The Inflation Guy starts with a general comment on where markets are and what to look for as we contemplate the next move. But the really meaty bit is where he talks about recent Fed research (finally concluding what the Inflation Guy has been telling you for years) about the skewness of the distribution of price changes in the CPI suggesting that maybe there is something more going on than a placid and obedient return to 2%...

NOTES

Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic? (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/is-the-inflation-process-in-advanced-economies-different-after-the-pandemic-20260330.html)

Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0416)

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2026/)

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Ep. 155: Are We Really Skewed With Inflation?