Matt Belloni on the Oscars, the Ellisons, and Hollywood’s Next Chapter

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Matt Belloni on the Oscars, the Ellisons, and Hollywood’s Next Chapter" Channels with Peter Kafka — March 11, 2026, Vox Media Podcast Network

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Episode Overview

In this industry-deep dive, Peter Kafka chats with Matt Belloni (founding partner at Puck and Hollywood journalist) about the Oscars, a wave of seismic Hollywood mergers, the looming influence of the Ellison family, and the future of prestige film and entertainment—all as the industry pivots into a new era defined by streaming, globalization, and financial restructuring. The discussion is equal parts behind-the-scenes storytelling and big-picture analysis.

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Key Topics & Discussion Highlights

1. Oscars Buzz and the Last Stand of Original Filmmaking (01:01–07:15)

• Seating Politics at the Oscars

  • Belloni jokes about the lottery of his Oscar seat assignment, reflecting on his journey from Hollywood Reporter editor to his current role. Notably, he’s not expecting a move back to "orchestra seats" anytime soon. (01:32–02:29)

• Warner Brothers’ Big Night(s)

  • Warner Bros., currently with 30 nominations, is center stage—despite having been bought by another studio (Skydance/Paramount under David Ellison). Belloni calls it “almost like a swan song for Warners. This is the best it’s ever going to get for this studio” (02:49–03:14).
  • Peter highlights the irony of critical concern over Warners’ big auteur bets now flipping into industry adulation: “Now they're being heralded for making movies that are not superhero movies.” (04:12–04:34)
  • Belloni underscores that creative success and possible Oscar glory (‘Best Picture’) can override financial losses, cementing a film’s long-term value in the studio library. (04:34–05:09)

Notable Quote:

“I think when you win Best Picture, it kind of doesn't matter because the value of that movie in the Warner's library will always be strong.” —Matt Belloni [05:06]

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2. Hollywood’s New Power Brokers: The Ellisons and Skydance (05:29–07:15; 23:59–31:34)

• David Ellison’s Track Record & Strategy
  • Belloni questions if Skydance (Ellison’s company) will support risky, auteur-led films or revert to franchise, IP-driven projects, noting “a lot of garbage” in their production history, with real success mostly tethered to existing franchises (Mission Impossible, Top Gun) (05:29–06:47).
  • Casting doubt on studio autonomy under new ownership, Belloni says: “I think there’s going to be a lot more control over Warner Brothers from the Paramount side than there would have been at, say, Netflix.” (06:52)

Notable Quote:

“If you look at the past history of Skydance movies... it's a lot of garbage. It is stuff that, you know, Apple throwaway movies like Ghosted and the Family Plan.” —Matt Belloni [05:38]

• Hollywood Reactions to the Ellison Acquisition
  • Financial stress: The $80 billion of debt being used to buy and combine the studios portends years of aggressive cost-cutting, mirroring strategies from the previous Warner Bros Discovery merger. (24:40–26:44)
  • Concerns extend to newsroom “positioning”: Belloni predicts CNN and CBS News will shift rightward under the Ellisons, “more like Fox News," regardless of intent. (25:49–27:36)
  • Despite apprehension, the possibility of committed theatrical distribution (versus Netflix’s digital-first approach) could be a "good" for distributors and talent alike. (28:44–30:05)

Notable Quote:

“They're already talking about $6 billion in cost cuts. That's a lot of people ... they're probably right. You know, it depends what you consider to be painful. Is 20% reduction of employees painful? You know, that's thousands of employees.” —Matt Belloni [25:10]

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3. Oscar Campaign Tactics, Scandals & Betting Markets (07:15–14:21)

• Dirty Campaigning Fades… or Does It?

  • Discussion about the “opposition research” tactics pioneered by Harvey Weinstein. Belloni notes campaigns are wary, but scandals can still have ripple effects (“the Carlos Sophia Gascon controversy” is cited as a successful campaign takedown). This year, no substantial smear campaigns surfaced. (07:15–09:19)

• Prediction Markets Hit the Mainstream

  • Oscars betting is now “fully mainstream,” with easy-to-use legal apps like Kalsheet giving widespread, near-real-time odds (10:30–11:11).
  • Belloni sees prognostication as increasingly driven by markets, not just “expert” opinion: “It’ll be interesting to see who ends up being a better prognosticator — the so-called experts or the math and the markets.” (11:45–12:47)
  • Both agree that betting heightens engagement, drawing a comparison to the way sports gambling has driven NFL viewership, but Kafka questions if this really grows the overall audience. (13:05–13:48)

Notable Quote:

“The Oscars would love if that became a thing now. They're not going all the way like the Golden Globes did... show the polymarket odds on the screen, which was like the tackiest thing you could ever do for an artistic merit competition.” —Matt Belloni [13:48]

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4. Oscars Leaving Broadcast TV for YouTube (14:21–19:45)

• Why the Big Move?

