Chit Chat Stocks – 2026 Stock Market Predictions
Episode Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schaefer
Overview
In this annual episode, Ryan and Brett review their 2025 stock market predictions, dissect their portfolio performances, examine hits and misses, and then unleash their bold (and often humble) forecasts for 2026. True to their candid, self-deprecating tone, the hosts underscore the value of long-term thinking over brash, short-term calls—reminding listeners that predictions are “just a fun exercise” and no basis for actual trading.
Portfolio Reviews: 2025 in Hindsight
Ryan’s 2025 Portfolio
- Money-weighted return: 24.7%, beating the S&P 500.
- Biggest winner: Alphabet (Google)—doubled from cost basis, attributed to buying when big tech traded at mid-teens forward EBIT multiples.
- Key takeaway: Keep a “strike zone list” of quality companies. Buy when forward multiples drop to attractive levels.
- “When looking at big tech, if it's mid-teens forward EBIT multiple, you're probably going to do fairly well.” (03:51)
- Biggest loser: Remitly (still considered attractive for future growth).
- Second-best performer: Coupang, though it saw a late drawdown.
- Mistakes: Upset about not sizing up Taiwan Semiconductor, which performed well. Also missed some big winners among “small cap of the week” picks.
- “I wish I sized [Taiwan Semiconductor] up more than I did because it’s been a good performer since.” (11:21)
Brett’s 2025 Portfolio
- Money-weighted return: ~11%, slightly lagging the S&P 500.
- Top three performers (percent basis): Airbnb, Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Grupo Omab (Mexican airport operator).
- Largest dollar contributor: Nelnet (at times 20% of portfolio).
- “The fact I sized [Nelnet] up and was correct about it, at least so far, I’m pretty happy with.” (12:11)
- Laggards: Remitly—mistake was adding when momentum was hot (above $20/share), despite knowing operating leverage would stall.
- Shorts and Hedges: Small percentage of portfolio in short positions (notably Palantir, Tesla, Apple) and long-term treasury bonds as a hedge.
- “I believe all of these are still fantastic counterweights in the portfolio… Even if it dragged a bit on returns in 2025, it didn’t kill the overall portfolio.” (14:21)
Shared Reflections
- Both regret missing or not maximizing size in certain big winners.
- Remitly, despite being a drag, remains a high-conviction position for both.
2025 Prediction Review
[28:00] – [49:24]
What They Got Right
- Ryan: Predicted “Magnificent Seven” (Mag7) equal-weighted would be up over 12%—actual was 24% (led by Google and Tesla).
- “It wasn’t that bold, but the Magnificent 7 will be up more than 12%. That proved correct.” (20:20)
Notable Misses & Humble Pies
- Brett: Amazon would be world’s largest market cap by year-end—“Completely wrong.”
- “They completely stalled their operating margin expansion.” (21:16)
- Ryan: Palantir would get “cut in half”—Stock finished up 157% (!)
- “The stock finished up 157% in 2025 so far… As crazy as I thought the multiple was then, it’s doubled.” (24:23)
- Brett: Nintendo ADR would double—peaked near $25, but finished below $17.
- Ryan: Google would top world rankings—got closer, but remains at #3 behind Nvidia and Apple.
- “Directionally correct… could re-up this for 2026.” (30:47)
Palantir “Zone” Discourse
- Brett: Coins the “Palantir zone”—stocks trading at 50–100x sales.
- “When a stock hits that 50–100 times sales range, I want to call it the Palantir zone.” (25:14)
- Shared skepticism that such multiples can persist without sharp crashes.
Bold 2026 Predictions
Brett’s 2026 Predictions
- AI Spending Bubble, but Nuclear/EVTOL/Quantum “Mini-Bubbles” Collapse
- AI capex by the “Big Four” remains strong, but story stocks in nuclear, EVTOL, and quantum crash (>80% decline).
