Chit Chat Stocks Podcast Power Hour – Detailed Episode Summary

Episode Title: A Venezuelan Shakeup; Top S&P 500 Winners And Losers From 2025; The Return Of Small Cap Of The Week
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (“A”) and Brett Schafer (“B”)
Date: January 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This Power Hour from Chit Chat Stocks offers a wide-ranging discussion of recent global and market events impacting investors, including Venezuela’s geopolitical changes, S&P 500’s biggest winners and losers of 2025, a deep dive into the “small cap of the week,” and updates on defense spending and AI. The hosts, Ryan and Brett, mix in their characteristic banter and audience Q&A, keeping a focus on practical takeaways for investors.

Key Themes & Topics

1. Venezuela’s Political Upheaval and Its Investment Ripple Effects

• [05:20] Audience Q: South American/Mexican investments given Venezuela's situation?
  • Limited Direct Exposure: Most American investors can’t access Venezuelan equities directly.
  • Multinational Exposure: US and LatAm companies (e.g., Colgate, MercadoLibre, Nubank) have historical exposure to Venezuela.
  • Potential Spillover: Regional economies and businesses (airports, financial tech firms) may benefit if Venezuela stabilizes and commerce rebounds.
  • Cautious Optimism: Both hosts agree the “news is certainly more a positive than a negative,” but remain wary of actionable opportunities, highlighting significant uncertainty and required systemic change.
  • Quote – Ryan: “All this feels super speculative. We don’t know what the government’s going to look like.” [14:11]
  • Quote – Brett: “If you can get 50 million more potential customers in a country with a stable economy, yeah, that’s growing your addressable market. But how many years until that happens?” [08:17]
  • Oil Market Angle: US refineries are tailored for Venezuelan heavy crude, so reopening flows could benefit US Gulf Coast refiners like Valero, ConocoPhillips.

2. 2025’s S&P 500 Winners, Losers, and Valuation Extremes

• [16:45] Building the Dashboard:

  • Ryan constructed a full S&P 500 dashboard, noting how surprisingly many companies even seasoned investors don't know.

• [18:06] Top 5 Winners (2025):

  • SanDisk (up 790%); Western Digital; Micron; Seagate (memory stocks); Robinhood (all +200%).
    • “80% of this is memory, right?” [18:06]

• [19:55] Top 5 Losers:

  • The Trade Desk, Fiserv, Gartner, Deckers (HOKA), Lululemon.
    • Deckers and Lululemon: Surprising, given underlying business strength.
    • Gartner: Under pressure but ‘magic quadrant’ recurring consulting business discussed.

• Cycle Analysis:

  • Memory stocks boom/bust nature. Hosts believe 2025 “losers” (especially retail) may outperform memory “winners” in 2026 due to historic cyclicality.
  • Quote – Brett: “I would bet eventually on a bust happening. Just look at Micron’s stock chart.” [22:17]

• [25:19] Cheapest S&P 500 Stocks (on Forward EV/EBIT):

  • Omnicom Group, APA Corp, Allstate, Viatris, Principal Financial – all under 7x earnings.
    • “I have no clue what…APA Corp does.” [25:19]
  • Omnicom’s deep discount discussed as possible AI-disruption overhang.

• [26:41] Most Expensive S&P 500 Stocks:

  • Axon, Tesla, CoStar Group, Palantir, CrowdStrike.
  • Hosts speculate on whether these could be good candidates for shorting, with Palantir highlighted as highly valued.

3. US Housing Market: Institutional Investor Ban Proposal

• [29:57] Biden’s announcement:
  • Plan to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes to protect American homeownership.
• Hosts’ Take:
  • “It’s pandering for votes… Stats show it’s maybe 0.5% of market nationally, but high in some Sun Belt metros.”
  • Disagreement on whether this would actually increase supply or affordability.
  • Quote – Ryan: “It would suck to get outbid by Blackstone if you’re looking [to buy a house].” [32:05]
  • De minimis expected impact on public homebuilders such as DR Horton, though stock sold off on the news.

4. Small Cap of the Week: Owlet (OWLT)

• [33:59] Listener Submission:
  • Owlet – develops FDA-approved smart anklets to monitor babies’ oxygen, heart rate, and more, with smartphone integration for parental alerts.
• Key Financials:
  • Revenue doubled post-FDA approval; 50% gross margin; slightly negative operating margin but improving; ~242% stock return in past year.
• Competitive Moat:
  • Only FDA-approved product of its kind; parents’ fear and “keeping up with the Joneses” could spur adoption.
• Risks:
  • Short customer life (kids grow); churn risk; “baby economy” trends can change quickly; new telehealth initiative seems undifferentiated.
• Quote – Brett: “Parents will definitely want to use this if other parents are using it… If it’s useful.” [37:40]
• Host Debate:
  • Ryan clarifies the company trades closer to 8–9x gross profit, not 4x.
  • Both see promise but acknowledge execution and product trend risk.

