Dan Greenberg (2:04)

You know Greeny,

Adam Kaufman (2:07)

38 and 20 is not bad.

Dan Greenberg (2:09)

It's great.

Adam Kaufman (2:10)

No, I mean it's great for a gap year. It's not bad. It's not bad at all. It's not 40 and 19. Correct. It's not 40 and 19. Rip to the 4020 rule for the Celtics this year. Congratulations to one of these eventual champions, I guess the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio spurs, the Detroit Pistons, who by the way, just for funsies, I did bet money on, well, not the Thunder because that's like +135 or something, but the other two. I did bet money on each of them at long odds to win the title after everything became official for Boston last night. Just for fun. Not A lot of money. I already have a ticket by the way on the Celtics to win the Eastern Conference. So still hoping that comes through at right around plus 400. But listen, 40, 20 for anyone that does not know and I don't know how you could possibly follow Twitter and not know the whole thing. The Phil Jackson credited concept is win 40 games before you lose 20 and you are viewed historically of course, historically Go only goes back to 1980 as a championship contender. There are only four exceptions dating back to then to where a team has not won the title. And typically in Greeny, you've done the research so I'll let you speak to it. But typically, let's say between, I don't know, three and five teams per year qualify at best. The Celtics obviously not one of them this year. They were during their title year. They were last year. Didn't happen this year. Nobody thought it would happen this year until suddenly it became realistic with a strong start out of the gate, coming out of the all star break and obviously all the hope they provided prior to that. You had to get through Denver though, and it looked for a little while that might happen. And then unfortunately in the second half Jokic happened and it didn't. Before we talk about that game, we will get there 4020 just as a rule. Clearly you're a buyer, you're a believer. I happen to know there are people out there that think this is incredibly stupid and there are other metrics that should be paid for far more attention to plead your case.

Dan Greenberg (4:16)

So I think first and foremost you always have to remember hitting 4020 does not guarantee that you will win the title. Right? We saw the 1920 Celtics hit it, the 2223 Celtics hit it. They did not win. They lost to teams that hit it. But it doesn't guarantee you that you win. But if you fancy yourself of a contender and you want to win the title, it's a very, very, very important box to check. It's not the only box that you have to check, but you said it 40 out of the last 44. And really I don't even count the 2021 Bucks season because that was a shortened year. When I look at 4020, I only compare it to the 82 game season. So I throw out the 2020 Lakers season. I throw out the 99 spurs lockout year, the 12, the 2012 Heat lockout year. Like when I think of 4020, it's a normal 82 game season just so that you can compare it. You know throughout history. So they didn't hit it, which is, you know, it's a big deal. And I think people, once they didn't hit it, I personally started to see a lot more of, oh, this doesn't matter. Oh, we have Tatum coming back. It's. It's not even a real thing. Like, no, if they had hit it with, we would all be treating it like you normally would when, like, when they hit it in their title year, it was a pretty big deal, right? Like, that's just. That's just how it goes. I don't think you can spin zone yourself to be like, this rule means nothing now that the Celtics didn't hit it.

Adam Kaufman (5:51)

However, there are others that might mean more right there. You know, for instance, I think it was Matt Moore who wrote about this on his substack. You know, the different qualifications, the Schedule 1 or the maybe most notably, even though it is a. A wider range of teams every year, historically in the NBA, like this 4020 thing, like you said, you know, people only take it back to 1980. And I'm not saying that's a small sample, but the NBA started before that. Historically, if you go back all the way through the NBA, 97% of teams to win the championship finished as a top three seed, right?

Dan Greenberg (6:27)

So you need two.

Adam Kaufman (6:28)

Got to have that one, right?

Dan Greenberg (6:29)

So you need up between 40, 20 SRs over 4.0, which is just a combination of point differential and strength of schedule, and then top three seed. Every champion, not even 90%, every champion, has checked at least two of those three boxes. Normally you want to hit that 4020. If you don't hit 4020, you want those other two checked. This is, I think, the spin zone or the rationale for why the Celtics are not dead and why they have a good shot at being the fifth exception to the 4020 rule. They hit both of those. And then when you factor in the addition of Jason Tatum, we were talking earlier, it's the exact same formula as the 94, 95 rockets. The first of these exceptions to where they did. They had won a previous title. They won the year before. They did not hit 4020. At the trade deadline, they added Clyde Drexler, who was, I think, 31 or 32, so beginning his tail end, but made third team all NBA that season. He had played 0 seconds for the Rockets before he joined them. So it wasn't like you had a guy, but he was hurt and then he came back. So like, think a team like the Nuggets, right? Like, they had Jokic, but then he went out, but he's actually healthy. It's not that type of situation. Clyde Drexler came back or joined that team on the deadline, averaged27.5 as a rocket, was a big part of their playoff run. They won the championship, did not hit 40 20, but they had hit the other qualifiers. So when you look at the Celtics situation, it's a big time gut punch that they didn't hit 4020. Because if you hit 4020 and you're adding Jason Tatum, you're. You're cooking with gas. The, the safety net is the fact that, like you said, they've hit two of those other very historical benchmarks and you get to follow the path of a team that ended up being one of the exceptions to the rule.

Evan Valenti (8:30)

The thing for me, when you look at the 4020 Club and specifically for the Celtics, like the Pistons made it. Yes. Like, no question, they've been juggernaut all season. But like, I try and look at this season in stages where you look at the Eastern Conference playoffs and then the finals is like two separate things. And so you look at the Pistons and you say, yeah, they hit 4020. They've had all these check marks, but you look at them and you say, well, that's a team that's pretty inexperienced in the playoffs. Can they win four rounds with the group that they have versus a team like Boston or a team like New York or a team like Cleveland? You know, should you be totally afraid of that team again? They've had a terrific season. Cade is a top ex MVP candidate. If you want to put him 3, 4, 5. Like, I don't. I don't really care. He's a top MVP candidate. But at the same time, you know, it's a young team that hasn't won a playoff series ever.

Adam Kaufman (9:22)

Greedy.

Evan Valenti (9:22)

I don't know if you have this in your bag of tricks. Has a team that has hit 4020, SRS top three seed, but never won a playoff series before. Ever made of the Finals.

Dan Greenberg (9:32)

Like, is that even there? Is. There is the conference finals rule.

Evan Valenti (9:37)

Okay.

Dan Greenberg (9:37)

Where it's a lot of rules. Yeah. When you're neurotic like me, this is how you spend your free time. Sure. If you look back in NBA history, I believe it's either. No team has either won the title. Yeah. No team has won the title. I don't know if it's all time or in the last, you know, couple decades without a player that may. Without your main guys making the conference Finals. And a great example of this is last year's Cavs. Last year's Cavs hit 4020. They were a juggernaut. They had a great point differential in terms of, you know, historic ranking. Donovan Mitchell has never made a conference finals. Evan Mobley has never made a conference finals. Darius Garland never made a conference finals. What happened? They flamed out. You look at guys, teams like the Sixers who had made, you know, who had hit 4020, I can't remember. Oh, no, James Harden made it. But like those earlier teams in the process did not have a player, you know, of their main trio. So that's where you could say for the Pistons, you know, we said, you know, three to five teams hit 4020 every year, but only one of them wins. So I look at them as a team like, yeah, you have a shot to win the title. The conference finals rule matters to you. And that's where I could see them. They could make a run, but ultimately they can even make the finals. But ultimately, I would not be surprised if they fall to either a Spurs or a Thunder team that makes it through who hit 4020. That's just how it takes out.

