Podcast
Chip Stock Investor Podcast
Hosted by Nicholas Rossolillo; Kasey Rossolillo · EN
Semiconductors are the heart of the modern economy. These small devices that manipulate the flow of electricity run everything from our PCs and smartphones to our cars to manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is at an inflection point of renewed growth, powering new movements like generative AI and electric vehicles.
The Chip Stock Investor Podcast explores how semiconductors work, and especially the business of chips. Follow Nicholas and Kasey to learn how chip technology has become the engine of the world, and how to invest in its growth.
52episodes
Episodes
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Wafer Fab Equipment, M&A Moves & The Lab 7 You've Never Heard Of
5d ago00:15:44Tap to summarizeAre the Fab 5 wafer fab equipment companies — ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA Corp — still worth buying at today's valuations? CSI breaks down 20 years of revenue data across the five companies that control roughly 70% of annual global fab equipment spending, and explain why 2026 and 2027 are shaping up to be record revenue years — with a potential speed bump in 2028 worth watching.The conversation also covers the wave of creative M&A reshaping the equipment landscape: the Axcelis and Veeco merger nearing final approval, Onto Innovation's strategic equity stake in X-ray imaging firm Rigaku, and Applied Materials' targeted acquisition of an advanced packaging segment from ASMPT.But the most overlooked part of this episode is the introduction of the Lab 7 — a group of life science and laboratory capital equipment companies, including Thermo Fisher, Agilent, Bruker, and Revvity, that share surprising structural overlap with semiconductor supply chain investing. CSI explains why these companies could serve as a diversification play for semiconductor-heavy portfolios, and why the two industries may begin to converge.If you're wondering how to stay invested in the semiconductor supply chain without overconcentrating in a handful of names, this episode gives you a research-backed framework for thinking about it.Topics covered:- Fab 5 revenue breakdown and 20-year performance- Is wafer fab equipment overpriced in 2026?- Axcelis + Veeco merger update- Onto Innovation & Rigaku X-ray partnership- Applied Materials acquires ASMPT packaging segment- Introducing the Lab 7: life science meets semiconductor- Portfolio diversification beyond the semiconductor supply chain- Semiconductor market cycle outlook through 2028 and beyondFor in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.
Transcribe →Amphenol Deep Dive: AI Data Center Bottleneck, CommScope Drag & Is APH Actually Cheap? (Q1 2026)
1w ago00:14:41Tap to summarizeAmphenol (APH) just reported Q1 2026 earnings and the stock sold off — but the revenue numbers tell a different story. In this episode, Kasey and Nick break down every segment of Amphenol's business and ask whether this "boring" semiconductor supply chain stock is one of the better values in AI infrastructure right now.Amphenol is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electrical connectors, cables, antennas, and sensors. It operates across 350 facilities worldwide and sits at the intersection of AI data centers, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial automation, and satellite communications. It doesn't make a flashy end product — but nearly every major AI infrastructure build runs through Amphenol components.In this episode we cover:— IT DataCom: now 41% of Amphenol's total revenue and nearly doubling year over year as AI data center demand drives cable and connector spending— Industrial: 20% of revenue, up 16% organically, led by building connectivity and automation sensors— Communications networks: 91% as-reported growth boosted by the CommScope acquisition, but flat organically — broadband infrastructure spending has softened— Defense: up 44% year over year, with high single digit growth expected to continue— Automotive: soft in Asia, down 7% sequentially, modest recovery expected in Q2— Commercial air and mobile devices: small segments, largely holding steadyWe also dig into why earnings per share is growing slightly slower than revenue despite strong AI data center demand — and the answer comes down to the CommScope acquisition. CommScope's margins are lower than Amphenol's existing business, integration takes time, and the long-term debt load is now visible on the balance sheet. None of this is unusual for a major acquisition, but it explains the market's reaction.We close with a reverse DCF scenario using a five-year average growth rate of 22% and a 4% terminal growth rate — and discuss what that implies about fair value for APH stock as of May 2026.If you're researching semiconductor stocks, AI infrastructure investing, or picks-and-shovels plays in the data center buildout, this is an episode worth your time.More research and stock tools at chipstockinvestor.com — and join Semi Insider for deeper analysis.