  • The Academy needs to maintain its “lifestyle”—YouTube matched the high broadcast license fee as ABC looked to drop it. Belloni likens the situation to a “very well taken care of spouse” needing a new suitor. (14:57–15:48)
  • Hope is that YouTube will bring the Oscars not just to a younger, but also a global, audience; Belloni is skeptical that moving to a streaming platform will materially enlarge or rejuvenate viewership immediately. (15:48–16:57)

• Audience Engagement and the Ceremony’s Structure

  • Both question whether global YouTube access really solves the Oscars’ declining relevance and audience share, since “the Oscars is all about the winners and the speeches” — and red-carpet moments already circulate online instantly. (17:15–18:02)
  • Fundamental problem: “They give out 24 awards. 23 or 24 awards. And until they do what the Grammys did, which was recognize this is a television show, ... people want to be entertained. They don't want to see who wins the best sound award. That's going to be a problem.” —Belloni (18:02–18:51)
  • The Academy, controlled by an entrenched board, struggles to make decisive changes to the show’s format. (18:56–19:17)

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5. Why YouTube (Not Netflix) Got the Oscars + Streaming Dynamics (22:41–23:59)

• Netflix, Still an Oscar Outsider
  • Political friction: Netflix’s status as digital disruptor and its practice of limiting theatrical runs works against it in the Academy’s eyes, possibly blocking it from a Best Picture win—even as it tries to “play nice” with traditional Hollywood. (22:41–23:59)
  • Belloni: “People have substituted Netflix for the digital boogeyman. And if Netflix started airing the Oscars, that might have been a bridge too far.”

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6. The Problem of Gulf Money and Hollywood’s Compromises (33:56–38:19)

• $24 Billion in Gulf Investments
  • Kafka and Belloni discuss the discomfort around sovereign wealth funding (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) for giant Hollywood deals, particularly as it relates to news divisions like CNN.
  • Belloni believes most of Hollywood will “move on” and work with whoever can bankroll projects, barring reputational disasters that become impossible for actors/creatives to ignore. (36:04–37:08)

Notable Quote:

“The world is a complicated place. I understand that this one irks a lot of journalists because of the nature of the... mistakes, as you put it. ... Jerry Cardinal doesn't have any problem with it. The money men don't have any problem with it.” —Matt Belloni [37:36]

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7. Is Hollywood ‘Cooked’ or Just Changing? (38:19–41:10)

• The Creator Economy Rises
  • Peter quotes Janice Min calling the mood “really grim... Detroit like vibes, between consolidation, production leaving town, the threat of AI, threat of tech in general” (39:12).
  • Belloni answers with cautious optimism: Hollywood is in “a period of transition, and it's going to be an extremely painful period of transition. But there are opportunities ... the business is becoming more sophisticated.”
  • He points to creators like Markiplier, new digital-first studios, and the mainstreaming of microdramas/podcasting as signs of hope and evolution.

Notable Quote:

“The definition of Hollywood is expanding. And while we're seeing the decline of the traditional studios, I think overall, once this transition period is over, you are going to see a robust entertainment industry.” —Matt Belloni [40:55]

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Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Betting and Fans:
  “If you were to bet, I might put some money on, on Timmy to win best actor because he was the favorite for most of the season. And it's only this late surge that has caused Michael B. Jordan to go ahead.” —Matt Belloni [11:56]
• On Show Structure:
  “They need to do a culling. They need to say These are the 10 awards. People care about. Everything else will be at a pre show or the commercials. And that's the way it is.” —Matt Belloni [19:16]
• On Industry Evolution:
  “There’s this entire diaspora of creator and podcast and video and micro dramas and all these other things... the Borg of Hollywood is sort of assimilating them.” —Matt Belloni [40:07]

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Key Timestamps for Reference

• Oscars Seating & Campaigns: 01:01–09:19
• Betting Markets: 10:30–13:48
• Oscars to YouTube & Ceremony Structure: 14:21–19:45
• Ellison/Skydance Deals & Hollywood Politics: 23:59–31:34
• Gulf Money & Funding Ethics: 33:56–38:19
• Optimism vs. Decline: 38:19–41:10

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Tone and Style

• Conversational, wry, and industry-insider with an undercurrent of skepticism about institutional change—but peppered with hope about new entertainment paradigms.
• Peter Kafka’s probing journalism draws out Belloni’s candor, making for accessible but sharp analysis.

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Ideal for: Anyone interested in the intersection of Hollywood, tech, and finance; Oscar-watchers; media industry professionals; and those curious about what’s next in the global entertainment game.

Transcript

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[Peter Kafka]

From the Vox Media podcast network. This is Channels with Peter Kafka. That is me. I'm also chief correspondent at Business Insider. It is Oscar season. If you weren't paying attention to that cause, maybe paying attention to other things happening in the world. The actual awards are Sunday, March 15. That means it's time to talk to Puck's Matt Bellany, the excellent chronicler of all things Hollywood. I want to talk about the awards, but really, this is a chance to talk about the movie business and where it's going at what seems like a crucial moment. Welcome back, Matt.

[Matt Bellamy]

Thanks for having me.

[Peter Kafka]

Thanks for coming. Last time we had this conversation was just after last year's Oscars. You said you had good but not great seats. Basically, your. Your star had slipped since you were editing the Hollywood Reporter. Are you going this year? And if so, have your seats improved?

[Matt Bellamy]

I am going, and it is unclear whether my seats have improved. They do not assign tickets until the. The Oscars. So I will. They will just pop up in my digital wallet where I'm sitting. I don't think I'm, I'm not anticipating much of an improvement this year. I didn't do anything to warrant getting better seats.

[Peter Kafka]

I don't know. I feel like I read a profile, even the Times and, and some other glossy stuff. Someone had a picture, someone took a profile of you looking pensive at Sundance. I think you're moving up.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yeah, I guess stars on the studio do not get preference for Oscar. Oscar tickets? No, I don't know.

[Peter Kafka]

I, I think if. I think if you're in the. Which you literally were, then you should get better seats.

