Podcast
Chip Stock Investor Podcast
Hosted by Nicholas Rossolillo; Kasey Rossolillo · EN
Semiconductors are the heart of the modern economy. These small devices that manipulate the flow of electricity run everything from our PCs and smartphones to our cars to manufacturing. The semiconductor industry is at an inflection point of renewed growth, powering new movements like generative AI and electric vehicles.
The Chip Stock Investor Podcast explores how semiconductors work, and especially the business of chips. Follow Nicholas and Kasey to learn how chip technology has become the engine of the world, and how to invest in its growth.
67episodes
Episodes
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Memory & Optical Stocks Up 100%+ in 2026: Why We're Not Selling (Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Lumentum)
3w ago00:11:28Tap to summarizeMemory and optical semiconductor stocks have been the standout trade of 2026, with holdings like Micron, SK Hynix, and SanDisk up well over 100% year-to-date on tight supply and rising pricing. In this mid-year portfolio review, we break down six months of real performance across our memory holdings (Micron, SK Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate, NVE Corp, GSI Technology) and optical networking positions (Lumentum, Coherent, Applied Optoelectronics, Broadcom, Viavi Networks), explain why we're maintaining our allocation despite outsized gains, and walk through the risk management conversation every investor should be having right now.We also dig into the looming supply-side risk from CXMT's IPO in China, how the "Fab Five" equipment makers (ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, KLA) and Chinese players like ACM Research fit into the memory cycle, and why Lumentum and Coherent remain our top optical picks for the second half of 2026, backed by NVIDIA's direct investment in both companies. This is a research-backed, data-driven portfolio update built for long-term fundamental semiconductor investors — not stock picking hype.Join Semi Insider for full access to our research platform and tools at https://chipstockinvestor.com. Get 15% off your membership with our data partner Fiscal.ai: https://fiscal.ai/csi.Content is for general information and entertainment only and is not investment advice. CSI owns shares of the companies discussed.
Transcribe →Cybersecurity & Capital Allocation: Is Rubrik (RBRK) a Buy?
3w ago00:10:47Tap to summarizeRubrik (RBRK) stock is down near $70 after peaking above $89 — but its subscription ARR is still growing over 30%. Here's the reverse DCF and margin math behind why the recovery has stalled.Rubrik (NYSE: RBRK) is one of the smaller names in the cybersecurity sector, operating in the data storage and backup security niche — a category distinct from network security players like Palo Alto Networks and Fortinet, or endpoint security leaders like CrowdStrike. In this excerpt from our Semiconductor Insider Live session, Nick and Kasey Rossolillo break down why Rubrik has lagged the broader cybersecurity recovery even as subscription ARR growth stays above 30% and reported revenue grows nearly 40% year-over-year.We dig into the free cash flow story to explain why it has stalled sequentially even as it grows year-over-year. We also explore what that margin compression means for a smaller, AI-infrastructure-dependent company, and how Rubrik's balance sheet ($1.7B cash vs. $1.1B long-term debt) holds up. Finally, we run a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to see what growth assumptions are baked into the current stock price and discuss how small and mid-cap software stocks fit into a diversified, long-term portfolio strategy.This is educational content for self-directed investors evaluating semiconductor-adjacent software and cybersecurity plays in 2026.Join Semi Insider: Get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens at chipstockinvestor.comSpecial Discount: Get 15% off your membership with our special link: fiscal.ai/csiRelated Episode: We called this back in June — Listen/Watch hereIf you found this episode useful, please make sure to follow the podcast and leave us a rating! Let us know in the Spotify Q&A below: Do you think Rubrik's margin compression is temporary, or a longer-term concern?Content in this podcast is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Rubrik.
Transcribe →Micron's $100 Billion Backlog: Are Take-or-Pay Agreements Changing the Memory Cycle?
