Podcast
China Global
Hosted by The German Marshall Fund · EN
China’s rise has captivated and vexed the international community. From defense, technology, and the environment, to trade, academia, and human rights, much of what Beijing does now reverberates across the map. China Global is a new podcast from the German Marshall Fund that decodes Beijing’s global ambitions as they unfold. Every other week, host Bonnie Glaser will be joined by a different international expert for an illuminating discussion on a different aspect of China’s foreign policy, the worldview that drives its actions, the tactics it’s using to achieve its goals—and what that means for the rest of the world.
16episodes
Episodes
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China's Push to Internationalize the RMB
1w ago00:31:31Tap to summarizeA currency becomes “internationalized” when it is widely used beyond its home economy for trade, financial transactions, and as a store of value. Achieving that status can lower transaction costs and exchange rate risks, while also enhancing the issuing country’s geopolitical influence. Today, the global financial system remains overwhelmingly dollar-centric, with China’s renminbi playing a comparatively modest role. Yet over the past decade, Beijing has taken steps to expand its global use, expanding offshore renminbi markets, establishing bilateral swap lines, and developing alternative payment infrastructure. To help us unpack where China’s renminbi internationalization efforts stand today, we are joined by Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Zoe’s research centers on international political economy and global financial markets, with a focus on China and East Asia, as well as the Middle East. She is the author of Can BRICS De-dollarize the Global Financial System? and Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Global Ambitions. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:54] Strategic Motivations for Beijing [04:55] Progress Report on RMB Internationalization [08:16] Main Mechanisms Used to Promote the RMB [11:08] RMB in the Belt and Road Initiative [13:46] Using Clean Energy Supply Chains to Promote RMB in Key Commodities [15:57] RMB as a Reserve Currency? [21:23] Xi’s Fourth Term Goals with the RMB [27:26] How Global Conflicts Impact RMB Internationalization
Transcribe →Why China–North Korea Ties Are Warming Again
3w ago00:29:56Tap to summarizeIn the 1950s, Mao Zedong described the relationship between China and North Korea as “as close as lips and teeth.” Over subsequent decades, the relationship has ebbed and flowed, alternating between close alignment and periods of strain. In recent months, China-NK ties appear to be warming once again. A series of high-level exchanges, including Kim Jong Un’s attendance at China’s Victory Day parade last September, followed by a trip to North Korea by Chinese Premier Li Qiang the following month, suggest renewed diplomatic momentum. Chinese Foreign Affairs Commission Director and Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Pyongyang in mid-April is the latest sign of this trend. What is driving this renewed rapprochement between China and North Korea, and what are the implications for the United States? To explore these questions, we are joined today by Andrew Scobell. Andrew is a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for Security and Development Policy’s Asia Program and an adjunct professor at Georgetown University. His work focuses on Chinese foreign and security policy, and he has published extensively on China-North Korea relations. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:38] China’s Interests on the Korean Peninsula [04:41] A Cooling of Pyongyang-Beijing Relations? [07:48] How Beijing Views Russia-North Korea Ties [11:26] What’s Driving Chinese Interest in North Korea [14:57] Assessing Wang Yi’s Visit to Pyongyang [18:20] Shifting Stances on Denuclearization [22:09] Implications for the United States [25:48] US-China Shared Interests on the Korean Peninsula
Transcribe →Unpacking the Xi-Cheng Meeting: Objectives and Outcomes
Apr 1400:34:25Tap to summarizeOn today’s episode, we’ll discuss the recent meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun, the first in a decade between a Chinese Communist Party General Secretary and a KMT Chair. Ms. Cheng was elected party chair only four months ago, and her top priority was to meet with Xi Jinping. She has not yet visited the United States, but says she intends to do so later this year. In their public statements, Xi Jinping and Cheng Li-wun highlighted several common themes, including opposition to Taiwan independence, support for the 1992 Consensus, shared history and Chinese heritage, that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are one family, the importance of China’s national rejuvenation, and the need to preserve peace and promote the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations. To discuss this historic meeting, I’m joined by Amanda Hsiao. Amanda is a director in Eurasia Group's China practice covering China's foreign policy and cross-strait relations. This episode was recorded on April 10, 2026. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:42] Why the Xi–Cheng Meeting Matters [03:00] Cheng Li-wun’s Aims and Messaging [06:13] Xi Jinping’s Strategic Objectives [11:17] Signaling Ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit [13:23] Progress Towards Unification [17:53] Shifting Positions on the 1992 Consensus [22:25] Public Views of Cheng Li-wun [26:32] Potential Shifts to China’s Taiwan Policy [28:12] Implications for Use of Force [30:34] What Stood Out During Cheng’s China Trip
Transcribe →What the Iran War Means for China’s Energy Security