[Matt Bellamy]

You know what? From your mouth to whoever at the Academy decides it. It's not embarrassing. Let me be clear. The mezzanine is not Embarrassing, but I hopefully someday will return to the orchestra seats.

[Peter Kafka]

Okay, besides Matt Bellany's quest for better seats, what are the storylines you care about the most with this year's awards?

[Matt Bellamy]

I mean, the, the hilarious thing about the Oscars this year is that the leading studio with 30 nominations was just gob by another studio, the fourth richest man in the world. I mean, Warner Brothers. This is almost like a swan song for Warners. This is the best it's ever going to get for this studio. Now put aside the fact that One Battle After Another lost them tens of millions of dollars and they still ran a, you know, $15 million awards campaign for the movie. Sinners did very well for them and is really a validation in their minds of the strategy that has been put in place at Warner's to bet hundreds of millions of dollars on auteur filmmakers to make original movies that people in Hollywood love. That. And if Sinners wins, it's because in part, people want to thank Warner Brothers for betting on this filmmaker Ryan Coogler and saying, yes, we will make your $100 million vampire movie and give it a full release. And yes, it will make $350 million worldwide. So I still think One Battle after another is going to win. But. But that's also a validation. I mean, that movie costs, they say 130. I've heard as much as 150. And it grossed about two something worldwide. Not going to make money. But the filmmaker community loves the fact that Warner's did this.

[Peter Kafka]

There, there were a lot of stories about both Sinners and One Battle After Another as they were in production and coming out with lots of people sort of concern trolling, oh, it's too much money. And it's not. And it's not known ip. And what is Warner's doing giving Ryan Coogler this deal? What are they doing? Spending all. And now it's flipped. And now they're being heralded for. For making movies that are not. That are not superhero movies.

[Matt Bellamy]

I mean, when the movies work, at least creatively, they worked. One battle did not work financially for all the reasons that people said it wouldn't work. It was just too expensive for what it was. And PTA Paul Thomas Anderson had never directed a movie that grossed more than 75 million worldwide. And the fact that this movie got over 200, I guess, is a win. You have Leonardo DiCaprio in it, and that's a big draw worldwide, but it's not going to make money. But I think when you win Best Picture, it kind of doesn't matter because the value of that movie in the Warner's library will always be strong.

[Peter Kafka]

So assuming that one of either sinners or one battle after another wins and the odds right now are on one battle after another, does that tell us anything about the state of Hollywood in 2026 other than Warner Brothers made a bunch of success, critically successful and in some cases commercially successful movies in the last year?

[Matt Bellamy]

Well, it, it says something about where we're going in the sense that we don't know whether David Ellison and his Paramount team is even going to allow the kind of bets that Warner Brothers made to get those two movies into production and contention like the. If you look at the past history of Skydance movies, the movies that David Ellison made at his company, I highlighted this last night in my Puck newsletter because people at Warner Brothers are joking about it. It's a lot of garbage. It is stuff that, you know, Apple throwaway movies like Ghosted and the Family Plan. And, you know, he made Gemini man and Life and I mean, all these movies that kind of came and went. And then he attached himself to the Paramount franchises.

[Peter Kafka]

Paramount, Anton Cruise.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yeah, and Tom Cruise, Mission Impossible, Top Gun. He did Reacher and Jack Ryan on tv. Like, he's done. He's done okay on the franchise front. Although you, arguably the Terminator movies he made were not good and not successful. But that is his focus and it's. It's going to be interesting to see if he will even allow the kind of filmmaking at the budgets that were employed on those movies to even happen.

[Peter Kafka]

So it could be a last gasp for that kind of filmmaker or at least for Warner Brothers making that kind of filmmaker.

[Matt Bellamy]

Now, now, to be fair, they're not saying that. They're saying that Warners is going to be able to be autonomous and they want them to make these kinds of movies and they have expertise. But I think there's going to be a lot more control over Warner Brothers from the Paramount side than there would have been at, say, Netflix, if Netflix had bought Warner Brothers and they were talking about keeping it as a fully autonomous theatrical studio.

[Peter Kafka]

So we'll come back to David Ellison and his father, Larry Ellison, in a few minutes. Back to the Oscars for a second. You used to hear stories about oppo research. My producer Charlotte was bringing this up where. And I guess Harvey Weinstein sort of pioneered this at Miramax. So.

[Matt Bellamy]

And now his acolytes are running the campaigns. These people. Right. So to improve under Harvey, to improve

[Peter Kafka]

the odds of you run an Oscar campaign in part to promote your movie and also to tear down somebody else's. Was that happening this year around? I feel like I didn't hear, hear any of that. And the only thing I can think of was there was a California Post story going after the Safdie brothers and, and some ugliness there that seems like an. They don't get along.

[Matt Bellamy]

It was not really even about the movie. It was just that they don't get along, but they don't get along.

[Peter Kafka]

And, and one of the Safdies had behaved extra badly, supposedly on a set,

[Matt Bellamy]

or he allowed some people to, to behave badly. You know what? The oppo research thing I think gets a little overblown because they, the, the campaigns don't want to go there. But when they see an opportunity like last year with the Carlos Sophia Gascon controversy where the star of Amelia Perez, which was already, it was, you know, got the most nominations. People forget that last year, Amelia Perez, but it was already kind of weakened in the sense that there was backlash online to some of the gender stuff in the movie. There was kind of.

