Chit Chat Stocks – Episode Summary

Episode: 6 Growth Stocks That Just Turned Profitable; Brett’s Hot Buffett Take; Latest Super Investor Buys: Plus, We Have a New Chamath SPAC
Date: August 22, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer

Overview

This episode is a classic “Power Hour” from the Chit Chat Stocks team, covering a wide range of current events, investing hot topics, and some spirited perspectives. Major themes include:

• The debate over government intervention in Intel’s revival
• A live Zoom earnings breakdown and valuation discussion
• Super investor 13F filings, including Brett’s “hot Buffett take”
• The ongoing saga of Chamath’s SPACs and their dubious track records
• The wave of AI hype versus recent disappointments
• Six growth stocks recently turning profitable
• Macro retail data and consumer spending trends

Nationalization of Intel & Government Intervention

[01:47–09:51]

Key Points

• Intel’s Situation: News that the Trump administration may convert CHIPS Act grants into a 10% government equity stake in Intel. SoftBank also invested $2 billion in Intel this week.
• Is Government Ownership Smart? Brett is skeptical: “In a vacuum, no… they need the money. They probably need some fixed rate debt at 6%... but you want more than just Taiwan Semiconductor.” [03:22]
• Government should fund semis, but not seek equity – it’s about national security and supply chain, not shareholder return.
• “If the US wants to build a Sovereign wealth fund and buy public equities that I don’t think that’s helping anybody, frankly.” – Ryan [07:38]
• Learning from History: Brett draws a comparison to the Boeing bailout, arguing there would have been sufficient investor appetite at the right price and existing shareholders should absorb risk.

Notable Quote

• Brett: “Let’s just not try to bail this out to further shareholders. They took the risk. Investing in Intel’s been a really bad proposition. Let’s try to get this business on the right footing… a hundred percent. We can’t just go, oh well, let’s give them $5 billion and see what happens. That’s not nearly enough. You need probably a hundred billion dollars, if not more.” [08:33]

Zoom Earnings Live Review & Growth Stock Valuations

[10:01–15:36]

Key Points

• Zoom’s Latest Results:

  • Revenue +4.7%
  • Enterprise revenue +7.7%
  • GAAP op margin 26%; non-GAAP op margin 41%
  • 9% YOY increase in $100K+ customers

• Concerns:

  • Net dollar expansion rate for enterprise customers at 98% for 4 quarters – implies some churn.
  • “Covid may have actually hurt this business in the long run… huge surge in competition.” – Ryan [12:46]

• Valuation History:

  • EV/gross profit was 59x in 2021, now 4x. EV/EBIT is 15x today.
  • “Multiple compression got them pretty good… Covid honestly ruined their chances of being a home run.” – Ryan [15:02, 15:17]

13F Season: Super Investor Buys & Brett’s “Hot Buffett Take”

[15:36–40:50]

General Themes

• 13Fs only show US-listed holdings, are often stale (45+ days after quarter end), and may reflect deputies’ trades, not the “star” manager directly.

Spotlighted Buys & Funds

• Norbert Lou (Punch Card Capital)

  • Added PayPal and Crocs.
  • Known for extreme selectivity (“waited 20 years to watch pitches go by and these are the two stocks you buy?”) [19:12]
  • Attributed to the “punch card” mentality — few, big conviction bets.
  • PayPal’s branded checkout is in decline; Crocs surprisingly booming in China.

• Chuck Akre

  • New positions in Copart and FICO; fits their “high ROIC” quality business model, though some argue these are pricey.
  • Akre retired; fund now managed by John Neff and team.

• Dennis Hong (ShawSpring Partners)

  • Major new stake in Okta, noted for finally turning solidly profitable.
  • Ryan: “This is like the last thing you want to switch. It’s so sticky.” [30:52]
  • Okta has moved from -25% to slightly positive net margins.

• Li Lu

  • Sold most of Apple, added Pinduoduo, now his 3rd largest US holding.