Adam Kaufman (11:11)

Well, let me, let me ask you this though, and I just, I want you to be rational in answering this question, in thinking about this question. The Pistons are 43 and 14 right now. The Thunder 45 and 15. The Spurs 42 and 16. These three teams, if we again are abiding by the 4020 rule, have run away with it sweat free. If the Celtics, who again needed to beat Denver to sit at 39 and 19 and have a chance coming back home off of four, zero trip, you know, could have put it away, could have gone 40 and 19 and all of a sudden we're sitting here and we're celebrating and you're, you know, having a tweet that includes them in the conversation as opposed to the one that you posted late last night that does not off the. Do you really believe in your heart of hearts that if The Celtics started 40 and 19 versus what may very well be 40 and 20 with that 20th loss coming first, that they are less likely to win the championship?

Dan Greenberg (12:11)

Historically? Yeah, I think, I think, I think their probability takes a hit just per NBA history. And I think that, and I think when you look like they are not the only team in history that maybe missed it by a game or two, right? Like that's why the, this is why the regular season matters. This is why being good in clutch situation matters. Like this other Teams have had injuries throughout NBA history. Other teams have barely missed it. And I'm sure at those times, their fans were like, okay, but we were one game away. What's the big difference? Well, how did that season end? You ultimately did not win. And I just think if you look at recent NBA history of the Celtics, right, in 2122, when they had that massive turnaround, it was very fair for you to say the team they were entering the playoffs was not the team that was 25 and 24 through the month of January. So why would you. You know, they. The 4020 rule shouldn't apply to them. They're a different team now. What happened? They ran through the playoffs. They met a team in the finals who hit 4020 and who won that championship. Look back at. At the Mavs series, right, like they were Kyrie, Luca. This is an unstoppable talent. They're running through everybody. What happened? They ran into a team that hit the 4020 rule and they lost. Pacers last year, same sort of turnaround as the Celtics, right? They got all the way to game seven. What happens? SGA has that crazy close in that road fourth quarter, then they win game seven. They were the 4020 team. The Pacers weren't. So the idea that even if you're entering the playoffs a different team than you were when you maybe missed 4020, that really doesn't matter if you're facing another team that also hit it. NBA history just says that's how it shakes out.

Adam Kaufman (14:02)

See, I can't tell you you're wrong simply because the history is the history. But I feel like a lot of what you just said is simply confirmation bias.

Dan Greenberg (14:10)

It is this part of that, right? Like, if I think that's part of the equation, but I just think it's. It's a formula of everything. It's why you should never take. Like the 4020 aspect isn't the end all be all. It's one of the important factors as

Adam Kaufman (14:24)

you're building your contender profile, right?

Dan Greenberg (14:27)

And it's just something that you would rather check than not check. And if you're not going to check it, you then need to fit the profile of one of those very unique extenuating circumstances which the Celtics do pending a Jason Tatum return. So it's like you can't ignore it, but it does impact how things tend to shake out.

Evan Valenti (14:47)

Well, I just find this. It's funny just because you look at the Western Conference, right? In the team that Boston played last night, we're recording on a Thursday, so Wednesday night is also not going to hit 4020. But they also have freaking Terminator.

Dan Greenberg (14:59)

And I would say the same thing about the Nuggets chances, though. You know what I mean? Like, yes, it's unfortunate they had injuries and that's basically what compromised their 4020. Tough luck. Like that's life in the NBA. It's just not your year. That happens all the time. So it's like I would say that about the Knicks, the Cav, or the Cavs, the Nuggets, you know, all these teams that fancy themselves contenders. You didn't hit the contender mark. And that's just the hard reality that I think sometimes fans don't want to accept because they want to believe that, you know, anything can happen in the playoffs. But when the dust settles and we look at what happened, 40 out of 44 has been a 4020 team standing at the top of the mountain. That's just so.

Adam Kaufman (15:44)

Look, any, any major injury can shift anything. Hell, the Cavs are, you know, Donovan Mitchell's banged up. James Harden now has this thing like any injury can. It was illness. Jamal Murray left early against the Celtics. You can look at any number of different things I recognize going forward. But as you sit here on a Thursday, ignoring 4020 for a second, ignoring certain benchmarks, top three, whatever, which teams both conferences to you, you can just list them are championship contenders. Which are the teams that you take seriously as winning a title?

Dan Greenberg (16:21)

I would say in the East, Pistons, Celtics. And I want to see if James Harden is still healthy. You know, he has that fractured thumb. I want to see how that looks because they, they have the potential to, to have a profile of someone that can make a run. And then in the, in the West, I'd say it's okc, a mini gap spurs. And that's probably it.

Adam Kaufman (16:48)

Why do you. I agree with you on the Rockets, by the way, but why do you dismiss them here?

Dan Greenberg (16:56)

Oh, why do I dismiss the Rockets? I just. I just don't believe in Ema's ability to effectively orchestrate a playoff offense. And I think not having Stephen Adams has completely tanked their entire season. They're not generating the same amount of offensive rebounds, which is what basically fueled. It's similar to the Celtics to where his offensive rebounding and their size is what helps propel them to have a top five offense in the NBA. They've taken. You take that out. Since Stephen Adams is out for the year, they can't score. I just, they don't point Guard play and guard play is extremely important in playoff setting. They don't really have a point guard. And then you add in Ima's sort of shortcomings in a playoff series. Offensively, I just think they're going to be facing defenses that are just too good to overcome.

Adam Kaufman (17:47)

Why not the team with the best player in the NBA who

Dan Greenberg (17:53)

mostly just because of 4020. And I think the injury rule. I'm not. Or the injury bug, I'm not sold that Aaron Gordon can stay healthy. Now you have two big time hamstring injuries like that. That makes me nervous. And I'm not positive they have enough, you know, shooting outside of Murray and, and Jokic. I think Cam Johnson is, you know, showing signs of life. But I worry about their shooting and I just, again, for me it's mostly they didn't hit 4020 because had they then absolutely. I just, you know, I care about that rule. So they, they'd be out for me.

Evan Valenti (18:28)

Yeah, I just don't. I, I can't not put them in there just because of Jokic and what they've been able to do. I mean you go back to that series last year with OKC pushing the seven games and that team was garbage. I mean that team was, was really, really shouldn't have been there. They. The fact that they pushed the seven was unbelievable. And I just have all the respect in the world for Jokic because what he can do to manipulate a game, I'll never, I'll never count him out. And then so, but, but if you go back to your rule of like, you know, the SRS top three seed 40, 20 and then you factor in the, the conference championship thing. So the only team that is really a contender of the Thunder because like the Pistons haven't won a series. The spurs are super young, like well,

Adam Kaufman (19:09)

healthy.

Evan Valenti (19:09)

Well, I mean, do we account Harrison

Dan Greenberg (19:10)

Barnes as a guy?

Evan Valenti (19:14)

Come on.