[Peter Kafka]

A lot of people just thought the movie sucked.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yes. And it's very different to show that movie in a film festival environment where it's a lot of auteurs who want to believe in the artistic merit of it and then it drops on Netflix and people are like, what, what is this penis vagina song? Like, what are we doing here? So there it was, weak. And then Carlos Sofia Gascon went on this, you know, this resurfaced Twitter scandal.

[Peter Kafka]

Bad tweets.

[Matt Bellamy]

Bad tweets. And we've seen it before. And people pounced. And all of a sudden the other campaigns were highlighting what she had said. They saw an opportunity to take that movie down and it worked. We didn't see that this year, though.

[Peter Kafka]

Didn't see it this year. And, and, and then the last couple days, there is a, A, a non story about Timothy Chalamet suggesting that ballet and opera aren't important. But that won't. First of all, there. I don't believe there's a big ballet and opera contingent in the Academy. But also the award voting is closed. Right.

[Matt Bellamy]

So that's when this scandal, which is a giant nothing burger, I mean, literally, it's, it's one of those that is only made for Twitter and the outlets that love to get traffic off of Twitter. The, the allegation is that he's going to offend the artistic community. But this broke at the very end of voting. Likely people had either voted or already made up their mind. And plus, even if these scandals make their way into the academy, it takes a while for them to to permeate because most academy voters are not very online. They are working actors, directors, writers, etc. And it just, I don't. If Timmy loses, it won't be because of that. It will be because there was a last minute surge for Sinners. It won the SAG award. Michael B. Jordan won the SAG Award and it will be because he splits the LEO vote and Michael B. Jordan surges. But I still don't think that's going to happen. I think Timmy's going to win.

[Peter Kafka]

And this is the first year of the Oscars where prediction markets are fully mainstream or at least the idea of them is fully mainstream.

[Matt Bellamy]

Tried it.

[Peter Kafka]

I have gone on Cowsheet because it's legal and easy and they will. You can download the app from the Apple App Store and connect it to your Apple pay in two clicks and be betting and your third click. The thing I always point out is Polymarket. That's not the case. That's not legal in the US So to use it you need a vpn. You need to pay in crypto.

[Matt Bellamy]

I am not a gambler. Normally I don't do this stuff. But I've been experimenting on Kalsheet this season mostly just to kind of see how it works. And I won like 100 bucks on Kate Hudson getting nominated.

[Peter Kafka]

I won $3 on John Cornyn probably winning the Republican primary. How do you think that affects the race either? I mean, does it. There's a couple of things I can imagine. It might literally affect the way the race pans out depending on, I mean if people have a sense of how the betting is working. I also assume it affects sort of the, the media that covers the race does that. If Kalshee has odds and I can just go to Kalshee and see what the odds are for one battle after another. Does that pull from Variety in Hollywood Reporter or even Puck coverage of who's winning the race?

[Matt Bellamy]

A little bit. I mean these awards prognosticators claim to have the inside track and be able to reflect things that the prediction markets would not. It'll be interesting to see how those prognosticators do against the prediction markets. But we've seen right now, for instance, Michael B. Jordan is the favorite to win best actor and Timothy Chalamet has dropped down. He's at, I believe he's at like 3 30% or something like that now. And I think that is because a lot of people are seeing this stuff online and not realizing how little it's impacting the voting. So Timmy's a pretty good bet right now. And this is not betting advice, but if you were to bet, I might put some money on, on Timmy to win best actor because he was the favorite for most of the season. And it's only this late surge that has caused Michael B. Jordan to go ahead. Um, I, so I do think it'll be interesting to see who ends up being a better prognosticator. The so called experts or the math and the markets.

[Peter Kafka]

The people who promote gambling. Whether it's sports gambling or prediction markets. One of the standard raps is in favor of it is when you can bet on it, it adds stakes, it generates more attention. People are more invested in, in the game or the awards because they have money riding on it or someone else does. Do you believe that?

[Matt Bellamy]

I do. And I know people at the academy that believe it. They, they secretly kind of like this stuff. They like the people because they've seen what, what it does to sports. I mean, how many more people are invested in football because of their fantasy team or their betting? It's, it's an, it's an entirely new avenue to get people invested.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah. It's unclear to me still whether people are, are more involved in sports because of betting and fantasy betting, but we can table that for now.

[Matt Bellamy]

You don't think so? I don't know. For me, I'll tune into a game if I have someone on my fantasy team playing.

[Peter Kafka]

No. And there's a contingent of that. Right. And, and I just don't know if the audience has grown. Like if that was happening, you'd think the audience would grow for these things. And I think they're, they're basically flat to down for most of, for most sports.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yeah. So I guess NFL is the big one. I think the NFL betting has permeated society in a way that everybody at least knows somebody who does it. So I think the Oscars would love if, if that became a thing now. They're not going all the way like the Golden Globes did, where the Golden Globes showed the polymarket odds on the screen, which was like the tackiest thing you could ever do for an artistic merit competition. But the Globes are tacky and cash grabbing. But the Oscars have not done yet. They do not have a prediction market partner.

[Peter Kafka]

Give, give them time. So that leads me to this conversation, which is normally when I cover the Oscars, it's about the television. It's often about the television show. And how the audience is steadily declining. And what does that tell us about the state of. And monoculture? And will the, you know, will this ever return? Will the Oscars ever get more important? And it looks like the Academy has basically said, we've had a nice run, we're taking our ball and we're moving to the Internet, so you no longer have these discussions about our declining rating. So in a couple years, YouTube, this show is going to be a YouTube show. What does that tell us about where things are going?

