Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Episode: "Homo Deceptus: Science's Dirty Little Secret"
Date: November 28, 2025
Publisher: Pushkin Industries

Episode Overview

This episode explores the enduring perils of scientific fraud, connecting one of the most notorious scientific hoaxes of all time – the Piltdown Man – with modern research scandals that shake public trust and waste vast resources. Tim Harford guides listeners through stories of deception, ambition, gullibility, and the steep costs of bad or fraudulent science, ultimately asking: Why are fields that prize honesty so vulnerable to lies?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Rise and Fall of Piltdown Man

(02:18–15:59)

• Background: In 1912, Charles Dawson, an amateur geologist, and Arthur Woodward, a respected museum curator, announce the discovery of "Piltdown Man", touted as the famous "missing link" between apes and humans.
• The remains – a large human-like skull, ape-like jaw, and an anomalous tooth – seem to support the "brain-first" theory of human evolution.
• Despite immediate skepticism, a second site (Piltdown 2) is 'discovered,' cementing the original find's acceptance.
• Dawson dies before announcing Piltdown 2, leaving Woodward to enjoy scientific glory, honors, and a knighthood.
• "After he retired, Sir Arthur Woodward mused that the discovery at Piltdown had been 'the most important thing that ever happened in my life.' A lovely thought. But it wasn't a discovery. And it didn't just happen." (Tim Harford, 05:18)

2. Unmasking the Hoax

(05:20–15:59)

• 1953: Joseph Weiner, an Oxford professor, critically re-examines the relics, troubled by inconsistencies:
  • The supposed fossil looks like a human skull paired with an ape jaw. The linking element is a filed molar tooth.
  • Under the stain, the bones are white, staining and filing appear artificial.
  • "It was astonishing how easy it was to file the ape tooth down to look exactly like the Piltdown fossil." (Tim Harford, 09:36)
• Weiner and colleagues inform museum curator Kenneth Oakley, who confirms unnatural abrasion.
• Subsequent tests prove all related specimens are modern fakes, colored and filed to deceive.
• The scientific world reels: for 40 years, a fraud had distorted evolutionary understanding, wasted careers, and bestowed unearned glory.

3. Modern Science and New Scandals

(19:00–30:46)

• Harford pivots to recent years, drawing a parallel with the Behavioral Science "sign at the top" nudge theory:
  • Acclaimed research claimed that getting people to sign a form at the beginning boosts honesty (e.g., in tax returns). The idea gains widespread traction and is tested in large-scale experiments (e.g., by the UK 'Nudge Unit' in Guatemala) – but those real-world trials fail.
  • Investigators at Data Colada, a team known for exposing bad research, discover that the foundational studies involve data clearly fabricated, using tools as basic as Excel’s random number generator.
  • "Two different people independently faked data for two different studies in a paper about dishonesty." (Tim Harford, 21:50)
  • The implicated researchers, Dan Ariely and Francesca Gino, are superstars of their field.

4. The Who and Why of Deception

(19:00–33:40)

• In both the Piltdown and "sign at the top" scandals, the question becomes not whether a fraud occurred, but who did it.
  • In Piltdown's case, suspicion falls on Dawson (with a history of other fakes), Woodward, or possibly both.
  • Doyle (of Sherlock Holmes fame) is suggested as a forger, but this is dismissed as a "good story" with no evidence.
  • In the modern case, Ariely and Gino deny wrongdoing, but investigative and legal consequences follow (Harvard suspends Gino, a lawsuit ensues; Ariely's co-authorship remains tarnished).
• Harford highlights that whistleblowing carries major personal risks: Gino sues Data Colada and Harvard for $25 million; her suit is ultimately dismissed, but Harvard countersues.
• Notably, Data Colada's commitment to exposing fraud draws legal peril—echoing the risks faced by early, coded Piltdown whistleblowers.

5. Dawson’s Pattern of Deception

(33:40–39:00)

• Drawing on historian Miles Russell's work, Harford lays out Dawson’s long pattern:
  • Numerous "discoveries" that are later proven, using modern tests, to be fakes: fossils, artifacts, even sketches.
  • Each share traits: the promise of a "missing link," vague and unverifiable provenance, an obliging academic to vouch for authenticity.
  • "Dawson, it seems, was desperate for academic recognition, and especially he yearned to be a Fellow of the Royal Society." (Tim Harford, 36:13)
  • Piltdown 2 was likely never discovered at all—just passed from Dawson’s "workbench to Woodward’s office."

6. The Real-World Cost of Scientific Fraud

(39:00–45:00)

• Harford warns of the practical—and deadly—consequences of fraud:
  • In behavioral science: Millions of Guatemalan taxpayers were enrolled in a failed study based on faked premises.
  • In medicine: Dutch researcher Don Poldermans’s fraudulent work on beta blockers for surgery potentially resulted in 800,000 extra deaths due to prolonged use of dangerous protocols—“more people than died at the Battle of the Somme.” (Tim Harford, 44:30)
  • "Maybe that's an alarmist number, but it certainly gives a sense of what's at stake. Sometimes it's a matter of life and death. Death, a lot of death. And even if it isn't, it's about truth. And truth matters." (Tim Harford, 44:41)
• Joe Simmons of Data Colada summarizes the crisis in scientific incentive structures:
  • “A field cannot reward truth if it does not or cannot decipher it, so it rewards other things instead. Interestingness, novelty, speed, impact, fantasy.” (Tim Harford quoting Simmons, 45:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the seduction of novel findings:

  • "Flawed analysis tends to produce more interesting results than careful stuff. Fake data absolutely guarantees those interesting results." (Tim Harford, 44:50)

• On the importance of truth in science:

  • “And even if it isn't, it's about truth. And truth matters.” (Tim Harford, 44:45)

• On why Piltdown Man endured:

  • "Each individual forgery had been bold and simple. Collectively, they had been devastatingly convincing." (Tim Harford, 13:24)

• On the personal cost of exposing fraud:

  • “Identifying a fraud can be a dangerous business.” (Tim Harford, 28:56)

Timeline of Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment | |----------------|------------------------------------------------------| | 02:18–05:20 | Introduction: Piltdown Man’s discovery | | 05:20–14:00 | The making of Piltdown’s myth and early skepticism | | 14:00–16:00 | The exposure of Piltdown as a fraud | | 19:00–21:50 | Modern science fraud: “Sign at the top” studies | | 21:50–28:00 | Data Colada investigation, ethics, and lawsuits | | 33:40–39:00 | Charles Dawson’s wider pattern of deception | | 39:00–45:00 | Consequences of fraud: medical research disasters | | 45:00–47:00 | Reflection: The fundamental value of truth |

Tone & Style

Harford strikes a balance between dry wit, cautionary gravitas, and narrative intrigue. He exposes the all-too-human traits that make science susceptible to lies—ambition, laziness, and the lure of the sensational—while stressing that the consequences can be not just academic, but a matter of life and death.

Conclusion—Lessons for Grown-Ups

• Scientific fraud is not new, nor limited to the distant past. Its mechanisms—desire for acclaim, lack of oversight, poorly designed incentives—are as active today as a century ago.
• The price of fraud is immense: careers sidetracked, policy and public health undermined, and sometimes, fatal consequences.
• Ultimately, as Harford and researcher Joe Simmons remind us, science and society must value and detect truth above fantasy, novelty, and reputation.

For further reading:

• Unraveling Piltdown by John Evangelist Walsh
• The Piltdown Man Hoax: Case Closed by Miles Russell

See show notes at timharford.com for sources.