Dan Greenberg (19:15)

Well, but here's what I would tell you to that if you look at the Thunders profile in terms of their historic point differential, all the benchmarks. Remember when the Celtics were on their run and we were like why are we trying. Why are people trying to make it seem like this isn't going to be another walk to the title when like it's staring at you in the face. People did that against the Thunder last year. They ended up winning in theory. They are having the same type of season where it's like their profile is staring at you in the face. Like you don't need to overthink it. So it would not shock me if they walked their way to, to a back to back championship. That's just, you know, that would be in line with what we saw these last two years where the Celtics were historically dominant. They, it was, you know, we all were going crazy that they were, you know, being doubted or picked against or whatever when it's like, just look at what's in front of you. Last year that was the Thunder and I think that's happening again to them this year. They still have what like a plus 12 point differential or something that's like historically all time great. Like that just doesn't happen by accident in back to back years. And it may not be an easy run for them the same way last year wasn't. But if they happen to face a team like Denver that didn't hit 4020 or they're facing a team like the Pistons that don't qualify for the conference finals rule, all that stuff would not surprise me if they just cruised and went back to back.

Adam Kaufman (20:47)

Are you ready to hand the east to the Pistons? I'm just talking regular season, not playoffs. It's fine to have too big to overcome.

Dan Greenberg (20:53)

Last night was I think for me the line of demarcation. I think you needed the Thunder to beat the Pistons to get the difference in losses to four and then you needed to win obviously last night I just don't see. Because remember you lost the head to head tiebreaker with them when you lost by one point.

Adam Kaufman (21:14)

Yeah.

Dan Greenberg (21:14)

So right now you trail by five in the last column. Really? It's six. There's what, 20 odd games to go. It's. You ran out of time for the number one seed, unfortunately. But that doesn't win, that doesn't mean they, they'll win the East.

Adam Kaufman (21:31)

No, we're just talking about. I, I really, I ask it because it's not that, not that people should care about this sort of thing, but you know, as we get to this stage of the year and you know you're, you're looking at odds, you're looking at conference standings, you're thinking about the various rules you've outlined. I start thinking about awards. Right. And we've, you know, had plenty of Jalen Brown MVP related conversation here on this show. And even with you a number of times when the odds were much, much worse, we've had Joe Missoula coach of the year conversation. And Missoula, I think is finally getting, you know, the attention, the recognition that he deserves across the board, not just obviously locally here in our area, but still he is second on the board at. Call it +450, +500, depending on where you do your shopping there, if you're into that space. But the runaway favorite right now is J.B. bickerstaff, who of course leads the Pistons. And he's sitting right around -320 for anyone that cares. So I kind of feel like Missoula's only path to winning the award if people are hell bent on. Damn it. Joe deserves a coach of the year award. How does he not have one already is if the Celtics catch the Pistons, if the Pistons win the conference, if they do what they're doing. And again, I'm just talking regular season because it's a regular season award. I think Joe, you know, not that he really cares. At least not that he would ever admit caring. I. I think he's pretty locked in at second.

Dan Greenberg (22:59)

Yeah, I would agree with you. The goal posts just move every year. It's just very inconsistent. Right. Like, is it impressive what the Pistons have done? Absolutely. Like, how could you argue that? Is it more impressive than what we've seen Missoula and the Celtics accomplish? I think it depends on who you ask. Right. I think all three of us would say yes, considering what they lost, what they replaced those positions with in terms of being, you know, no names, with zero NBA experience and minimum contract players, the fact that they have the profile that they do, despite that. It's like if you took Kate off the Pistons, would they be this good all year? Probably not. That is what the Celtics have done without Tatum. So it's. It's one of those. You'll. You'll never get it.

Adam Kaufman (23:54)

Or if the Pistons don't have a Cade 2.0 like the Celtics have in Jalen Brown.

Dan Greenberg (23:59)

I mean, they have an all star in Jalen Duran.

Adam Kaufman (24:05)

Yeah, I mean, kind of.

Dan Greenberg (24:06)

I mean, he's.

Adam Kaufman (24:07)

Don't get me wrong, he's having a career year. But do you really view Jalen Duran that way?

Dan Greenberg (24:11)

No, but he's. He's still like the number two. He would just have to elevate his game to a number one level the same way Jalen Brown had to elevate his game to a number one level. I just. It's one of those things where, like when it was Missoula's championship year and they were historic, he can't win it. You know, they have a super team. When Dagnall won it in his historic year with their loaded roster, that didn't seem to matter. This year it's, oh, you know, best team, best Conference, whatever. Well, where was that, you know, when Missoula was there? How about when he won 57 games in year one? It's just never going to be consistent. And I know he'll say he doesn't care, but like I care, like, why can't. What is it about his success? He's had the most success in the NBA since he got hired. And before we were told he was a talent merchant. Now he's been just successful without the talent. Well, if that's not a reflection on the coaching, like what the hell are we even doing? So I don't know. It's unfortunate, but I agree with you. The, the Pistons will finish in the one seed and he'll, he'll probably get the award.

Evan Valenti (25:22)

My favorite thing is like, you know, people are like, Jordan Ott should be a guy that's discussed more in the conversation. It's like, oh, absolutely, you know, lost Kevin Durant, blah, blah, blah.

Dan Greenberg (25:32)

Well, Jonas went in there and pants

Adam Kaufman (25:33)

that team

Dan Greenberg (25:36)

and they got stuff back for Kevin Durant. The Celtics did not get anything back for losing Jason Tatum, you know what I mean? So it's like they took the, the Albatross.

Evan Valenti (25:49)

It's Chris Ab Sports against Drew Holiday.

Dan Greenberg (25:51)

It's all this stuff that's, that's gone.

Adam Kaufman (25:53)

But this is one of those situations where I do like to, you know, recognize Vegas, you know, not to. I don't want to make this about gambling, but I, I think that a lot of the time that does more accurately tell the story or shape the narrative than say social media and one reporter's opinion, one writer's opinion, you know, a talking head on a four letter network, whatever. Because the, the odds right now you've got Bickerstaff, as I said, followed by Missoula. It's really a one, two punch then. And I agree. He's absolutely in the conversation. Mitch Johnson at 10 to 1 before you get to Jordan Ott, I mean he's fourth, but he's 33 to 1. That tells you he has no chance of sniffing that award. So we can celebrate what Phoenix has done this year. And absolutely, it is vastly overachieved. We all thought that the Suns were going to be a dumpster fire. One of the worst teams in the NBA, just as they were last year, by the way, with Kevin Durant. Yes, they got some things in return, but we all expected them to be just as bad, maybe even worse. The fact that they are above.500 in a very difficult Western Conference. Yeah, give them their due, but their due is Not Coach of the Year. Done a tremendous job, and now he's dealing with a lot of injuries. I mean, against the Celtics, we can say, as I did, no Jaylen Brown. There was also no Devin Booker. There was no Dylan Brooks. You wondered if Grayson Allen was going to be out there. Their third leading scorer. He was. They still got rocked. But it's not a good team. It's just a team that is way better than it should have been. So it's. This is like the whole MVP thing and whatever the sport. How do you define value? Fine. How are, how are you awarding Coach of the year? What is the criteria? And I think that, man, I mean, I'm fine with Bickerstaff winning, assuming that he does. It makes sense.