[Matt Bellamy]

It tells us two things. First and foremost, the academy needs money. YouTube was stepping up to maintain the license fee that the Academy has become accustomed to. The Academy is like a very well taken care of spouse, male or female, in a very nice bunker or mansion, where all of a sudden they were potentially looking at a divorce from ABC that was paying $100 million a year for the show and offering much less. So they can either switch up the lifestyle to which they become accustomed or they can find a new suitor. And the Oscars are so worth it to YouTube as a branding moment and to get everybody talking about how this pinnacle of Hollywood excellence is moving to the Internet and moving to the home of cat videos and Mr. Beast. And this will be the narrative everywhere now. Will the audience actually grow? The Academy hopes that not only will the audience get younger, it will grow worldwide because it is so accessible and everybody can watch anywhere they want. I'm not convinced of that. I think they're making a sacrifice here, doing it so soon. Eventually, yes, but in 2029, are a lot of people going to recognize and realize that you've got to download the YouTube app, put it on your TV or phone and watch it there, or, you know, go to a website? I don't know that the older audience for the Oscars is going to do that.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, I mean, YouTube says, you know, well over half their viewing now is on connected TVs. They're already there.

[Matt Bellamy]

The biggest people have figured it out. Connected tv. But what we saw with Amazon Prime Video when the NFL moved Thursday Night Football there was that the audience for that first year after being on Fox went down.

[Peter Kafka]

Right.

[Matt Bellamy]

And.

[Peter Kafka]

And now it's back.

[Matt Bellamy]

They figured it's back. But that's three, four years later. So that first couple years, I think there is a contingent of people that just won't find it.

[Peter Kafka]

And this premise that if we make it accessible around the world and we put it on YouTube and YouTube's got a very young audience, that that will make the Oscars relevant again. This Fixes our relevancy problem. I find that hard to believe. But also YouTube is a giant fucking platform. Maybe there's some truth to it.

[Matt Bellamy]

Maybe. But here's the thing is that the Oscars are pretty accessible worldwide. They air in, in most countries. It's just the problem is a 5pm or 4pm show on the west coast is the middle of the night in Europe.

[Peter Kafka]

Yep.

[Matt Bellamy]

And you wake up in Europe and you see who won. And a lot of the value of watching. It's not like the Grammys where there are performances that you kind of want to see even if you already know the winners. The Oscars is all about the winners and the speeches.

[Peter Kafka]

The winners. And it's also about who wore what. Right. Clips and what were interesting things and clips and that. That already you don't need to watch live. And the idea of famous people on TV was a big deal up until the last 10 years. When you can see famous people non stop on the Internet, you can't escape famous people.

[Matt Bellamy]

Exactly. And the Academy is trying to rectify that. They have Emelia de Moldenberg as their ambassador doing interviews. She's a big YouTube star. They have ambassadors from various, you know, creators and stuff that they now allow into the show to try to boost their profile online. I actually do an interview with Amelia on the Town this week where we talk about how to make the Oscars younger and she has some ideas. But like it's just the, the fundamental problem with the Oscars has always been and will continue to be until the Academy changes it. They give out 24 awards. 23 or 24 awards. And until they do what the Grammys did, which was recognize this is a television show, people want to be entertained. They don't want to see who wins the best sound award. That's going to be a problem.

[Peter Kafka]

So maybe someone in Hollywood who knows how to make a television show could work on that with them at some point.

[Matt Bellamy]

You'd think so. But. But you. But that's not the way it works. The Academy has a board of governors with 54 governors that represent the different branches. And they tried it a few years ago. They tried to take some of the awards off camera and put them on a pre show and everyone was up in arms and then they didn't actually get any benefit in making the show shorter because everyone else. Right.

[Peter Kafka]

They lost both ways.

[Matt Bellamy]

They just went and they. And they still gave them out on the, on the air. They need to do a culling. They need to say These are the 10 awards. People care about everything. Else will be at a pre show or the commercials. And that's the way it is.

[Peter Kafka]

And the messaging from YouTube after they won this deal was, by the way, we're not going to YouTube up this show. It is going to be the show you're used to seeing on ABC. We're just going to move it over to YouTube. I understand why they both say that and probably believe that's the case, but that can't work long term.

[Matt Bellamy]

Well, the Academy produces the show. The Academy selects the producer in consultation with the broadcast partner. But ultimately that person works for the Academy. So there's the problem.

[Peter Kafka]

We'll be right back with Matt Bellamy. But first, a word from a sponsor.

[Matt Bellamy]

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[Peter Kafka]

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[Matt Bellamy]

Yes way. Guys, switch to T mobile and get iPhone 17 on us. And right now we'll pay off your old phone up to 800 bucks.

[Peter Kafka]

I'm grabbing my phone and switching to T Mobile right now. Get back, Harvey.

[Matt Bellamy]

We're taking a. Ah, let's go again, y'. All. With 24 monthly bill credits, finance agreement,

[Peter Kafka]

256 gigabytes, $830 eligible trade in example iPhone 13 and new qualifying line, $60 plus per month plan with auto pay plus taxes and fees for well qualified customers. Plus tax and $35 device connection charge. Credit tend and balance due if you pay off earlier. Cancel contact US$800 via virtual prepaid card. Card typically takes 15 days after rebate submission. No cash access and Card expires in 6 months. Check out in 15 minutes per line. Visit t mobile.com My day kicks off with a refreshing Celsius energy drink. Then straight to the gym pre K pickup back home to meal prep.

[Matt Bellamy]

Time for my fire station shift.