- “The AI boom continues. However the mini bubbles in nuclear, evtol and quantum stocks collapse.” (33:52)
- References shorts: Oklo, Nanonuclear, Archer, Joby, Rigetti, IonQ.
- AI capex to beat 2025—Ryan agrees, but skeptical about CapEx guidance surprises.
- E-Commerce Winners
- Amazon, MercadoLibre, and Coupang to post 20%+ average gains, or outperform S&P 500/NASDAQ by 10%.
- “I think Ecommerce, strong performance in 2026… Amazon, Mercado Libre, Coupang will beat the broad market.” (45:21)
- SpaceX IPO = Market Top; Rocket Lab Crash
- If SpaceX goes public, the space bubble peaks, and Rocket Lab falls >80%.
- “SpaceX IPO marks the end of the bull market… Rocket Lab goes through a blow-off top, then falls 80%, just like Rivian in 2021.” (51:15)
Ryan’s 2026 Predictions
- Mag7 Will Decline
- After a strong 2025, the Mag7 equal-weighted return will be negative.
- “Most of them feel richly valued… This feels like a recipe for multiple compression.” (41:06)
- SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) Resurgence
- Equal-weighted Adobe, Monday.com, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Dassault Systèmes, Constellation Software up 20%+.
- “My focus here is B2B software stocks that are down 15% or more and are seen as ‘AI losers.’” (47:42)
- Nvidia Will Fall >15%
- Despite love for the company, market sentiment and hints of slowing capex/new competition point to a major correction.
- “I’m not pessimistic about Nvidia per se… but management seems desperate to keep a positive narrative.” (53:59)
- “What gets me is… when a big customer drags their feet… and all of a sudden your revenue growth is a little slower that one quarter—when it’s priced for perfection, you gotta be perfect.” (28:16)
Key Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On chasing big tech at low multiples:
“Big tech in the mid-teens has historically been a safe play.” (09:03, Ryan) - On Palantir valuation:
“Palantir’s entered the Palantir zone and it is expanding the definition of what a growth stock can trade at because 100 times sales, man, it’s crazy.” (25:14, Brett) - On sizing and conviction:
“I need to be very confident in my top four or five positions…” (16:36, Ryan) - On humility and forecasting:
“You look at [the predictions], you go, I have a lot of confidence… but it always turns out we get more than half of these wrong...” (57:45, Brett) - On SaaS revival:
“The narrative that demand is going to disappear because of AI for a lot of these I think is overblown.” (49:50, Ryan)
Advice, Reflections & 2026 Goals
Going Deep, Not Wide:
- Study selected businesses in-depth—“Become an expert on 10 new ones.” (62:50, Brett)
- “It’s a lot better…to go really deep on a few businesses and understand really what are the drivers…” (64:40, Ryan)
International Diversification:
- Both plan to increase non-US stock exposure.
- “I would like to increase my international exposure. I think there’s a lot of opportunities beyond the United States at the moment.” (65:28, Ryan)
Long-Term Mindset:
- Reminder: Most portfolio damage comes from mistakes in top positions, not missing lottery wins among small, speculative bets.
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Portfolio Reviews & Lessons Learned: 02:31–18:29
- 2025 Predictions Review: 19:44–32:51
- 2026 Bold Predictions: 32:51–59:10
- Listener Q&A / 2026 Goals: 61:11–66:56
Tone & Approach
Ryan and Brett’s signature style blends self-awareness, humility, and practical, research-driven investing. They’re quick to disclose misfires as much as victories, and remain skeptically optimistic about the market—a stance valuable for every long-term investor.
Final Takeaway
Ryan:
“There is some pessimism in some of our predictions. That doesn't mean there aren't opportunities out there. Keep digging, keep researching companies. There's plenty out there.” (66:56)
Brett:
“We usually try to invest optimistically, but maybe just with some cynical mindset given all the fraud that is out there in the stock market and some tough, tough valuations today.” (67:14)
Nothing herein is investment advice; always do your own research.