Dan Greenberg (27:43)

I don't know. I think that's.

Adam Kaufman (27:44)

But, but Missoula.

Dan Greenberg (27:45)

That's like when, when Dwayne Casey won it over Brad Stevens one year when he was the coach of the pit. It's just like, I don't know, it's just bizarre to me that, you know, the criteria changes so much and it fits to a, you know, an area that just so happens to bypass Joe Mazzulla while he continues to, you know, win at a rate that no other team in the league is winning at.

Adam Kaufman (28:10)

I just think it's funny. I was having a conversation with somebody yesterday about this, and he made the. He's running through it. He's like Joe Missoula, coach of the Year conversation. Jaylen Brown, you know, if a couple of guys get hurt and we'll get there. MVP conversation. Brad Stevens, though, Absolutely Executive of the Year. And I don't know, we'll see. Maybe he is, maybe, maybe he isn't. But to me, if I'm choosing, like, Joe Missoula is way more deserving of Coach of the Year than Brad is of Executive of the Year. I mean, like, look, it's to go back to Bill Parcells and like, you know, the, these are the groceries kind of thing. I know that's not obviously the expression, but, like, if we're looking at the groceries that Joe has been handed, I just think what he has done. Remember, they're.

Dan Greenberg (28:53)

I mean, you're not. So you're not really going to be

Adam Kaufman (28:55)

a 25 win team.

Dan Greenberg (28:57)

Right. So you're not moved by the Garzilla edition. That doesn't, that doesn't.

Adam Kaufman (29:02)

You know, I wasn't moved by it at the time. And I'll own that one, by the way. Like, I, I saw them sign Luca Garza. I was like, really? Not like Sign Charles Bassett. Like, I wanted Bassey, you know, I. And I. I mean, I allowed myself to get somewhat moved by Chris Boucher. Boucher played a total of like three minutes, seven minutes. You know, Vucevich is. Is one that I might actually be right about because I did not like that trade. And we've never actually, just because of the timing, I. I missed the show that Evan handled after the trade deadline. And then we moved into other things. I never really talked about the Vch thing, but the very short part of that, I like Vuch. I like him as a player. I just wanted the Celtics to.

Dan Greenberg (29:42)

I mean, if we're being honest, big.

Adam Kaufman (29:44)

That could be part of the future, not just a salary slot. You know, I didn't want a 35 or what, however old he is, rental. I wanted a guy who's around 30, maybe a little lower. Claxton Zubots guys that we talked about there. I. So Vuch, I mean, look, we know what he's capable of, but it's not been very good.

Dan Greenberg (30:02)

I would almost say it's. I flipped right? Where if we're like. When I look at Phoenix, Coach of the Year, makes no sense to me. But if you want to look at their executive for executive of the Year, I can understand that. Because you took your big money salary and you created a roster of ancillary pieces that have had that success. So to me, that's more of an executive roster builder. If they want to say, because Brad Stevens draft picks are now finally getting opportunity and are hitting, I can maybe see that. That argument, right? Like, he did pick Ugo, he did pick Walsh, he did pick Baylor, who have all taken a leap. They just never really played, you know, previously this year. Right. So, like, is that more the coaching aspect? I think yes. But if you then want to say getting under the aprons the way that they did without giving up any of those pieces, combined with their development, I could see. And I'm just never going to be opposed to Brad winning anything because he deserves the world, but like the winner, right. I just look at something where, if we're talking about an executive's impact on this current roster, the Phoenix part of it, where they brought in all these, you know, unproven guys, low minimum guys, cut guys that were, you know, released from other teams and they found a way to work, that was them shifting their culture, right? They went from the big name super team to the tough, gritty, like Bridgie Celtics type type culture. That is team building. And that I think is, you know, the executive Part I know we got

Evan Valenti (31:40)

to toss to a break in a second, but I just want to point this out. Like if you. It's funny just to look at this all the time. This is going to sound so homer ish. It's going to sound like I have green colored glasses on.

Adam Kaufman (31:51)

But it is just you on your plus minus again.

Evan Valenti (31:53)

What's up?

Adam Kaufman (31:54)

You on your plus minus again with Hugo.

Evan Valenti (31:56)

No, no, no. What I want to. When I just, I want to point out, like if you look at the history of the NBA, you know, since basically since Brad's gotten here, you look at the wins. Like, I don't think. I don't know the number off the top of my head, but the Southern stuff won basically like more games than anybody else. Since like Brad got here. Like, like since like Jason Tatum got to Boston, right? Like they've won like more games than anybody else. Neither Brad nor Joe have won coach of the year. Like neither of these guys who have overachieved, I mean, Brad was all about overachieving during his. Again, as soon as they got like Jason Tatum, they just started overachieving like crazy.

Adam Kaufman (32:30)

Yeah, Like I just.

Evan Valenti (32:32)

Neither of these two guys, despite all the winning that they've done, have won coach of the year. And the thing with, with Joe, like this year specifically. And what gets me upset because it's like the as. As Greeny says, the goal post keep. Like if it were anybody else, if it were literally any other coach, the NBA was doing what he's doing. Like if Dagnal lost, you know, Shay for the whole season and J had the season that Jaylen Brown's having, there would be no discussion, right? Mark Dal could be coach of the year. There's just, it just seems to be. And maybe it's a bias that we all have, but it just feels from like where we are sitting that no matter what Joe does, he changed the way they play that with. With a significantly less talented roster. It just doesn't matter.

Dan Greenberg (33:13)

I mean, he's answered every critique. He's a talent merchant. Okay? No, obviously he's not. He can't adjust his system. He only plays one way. By chucking up threes. Nope, not true. You know what I mean? Like, so to have a season that they're having while also disproving all of his criticisms, how could you not say, okay, we, you know, bend the knee, like, give this guy the respect and award that he deserves. It's just like you said, maybe it's a bias that we're just, you know, caught up in victim complex, whatever. But like, I don't know, all we can do is based off is evaluate based off what we see. And it's like what more let me put it this way. What more does he have to do to finally win it if this season doesn't do it? You know, like what? Okay, fine. This, this wasn't a season that qualifies. So what is a season that would qualify for that award?

Adam Kaufman (34:06)

Yeah, I'm not sure there's ever going to be a more impressive Joe season given the hand he's been dealt.

Dan Greenberg (34:13)

Maybe year one. Maybe year one because he got the job like six days before the season started.

Adam Kaufman (34:18)

Sure. I'm talking about going forward. I don't, I don't know what that season looks like that is more deserving than the one that he is having right now. But.

Dan Greenberg (34:26)

Right. Take a quick break.

Adam Kaufman (34:27)

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Evan Valenti (34:54)

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Adam Kaufman (36:10)

It's super easy.