[Peter Kafka]

One more Celsius. Gotta keep the lights on when the three alarm hits. I'm ready. Celsius Live Fit. Go grab a cold refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate [e-mail] hey, Kara Swisher here. I want to let you know that Vox Media is returning to south by Southwest in Austin for live tapings of your favorite podcast. Join us from March 13th through the 15th for live tapings of today. Explained. Teffy talks Prof. G Markets and of course, your two favorite podcasts, Pivot and On with Kara Swisher. The stage will also feature sessions from Brene Brown and Adam Grant, Marques Brownlee, Keith Lee, Vivian Tu and Robin Arzon. It's all part of the Vox Media Podcast stage at south by Southwest, presented by Odoo. Visit voxmedia.comsxsw to pre register and get your special discount on your innovation badge. That's voxmedia.comsxsw to register. Really, you should register. We sell out and we hope to see you there. And we're back. You and I spent time last year talking about the notion that Netflix might buy the awards. Um, why didn't they. Why is it YouTube instead? They both. They both. The argument you made for YouTube buying this, that would work for Netflix as well, right?

[Matt Bellamy]

It would and they were interested. But first of all, you. Netflix already has the SAG Awards, which were renamed the Actor Awards. Not as cool. There's also a political thing within Hollywood. Netflix is already controversial within the film industry because they do not put their movies in movie theaters and give them wide releases generally. So there's a lot of people that believe that's the reason why Netflix has not won Best Picture despite campaigning heavily for a decade now.

[Peter Kafka]

And they're kind of stand in, they're stand ins for you're mad about the way technology has changed and audience has changed and Netflix is the avatar of changing Hollywood. If you're angry at it, absolutely vote against.

[Matt Bellamy]

They've done a lot to try to fix that. I mean, Ted Sarandos is on all the boards of the Academy and he does the fundraisers and they put their awards movies in theaters. And if you want to see a Netflix movie that's up for awards, you can go to a screening most nights in LA in some movie theater. But it doesn't change the fact that people have substituted Netflix for the digital boogeyman. And if Netflix started airing the Oscars, I think that might have been a bridge too far for many Academy members.

[Peter Kafka]

So gets us right into the thing that Netflix is also not doing, which is buying Warner Brothers. The Ellisons are going to buy that instead. We spent the last couple years watching David Ellison buy Paramount and now Warner's. We're going to spend the next couple years watching him combine those two companies. It'll be an ugly process. There was optimism at one point, I feel like last fall, or people preferred the idea of David Ellison buying Warner Brothers again because they didn't want Netflix to buy it. It feels like Once Netflix got it and then lost it, that. That narra is flipped. What's. What's the thing people are most correctly scared about when they think about the Ellison buying first Paramount, now Warner Brothers?

[Matt Bellamy]

I think that the thing people are scared about is simply the math. If you look at the contours of this deal, they are taking on $80 billion of debt to buy this company. And when you just went through what happened with Warner Brothers Discovery, which also took on tens of millions of dollars to combine those companies, they spent three years cutting costs.

[Peter Kafka]

Right. And cut down the debt. Cut down the debt. Cut down the debt. That was the main. That was the goal.

[Matt Bellamy]

That was the. The 100 North Star. So much so that they changed the compensation structure for David Zaslav, the CEO, so that he would 100 focus his time on cutting the debt. And to his credit, he did so. But he did so at the cost of a lot of spending that people in Hollywood are used to. And when you're combin two storied studios, the Ellisons are already talking about $6 billion in cost cuts. That's a lot of people. Now, they say that there are a lot of things. Jerry Cardinal came on my show and talked about how it's not primarily going to be employees, it's going to be

[Peter Kafka]

better tech and we're going to save money with an Oracle Cloud deal.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yes. Nobody believes that. They think that it's going to be painful, and I think they're probably right. You know, it depends what you consider to be painful. Is 20% reduction of employees painful? You know, that's thousands of employees. This is a company combined that has, you know, more than 50, 60,000 employees. So that's a lot of people. So that's the first thing. And then I do think that the freakout over the tenor of CNN and CBS News and the kind of positioning of those networks, I think people are right to recognize that Ellison has a very different view of the news than the previous ownership. He is going to move those. Those two entities rightward, he calls it, towards the center. But it's going to be more like Fox News.

[Peter Kafka]

And whether he's doing this to appease Donald Trump or because he genuinely thinks that's a good idea for a business reason or ideologically, doesn't matter. That's where it's going to go.

[Matt Bellamy]

Yeah. And knowing him a little bit, knowing Ellison, I don't think he's a particularly ideological person. He's not doing this in order, you know, create some kind of Fox News competitor because he thinks that the world needs more conservative news. I think he's looking at the market and he's saying there's one news network in cable that kicks everyone's ass. And why are they doing that? Why are they kicking everyone's ass? Because it's the one place that a center right country can congregate around a news product that they feel reflects their sensibilities. So why not compete on that playing ground then compete with this 10 other outlets that are espousing a left center view?

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, I guess I would point him to all the other networks that are trying to compete with Fox News, that that market already exists.

[Matt Bellamy]

But you mean like News Nation and Oaf and. Yeah, yeah. There's something about Fox and the populist nature and the vibrant screen and all the things that Roger Ailes invented that, that does resonate. But, but, but I see why he's doing this. I also think his father is a, is a role here, like plays a role. His father is a conservative guy, has a relationship with Trump and the political stuff. They recognize very early that they had an in here. They've got two and a half years to be in the good graces of the government. They're going to do everything they can to exploit that relationship.