Mar 3100:28:38Tap to summarizeOn February 28th, the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on multiple sites in Iran, marking the beginning of a wider military conflict with Iran. Tehran responded with attacks on Israel, US military bases, and US allies across the Middle East and closed the Strait of Hormuz. These events have caused a major disruption in the global supply of oil and gas. China, as the world’s largest energy importer, is exposed to these disruptions, but its long-term energy security strategy has left it better prepared than most. How has China approached energy security, and how might the current conflict reshape this strategy? To discuss these issues, we are joined today by Dr. Erica Downs. Erica is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. Her research focuses on Chinese energy markets and geopolitics, and she has published extensively on the subject. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:38] China’s Energy Security Strategy [03:54] Divergent Approaches to Energy Security in the US and China [06:03] Beijing’s Response to Supply Chain Shocks [09:55] Dependencies on Russian Oil & Gas [12:33] New Lessons for Chinese Policymakers? [15:30] Impact on Teapot Refineries and Responses [18:37] Percentage of Chinese Oil and Gas Impacted [22:26] Could China Buy Gas from the US? [25:15] Potential Wins and Losses for Chinese Industries
Transcribe →What to Expect from the Trump-Xi Summit: A Conversation with Dr. Da Wei
Mar 1700:40:00Tap to summarizePresident Donald Trump is expected to visit Beijing from March 31 to April 2 for a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. It will mark the first meeting between the two leaders since they agreed to a trade truce last October that ended months of escalating tensions prompted by tariffs imposed by the United States and Chinese restrictions on rare earth exports. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris later this week to explore possible outcomes that could be announced during the Beijing summit. Planning for such a major summit usually takes place over several months, and is getting underway quite late, causing many observers to question whether anything meaningful can be achieved. In the meantime, the US is distracted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East between Iran and a US-Israel coalition. To discuss the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, we're joined today by Dr. Da Wei. He is director of the Center for International Security and Strategy and professor of International Relations at Qinghua University. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:40] The Status of US-China Relations [03:07] Middle East War Impact on the Bilateral Relationship [05:36] Rethinking the US Decline in Chinese Foreign Policy [08:23] Chinese and US Sources of Leverage [13:01] Beijing’s Goals for the Trump-Xi Summit [19:52] New Language for Taiwan [30:12] Expanding Chinese Investment in the US? [32:03] Potential for US-China Cooperation on Iran? [35:54] Implications of Military Officer Purges
Transcribe →China-Iran Relations: Transactional or Strategic?
Mar 300:34:13Tap to summarizeThe United States is once again considering military strikes to curb Iran’s nuclear activities and missile program. China has emerged as a particularly important partner of Iran, serving as the country’s largest trade partner and one of its few sources of consistent diplomatic backing. For Beijing, the stakes in the relationship extend beyond energy security, but also include great power competition with the US and China’s broader strategic ambitions in the Middle East. There are reports that Iran is close to finalizing a deal to purchase supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles from China. To unpack China-Iran relations and these recent dynamics, we are joined today by Jonathan Fulton. Jonathan is a nonresident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and an associate professor of political science at Zayed University in Abu Dhabi. His research focuses on China-GCC relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Chinese foreign policy. This episode was recorded on February 26, 2026. Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [01:33] China’s Interests in Iran and Possible Reactions [04:55] Challenges to Diversifying Oil Imports [09:40] Using Oil Purchases as Leverage with the US [10:59] Frictions in the China-Iran Relationship [12:41] Iran in China’s Middle East Strategy [16:00] Iran–China 25-year Cooperation Program [21:56] China-Russia Coordination in Iran Strategy [25:54] Tehran's Points of Leverage with Beijing and Moscow [29:14] Potential Disruptors to the China-Iran Relationship
Transcribe →If China Attacks Taiwan: China's Economic Vulnerabilities
Feb 1700:32:47Tap to summarizeToday’s episode is the third in a series of three that examine the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. The report is titled, “If China Attacks Taiwan” and it is posted on GMFUS.org. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for the Chinese economy.To recap, the study considered two scenarios that could take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalates into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military are killed, U.S. intervention eventually forces China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalates into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces are degraded and eventually withdraw after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.Our guests today are Charlie Vest and Logan Wright, who co-authored the chapter on the implications for the Chinese economy of a failed operation against Taiwan. Logan is a partner at Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China’s economy and its global impact. Charlie is an associate director at Rhodium Group, where he manages corporate research and advisory work on China.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:34] Key Takeaways: China’s Ambitions vs. Economic Realities [05:41] The Escalation Dilemma in China's Decisionmaking[09:56] Immediate Disruptions to Trade and FDI[13:52] Gray-Zone Military Engagement and Political Pressures[16:48] Could Beijing Underestimate the Costs of US Intervention? [24:12] Policy Tools and Limitations for Economic Stabilization and Recovery[27:19] Long-Term Economic Effects[29:24] Impact of Social Instability