Evan Valenti (36:10)

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Adam Kaufman (36:21)

So download the prize picks app. Do it today. Heck, do it right now. Use the code CLNS. You get $50 in lineups after playing your first for only $5. Again, download the prize picks app today. The promo code CLNS. Get 50 bucks in lineups after playing your first for only $5. Code CLNS50 dollars in lineups. Just play your first for only 5 bucks to qualify. Prize picks. It's good to be right. Get back to the show. All right, Greeny. So we will just because of. I don't know how people feel about awards talk and we've done a lot of it surrounding Joe. We'll. We'll push out Jalen for a moment. I do. This is not going to be a breakdown of the Celtics Nuggets game because this is a big picture show and once a week and people may listen after the next game has been played at home as they open the home stand. So I don't want to again spend too much time on it. But I there are a couple things I got this game wrong. Not so much that I believe the Celtics were going to win and I was trying to, you know, will them to victory, obviously to, you know, keep 4020 still in play. We've, I think broken the record, by the way, for shows that say 40, 20. I don't know what period of time, but what I did feel going into the game was the Celtics can win this one if I don't really care what Jokic does from a standpoint of like he could drop 40, he could have a dozen rebounds. Just don't let him go for a triple double. Don't let him have 10 assists and don't let another guy kill you. So to me, a formula would have been Jokic, again it score 40, 45 points, keep him to around five, six assists. Don't let another guy go for, you know, 15, 18 points. Boom, you win. Well, Jokic dropped specifically 30, 12 and five.

Dan Greenberg (38:15)

Right? 30, 12 and six.

Adam Kaufman (38:16)

30, 12 and six. So they controlled the distribution. No other player on that team. And a lot of this Because Jamal Murray got hurt. But not another player on that team exceeded 14 points. So the formula in my mind for a Celtics win in Denver was there. To me this was not a case of as is so often the case across NBA games, that Denver plays too much Jokic. This wasn't to me too much Jokic. This was not enough of the collective Celtics now in the first half, I mean they were ahead. They weren't running away, but they were ahead. So it felt like, you know, this is a very real thing. How much to you was just hey, end of the road trip, second leg of a back to back, guys are tired. You know what, what went into ultimately basically a 20 point loss.

Dan Greenberg (39:03)

I think a few things. I think for some back to back legs mattered. For someone like Jalen, I would not say that he didn't play against Phoenix and he didn't play particularly well. So it's a combination of tough scheduling situation. But also I think it showed us what a playoff caliber defense looks like and what the limitations of a non Jason Tatum Celtics team is when facing that caliber of defense. I think the Nuggets were fantastic in their ball pressure. They were fantastic at fighting through screens on every drive you had guys digging in and clogging the paint. Peyton Pritchard couldn't get an open look to save his life when he put the ball on the floor. Everyone stayed home. So I think while yes they also shot like 20% which is, you know, maybe tired legs for the non Jalen players, but it also showed you that this team needs Jayson Tatum to be effective and make a deep playoff run. Once they're facing a team with size who can defend who has a best in the world, MVP caliber player on the roster.

Adam Kaufman (40:16)

Right.

Dan Greenberg (40:16)

That's just. That has become pretty glaring to me with their, with their play against all of these contending or top seeded teams. If you look, I mean they've struggled. They're one in two or one and three against the Pistons, they lost to San Antonio, they're one and one against the Rockets, you know, they're one and three or whatever again or one and two against the Knicks. It's like teams that have size that can. And let's not forget the Nuggets didn't have Murray, they didn't have Peyton Watson, they didn't have Aaron Gordon. Three more big time size players that can play on both ends. So I think it was more the loss. I attribute more to their poor shooting. But I do not think that you can overlook the fact that we saw what this Version looked like going up against a quality opponent and a quality defense who has a pulse and can match what it can take away what you want to do. And there was no overcoming that. And that, I think, is not a back to back issue. That I think is just the reality of what it's like playing a good, sound defensive team.

Evan Valenti (41:28)

Yeah, there's no shame in that either. It's like, you know, you lost again, the best player in the world. And, and it was interesting, I thought, how they guarded the mate.

Adam Kaufman (41:36)

They.

Evan Valenti (41:36)

He shot 13 threes last night.

Dan Greenberg (41:38)

Right.

Evan Valenti (41:38)

Which I think was deliberate. I think they were like, hey, you know, have as much fun as you want out there.

Adam Kaufman (41:43)

Have a blast.

Evan Valenti (41:44)

Because, you know. But anyway, it's. It's sort of expected given the lack of talent, lack of Jason Tatum, but it is, it is also like the last leg of a, of a road trip.

Dan Greenberg (41:56)

Yeah, that's a tough schedule spot for sure.

Evan Valenti (41:58)

Yeah, I honestly, I did think there was a, There was a path, but Boston turning the ball over like that like crazy, especially in the first half, would they have like four turnovers in the first, like five minutes of the game?

Dan Greenberg (42:09)

There were a lot of the problem sized, the signs, the turnovers, the horrendous game.

Adam Kaufman (42:15)

No, not an egregious number.

Dan Greenberg (42:17)

No, but it's. It was just more like when they were.

Adam Kaufman (42:20)

When I get it.

Evan Valenti (42:21)

Well, yeah, if the Greeny pointed out, I think last night, early in the game, you're like, first off, like the Nuggets weren't playing well and you were. And you weren't creating that separation that you needed to get away from them at halftime. It was like, yeah, both these teams aren't playing well. I guess if you're both teams, you're like, hey, you know, we're in this thing, you know, we haven't really played that well. Well, one team figured out, one team didn't. And that's.

Dan Greenberg (42:44)

I mean, listen, from the, from 146 of the third quarter to when Joe pulled everybody with five minutes left in the fourth. So what is that, like 12 minutes of game action or something like that? Ten minutes of game action. They were one of 15 from the floor. That's where the game. That's where the game opened. It was 67, 66, and then they went 1 for 15 from the 4. You're going to lose. I'm sorry. You have to score. You have to put the ball in the basket to win in the game of basketball. So it's like they ran out of gas in that aspect. But it was the turnovers while the Nuggets couldn't shoot. You're wasting these offensive possessions to where you know, you know Jokic is going to do his thing. They were fortunate enough to win the first stint of the Jokic minutes. He comes off the floor, there's no separation, right? They got it up to eight, but then it was immediately back down to two to four. Then when Jokic comes back in, it's like, all right, you have to basically play the Jokic minutes even or lose them by a small margin. And then when he sits and you have Derrick White on the floor, you have Jalen Brown on the floor, that's when you need to create your 8 to 10 point cushion for when Jokic comes back. And it was the shooting and the turnovers and the lack of rebounding that really prevented them from going from a four point lead to a nine point lead. Instead it was a four point lead to a two point lead or a one point lead. Like they just couldn't get that momentum swing because of their self inflicted wounds. And it looked just like the early season Celtics to me of four or five offensive rebounds on a single trip. Every missed layup is resulting in a three on the other end. You know, you're the only baskets you seem to be giving up are threes, you know, despite the opposing team not being able to make anything. So it was a combination of everything. And it's just one of those you take on the chin and you watch the film and you move on. But you know, you go 1 for 15 for, you know, the home stretch of a game at altitude, you're probably not gonna to pull that one out. Unfortunately.