[Peter Kafka]

Do you think there's anyone in Warner Brothers Discovery who is happy that the Ellisons got this deal? You heard a lot that, you know, it seemed like if Netflix bought them, they would more or less leave Warner Brothers studio alone. They basically said they were going to leave HBO alone. Those guys seemed like they were pretty psyched for that. Is there any, is there anyone in that, in, you know, Warner Brothers Discovery is a big company. Is there anyone there? It's like, oh, I would love to work with the Ellison, or that's a better option for me.

[Matt Bellamy]

Well, first of all, the shareholders of Warner Brothers Discovery, which does include a lot of senior level employees, they got more money for their shares than they ever thought they were going to get when the stock was trading at $7 less than, you know, six months ago. But I think that for, for people who believe in theatrical and theatrical distribution, I think that Ellison is at least saying the right things. Now, nobody in town believes he's going to get to 30 movies a year for both studios. He's saying that Paramount, Paramount and Warner Brothers will both release 15 movies a year in theaters, which would be more than both of them released last year. A lot more. But if he's committed to the theatrical experience and he doesn't do what Disney did when they bought Fox, which was just kind of neuter and, and downsize the Fox studio into just a label that produces a few movies a year, then that could be good and much more so than potentially what Netflix was going to do. Now Netflix was also saying they're going to maintain the theatrical windows. But I, after a couple years, I could have absolutely seen Ted Sarando say, you know what? We tried it. Not our model. We're going to go back to producing all of our movies for Netflix with a few big superhero movies in theaters.

[Peter Kafka]

And I think we'll spend a couple years speculating about, you know, is Casey Bloys from HBO going to stay and where else would he go? And we'll see how. Well, that's, yeah, that's not, I mean,

[Matt Bellamy]

they're saying the right things and I'm told that, that David did call Casey and a number of the top executives and say hello and you know, tell them that they're great. Which is I guess the first step there. But it doesn't change the dynamic because if you look at what Cindy Holland is doing at, at Paramount, former Netflix, she's the head of streaming.

[Peter Kafka]

Former Netflix, former Netflix head and she's

[Matt Bellamy]

the head of streaming at Paramount. She's greenlighting a lot of shows that arguably could be considered HBO style shows. She's, you know, this Jeremy Strong 911 show where he plays a firefighter. There's a lot, a number of other things she's got the Duffer Brothers like. I, I think that, that there's going to be conflict there, not just in who Casey reports to. He could report to David Ellison as is in his contract. But what do these platforms mean? What do they go after? Is Ellison going to take the Max part out of HBO Max and just have them focus on the prestige of the prestige, or is he going to let them do shows like the Pit or the Penguin or you know, welcome to Derry or these more populist style IP driven HBO shows that they've been doing over the past year, couple years now to try to broaden out the HBO Max brand. That's an interesting question.

[Peter Kafka]

We'll be right back. But first, a word from a sponsor.

[Matt Bellamy]

Pausar rapida esto mesorndio los consecos masutiles sino de gente comun and TikTok lo que funciona lo que no sin vueltas descarga TikTok y comprehensive. Ambassador Rahm Emanuel served as President Obama's chief of staff, an administration that had to deal with its fair share of global conflicts. He dealt directly with Israel's prime minister and thought plenty about the threat from Iran. But Emmanuel told me that the pace of action from this president in the Middle east is giving him whiplash. In 15 months, this president has taken

[Peter Kafka]

military action against eight countries. Just in 15. Now we got three more years to go.

[Matt Bellamy]

In 15 months, Iran twice. But you have Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Venezuela. I'm losing Nigeria today. Explained in your feed every weekday and on Saturdays, too.

[Peter Kafka]

Are Democrats their own biggest problem? You know, a party becomes defined by who their central figure, who their quarterback becomes. Democrats haven't really anointed a effective quarterback since Barack Obama, pretty much. And this week, the Atlantic staff writer Mark Leibovich joins me to discuss the state of the Democratic Party and which races to keep an eye out for this midterm election. The episode is out now. Search and follow Stay tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts. And we're back. As you know, one thing I am obsessed with and also obsessed with the fact that fewer people are obsessed with this is where the money is coming from. And are we going to see $24 billion in Gulf money? And again, not from companies in the Gulf, but Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar were supposed to kick in $24 billion when this deal was being discussed late last year. Now, Paramount won't talk about that, at least on the record at the moment.

[Matt Bellamy]

Well, they're not. Yeah. Jerry Cardinal basically says we're going to syndicate this money. We're meaning we're going to bring in investors, but they won't say who. And guess why they're still trying to get this deal approved. And last thing they want is an entire street full of Democratic senators with pitchforks going after their Saudi money, even though they've already said that they're likely going to have Saudi and Qatar and Abu Dhabi money.

[Peter Kafka]

Right. That's, that's why. So my two theories were one, they just don't want to talk about it and they'll wait as long as they can. But again, you interview Jerry Cardinal, and he basically said it's great to have Gulf money if we were to have Gulf money. The positive things that are happening in the Middle east right now, it's from these sovereigns, which is a wild quote to say. And the other theory is maybe these deals actually aren't done, and maybe the fact that there is a war in the Middle east right now may make Saudis or somebody else more reticent to put money in. I'm kind of assuming if the Saudis wanted to put $10 billion into this last fall that they still want to put $10 billion, it's not very much money for them.