• Bill Ackman

  • Amazon is now 10% of portfolio, plus lots of Big Tech. Brett: “I just can’t imagine that he crushes the index from here.” [33:54]

• Warren Buffett / Berkshire

  • Big new stake in United Health.
  • Brett’s controversial take: “I don’t care what Buffett buys or sells. The man is 95… he may not even have made this purchase.” [35:45]
  • Debate over Buffett’s ongoing involvement and cognitive ability. Ryan: “I wouldn’t totally be dismissive… He still has a super team around him and more experience with insurance than probably anyone living.” [37:20]

Notable Quotes

• Brett: “I had people saying I look older than Warren Buffett, and also people saying I look like a child… people said …I had worse hair than Buffett, which is a big insult.” [34:58]
• Ryan: “I’ve never just looked at a portfolio and thought, okay, he owns it, I’ll own it. You don’t know why. You don’t know when he bought. You don’t know whether or not he’s trying to get out.” [40:03]

Bubble Watch: Chamath Launches another SPAC & AI Hype

[42:08–53:08]

Chamath’s New SPAC: "American Exceptionalism Acquisition Corp"

• History of disastrous results from past SPACs: OpenDoor -65%, Clover Health -74%, Virgin Galactic -99%, etc ([43:10])

• Only one previous “winner,” MP Materials (+72%).

• “If you lose money on this, you deserve it. Honestly, like, don’t…” – Ryan [43:49]

• Brett’s frustration: “What grinds my gears with Chamath is how confident he is in the face of clearly being a snake oil salesman… you are misleading people into basically taking a cut off of their funds.” [45:16]

AI Disappointment & Paradigm Debate

• ChatGPT5 called underwhelming: “Could you look back in three years and say, hey, this was the time when people started to get more rational about this market? Maybe.” – Brett [47:56]
• Altman’s quote: “The models have already saturated the chat use case… They’re not going to get much better and maybe they’re going to get worse.” [50:15]
• Data quality concerns: “40% of the sourcing for Chat GPT results are Reddit posts.” [51:36]
• Still, both hosts emphasize long-term optimism for AI’s impact on margins and business models, especially in advertising and operational efficiency.

Six Growth Stocks that Just Turned Profitable

[54:56–61:37]

• Investment thesis: Stocks often screen “badly” before profitability, masking underlying economics. Opportunity is spotting strong businesses at this inflection.
• “If you can find something that doesn’t screen well, that’s just making that transition from unprofitable to profitable and has great unit economics. There can be hugely underpriced stocks.” – Brett [54:56]

The Six Stocks

1. Okta – Revenue CAGR 33%, huge margin expansion to slight profitability
2. DoorDash
3. Remitly (Hosts own shares; strong customer retention, recurring usage)
4. Toast (Point-of-sale for restaurants, but wary of customer churn)
5. Nutanix
6. TransMedics (Controversial: “I’ve heard pitches that Transmedic is a fraud… there’s some very aggressive shorts.” – Brett [58:30])

Notable Analysis

• These companies have now “turned the corner” to profitability, but the risk is their lifetime value (LTV) assumptions can change quickly if competition increases.
• Okta stands out for its “stickiness” – “Not something you want to replace… if they’re turning the corner to profitability now, I think … sky is the limit potentially here for their margins.” – Ryan [60:36]

Retail Roundup: Macro QSR Trends

[61:37–64:54]

• Home Depot and Lowe’s: Flat to very low growth, foot traffic declining
• Target: Comps sales -1.9%, new CEO shift
• Walmart: Still outpacing everyone with 4.8% comp sales growth (22 consecutive quarters), 25% e-commerce growth
• “Is it just turning into an Amazon, Walmart, Costco retail economy? Because that’s what it feels like.” – Brett [63:09]
• “Walmart generates more membership revenue than Costco.” – Ryan [64:01]

Memorable Quotes & Lighthearted Moments

• “Let’s just not try to bail this out to further shareholders. They took the risk. Investing in Intel’s been a really bad proposition.” – Brett [08:33]
• “Covid may have actually hurt [Zoom] in the long run.” – Ryan [12:46]
• “If you lose money on [Chamath’s SPACs], you deserve it.” – Ryan [43:49]
• “What grinds my gears with Chamath is how confident he is in the face of clearly being a snake oil salesman.” – Brett [45:16]
• “AI will basically hack your brain into spending money… They are so good at it now you’re not even going to realize.” – Brett [53:46]

Takeaways

• Intel needs capital, not nationalization; government involvement is questionable.
• 13F filings are fun but can be misleading; copying super investors can be dangerous unless you understand context and motivations.
• Some long-unprofitable growth stocks (Okta, Remitly, DoorDash) are crossing key thresholds— worth tracking for potential multi-year re-ratings if execution continues.
• Chamath’s track record is a warning to retail investors.
• AI remains a paradigm shift, but hype and disillusionment are both present.
• Retail shows a “flight to scale”—Walmart, Costco, Amazon are increasingly dominant.
• The best new investment opportunities may be in those newly or nearly profitable growth names.

For more detailed data and stock dashboards, the hosts recommend Fiscal AI (with their own affiliate link in the show notes).

(This summary skips ad reads, intros/outros, and sponsorship segments.)