Transcribe →Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49 Billion in Free Cash Flow, the CPU Supplier Claim That Changes Everything, and Whether NVDA Is Actually Cheap
2w ago00:12:49Tap to summarizeNvidia just reported Q1 fiscal year 2027. The numbers are extraordinary even by Nvidia's own standards. Free cash flow of $49 billion. A nearly 60% free cash flow margin. Revenue guidance implying over $300 billion for calendar year 2026, with some estimates suggesting $400 billion is possible. Next quarter alone: $91 billion in guided revenue. Vera Rubin is beginning to ship and is expected to generate $20 billion in its first six months.And then Jensen Huang said something on the earnings call that almost nobody covered.Nvidia plans to become the world's largest CPU supplier in 2026.That single claim has profound implications — for Intel, for AMD, for every investor tracking the CPU market, and for the semiconductor supply chain at large. CSI called this out as a remote possibility during their CPU market share update just weeks earlier. Now it is a public commitment from Jensen Huang himself.CSI works through the full picture in this episode. They cover Nvidia's new revenue reporting framework — the shift from a single data center segment to two sub-markets. Hyperscale covers the five major cloud providers: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. ACIE covers AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign data centers. This segmentation matters enormously because 80% of global IT spending is still on legacy systems. The enterprise migration to AI infrastructure is just beginning to happen at scale, and for the first time investors have direct visibility into it through Nvidia's own reporting.They also run the reverse DCF at $223 per share. The result: 20% free cash flow per share growth over five years at a 6% terminal rate gets you to today's price. That is not historically cheap for Nvidia. But it is the lowest bar the company has had to clear in years — and given that EPS grew 214% and FCF per share grew 88% in Q1 alone, clearing that bar looks more feasible than it sounds.CSI's updated position: Nvidia remains their largest personal holding. The updated baseline assumption is 50% stock price growth for 2026, revised upward from 40%. Not a prediction. A framework for thinking about what the business needs to deliver to justify current prices.What we cover:— Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49B FCF, 60% FCF margin, EPS +214% YoY— Revenue outlook: $300B+ in 2026, $91B guided next quarter— Vera Rubin: $20B in sales expected in first six months— New reporting framework: hyperscale vs. ACIE and why it matters— The enterprise migration — 80% of global IT still on legacy systems— Jensen's CPU claim: Nvidia to be world's largest CPU supplier in 2026— Reverse DCF at $223: 20% FCF/share growth, 6% terminal rate— Why Nvidia has looked "boring" while small caps ran hundreds of percent— Updated CSI baseline: 50% stock price target revised upwardSemi Insider members get access to CSI's full DCF and reverse DCF tools, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.comDisclosure: Nick and Kasey have a position in Nvidia. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →Hospitals Are Using YETI Coolers for Heart Transplants — TransMedics Just Built Something Better (TMDX Q1 2026)
2w ago00:14:13Tap to summarizeOn the Q1 2026 earnings call for TransMedics, the CEO said something that stopped everyone in their tracks. Major transplant programs, he said, are going to Home Depot and buying YETI coolers to preserve human hearts before transplantation. None of those coolers are FDA-approved. None are validated for that purpose. That is the status quo TransMedics is trying to replace.This is CSI's update on TransMedics following their May 5th earnings report. TransMedics is not a semiconductor company — it sits in CSI's small bets basket, a collection of positions outside the core semiconductor thesis that Kasey follows closely. The company is building what it describes as the premier program for organ transplantation, combining a warm perfusion technology called the Organ Care System with its own aviation logistics network to dramatically improve the odds that a donated organ reaches its recipient in viable condition.The Q1 2026 numbers are solid. Revenue of $174 million, up 21% year over year, with 82% of organ transplants now covered by TransMedics' own logistics service. But the more interesting story is what comes next across four distinct growth catalysts.First, the CHOPS system — a new cold preservation device TransMedics just developed to serve the segment of the heart transplant market where cold storage is sufficient and warm perfusion is not required. Of 4,646 hearts transplanted in 2025, roughly 2,100 