[Matt Bellamy]

There's been some reporting that might change and there's also been some reporting that Tencent in China might be back in as well. I think what's probably going on with Jerry is they want to keep their options open. And even though they may have these handshake commitments from these groups, they. They want to potentially bring in others. I mean, some of the analysts, one of the analysts, Peter Subino, suggested they bring in more equity investors to bring down that debt. And maybe there are others out there they can recruit now that they have more time to come into this deal.

[Peter Kafka]

So assuming this deal goes through and doesn't really seem to be any practical way to stop it, as far as I can tell, maybe you think differently.

[Matt Bellamy]

States are talking a big game, but we'll see what they do.

[Peter Kafka]

Yeah, I mean, it seems unlikely, but you never know. You certainly don't want to prognosticate too much. Well, and so Elizabeth Warren, people like that, people like me will say, hey, it's pretty wild to have Saudi Arabia putting $10 billion into this company that controls CNN, ETC. Will anyone else care? Will Hollywood care that there is golf money?

[Matt Bellamy]

You know what? I don't think so. I think that when push comes to shove, people want their projects made. And they worked with Rupert Murdoch for many years at Fox. And there was a. He was very smart. He kept it separate. Fox News was in New York, separate leadership team. The studio was the studio. And they worked with the kind of creators that very much did not like Fox News. And I think that that will be the prevailing wisdom unless it becomes something that people that stars get asked about on the red carpet or becomes embarrassing for them. Maybe it could be a deciding factor. If a hot project is going to one of two buyers and one is the Ellisons, the other is someone who's not involved in this stuff. Maybe it could decide, but I don't think, first of all, there's only a certain number of buyers in Hollywood. So you've got it. You gotta, you know, work with everyone if you can. And it just people want to see their projects made.

[Peter Kafka]

I was talking to someone who's probably going to get Saudi money and they were sort of practicing their like, explanation for why they need it. And it comes down to I want the money. But they've got a whole rap about did they make a mistake? It was like what we saw last summer with the comedy festival. Did they make a You know, they're, they're modernizing. They're not the country you think. And did they make a mistake when the, when the head of Saudi Arabia had Jamal Khashoggi dismembered? Yes. Was that a big mistake? Sure. But, you know, we gotta move on. And I think I've heard that argument.

[Matt Bellamy]

And listen, I get it. I get it. Again, there's only a few entities that are willing to support these kinds of projects, and most of them have something that's wrong with them, whether it's a human rights thing. I mean, Hollywood was. Was enamored with China for many years because the market was opening up and the movies would do well there. And, you know, they have their human rights issues as well. Disney does business with them, has a theme park there. There is a. The world is a complicated place. I understand that this one irks a lot of journalists because of the nature of the. The mistakes, as you put it. So, you know, but Jerry Cardinal doesn't have any problem with it. The money men don't have any problem with it. Yeah.

[Peter Kafka]

And their point is, and his point specifically is not only do we not have a problem with the government doesn't have a problem with it. The Trump administration is, is actively encouraging investment in Saudi Arabia. BROUG all those CEOs there. Had the prince at the White House literally rolled out the red carpet for him. So that's complaining about it is a pre2024 thing. It sounds like his argument is. Last question for you. We had Janice Min, your former colleague competitor, on a few weeks ago, and I was asking her for a sort of vibe check from Hollywood and said it's really grim. She said Detroit like vibes going on here. Between consolidation, production leaving town, the threat of AI, threat of tech in general. Want to make an optimist case for, for Hollywood, anything. Any green shoots that you see is. Is the Hollywood is cooked meme overdone.

[Matt Bellamy]

I think this is a period of transition and it's going to be an extremely painful period of transition. But there are opportunities and you see them everywhere. What's going on in the creator space right now is pretty exciting. And the opportunities for people to build their own brands and creators to have not just a springboard to getting traditional deals or, you know, you. You're markiplier and you have a following on YouTube and you use your own money from YouTube to make a movie and your fans show up and it opens to $20 million. That's an incredible success story that would never have been possible even 10 years ago in Hollywood.

[Peter Kafka]

I mean, YouTube has been around for 20 years. We've been waiting for someone to come out of YouTube or MySpace before that and make that leap to movies, and it hasn't happened. It's really interesting that it took that long. And I don't know whether that means it's going to be incredibly rare or we'll see more of it.

[Matt Bellamy]

The business is becoming more sophisticated. I mean, everyone's like, oh, everyone in Hollywood is downsizing. That's true. But there's this entire diaspora of creator and podcast and video and micro dramas and all these other things that have popped up around Hollywood and the Borg of Hollywood is sort of assimilating them. The agencies now all cater to this area of the business. The studios are becoming interested. The money is finding them. So it's just a different. The definition of Hollywood is expanding. And while we're seeing the decline of the traditional studios, I think overall, once this transition period is over, you are going to see a rebuttal. Robust entertainment industry.

[Peter Kafka]

You did an excellent job of answering the optimism question. Spoken like someone who is a successful creator himself that does newsletters and audio podcasts and we're still doing audio only here. But you're doing. You moved into video. So maybe, maybe the future looks bright for you as well.

[Matt Bellamy]

Man, the world needs my face.

[Peter Kafka]

You'll get better seats next year, if not this year. Matt, Melanie from Puck from the Town, thank you for joining.

[Matt Bellamy]

Thank you very much.

[Peter Kafka]

Much thanks again to Matt Bellany. I should have him on more than once a year. I'm going to try to fix that in 2026. Thanks to Charlotte Silver who produces and edits the show. Thanks to our advertisers who bring it to you for free. Thanks to you guys for listening. See you.