Adam Kaufman (44:57)

You mentioned the effect of Jason Tatum. Now we know he's, he's about there. I mean, we don't know what the hang up is at this point. Is it a physical limitation? Is it mental? Is it, you know, just waiting for that last line of clearance from doctors, who knows? Again, we're not behind the scenes there, but we do know, according to the reports that he is now full go practicing 5 on 5 with his teammates. Not the G League, not Maine, his teammates. Obviously there's all the talk around the documentary and that coming out, first installment dropped and all that stuff, you know, so this orchestrated, you know, cataloged return or you know, there's a better word for it than that. But the we all believe, I mean, I'm putting words in your mouth here, Greeny, because I know how it feels. We all believe he's coming back. It's now a Question of when is that happening and how long is the ramp up to the. To the playoffs? You know, is he gonna have enough time to attempt to get himself right? You know, we don't even know how to define that because he doesn't know how to define that. He doesn't know what this is all gonna look like when he's actually back out there on the floor. But you mentioned an effective Tatum. There are a lot of people, some local contrarians, more national voices, people who just like to be loud, who actually think this is a bad idea. Now, I think that part of it is nuts, but if I'm to entertain it for a second, obviously, sports are different. If you can get your best player back from injury in baseball, a very individual sport, you're going to do it in a heartbeat. Football, again, if there's no risk of. Of further injury and you feel like he's right to return, you're going to do it. Hockey, sure as hell, like, if you can have Nate McKinnon back from injury, the Colorado Avalanche are going to take. Basketball is a team game, maybe more so than some. And there are people that look at this and say that Tatum, not through any fault of his own, but just the scenario, the situation. It could be disruptive to what has gone so well for Boston, has gone so well for Jaylen Brown in particular. Whose team is it? Who's the ball running through all of these things? Do you worry about it, or do you just, holy crap. Jason Tatum back as soon as possible?

Dan Greenberg (47:18)

Yes. I don't know. The. There's two things I do not worry about. One, his, you know, the health aspect of him coming back. Because I think it's really. What's the word? It's. It's irresponsible of us on the outside to say, oh, it's too early for him. They're not going to put him out on the floor until he's checked every box, cleared every hurdle, is mentally and physically like that. I never, like, I'm not worried about that. That's. He has to play eventually. If he's ready to go, he's ready to go. If he's not, they'll hold him out. And that's fine, too. The part of, oh, the fit, the chemistry. Whose team is it that I feel like we're just trying to be 2019 all over again. This team has a decade of experience of how to play together, even this version of Jalen Brown. Let's not forget, in 22, 23, Tatum average 30. Jalen averaged 27. Taking over 20 shots a game. This has existed before in the Celtics era with these two together. Not only that, they don't even run the same type of wing initiated offense through Jalen that they do through Tatum. So when I think of Jalen's role, almost nothing about how he plays changes when Tatum comes back. Nothing. What changes is we will be going from more of a guard initiated offense with Pritchard and White back to a wing initiated offense with Tatum. That is the strategy and playstyle difference. Not, oh, Jaylen Brown's the number one now he has to be a number two. No, because what has made the Jays so good is that at any given moment in any given game, both guys can deliver that number one role. So I, I've never doubted their ability to work together, their ability to do what it takes in order to make this team successful and to win. So I just think a lot of that is your standard. You know, have to talk about something and it gets people like me fired up. So now I'm blogging about it. Like, but when you actually think about how the Celtics play. So Tatum coming back would mean Jalen Brown gets less mid range jumpers. Like, that doesn't make any sense to me. It makes like he won't be driving to the basket more or he'll be driving to the basket less with better spacing with Tatum on the floor. Like, that doesn't make sense to me. So I just think you have to understand how the Celtics are playing offense with this version. Sure, they're going to go back to a version that fits Tatum's skill set and strengths. But what's nice about that is Tatum's skill set and strengths also help and enhance the things that Jalen has succeeded in this season. We know that because they've done it for nearly a decade.

Evan Valenti (50:06)

And the big thing here is people are getting super and upset or not upset. Well, it's just like heated, I guess, over this. Like, they think that Tatum's gonna come back and play like 35 minutes a game, right? When you really think about it, Tatum's not going to actually play that much. I mean, he's gonna play. It's not like he's not going to, but he's not going to be logging. You know, when you look at their playoff runs, yeah, both of them are like 40, 41, 42 minutes per game. Like, yeah, Tim's not gonna play like that. Like, they're not gonna. They're not gonna be like, yeah, Tay, we're gonna throw him out there for 38 minutes? No, like, no, they're not gonna do that. They're gonna try and, you know, 15 minutes, 17 minutes, 18, 20, something like that. The word it's, he comes in for this amount of time and he plays, you know, this type of way. But like the rest of the game is going to be what we've been doing the entire season.

Dan Greenberg (50:56)

I wouldn't even say they're going to treat him in his role any differently. I just think it'll just be given to us and in shorter stints and in a smaller sample, you know, like, they're not all of a sudden going to say, hey, Jason, you're like one of the best initiating wings on planet Earth. But, you know, now that you're back and healthy and fully medically cleared, we're not going to give you the ball and let you do your thing. That would be so stupid. But I think what we're going to see is, you know, whereas that may be the plan for 35 minutes a game now, it may only be the plan for 20 to 22 minutes of a game when he's on the floor. So it's not a play style change. It's adapting to playing, knowing you're only getting that Tatum style for like 60% of the game as opposed to 100% of the game.

Adam Kaufman (51:43)

But you have to wonder what he's up for, right? Again, I mean, that's. Isn't that just the great unknown, like we can all talk about has this fit, who's the ball go through? How much is he going to play? We don't know because again, we're not seeing practices. We don't know how he's holding his own against his current teammates when they're going five on five. Nobody's got footage of this sort of thing. We, we're getting at best still images, let alone the report that he's even out there. So, you know, we don't. Joe, like even Bobby Manning, hey, did he practice? And Joe just next questioning him? You know, we're, we're not getting any breadcrumbs here. And I know that's deliberate and I, I don't even care about that because we just need to see it with our own eyes if and when it happens anyway. Again, believing that it's a when, not an if, but we don't know what this dude's body is going to allow him to do.

Dan Greenberg (52:30)

I think we have to see it, right? And I think that's been the story of our entire season. Right. We wanted to know in the summer. What were the Celtics going to do in the trade deadline? Now they're going to get on your luxury tax? You couldn't answer that question. You had to just wait. It's almost the same thing here, right? What's Tatum going to do? Like, we all just have to just take a deep breath. We have to see what he looks like. Once we see what he looks like, we can then say, okay, with this version of Jason Tatum, here's what we think, you know, it should look like, or it can look like if he comes back and it's business as usual, they shouldn't change anything. Right. But if he's coming back and they're saying, hey, he doesn't. He just. Maybe it looks like Gordon Hayward's initial return, you know, there's still that, you know, the hurdle to get over once you're active. Yeah, they'll probably adjust and do whatever is conducive to winning. It's just we all want him back so badly and we want to know what it looks like, but it's such a unique industry and injury and such a unique player and recovery that we really just all have to just bite our tongues and wait to see what it actually looks like.

Evan Valenti (53:41)

Yeah. I just think, like if you had told me in May, right after he, he, he ruptured his Achilles and I went on Barrett's show with a glass of tequila, trying to get through it. Just kind of just talk my way through it. If you had told me then, hey, not only is Tatum gonna come back in March, but they would have had a shot at 40:20 to bring this full circle. I would have thought you were absolutely out of your friggin mind.

Adam Kaufman (54:08)

Which one would have been the more unbelievable one to you? The Tatum wasn't gonna be out the whole season or 4020.

