Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford

Episode: True Lies and Genuine Fakes
Date: September 12, 2025
Producer: Pushkin Industries

Overview

In this engaging episode, Tim Harford delves into the world of fakes, forgeries, and the blurred boundaries between truth and deception. He weaves together the story of master art forger Eric Hebborn with modern anxieties about deepfakes and misinformation, challenging listeners to question what we believe—and why. As true stories mix with trickster tales and new technology sows confusion, Harford raises the unsettling question: When does skepticism become cynicism, and how much trust can we ever really place in what we see and hear?

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Art of the Forgery: Eric Hebborn’s Story (01:40–13:22)

• Eric Hebborn’s Introduction

  • Hebborn, a talented but “unfashionable” draughtsman, wins a Royal Academy prize.
  • The legend: Hebborn claims he flawlessly recreated a damaged Da Vinci drawing, leading to his acclaim (03:25–05:28).

• “Who’s speaking, please? It doesn’t matter who I am...”

  • Dramatic retelling of the anonymous phone call to the Courtauld in 1998, exposing 11 alleged Hebborn forgeries (01:40–03:20).

• Art Restoration or Forgery?

  • Hebborn starts “restoring” paintings, adding cats or hot-air balloons to boost value (“Cats. Everyone likes cats. Some things don’t change.” 07:40).
  • Dealers ask him to “find” new Old Master sketch “discoveries” on blank antique papers.
  • Hebborn claims to have created over a thousand forgeries (08:41).

• The “Brueghel” Incident

  • A £40 drawing attributed to Jan Brueghel the Elder sparks another forgery: Hebborn makes his own, flushes the supposed copy, and the “Brueghel” ends up at the Met (09:49–12:54).
  • “I tore up the thing I copied. I flushed it down the lavatory. Rather wish I hadn’t because it would be nice now to compare. You know, Perhaps I destroyed an original Bruegel. I hope not.” – Eric Hebborn (11:56)

• Reaction from the Met

  • The Met disputes Hebborn’s claims, saying both the drawing and Hebborn’s story are suspect (12:45).

The Rise of Modern Fakes and Deepfakes (16:07–24:45)

• Introduction of Deepfakes

  • Harford recounts the 2017 introduction of the term “deepfake” and public anxiety around AI-generated video deception (16:08).
  • Reference to “post-truth” culture and real-world election manipulation.

• Examples of Shallow Fakes & Disinformation

  • Simple video edits (e.g., the Rock and Hillary Clinton) create viral, believable disinformation (18:40–19:40).
  • Harford observes: “People had missed the joke. ‘Wait,’ the troll told Grothuis, ‘these dumb shits think this is real?’ They did indeed…” (19:50)

• The Double-Edged Sword of Skepticism

  • As fake news and deepfakes proliferate, skepticism increases—but so does the tendency to dismiss real information (21:04–23:58).

  • “Deepfakes… raise the possibility that people will mistake a lie for the truth. But they also create space for us to mistake the truth for a lie.” (22:59–23:15)

When Truth and Lies Become Indistinguishable (24:45–38:30)

• Increasing Denial & Weaponized Skepticism

  • Harford discusses how even true evidence (the Access Hollywood tape, or Elon Musk’s YouTube video in court) may be dismissed as “might be a deepfake” (23:58–26:00).
  • “The mere fact that deepfakes might exist creates a completely new kind of deniability.” (25:50)

• The Firehose of Falsehood

  • The “firehose” Russian propaganda tactic: Volume, speed, irrelevance to truth, and sheer repetition matter more than believability (34:35–36:12).
  • Harford notes, “The result may well be to turn news consumers off completely. Why would you spend time trying to understand the world when everyone seems to be lying about it all the time?” (36:35)

• The Tragedy of Eric Hebborn’s Death

  • Hebborn’s life concludes as ambiguously as his stories: Was his fatal head injury an accident or murder? No one knows for sure (38:16–40:08).

• Are Hebborn’s Fakes Now Real?

  • Originals, forgeries, and forgeries of forgeries blur together as collectors begin to seek out “genuine Hebborns” (41:00).
  • “Genuine fakes. Fakes of fakes. Maybe they weren’t fake fakes at all, just original old masters having an off day.” (42:10)

The Problem with Permanent Doubt (38:30–47:40)

• Lingering Doubts in the Art World

  • The Courtauld investigates the 11 accused forgeries: Eight are cleared, but three—including a Michelangelo drawing—remain “in limbo” (44:00–45:30).
  • “It’s a beautiful, simple sketch...and yet it seems doomed to have an asterisk beside it forever.” (45:20)

• Once You Start to Doubt…

  • Harford juxtaposes standing before Da Vinci’s Burlington House Cartoon with uncertainty bred by Hebborn’s claims: “Once you start to worry about what’s real and what’s fake, it’s hard to stop.” (46:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Art and Deception

  • “I don’t like the word fake applied to perfectly genuine drawings.” – Eric Hebborn, BBC documentary, 1991 (21:35)
  • “If they were experts, they would have seen that they were false collector’s marks. Some of them were done freehand in watercolour rather than being stamped. ...They shouldn’t have been fooled at all.” – Hebborn on misleading the so-called 'experts' (21:53)

• On Disinformation and Deepfakes

  • “Those who lack expertise lack the expertise they need to recognize that they lack expertise.” (15:44)
  • "Deepfakes...raise the possibility that people will mistake a lie for the truth. But they also create space for us to mistake the truth for a lie." (22:59)
  • “It’s good to be sceptical, but if we’re too sceptical, then even the most straightforward truths are up for debate.” (24:45)

• On the Limits of Truth

  • “It would be nice to know the truth. But surely we’ve spent enough time in Eric Hebborn’s company to realize that sometimes the truth refuses to be known.” (40:18)

• On Legacy and Authenticity

  • “He became so notorious that people are now starting to value the Hebborn forgeries in their own right.” (41:35)
  • “I like to spread a little confusion.” – Eric Hebborn (43:10)
  • “Once there are enough lies around, it’s easy to start doubting, well, everything.” (43:45)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:40–03:20 – The Courtauld phone call; framing the Hebborn saga
• 03:25–05:28 – The Da Vinci “restoration” legend
• 09:49–12:54 – Hebborn’s Brueghel caper
• 16:07–19:40 – Deepfakes, shallow fakes, and viral disinformation
• 21:04–24:00 – Weaponized skepticism and the paradox of media literacy
• 34:35–36:35 – “The Firehose of Falsehood” propaganda technique
• 38:16–40:08 – The ambiguity of Hebborn’s death
• 44:00–45:30 – The Courtauld’s investigation into forgeries
• 45:20–47:40 – The art world’s new, permanent state of doubt

Tone and Voice

Harford narrates with wry skepticism and good humor, balancing admiration for Hebborn’s craft with anxiety over the consequences of a post-truth world. The episode’s language is vivid, anecdotal, and rich with allusions, encouraging listeners to share his delight and unease in a world of “genuine fakes” and “fake facts.”

Conclusion

True Lies and Genuine Fakes is a captivating meditation on deceit—past and present. By tracing the shadowy exploits of Eric Hebborn and exploring the threats posed by today’s AI-driven fakery, Harford warns us about the seductive power of both clever forgeries and radical skepticism. In a world where nothing can be taken at face value, the greatest danger is forgetting what the truth ever looked like.