B (26:08)
And one more thing on sprouts farmers market real quick. It is the opposite of Airbnb. There's. It's not consumer discretionary grocery spending is quite resilient even in tough times. So you're get even if you have a recession or a pullback, I think generally you're still going to see people go into the grocery store. But my second stock, you mentioned it, it's. It shockingly has become a battleground stock because I would argue for the better part of the last two decades, it's been considered like a bulletproof compounder. The company is Adobe right now. The narrative around Adobe reminds me, or it feels like the narrative that was surrounding Alphabet in early 2025. Maybe not as stark, but there seems to be a collective belief that Adobe will be disrupted by AI. And it primarily comes from two angles. So the first one is text to image or text to video models, making the need for video and photo editing software obsolete. Adobe's Creative software suite, there's a lot to it if you buy the whole bundle, but a big part of it is video photo editing and some of the workflows around that. So. And the second one I should say is startups, and I shouldn't even call them startups anymore. But most notably Figma and Canva putting a dent in Adobe's Creative software moat. Those are kind of the two risks. One of them is an AI risk. I would say Adobe and Fig, or Figma and Canva. That's not really an AI risk per se, because if the idea is that text to image and text to video obsoletes the need for photo editing, then Figma and Canva would be at risk as well. But let's address the first one. Basically AI obsoleting the need for video and photo editing. I think this is pretty unlikely. You can create some cool stuff with Mid Journey. I've had a Mid Journey subscription for a while and Midjourney for those that don't know, is like you type it in, it puts out the image you want. It's what if you're familiar with quarter the Transcript audio platform on mobile and I guess it's on web as well, they use Midjourney for all their creatives and they do a good job. But it's the first step. I think it gets you 90% of the way there. I think it helps for inspiration and I think it is really useful. But still the Last Mile lives on a video or photo editing tool. I could not create the final product that I wanted on midjourney. Maybe I'm bad at it, but I still had to go use photo editing software. So the last mile still remains an issue. We had this conversation a year ago and it was like AI is going to replace photo editing. But the last mile is currently the problem. We're a year forward now and last mile is still the problem. And I think it's hard to get there. And you probably witnessed this when you watch like an AI video. If you're scrolling your feed and you see an AI video on social media, the moment you perceive like there's something off, right? Like you can tell it's AI somewhat quickly. If you want to go from making people believe that it was completely manually created as a or edited, touched up and not just AI, it takes something beyond just the models themselves. The other part is I don't see this changing for enterprise customers anytime soon. Which is the majority of Adobe's customer base. Just to be clear. Adobe's customer base enterprise. Adobe's revenue base, Enterprise. There is like if you're just a solo creator and you just need something spun up quickly and it's not that controversial, you're not in a marketing department, whatever, maybe you're an admin at a high school or whatever and you want to post an animation for one of your players, you can spin that up with AI, your job's not at risk for that. If you're in the marketing department at an enterprise company, it's different. So I think they're going to be okay. And then, not to mention Adobe is partnered with most AI models, so you can use your preferred model within Firefly if you're choosing to do that. And then you've got all the workflow tools right around it. And they actually are seeing a lot of their customers adopt that. So they're kind of integrating it well, in my opinion. And then as for the second threat, figma and Canva, this is one where I don't really know what to think because I'm a Canva user, I'm a FIGMA user and I think they're both really good tools. So canva, let's take this one first. Canva is an awesome tool. It's great for small businesses, great for solopreneurs. It seems like an easier tool to adopt for someone who's maybe not used to it didn't go to marketing classes in college, whatever. Isn't used to the Adobe suite. It's kind of lower barriers to entry and that's kind of why they've won, at least on the smaller business side of things. They are now a three and a half billion dollar revenue business. So it's big. However, Adobe is still crucial within enterprises. I already mentioned this. They enterprises need the interoperability between Tools and different departments. And a company often relies on multiple Adobe products. So you see this, I saw this basic, I don't know if it was fake or not, but someone was saying his CFO came to him and was like, I need you to audit our subscriptions this year. And survey, survey the survey, all the departments, what software do they use, all that stuff. And he said, no, I'm not surveying it. And he deleted the spreadsheet, canceled the cards. And then he says the first ones that people come to me with, whoever comes complaining the quickest, as soon as people complain, I'll resubscribe. And this might have been fiction, but I think it illustrates a point. And if people don't mention it for three or four months, we don't need that software. He said immediately when he canceled it, the marketing department came running for Adobe, the sales department came running for their CRM and then there was some HR software that no one talked about and they inevitably canceled the subscription. It could have been bs, like this was an anonymous account. But it illustrates a point the you, when you are in a marketing department, you live on this software, you live on Adobe and you get used to it and there's huge switching costs, especially with creative software. I think it's the same with Autodesk, you don't want to retrain on something else. As for Figma, Figma has actually sort of one. I shouldn't say one because Adobe XD still gets used, but it's more of a point solution. So people that don't know Figma, it's sort of a user experience user interface design tool where it really helps go from design to development. So apparently developers really love it. It makes the process much more seamless. And it's a good tool, it's leader in the industry, but it's smaller, it's less than a billion dollars in revenue. And then I was thinking like Canva was founded in 2013, Figma was founded in 2012. What has happened since that point? Well, over the last four years. Just the last four years, not the last decade. Over the last decade, Adobe's doubled its revenue and more. But over the last four years, Adobe has added $6 billion in new digital media revenue. They've added two Canvas in revenue in the last four years. If these were true, like substitutes, they want to add an additional $6 billion in revenue. I know some people are going to say, oh, they're mortgaging their moat, they're raising their prices. That would have hit them. That for sure would have hit them. If There wasn't high switching costs with these products and Canva was a true substitute. They wouldn't have doubled their revenue over the last decade. So the, I guess the problem I have and the problem I run into is I'm a big believer in Canva. I really like the tool. I'm a big believer in Figma, really like the tool. I think they all have promise, but I think the switching costs for Adobe are enormous and right now they traded an EV to EBIT of 17 times, which is basically the lowest in I think since the great financial crisis. I think they had a lower multiple, but I see a path for them to continue to grow. Revenue more than 10% a year. I see a path for operating margins to continue to expand. It seems to me like it's kind of not necessarily a home run, but it's a slam dunk and sort of a one foot hurdle here where you're going to get above market returns and it doesn't feel like you're taking a ton of risk to do it.