Evan Valenti (54:14)

4020. No question to me. No question.

Adam Kaufman (54:16)

Yeah.

Dan Greenberg (54:16)

I would probably say 40 20, only because I was so hopped up on the propaganda of the quick surgery, you know, whatever. And I was like, all right, you know, and maybe it won't be a year. I was only of the thought that they would shut him down for the year if they had a season from hell. So I, I have to say it had to have been that they had a legit shot at 40:20 even as late as after the Bulls lost loss. Right. I think they were 33 and 18 after that bulls loss. Something like that. So even that they still had an opportunity that late in the season following that loss. I think it has to be 40 20.

Evan Valenti (54:52)

I'm with you. I think I was talking to myself.

Dan Greenberg (54:55)

That's like a 55 win pace, right? To hit 40, 20, 56 win pace. You're out of your damn mind. If anybody on this planet thought the Celtics would be at that pace, you know, with their roster. That's just like.

Evan Valenti (55:07)

I don't know if you boys. I don't know if you boys remember but like the copium that you're talking about, like how quickly we were all tucking ourselves into. Well, he did in May. So it is possible if you do the timeline because like it was already

Dan Greenberg (55:19)

in New York City, so it really wasn't that big of a deal A

Evan Valenti (55:23)

couple weeks later, like there's no shot. He's got no shot to come back. But like literally do it two weeks

Dan Greenberg (55:30)

prior, three weeks prior.

Evan Valenti (55:31)

It's possible if you connect the dots, like it's. We could. We could get there.

Dan Greenberg (55:35)

Yeah.

Adam Kaufman (55:35)

I'd be curious ev to go back to know because again, it's a weekly show, no exceptions. I mean I realize like, you know, I'm not here every single week necessarily. Or you're not here. I think generally have. You are here. But I wonder at what point the conversation changed. Like how far back did we go from he's not playing next year to oh, I think he's playing this year. I want. I want to know exactly when we made that shift.

Dan Greenberg (56:02)

As a fan base for me, we

Evan Valenti (56:05)

flip flop a little bit.

Adam Kaufman (56:06)

We did. We went back and forth for a few weeks. But I want to know what time we. We truly landed. It was early. It was earlier than most. Not much. I know.

Dan Greenberg (56:17)

Interesting. I was gonna say I was always. My line of demarcation was where they were sitting at the trade deadline but way before that. But you know, they were. But their season was indicative that they were probably going to be pretty good well before the trade deadline.

Adam Kaufman (56:34)

I legit think Evan, I might have started to change our tune as early as like late September.

Dan Greenberg (56:39)

Interesting.

Adam Kaufman (56:40)

I can tell you it was very early.

Evan Valenti (56:41)

I can tell you the moment I think it was is when he. That video leaked out of him dunking off two feet. Whenever that was. I was.

Dan Greenberg (56:50)

I think that was probably September than I expected.

Adam Kaufman (56:53)

Yeah, that. That feels right.

Dan Greenberg (56:56)

Although wasn't it six months that was like at the six month mark post surgery. So that would have been like October, November. I think. No, maybe I misremembered.

Evan Valenti (57:06)

I don't know that video. I remember seeing that video and being like that is substantial. Like I did not.

Dan Greenberg (57:13)

You know why? You know why? I feel like because I remember how I've, I'm. Now we got that Tatum dunk video, I think. And at the same time, Halliburton was taking like stationary free throws. And you're like, wait a second. Yeah, wait a second. You're taking stationary free throws. Tatum is dunking off two feet. We may be ahead of schedule. Here is how I remember viewing it. It's like Damon, Damon and Halliburton are doing stationary jumpers. Tatum is dunking. Those are not the same.

Adam Kaufman (57:48)

Dame's out there participating in three point contests, right? So Dame's still living his best life. All right. Before we get out of here. And he winning them, not even participating. So the Celtics sitting five and a half back again of the Pistons in, in the east. And they are just this upcoming schedule coming off the road back home for four out of the next five sitting here as we sit here tomorrow against the Nets. And then you got the Sixers, which of course is the game flex to Peacock, nationally televised, where everyone's like, this might be the Tatum game. I don't think it's happening. Love to be wrong. I don't think it's that day. The. Then they're at Milwaukee. Then the one that I circled, this is the one that I was hanging my hat on throughout much of the year was the day after the birthday game at home against Charlotte on Wednesday, March 4th. So I figured the next time we're going to have a podcast probably of could be a week from today, could be the day after that game and maybe we're talking about the return of Tatum, but before which, which is insane. So I, I do want to take us somewhere else before we do get out of here. But just since I'm, I'm on this line of thinking knowing that after the four out of the next five, then you got another three game trip and then it's back home, Washington, Phoenix, Golden State. And then you're kind. You're within the month at that point of ramp up to the playoffs. Do you have a date, Greeny? And I remember you were an early March 4th adopter.

Dan Greenberg (59:16)

Listen, I was, I was a February 27th believer.

Adam Kaufman (59:20)

Okay, so you, you've already, I guess, been wrong at, at, at 1. Assuming we don't get the Jason Tatum questionable, you know, tweet from the Celtics, you know, at some point later on. But yeah, what, what's the date that you have circled right now?

Dan Greenberg (59:34)

So I like, I like your March 4th. I think there's a, there's a mid March home game on ESPN, right against Dallas, I think is the 12th, I

Adam Kaufman (59:45)

think, because no, they, they're March 6th. The one after Charlotte is home against Dallas on.

Dan Greenberg (59:52)

Oh, maybe that's something.

Adam Kaufman (59:54)

And then after that you have NBA TV at least as it exists now against Washington on the 14th.

Dan Greenberg (59:59)

Okay.

Adam Kaufman (60:00)

Or Golden State on the 18th at home on ESPN.

Dan Greenberg (60:03)

I, I tend to believe we're trending towards either the fourth or the six sixth soon. That's, that's, you know, because if he's already practicing five on five, you get what, another week of that? Like, do you need another month of five on five before you get.

Evan Valenti (60:23)

Well, this goes back to what Cedric Maxwell said to us last week. It's better that he comes back sooner just because you need as much time as you can possibly get to get ready for this thing.

Adam Kaufman (60:32)

So.

Dan Greenberg (60:32)

Right. So he's already playing 5 on 5 against the second Celtics. Let's just say. Even though I believe that has probably been happening for a little bit of time now, let's just say that Shams report was practice number one. Right. If we, you know, if they have two or three more practices. Right. That probably takes you into that first week of March. You get four or five runs. Like, I don't know. I think that is conceivable because if you look at their schedule, they have a back to back at the back end of the month of March. He's certainly not playing in that game. So it's like you run out of games for a Runway pretty quickly the later you get into March. And I also don't really want him coming back where you're maybe resting a Derrick White or Peyton Pritchard to give them. You know, I want him to have minutes with the normal rotation. And the earlier or the later in March you do that, you run the risk of setting yourself up for rest ahead of the playoffs. That I think just puts even more stress on Tatum. So it's a combination of the amount of games you have available and how teams usually treat the end of the season. I think he should get five or six games in the beginning half of the month to just get his sea legs under him so that by the time you're at the ramp up stage, it's a much easier transition for him because if you look at the standings, you're probably playing like the Magic, the Sixers. Like teams that, you know, can be big, can be physical, especially a team like Orlando. Like, he needs to have game reps in order to be ready for that.