were preserved for less than four hours. That entire segment is currently going to Home Depot coolers. CHOPS is also the control arm TransMedics needed to run the ENHANCE Heart clinical trials — a clever solution to the problem of not being able to find a competitor willing to run head-to-head against their warm perfusion system.Second, European expansion — a logistics partnership with PAD Aviation in Germany and new infrastructure in Italy that could eventually double the total addressable market.Third, the kidney opportunity. Over 20,000 deceased kidney transplants happen annually in the United States. Between 8,000 and 9,000 kidneys are discarded every year due to prolonged ischemic times. TransMedics has designed a Gen 3.0 OCS platform for kidney transplantation, targeting 2027 for market entry.Fourth, the Gen 3.0 platform upgrade for liver, heart, and lung — parallel development tracks that modernize the core product across every organ.Kasey closes with something genuinely useful: an honest accounting of what could go right and what could go wrong, and why she continues to hold a small position.This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members get Kasey and Nick's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com/membershipWhat we cover:— The CHOPS cold preservation system and why it exists— ENHANCE Heart trial — Part A and Part B explained— Will CHOPS cannibalize OCS warm perfusion revenue? The CEO's answer— Heart transplant market data — 2,131 hearts going to cold storage annually— European expansion — PAD Aviation and Italy buildout— The kidney opportunity — 20,000+ transplants, 8,000–9,000 discarded— OCS Gen 3.0 — kidney platform targeting 2027— Q1 2026 financials — $174M revenue, balance sheet, Summit Aviation debt— What could go right and what could go wrong for TMDX— CSI's current position and ongoing convictionDisclosure: Kasey and Nick hold a position in TransMedics. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →$750 Billion in AI CapEx: Who Eats First — The Hyperscaler Hierarchy, Neo Cloud Risk, and Enterprise SaaS Under Pressure
3w ago00:18:41Tap to summarizeAmazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta just collectively committed to over $750 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. They spent $130 billion in a single quarter. That is a 70% increase from what these companies spent in 2025 — and the spending is still accelerating into the second half of the year.The ROI is showing up. Operating margins are expanding across all four businesses. Google Cloud grew 63% year over year. AWS grew 28%. Microsoft Intelligent Cloud grew 29%. Meta grew revenue 33%. This is not speculative infrastructure spending anymore. These are some of the most profitable businesses ever built, getting more profitable.But the more important conversation is about what this means for everyone else.CSI has a framework for understanding how AI infrastructure investment actually flows — and it is the most useful mental model for investors trying to figure out where value accrues in the AI buildout. The hyperscalers eat first. They buy the technology and deploy it internally before any customer touches it. Their strategic investment partners eat second — OpenAI, Anthropic, and others who receive capital and get early infrastructure access. Enterprise software companies and Neo Cloud providers eat third. They get the leftovers, and right now they are scrambling.This creates two distinct problems. Neo Cloud companies have great infrastructure but no vertical integration — no final product of their own. The moment spare capacity appears in the market, their economics break down rapidly. Enterprise SaaS companies have great products but no infrastructure control — they get stuck waiting for technology that the hyperscalers have already been using internally for years.CSI lays out what both camps need to do to survive the next phase: Neo Clouds need to start developing software and services of their own before excess capacity forces their hand. Enterprise software companies need to start acquiring infrastructure assets — and there are already early signals that the smarter ones are doing exactly that.This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members receive CSI's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens — not weeks later. If that matters to you, the membership page is at chipstockinvestor.comWhat we cover:— Why hyperscaler earnings reactions are about cashflow expectations not beats or misses— $750B+ in 2026 AI CapEx — full breakdown across Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta— Amazon Q1 2026: AWS +28% YoY, operating margin expanding to 13.1%— Microsoft Q1 2026: Intelligent Cloud +29% YoY, 46.3% operating margin— Alphabet Q1 2026: Google Cloud +63% YoY, 36.1% operating margin— Meta Q1 2026: +33% revenue, CapEx raised to $245B, why the stock reaction was muted— The ROI is real — operating leverage across all four hyperscalers— The "who eats first" hierarchy — the most useful AI investing framework right now— Neo Cloud companies — the vertical integration problem and what needs to change— Enterprise SaaS — why they are chasing the puck and what the smart ones are doing— Early signals: Salesforce, Snowflake, Fortinet, Trade Desk CapEx movesDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in several companies mentioned. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →Faraj Aalaei on Why AI Will Let Anyone Design a Chip — and What Happens When the Semiconductor Industry Finally Catches Up
3w ago00:46:35Tap to summarizeIn 2000, venture capitalists funded 200 semiconductor companies. By 2015, that number had fallen to single digits. The cost of designing a chip went from $33 million in the late 1990s to over $200 million today, and it takes four or more years to complete. There are not enough engineers. The timelines are too long. The investment risk is too high.Faraj Aalaei has spent three decades watching this problem build. He co-founded Centillium Communications and took it public on Nasdaq in 1997. He co-founded Aquantia, took it public in 2017, and sold it to Marvell Semiconductors in 2019. He then spent several years investing in AI companies before recognizing that generative AI could do for chip design what it has done for software — compress timelines, reduce cost, and open the field to a much wider group of contributors.In 2024, he founded Cognichip with a straightforward but ambitious vision: everybody should be able to be a chip designer.Nick sits down with Faraj for a wide-ranging conversation that covers the full landscape — why the semiconductor industry has a structural problem that EDA companies like Synopsys and Cadence cannot solve alone, why generic large language models fall flat when applied to chip design, how Cognichip trains physics-informed models on proprietary synthetic data without touching any customer IP, and what actually happens to the semiconductor industry when design timelines collapse from years to months.The implications are significant. Hyperscalers like Google, Meta, and Microsoft could design more bespoke ASICs faster and cheaper. Foundries like TSMC would see shorter cycles between customer signup and first wafer revenue. Startups that today cannot raise funding because the design cost is too high would suddenly become investable. And companies like Nvidia — which already iterate faster than anyone in the industry — could move faster still.The conversation also covers Cognichip's differentiation from agentic workflow competitors, the fundamental reason why physics-informed models are necessary for semiconductor design in a way they are not for software, and — at the very end — the IPO question.What we cover:— Why chip design went from $33M to $200M+ and VC funding collapsed— The engineer shortage and why semiconductors lose to software for talent— Why the 6-year chip design lag is a fundamental problem for AI progress— EDA companies and AI — complementary rather than competitive— How Cognichip trains models without using customer IP— Physics-informed AI vs. generic LLMs — why the distinction matters— The vision: anyone can design a chip — what that actually means— What happens when design timelines collapse — impact on Nvidia, startups, foundries— Cognichip vs. agentic workflow competitors — the fundamental model difference— Hyperscaler ASIC strategies and CapEx implications— Manufacturing yield improvement and AI's role— The IPO questionDisclosure: Cognichip is a private company and is not publicly investable at this time. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →Lumentum: 90% Revenue Growth, a $2 Billion Nvidia Investment, Triple Digits Coming — and the Dilution Story Nobody Is Covering
3w ago00:10:01Tap to summarizeOver a year ago, CSI did a three-part deep dive on co-packaged optics after Nvidia dedicated an entire segment of its GTC keynote to the technology — naming Lumentum and Coherent as the primary beneficiaries. The analysis was right. They did not buy.That mistake is now worth talking about directly.Lumentum just reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue up 90% year over year. Q4 guidance implies triple-digit year-over-year growth. Nvidia made a $2 billion investment in both Lumentum and Coherent, and separately announced a major fiber optic cable manufacturing expansion with Corning. Co-packaged optics products have not even begun shipping in volume yet — that catalyst hits in December 2026. The case for Lumentum continues to build.But this is CSI, and true conviction in a business means covering what could go wrong as well as