Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford: Lab Leak - Could Smallpox Come Back?

Released: May 9, 2025
Host: Pushkin Industries
Episode Title: Lab Leak: Could Smallpox Come Back?

Introduction

In the episode "Lab Leak: Could Smallpox Come Back?" Tim Harford delves into the chilling story of a smallpox outbreak in Birmingham, England, in 1978. This case not only highlights the persistent dangers of handling deadly pathogens in laboratory settings but also draws parallels to modern debates surrounding lab safety and pandemic origins.

The Unlikely Outbreak

The narrative begins with funeral director Ron Fleet arriving at the isolated Catherine de Barnes Hospital to retrieve the body of Janet Parker, a medical photographer who succumbed to smallpox. Unlike typical hospital deaths, the hospital had been idle, designated solely for containing highly infectious diseases, making Parker's case both unexpected and alarming.

[02:15] Tim Harford: "Janet can't have contracted smallpox from anywhere else. How did it reach her?"

Tony's Case: A Prelude to Disaster

Harford recounts an earlier incident involving Tony, a medical photographer at the University of Birmingham. In 1966, Tony experienced flu-like symptoms initially misdiagnosed, which later escalated to a smallpox infection. His accidental self-contamination with a razor led to the spread of the virus to several individuals, exposing vulnerabilities in disease surveillance and laboratory safety.

[10:45] Tim Harford: "Tony's case showed that smallpox could slip through the cracks even in a well-regulated environment."

Henry Bedson and the Smallpox Lab

Central to the outbreak is Henry Bedson, a respected smallpox expert heading the Department of Medical Microbiology at the University of Birmingham. In the years leading up to the outbreak, Bedson had been researching a mysterious virus dubbed "white pox," believed to be similar to smallpox. Unbeknownst to many, Bedson's lab had scaled up its collection of smallpox samples just before being asked by the World Health Organization (WHO) to limit such research due to safety concerns.

[25:30] Tim Harford: "Bedson was balancing cutting-edge research with emerging safety protocols, a task easier said than done."

The Outbreak of 1978

In August 1978, Janet Parker began experiencing symptoms consistent with smallpox. Her condition rapidly deteriorated, leading to a swift yet chaotic response from medical professionals. The discovery that Parker worked directly above Bedson's smallpox lab raised immediate suspicions of a lab-related leak.

[35:50] Tim Harford: "The proximity of Parker's workspace to the smallpox lab was more than a mere coincidence."

Investigation and Quarantine

The ensuing investigation revealed that despite stringent safety measures, minute lapses allowed the virus to escape. The use of smoke tests to trace airflow patterns illustrated how virus particles might have traversed hidden ducts, ultimately infecting Parker. The WHO's response included quarantining individuals connected to the lab and fumigating affected areas, albeit too late to save Parker or Henry Bedson, who also fell victim to the outbreak.

[50:20] Tim Harford: "Even the most meticulous safety protocols can't eliminate every risk, as Bedson's tragic fate underscored."

Legal Ramifications and Public Scrutiny

The outbreak led to a high-profile lawsuit against the University of Birmingham for negligence. Testimonies highlighted Bedson's adherence to safety standards, yet the legal battle exposed the inherent challenges in proving lab leaks. Experts debated the plausibility of airborne transmission through service ducts, with some dismissing it as highly unlikely.

[1:02:10] Tim Harford: "The court case became a battleground for competing narratives, leaving the true cause shrouded in uncertainty."

Lessons Learned

Harford draws two critical lessons from the Birmingham incident:

1. Unsolvable Mysteries: Some lab leaks may never be conclusively explained, leaving us to grapple with incomplete information and competing theories.

2. Inherent Risks of Research: No matter how rigorous safety measures are, the pursuit of knowledge, especially involving deadly pathogens, carries undeniable risks.

[1:15:45] Tim Harford: "Perfection is impossible. We must weigh the benefits of research against the potential for unforeseen disasters."

The Final Revelation

In a postscript to the story, Harford references Mark Pallon's "The Last Days of Smallpox Tragedy in Birmingham," which uncovers a lingering rumor: Janet Parker may have inadvertently transmitted the virus through her professional duties, possibly through routine tasks like delivering film rolls to colleagues. This theory, while never officially confirmed, adds another layer of complexity to understanding the outbreak.

[1:20:30] Tim Harford: "Perhaps the true cause lies not in grand conspiracies but in mundane oversights, a sobering reminder of our fallibility."

Conclusion

The Birmingham smallpox outbreak serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between scientific advancement and biosecurity. As Harford aptly summarizes, while research is indispensable, it must be conducted with an unwavering commitment to safety and ethical responsibility to prevent history from repeating itself.

[1:30:00] Tim Harford: "In our quest to conquer diseases, we must remain vigilant against the very threats we aim to eliminate."

Notable Quotes

• Tim Harford [02:15]: "Janet can't have contracted smallpox from anywhere else. How did it reach her?"
• Tim Harford [10:45]: "Tony's case showed that smallpox could slip through the cracks even in a well-regulated environment."
• Tim Harford [25:30]: "Bedson was balancing cutting-edge research with emerging safety protocols, a task easier said than done."
• Tim Harford [35:50]: "The proximity of Parker's workspace to the smallpox lab was more than a mere coincidence."
• Tim Harford [50:20]: "Even the most meticulous safety protocols can't eliminate every risk, as Bedson's tragic fate underscored."
• Tim Harford [1:02:10]: "The court case became a battleground for competing narratives, leaving the true cause shrouded in uncertainty."
• Tim Harford [1:15:45]: "Perfection is impossible. We must weigh the benefits of research against the potential for unforeseen disasters."
• Tim Harford [1:20:30]: "Perhaps the true cause lies not in grand conspiracies but in mundane oversights, a sobering reminder of our fallibility."
• Tim Harford [1:30:00]: "In our quest to conquer diseases, we must remain vigilant against the very threats we aim to eliminate."

Final Thoughts

This episode of "Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford" masterfully intertwines historical events with broader themes of scientific responsibility and the unpredictable nature of infectious diseases. It serves both as a gripping narrative and a thoughtful analysis of the complexities inherent in disease eradication and laboratory research.