” direction contrasts with Shayle’s pragmatic optimism.

4. Is Industrial Electrification Being Outcompeted…By Data Centers?

[37:30 – 45:05]

• Shayle’s Question: Is the vision of industrial decarbonization-by-electrification at risk because data centers and surging demand are consuming capacity and raising electricity prices?
• Key Issue: "If you are trying to electrify something in heavy industry right now...you can't find a site because every site is being taken up by a data center and your prices are higher...” (38:00)
• Underlying Dynamic:
  • Energy-intense industries may find electrification less attractive if electricity prices rise.
  • Electrification’s economics (“spark spread”) are eroded with price hikes.
• David’s Take:
  • Agrees this is a central political/economic challenge (“how you bring down electricity prices while continuing to rapidly and aggressively electrify”—40:12).
  • Questions whether electrochemistry will scale and when “clean electricity for all” will reach industry.
• Consensus: The next 5–10 years will reveal if affordability and grid buildout keep up, or if industrial electrification falters.

5. Recycling as a Strategic Mineral Source: Redwood, Cyclic, & the Next Wave

[45:05 – 53:29]

• David’s Question: Will battery and electronics recycling (e.g., Redwood Materials) prove as or more transformative than production-side legends like Elon Musk?
• Reframing Recycling:
  • “Recycling is a source of critical minerals, basically. Like it is a strategic source of critical minerals.” (48:27)
  • As supply chains mature, recycling may become “much...more strategically important.”
• Shayle’s Perspective:
  • Agrees, noting “we should recycle all this stuff… it has high value at end of life.” (49:27)
  • Cautions that recycling yield always lags behind new demand during exponential market growth.
  • Gives the example of rare earths: “If you're doing recycling, you're only getting the stuff we were using in the first place already. So you've already cut out a bunch of expensive separation steps...” (51:37)
• David’s Prediction:
  • Expects recycled minerals will eventually be cheaper than virgin-mined, especially as battery tech advances.
  • Sees closed physical loops (materials & energy) as 50% of sustainability’s future.

6. Will We See a Major Geoengineering Demo?

[53:29 – 59:49]

• Shayle’s Question: “Will we see a meaningful scaled geoengineering demo?”—specifically asking about solar radiation management (SRM).
• David’s Dilemma:
  • Acknowledges the possibility for “cowboy” unilateral demonstrations, possibly undetected.
  • Worries about public awareness or risky actors experimenting:
    “That is the scary thing about solar radiation management. You could stand up and do a reasonably large scale test on your own without a ton of money, arguably without being detected doing so by the world.” (55:13)
• Shayle’s Fear Mongering:
  • “A billionaire could probably get us half a degree C of cooling globally. Personally...It might cost a couple billion dollars.” (57:03)
• Governance Challenge: Both agree on the need for international frameworks, but doubt effective enforcement: “I can't imagine an international enforcement regime that could...enforce this. Like, it's so easy to do.” (58:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Urban Disruption:
  "...one out of every three cars in the city is a Waymo. And that's just how it is." – Shayle (07:52)
• On the Data Center Boom:
  "We're bursting at the seams on the grid. In any market that has demand for data centers, we're basically going to tap out everything..." – Shayle (14:03)
• On “Inshitification”:
  “Do we want that in our cars and in our homes? Are we going to end up within shittified homes...just another chapter of sort of chintzy, exploitative...software?” – David (29:21)
• On Electrification’s Challenge:
  "Electricity prices are going up, not down. And that's going to just make that value proposition." – Shayle (44:19)
• On Closed Loop Recycling:
  "I think eventually...it will end up being our primary and cheapest source of those [critical minerals]." – David (50:42)
• On Geoengineering:
  "The crazy thing about SRM is...it might cost a couple billion dollars to deliver something like a half a degree of cooling." – Shayle (57:12)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [03:40] — Self-driving cars and urban sprawl
• [13:38] — Data centers: grid crunch and off-grid possibilities
• [25:56] — Digitalization/integration of distributed energy and “inshitification”
• [37:30] — Electrification vs. data center demand
• [45:05] — Strategic importance of battery/electronics recycling
• [53:29] — Will we see geoengineering at scale?

Bonus: “Spare” Questions (Lightning Round)

[60:28 – 64:43]

• The future of “Permissionless” DERs (balcony solar, DIY grid interactivity).
• China’s solar overproduction and how cheap panels are transforming (and challenging) developing-world grids.

Tone & Language

• David Roberts: Reflective, sometimes skeptical, with flashes of wit and cultural critique (“all fucked up on ketamine just off in la la land”), prone to considering second-order/long-term effects.
• Shayle Kann: Analytical, pragmatic, tech-positive but careful, frequently provides industry anecdotes and investor perspective.

Summary Takeaways

• Self-driving cars’ real-world impacts on climate and city form remain unknown, with both promise and peril.
• Data centers may force creative energy solutions (off-grid, microgrids, even orbital) if grid buildout lags.
• The digitalization of energy brings new consumer risks—platform lock-in, “inshitification,” and loss of control.
• Industrial electrification could be hobbled by high power prices and competition from data centers—cheap electricity is a political and technical imperative.
• Battery/tech recycling is rising from “nice-to-have” to “strategic asset”—but can't fully close supply chain gaps during market growth.
• Geoengineering looms as a risky, easily accessible solution—international governance is urgent, but hard.
• Listeners are left with provocative questions about distributed energy, global supply chains, and the unforeseen ripples of rapid change.