3w ago00:17:16Tap to summarizeThe memory chip industry has historically been plagued by vicious boom-and-bust cycles, but Micron is taking aggressive steps to rewrite the rules. In this episode of Chip Stock Investor, we discuss Strategic Customer Agreements (SCAs). We break down the "take-or-pay" contracts, explaining how they protect Micron from the sudden order cancellations and double-booking panics that burned the industry in 2022 and 2023. With competitors like Samsung and SK hynix also completely sold out of capacity, Micron is actively leveraging its position to lock in upfront cash deposits and secure its long-term financial runway. The Take-or-Pay Mechanism: How Micron's new agreements force customers to either take delivery of the product or pay a pre-agreed minimum cancellation charge to protect Micron's bottom line. A $100 Billion Backlog: Exploring the massive pipeline generated by these SCAs, which are expected to make up about 40% of Micron's total revenue over the next five years. Locked-In Terms: A detailed look at the five-year contracts for hyperscalers (running from calendar 2026 through 2030) and three-year contract terms for automotive customers. Pricing Safeguards: How these contracts are structured using floor prices, ceiling prices for existing products, and fixed rates to stabilize revenue against market volatility. $22 Billion in Upfront Cash: Why tech giants and hyperscalers are depositing billions directly onto Micron's balance sheet to guarantee their spot in line for memory chips. The Albemarle Blueprint: What Albemarle's long-term lithium contracts can teach us about how Micron's SCAs might help them weather future oversupply environments and market downcycles. Resources Mentioned:For a growing library of tools for your analysis of semiconductor companies, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Don't forget to hit follow on Spotify so you never miss an episode!
Transcribe →AppLovin Stock: Is It Time to Buy the Dip?
4w ago00:12:57Tap to summarizeAppLovin stock posted 59% revenue growth and a 70% free cash flow margin in Q1 2026—numbers that look more like cheat codes than a real business. We break down what makes the Axon 2.0 machine learning ad engine so efficient, why AppLovin can scale without a traditional sales force, and how targeted digital advertising has become the clearest ROI story in AI so far.We also walk through management's 10-year growth roadmap—from mobile gaming to consumer, e-commerce, and connected TV—and what has to be true for AppLovin to reach $70 billion in annual revenue. Then we run both a five-year and ten-year reverse DCF to show exactly what growth rate is already baked into the current stock price, and whether buying the dip today makes sense for long-term investors. Plus, how they're deploying $1.3 billion in quarterly free cash flow, including nearly $1 billion in share buybacks in Q1 alone.Want real-time portfolio access and deeper coverage on high-growth software and semiconductor stocks? Join Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.com.Run your own AppLovin research with AI-powered financial tools at fiscal.ai/csi — 15% off any paid plan.Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of AppLovin.
Transcribe →AI Data Center Supply Chains & Indium Phosphide: A Look at Oxford Instruments
4w ago00:14:55Tap to summarizeIn this episode, CSI is cutting through the social media noise to bring you a vintage Chip Stock Investor breakdown of the semiconductor supply chain. Today, we are putting the spotlight on Oxford Instruments, a small-cap UK company that might be a critical bottleneck in the AI data center networking boom. We explore how the industry is scaling up production for compound semiconductors and specifically look at Coherent's breakthrough with six-inch indium phosphide (InP) wafers. From there, we map out the players making this transition possible and detail why Oxford Instruments' plasma deposition and etch systems are moving out of the R&D lab and onto the commercial manufacturing floor. Episode Chapters & Key Takeaways:The Indium Phosphide Breakthrough: The industry has long been stuck at two- to four-inch wafers due to manufacturing defects, but Coherent has successfully transitioned to six-inch InP wafers. Mapping the Supply Chain: A breakdown of the companies involved in this ecosystem, including Sumitomo Electric for substrates, KLA Corp and Onto Innovation for inspection, and Applied Materials for deposition. Oxford Instruments' Critical Role: Oxford Instruments supplies the plasma deposition and etch technology used by Coherent to create features like laser sources and waveguides. A Shift to Commercial Scale: Historically an R&D business spun out of Oxford University, the company is now seeing its advanced technologies group transition into early-stage commercial production. Strategic Divestitures: Oxford Instruments recently sold its quantum computing and cryogenics segment to Quantum Design to focus heavily on AI data centers and compound semiconductors. Financials & Valuation: Despite recent headwinds like tariffs and US R&D funding delays, the company holds a clean balance sheet and is expecting a return to growth in fiscal 2027. Special thanks to our sponsor, fiscal.ai! Get 15% off any paid plan using our special link: fiscal.ai/csi. Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI doesn't own shares of Oxford Instruments.