Transcribe →If China Attacks Taiwan: Beijing Risks Social Instability in a Taiwan Conflict
Feb 300:37:08Tap to summarizeToday’s episode is the second in a three-part series that examines the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In each of these episodes, we’re speaking with authors of a recently published German Marshall Fund study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs. Our podcast today focuses on the potential costs for domestic social stability. To recap, the study considered two scenarios occurring in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also US forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties. Joining us today are Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Jake Rinaldi. Sheena is an associate professor at the University of Texas at Austin and visiting research faculty at the US Army War College. Jake is an associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation.Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [02:11] Why This Matters to US Policymakers [04:37] Managing Social Stability During Conflict with Taiwan [08:01] How the CCP Identifies and Suppresses Sources of Instability[10:44] Social Stability Organizations and Institutions [15:06] Domestic Pressures & Potential Party Responses [19:00] Estimating Public Support for Reunification [23:09] Scenario 3: Protracted Conventional Conflict [26:55] Lessons Learned from COVID Lockdowns [31:28] Long-Term Implications for Stability Post-Conflict
Transcribe →If China Attacks Taiwan: Military Risks and International Costs
Jan 2100:38:17Tap to summarizeConcern about the possibility of a Chinese attack against Taiwan has surged in recent years. Wargames and research studies have focused primarily on identifying gaps in US and allied capabilities with the goal of strengthening deterrence. A relatively understudied question, however, is the potential consequences for China if a military operation against Taiwan were to fail. To address this gap, the German Marshall Fund led a study of the possible costs that China would incur across four different, but interrelated areas: the Chinese economy, the military, Chinese social stability, and international costs.GMF commissioned four papers on these key areas. We considered two scenarios that could realistically take place in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multi-week maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, US intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.The authors found that the costs to China of a failed military action against Taiwan would likely be considerable. We believe their findings are important and warrant wide dissemination. In this podcast, we’ll discuss the report’s major conclusions and implications. Then we’ll talk about the potential impact of a failed Chinese attempt to take Taiwan on China’s military capabilities and the possible international costs that Beijing could face. Our next two China Global podcasts will examine the implications of a failed military operation against Taiwan for China’s economy and social stability.Our guests today are Zack Cooper and Joel Wuthnow. Zack is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and lecturer at Princeton University. Joel is a senior research fellow in the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs within the Institute for National Strategic Studies at NDU. Joel’s paper and this interview reflect only his personal views and not those of the National Defense University, the Department of War, or the US government.Timestamps: [00:00] Introduction [03:22] Implications for China, the United States, and Taiwan [06:31] Actions to Strengthen Deterrence [08:50] Evaluating Costs and Risks for Chinese Decisionmakers[11:46] Lessons Learned for the PLA [14:05] Steps to Avoid Another Attack [17:14] Intensifying Frictions between Party and Military? [19:53] Anticipating US Intervention as a Military Variable [22:49] Countries and Organizations Likely to Respond to China[25:55] Potential Diplomatic Actions and Costs[31:50] A Treaty Alliance with Taiwan [34:44] Why International Costs Matter to China
Transcribe →China’s Latin America Strategy: A Collision Course with the U.S.?
Jan 600:31:20Tap to summarizeAlthough geographically distant from Chinese shores, Latin America and the Caribbean occupy an important place in Chinese foreign policy. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in the region. The main vector of Chinese involvement has been economic, including securing access to commodities such as soybeans, copper, oil, and lithium, creating markets for Chinese companies, and deepening financial ties through trade, lending, and infrastructure investment. On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration’s release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition. To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China’s policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State’s policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:07] US and China on a Collision Course? [04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America [08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments[11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda[14:27] How Latin Americans View China’s Growing Presence[17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China[21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns [25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela
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