5. US Defense Spending & Political Moves

• [44:00] Trump’s Defense Contractor Plan:
  • Proposals to cap defense executive pay at $5M unless building new plants; limit buybacks unless R&D increases.
• Analysis:
  • Discuss complexities as most contractors (e.g., Lockheed) operate on cost-plus models, so mandates impact both government and company finances.
  • General consensus that increased defense budgets—proposed at $1.5T for 2027—will benefit the sector, regardless of political maneuvering.
  • Quote – Brett: “The legality of mandating buybacks or dividends?… But since [defense firms] are almost pseudo-nationalized, government as their only customer, maybe they can demand this.” [45:10]
  • Quote – Ryan: “If people can’t really compete with you, I don’t think it’s so wrong that the government has a big say in your unit economics.” [48:05]

6. Listener Q&A and Rapid-Fire Topics

• Bubble Watch – The AI Hype:

  • New massive fundraises: Anthropic ($10B at $350B valuation, GIC/CO2 leading); Elon Musk’s xAI ($20B).
  • Hosts skeptical on the moat/commercial opportunity of Grok xAI relative to Claude, Gemini, OpenAI.
  • “Feels like there’s… a three-horse race. Claude, Gemini, OpenAI.” [64:40]

• ASML & TSMC – Semicondutor “Moat” Stocks:

  • ASML up on analyst upgrade; now ~36x EV/EBIT.
  • Both hosts discuss pros/cons of ASML vs TSMC; ASML seen as more “unassailable” but richer in price.
  • “ASML would honestly benefit if Taiwan was destroyed… more machines in other parts of the world.” [53:23]

• Netflix & Warner Bros. Update:

  • Netflix on a drawdown but still pricey (~31x EBIT post-drop).
  • Warner Bros. possibly juicing revenue via cross-platform content licensing ahead of deal.
  • Quote – Ryan: “I do like Netflix… in a fantastic position to increase margins and grow revenue… but EV to EBIT will look very different after this deal.” [58:05]
  • Both not interested as buyers at current valuations.

• SaaS “Apocalypse”:

  • Brief mention; possibly a future discussion point.

• AI Bubble Funding Watch:

  • Noted rapid escalations in AI startup funding rounds.
  • Oil-rich sovereign funds leading capital inflows: “It’s funny that oil money is being poured into the tech world right now.” [64:30]

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Ryan on Venezuela Opportunity:

  "All this feels super speculative. We don't know what the government's going to look like."
  [14:11]

• Brett on Multinational Expansion in LatAm:

  "If you can get 50 million more potential customers in a country with a stable economy, yeah, that's growing your addressable market. But how many years until that happens?"
  [08:17]

• Ryan on S&P 500 Knowledge:

  “I was blown away by how few [S&P 500 businesses] I actually knew…”
  [16:45]

• Brett on Memory Stocks:

  “I would bet eventually on a bust happening. Just look at Micron’s stock chart.”
  [22:17]

• Brett on Owlet’s Moat:

  “Parents will definitely want to use this if other parents are using it… If it’s useful.”
  [37:40]

• Ryan on Defensive Contractors & Gov’t:

  “If people can’t really compete with you, I don’t think it’s so wrong that the government has a big say in your unit economics.”
  [48:05]

• Brett on AI Investment Hype:

  “It feels like there's... a three-horse race. Claude, Gemini, OpenAI.”
  [64:40]

Segment Guide & Timestamps

• 00:00–04:13: Intro & banter, ACA subsidy and Oscar Health news.
• 05:20–15:03: Venezuela shakeup and LatAm investing fallout.
• 16:45–28:36: S&P 500 2025 leaderboard, valuation insights.
• 29:57–33:02: US institutional homebuyer ban – analysis.
• 33:37–42:08: Small Cap of the Week: Owlet – deep dive.
• 43:36–50:43: Defense spending, Trump proposals, industry impact.
• 50:54–66:48: Q&A lightning round: ASML, Netflix, SaaS, AI bubble, segment wrap-up.

Tone and Takeaways

Ryan and Brett keep their tone conversational, wry, and practical, regularly poking fun at market fads, government moves, and their own gaps in knowledge. The emphasis is always on how news translates (or doesn’t) into actionable investing decisions, encouraging listeners to stay skeptical, do their own research, and focus on long-term fundamentals.

Final Thoughts

If you missed the Power Hour live, this episode delivers a whirlwind of macro news, actionable research ideas (Owlet), and sharp debate on market hype cycles. Fans of global investing, valuation work, and spirited co-host rapport will find it especially engaging.