Transcribe →SpaceX IPO, Orbital Data Centers & Investing in Quantum Computing | CSI with Simon Erickson of 7investing
4w ago00:31:54Tap to summarizeIn this episode of CSI Live, Nick sits down with Simon Erickson from 7investing to unpack the latest breakthroughs in high-tech infrastructure. The conversation kicks off with a look at the massive SpaceX IPO and the ambitious potential for building orbital data centers. From there, the discussion shifts to the primary focus: the rapidly evolving world of quantum computing. Simon breaks down how quantum mechanics could solve incredibly complex problems simultaneously, highlighting the projected $1.3 trillion to $2.7 trillion in economic value the industry could deliver by 2035. The episode covers specific pure-play quantum companies, including IonQ's commercial revenue lead and recent SkyWater acquisition, Infleqtion's neutral atom technology, and Quantinuum's full-stack approach under the Honeywell umbrella. Finally, they detail practical portfolio allocation strategies for early-stage tech and explore the looming national security concerns that could heavily regulate the sector. Check out Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.comContent in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.CSI owns shares of Honeywell and Quantinuum.
Transcribe →Micron Passed 4 of 5 — Here's the One That Didn't
Jun 1900:05:48Tap to summarizeMicron stock gets the full Chip Stock Investor checklist treatment in this Semi Insider Live session. We walk through revenue trends, operating margin, free cash flow, per-share profit growth, and balance sheet strength—then compare Micron's net-cash position to Broadcom's debt-heavy structure to show how to evaluate leverage using debt-to-equity and EBITDA-to-interest coverage ratios.This is Part 3 of our How CSI Invests series, where we break down the exact quantitative framework we use to vet semiconductor and tech stocks before they earn a spot in our portfolio. We also revisit why "we missed the takeoff" criticism misses the point of disciplined investing—and why Micron's revenue consistency is still an open question over a full cycle.Want the full investment thesis checklist, real-time portfolio access, and deeper coverage like this? Join Semi Insider at chipstockinvestor.com.
Transcribe →NextPower (NXT) Stock Analysis: Solar Tracking Expansion and Valuation Data
Jun 1800:09:55Tap to summarizeIn this episode of Chip Stock Investor, Nick and Kasey analyze NextPower (formerly Nextracker), evaluating its transition from specialized solar tracking to broader power generation and distribution. The discussion breaks down NextPower's recent acquisitions in power converters, battery electric storage systems (BESS), and industrial maintenance robotics. We also examine the macro environment impacting the solar market, including international competition from Chinese firms like Architec and Trina Solar, as well as domestic policy deadlines approaching on July 4, 2026. Key Topics Covered:Business Evolution: NextPower's growth from a Flex spin-off into an integrated solar technology provider facing patent litigation with GameChange Solar. Financial Outlook: An analysis of the fiscal year 2027 revenue guidance of $3.8 billion to $4 billion, and why profitability may see a near-term dip during this investment year. Data-Driven Valuation: A walkthrough of NextPower using the Reverse DCF Calculator, demonstrating a discounted fair value of approximately $80, compared to its current trading price near $120. Sector Alternatives: Why Amphenol remains our preferred choice for broad exposure to solar tracking hardware, power conversion, and battery assemblies. New Feature AnnouncementThis episode demonstrates the newly implemented price alert functionality on the Reverse DCF Calculator. Available on the Semi Insider research dashboard, this tool allows you to build a margin of safety and receive automated alerts driven by fundamental data, not chart drawing. For data-driven research, weekly blog articles, our free weekly newsletter, and full access to the Semi Insider toolset, visit chipstockinvestor.com.