what is going right. There is a significant dilution story unfolding that every Lumentum shareholder needs to understand before adding to a position.When the stock was trading at roughly one-tenth of its current price, Lumentum raised cash by issuing convertible notes — a type of debt that converts to equity when the stock reaches certain price milestones. The stock has now blown through those milestones. All of that convertible debt is now eligible to convert into stock at terms that are extremely favorable for the debt holders and extremely expensive for existing shareholders. The result: shares outstanding are expected to increase by approximately 20% over the next two quarters. Nick and Kasey explain the full mechanics clearly — why it happened, what it costs, and whether the revenue acceleration can outrun the dilution.Also covered: the Qorvo fab acquisition in North Carolina that adds indium phosphide manufacturing capacity in two to three years, and what operating leverage looks like when a company goes from negative margins to all-time highs in the span of a few quarters.What we cover:— Why CSI did the deep dive on co-packaged optics and still did not buy — the honest lesson— Lumentum fiscal Q3 2026: 90% revenue growth — what drove it and what comes next— Q4 guidance: triple-digit YoY growth before CPO products even ramp— Nvidia's $2B investment in Lumentum and Coherent — the supply chain signal— Nvidia and Corning fiber optic expansion — Nvidia's hands all over the supply chain— Co-packaged optics — the December 2026 catalyst that has not landed yet— Operating leverage in action: from negative margins to all-time highs— Convertible notes explained: why ~20% share dilution is coming in 2026— Qorvo North Carolina fab acquisition — InP capacity coming in two to three years— The bottleneck in laser module manufacturing and why Lumentum dominates itSponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Lumentum and Coherent. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →AMD vs. Intel Data Center Market Share in 2026 — Plus Lattice Semiconductor Is Quietly Back at Record Revenues
4w ago00:08:56Tap to summarizeIntel stock is up big over the last year. On the stock price, CSI was wrong — and they are saying so directly.On the business analysis, they are standing firm.AMD is steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel. The driver is availability — both companies rely on TSMC for their most advanced chiplets, but AMD has used that availability more effectively in a CPU shortage environment where demand is outpacing supply. After AMD's most recent earnings, the trajectory is clear: if things continue, AMD could pass Intel in data center and AI revenue as early as late 2026 or sometime in 2027.Intel's client segment — the portion of the business keeping the lights on — continues to face market share pressure from AMD. The turnaround story is real and the early innings are genuinely encouraging. But Intel at 104x forward earnings needs everything to go right, and a lot still needs to go right. AMD at 48x, with cleaner data center momentum and a more consistent growth trajectory, remains the cleaner pick — even after being wrong on Intel's stock price.This episode also covers two important supporting stories. Lattice Semiconductor is quietly back — up 42% in its most recent quarter, with record revenues possible as early as Q2 2026, and an AMI software acquisition adding roughly $1 billion in annualized revenue by year end. And AMD's embedded FPGA segment, inherited from the Xilinx acquisition, remains a highly profitable cushion even through its current growth trough.The close leaves listeners with one more thing to watch: the Vera CPU, coming later in 2026.What we cover:— Why CSI was wrong on Intel's stock price — and why the business analysis still holds— AMD vs. Intel data center CPU market share — the trajectory and what drives it— The CPU shortage and AMD's TSMC availability advantage— Intel client segment — profitable, but losing ground quarter by quarter— Intel at 104x forward P/E vs. AMD at 48x — what each multiple actually implies— Lattice Semiconductor: +42% quarterly, record revenues in sight for Q2 2026— Lattice AMI acquisition — $1B annualized revenue run rate by year end— AMD Embedded (Xilinx): profitable through the trough, modest growth returning— Intel Altera FPGA — now 51% private equity, no longer in the income statement— The Vera CPU — a teaser worth watching as 2026 developsSponsored by fiscal.ai — 25% off any paid plan through May 14 only. Use our link: fiscal.ai/csiDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in AMD. They do not currently hold Intel. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →First Solar: The Cheapest Semiconductor Stock Nobody Is Watching — Value Opportunity or Value Trap?
