What should the United States realistically expect from high-level diplomacy with China — and where are the real risks in the relationship?

In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates is joined by Andrew Harding, Policy Analyst for National Security and Indo-Pacific Affairs at The Heritage Foundation, for a detailed breakdown of President Trump’s recent summit with Xi Jinping and the broader future of U.S.-China relations.

Harding explains how the Heritage Foundation developed a framework for evaluating the summit — identifying what would constitute favorable outcomes for the United States, what risks to avoid, and how to think strategically about long-term competition with China.

The discussion explores how the summit ultimately functioned less as a transformational moment and more as a “maintenance check” on an increasingly competitive relationship between Washington and Beijing.

Major topics include:
• Expectations surrounding the Trump–Xi summit
• Favorable vs unfavorable outcomes for U.S. policy
• Rare earths, export controls, and AI competition
• Why advanced semiconductor restrictions matter
• China’s role in fentanyl trafficking and leverage
• Taiwan and concerns over shifting U.S. policy language
• Agricultural trade and strategic economic competition
• China’s support for Iran and geopolitical implications
• Human rights concerns, including Jimmy Lai and religious persecution
• Why the U.S.–China relationship remains structurally competitive
• The future of AI rivalry between Washington and Beijing
• Strategic dependencies and supply chain vulnerabilities

The episode also dives into Harding’s earlier work on the Pacific Islands and the Compacts of Free Association (COFA), highlighting why the region has become increasingly important in the context of U.S.-China competition.

Additional topics include:
• Chinese influence operations in the Pacific Islands
• Why Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands matter strategically
• Heritage Foundation’s role in supporting COFA renewal efforts
• The “Pacific Pivot” strategy for long-term U.S. engagement

A major takeaway from the conversation is that future U.S.-China engagement should focus on protecting American strategic advantages — especially in AI, advanced technology, and national security — while avoiding concessions that weaken U.S. leverage.

The episode closes with a broader discussion on what to watch for ahead of a possible future Xi visit to the United States and why export controls and AI competition may become the defining issue of the next phase of U.S.-China relations.

00:00 — Intro + Andrew Harding joins
02:08 — From Russia to China policy work
06:21 — Pacific Islands strategy and COFA agreements
10:14 — Heritage’s “Pacific Pivot” strategy
11:16 — Expectations for the Trump–Xi summit
13:53 — Favorable outcomes for the U.S.
16:19 — Unfavorable outcomes and red lines
19:09 — Did the summit accomplish anything?
22:06 — Engagement vs strategic competition
27:07 — Preparing for a future Xi visit to the U.S.
32:19 — What to watch next: AI and export controls
35:23 — Final thoughts + closing

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