Transcribe →Figma Q1 Earnings: Revenue Soars 46%, Stock Still Pricey
Jun 1600:12:08Tap to summarizeFigma's Q1 2026 revenue grew 46% YoY to $333M, with net dollar retention hitting a multi-year high of 139%. But even after its post-IPO slide, the stock still trades at ~75x next-12-month free cash flow. We break down what's driving the valuation gap, why free cash flow per share is still feeling IPO dilution effects, and what Figma needs to prove on profitability as AI disruption looms over creative software.Topics covered:Why Figma's valuation is still rich despite the stock's declineFigma vs. Adobe, Microsoft, Wix, and the private design-tool fieldAI's disruption risk to creative/design softwareQ1 2026 results: $333M revenue, 139% net dollar retention, $89M free cash flow (27% margin)Free cash flow per share and the impact of IPO-related dilution$1.6B cash, no debt, and why M&A could be on the tableThe $116M RSU tax settlement behind the cash balance dipQ2 and full-year 2026 guidance (40% and 35% YoY growth)This episode is sponsored by fiscal.ai — get 15% off any paid plan at fiscal.ai/csi.Liked this breakdown? Head to chipstockinvestor.com for our full library of semiconductor and tech stock research, deep dives, and analysis — plus access to Semi Insider, our premium subscription for investors who want the data behind every call we make.
Transcribe →Cyclical vs. Non-Cyclical Stocks Explained: The CSI Investment Framework
Jun 1200:21:39Tap to summarizeIs memory truly cyclical, or has the AI data center boom changed the rules? In Part 2 of the How CSI Invests series, Nick and Kasey tackle one of the most debated questions among semiconductor investors by walking through the investment thesis checklist step that asks: what kind of business cycle does this company actually have?Rather than labeling companies simply cyclical or non-cyclical, the framework breaks businesses into short cycle, long cycle, and non-cyclical categories based on how closely revenue tracks changes in GDP growth. A short cycle business sees revenue move quickly with the economy, while a long cycle or non-cyclical business continues growing steadily regardless of macro conditions. The traditional eleven sectors of the economy do not map cleanly onto this framework, and Nick and Kasey explain why semiconductors, SaaS, telecom carriers, and ad-driven internet platforms can all fall in very different places even within the same official sector.The episode applies this framework to six real companies. Micron is examined as a short cycle business currently in year two of a strong memory upcycle, with historical precedent for these cycles to run several years. Intuitive Surgical is discussed as a long cycle healthcare hardware business tied to product generation launches. Vertex Pharmaceuticals is presented as a genuinely non-cyclical pharmaceutical company with steady growth. NextEra Energy represents the utilities sector and one of the longest cycles of all. Credo Technologies, a newer public company, is evaluated as likely short cycle, with a look at its fiscal 2027 guidance calling for eighty percent revenue growth and fifty percent adjusted profit margins. Finally, Palo Alto Networks is broken down as a cyclical business once acquisitions like CyberArk and Chronosphere are stripped out, with commentary on CEO Nikesh Arora's view that cybersecurity is constantly chasing the next emerging risk.The episode closes with the revenue analysis questions CSI uses for every company: who the primary customers are, whether revenue is concentrated, what is actually being monetized, why customers choose to spend money with that company over alternatives, and what risks could disrupt the business. Understanding these fundamentals is what allows an investor to tune out noisy debates about whether a cycle has "changed forever" and instead build real conviction in a business.For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership,visit chipstockinvestor.com.
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