4w ago00:15:07Tap to summarizeAlmost nothing in semiconductor land is cheap right now. First Solar might be the exception — and that is worth paying attention to, even if you have never thought of a solar panel manufacturer as a chip stock.First Solar trades at 12.7x forward earnings and 12.7x forward free cash flow. It carries over $2.4 billion in cash with almost no debt. It just reported record Q1 2026 revenue of just over $1 billion, up 24% year over year, with expanding profit margins. It manufactures domestically in five US facilities — a sixth is under construction in South Carolina. It benefits from Inflation Reduction Act tax credits through 2029. And it has just launched a new manufacturing process called CuRe — copper replacement — that increases panel lifetime energy yield by up to 8% and extends panel lifespan.Everything checks out. Until you look at the guidance and the backlog.Full year 2026 revenue is expected to come in flat to slightly down versus 2025. The order backlog, which peaked above 70 gigawatts in 2023, has now declined to under 48 gigawatts. First Solar is working through existing orders faster than it is winning new ones. A sizable cancellation from customer LightSource BP in 2024 and 2025 accelerated that decline. These are the hallmarks of a value trap — a stock that looks cheap because the future earning power is genuinely uncertain, not because the market has mispriced it.The potential inflection point is a pending Section 232 investigation into whether crystalline silicon solar panel imports — primarily from China, where state-subsidized price dumping has been a recurring competitive tactic — constitute a national security risk. If the ruling lands in Q2 2026 and tariff protections follow, First Solar's order book could refill rapidly. If it does not, the backlog decline continues and the cheap valuation has every reason to stay cheap.CSI walks through the full picture: the thin-film cadmium telluride technology edge, the CuRe manufacturing upgrade, the domestic supply chain advantage, the backlog reality, and a reverse DCF that shows the bar First Solar needs to clear is genuinely low — only 7% annual profit growth over five years with a 0% terminal rate gets you to today's price. The conclusion is honest: mildly interested, but the hallmarks of a value trap are present. Patience is the strategy.What we cover:— Why a solar company qualifies as a chip stock — and where First Solar fits in the supply chain— First Solar Q1 2026: $1B+ revenue, record margins, $2.4B cash, minimal debt— Thin-film cadmium telluride vs. crystalline silicon — the technology difference that matters— The CURE manufacturing process: launching now in Ohio, targeted across all facilities— Domestic US manufacturing as a competitive and geopolitical advantage— The guidance problem: flat to down revenue in 2026— The backlog decline: from 70GW in 2023 to under 48GW and still falling— Section 232 tariff investigation — the binary catalyst expected Q2 2026— Reverse DCF: 12.7x earnings, 7% growth, 0% terminal rate— CSI verdict: mildly interested, but patient — the value trap signs are realDisclosure: Nick and Kasey do not currently hold First Solar. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
Transcribe →Prediction Markets Are Going Mainstream — Wall Street Is Already In, and Robinhood vs. Interactive Brokers Is the Trade
4w ago00:09:02Tap to summarizePrediction markets have been easy to dismiss as a gambling product dressed up in financial language. That became harder to do when Intercontinental Exchange — the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange — quietly took a 25% stake in Polymarket. And when Robinhood partnered with Susquehanna to acquire a MIAX exchange platform that is already regulated and cleared specifically for prediction markets trading.The finance industry has a long habit of showing up wherever money is moving and taking a cut. It is showing up here now. The question for investors is not whether prediction markets will become a legitimate financial product — Nick and Kasey think that trajectory is clear. The question is which publicly traded companies are best positioned to benefit, and how to think about the difference between a short-term hype cycle and a genuine secular growth theme.In this episode, CSI steps outside its core semiconductor focus to cover the full prediction markets landscape and compare Robinhood and Interactive Brokers head-to-head on their Q1 2026 earnings — because the way those two businesses generate revenue tells you almost everything you need to know about which one is built for the long run.Robinhood reported $1 billion in revenue, up 15% year over year, with EPS up just 3% — slower than investors expected. The stock dipped on the report. But the MIAX acquisition is genuinely interesting: a regulated, cleared prediction markets exchange that could morph from a retail gambling product into a professional risk management tool for investors hedging real portfolio exposure against real-world outcomes.Interactive Brokers reported $1.68 billion in revenue, up 17% year over year, across 4.75 million accounts. The revenue chart tells a different story — smooth, consistent, institutional. Net interest income has grown to exceed transaction revenue over the past decade. ForecastEx, their prediction markets product, launched in 2024 and is already aimed at professional investors rather than retail gamblers.The comparison matters. One business is built around hype cycles and transaction spikes. The other is built around compounding institutional trust. Both are in prediction markets now. Only one of them looks like Interactive Brokers fifteen years from now.What we cover:— The prediction markets landscape: Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, CBOE, NASDAQ, ICE— ICE owns 25% of Polymarket — what institutional validation means for the industry— Robinhood Q1 2026: $1B revenue, EPS +3% — the MIAX acquisition explained— Why prediction markets become risk management tools, not just gambling— Interactive Brokers Q1 2026: $1.68B revenue, smooth institutional revenue model— HOOD vs. IBKR: boom-bust vs. compounding — what the revenue charts actually show— The finance flywheel: why Wall Street always finds a way to monetize a new cycle— Our current positions and how we're thinking about this as a portfolio diversification playDisclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in Robinhood. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.chipstockinvestor.com
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