Adam Kaufman (62:17)

All right, before we do go, just because I promised it, we don't need to spend a long time on it because it's going to continue to be a conversation periodically here. MVP. So right now, I guess it's a three horse race just based on the odds. SGA, who's been the favorite all year, really at minus 130 where I'm looking. And then Jokic at 3 to 1. I bet him at 5 to 1 just for giggles after that injury. And then Cunningham, who I also bet on recently at 6 to 1, he's plus 550. Then you've got a real range. Wemby 18 1, Luca 41, same as Jalen Brown. There are a lot of people nationally even that want to include Jalen Brown in the MVP conversation, even say that he deserves the award. I have been someone. This is a little semantic, I realize, but I have been someone who says, look, you're not, you're not in the conversation unless you really have a chance to win it.

Dan Greenberg (63:10)

Right?

Adam Kaufman (63:11)

You just get votes. That doesn't mean you're in the MVP conversation. If someone destroys you in the votes, it's like saying Justin Herbert was in the MVP conversation in the NFL because he got one vote. So I don't really look at it that way. So for me, as of right now, Jaylen Brown is not in the MVP conversation even though he will get some votes. However, because of this now 65 game requirement to be eligible for postseason awards, Jokic is probably going to miss it. Sga, very realistically could miss will open things up considerably. Cade would still be a heavy favorite as we sit here and I don't think, you know, barring a serious injury, he's in jeopardy of falling short of the 65. I'd have to look exactly at where he is right now. I would put Jalen over Luca. I don't know that I'd put him over Wemby, but.

Dan Greenberg (64:03)

But Wemby may not make it either. He can only miss.

Adam Kaufman (64:08)

Yeah, also true. So, I mean, what do you think in terms of like, if you're. And I'm not asking you to make the case, you could make the case. We could all do it. If you're projecting ahead, can you make the argument for Jalen over Cade to actually realistically have a chance to win the thing?

Dan Greenberg (64:27)

I would say a, like all those. The Wembys, the SGAs, the Yokiches, all have to miss the 65. And I do think it'll depend on how close the Celtics and the, the Pistons are when it's all said and done in terms of record. And I Think where you may see, you know, it's a. It'll mostly their numbers are, you know, it's not like when you look at Jalen's advanced and normal numbers compared to, like, SGA and Jokic, they're in two different galaxies. Like, that's unfair to Jalen in that type of comparison.

Adam Kaufman (65:02)

Sure.

Dan Greenberg (65:03)

With Cade, it's a little bit more in the same ballpark. So then it just becomes a battle of narratives, in my opinion. Which narrative will. Will beat it out? Well, the surprise. Like, if the Pistons win 60 games, will that narrative hold more weight than if The Celtics win 54 with their context of their season? I don't really know if there's, you know, how that shakes out, but I would say if the others don't miss the game, the 65 game mark, then I view this season from Tatum, just like I view, you know, or from Brown. Just the same way I view Tatum's 22:23 when he finished fourth and made first team All NBA, and Isaiah Thomas's 20:16, 2017 when he finished fifth and made first team All NBA. Like, you're still having an elite season, but MVP is a level to where you need to take down Jokic and sga, who's just this. The team success and the statistical profile that they have is just so otherworldly that I'm not sure that I can say a narrative trumps that level of impact.

Evan Valenti (66:13)

There's no argument for me on that one. It's. But, like, it's been a spectacular ride. Davey. I've loved.

Dan Greenberg (66:19)

There's no shame in coming in fifth in the nvp. Like, you were awesome that year, that's all. And I just think, you know, people you're hearing now, oh, he should be the favorite. That's just gaslighting, you know, like, don't. I don't pay any mind to that. Because when you look at his body of work, it is not a better body of work than your standard MVP candidates right now. Where there could be conversations is your Cade argument, like you mentioned, to where we'll just have to see what narrative holds most weight. And if that's how he wins an mvp, I'm not going to apologize for it. But I do think, obviously you have to understand Wemby, SGA, Jokic, they all look like they all missed the 65 game limit, and that ultimately impacts, you know, how things shake out.

Adam Kaufman (67:04)

I'd be curious to look back through history to maybe I'll do this. Certainly not now, but on my own time. How many Times an MVP has won prior to that rule, failing to play in 65 games. I'm sure there are.

Dan Greenberg (67:19)

I think Walton only played, like, 61, maybe. I think Embiid was under in his MVP season, if I remember correctly. I have to go back and look, but it's happened before, but not very few and far between. Guys usually play over 65 who win.

Adam Kaufman (67:34)

Yeah, Yeah. I think it's a fair number to require. I have no problem with the rule, and I would say that even if, you know, but the guy I'm supporting misses it, I think it's a very reasonable.

Dan Greenberg (67:45)

It is a little unfortunate if you play, like, 63. You know what I mean? Like, what's the difference of, you know, that's kind of like the 4020 rule. It's like you're. You're right there. It's like, oh, well, just wasn't your year. You missed. You got hurt. It's just unfortunate, you know, that's how the cookie crumbles.

Adam Kaufman (68:01)

All right, Greeny. Well, next time we're talking, God willing. Jason Tatum is an active member of the Boston Celtics once again. Yeah, I mean, the fact that Evan and I could be having this discussion one week from now and that's the case, is kind of mind blowing and can't wait to watch it. Obviously, like we've said, like, you've tweeted, gonna be a loud pop. Gonna be a loud pop from the home crowd, whether that is coming off the bench, getting the announcement, or as that fifth starter announced. Either way, that tickets for that game, just if anyone, if they're not all sold out across the board anyway. I can only imagine what tickets to the games in and around these speculative dates cost right now. Knowing that we live in this era of, you know, jacking up prices. Depending on the level of importance for games, probably.

Dan Greenberg (68:50)

I mean, it would probably take a mortgage payment, I would think, to get into the building.

Adam Kaufman (68:56)

All right. For Dan Greenberg, for Evan Valenti, I'm Adam Kaufman. Remember, you can always check out Celtics Beat via just the audio. You can go to wherever you subscribe and get your podcast rate review download. Most important importantly, subscribe to Celtics beat if you want the video, if you want to look at us or any other guests that we have along the way, and who could blame you? Cedric Maxwell, he was fun last week, for instance. A lot of good stories from him. And stick around till the end because it only got a little more wonky and. And wacky with that particular show. You can always go to the CLNs. Pardon me, all access page on YouTube. Again, CLNs all access page on YouTube. And you will find us, you know, along with a number of other wonderful Celtics podcasts that are within the family, including Maxis, for that matter. So, Grady, just a matter of time before we have you as a regular weekly staple on this show and. And we venture you fully into the podcast forum.

Dan Greenberg (69:50)

Listen, any. Anytime you guys need me, I'm here for you. You know, just hit me up.

Adam Kaufman (69:54)

We appreciate it. All right, again, for the three of us, all of you, we thank you for watching, listening, reviewing, and. Yeah, Tatum, it's coming. He's coming soon. See ya.

Dan Greenberg (70:06)

See ya.

Evan Valenti (70:07)

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