Chit Chat Stocks – Episode Summary

Episode Title: AI Market Meltdown; MercadoLibre + Coupang Earnings; Celebrating 200 Power Hour Episodes!
Date: February 27, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer

Overview

In this special 200th Power Hour episode, Ryan and Brett celebrate their podcast milestone with celebratory drinks and a reflective introduction. The show combines listener questions about their best and worst investing calls, favorite stock pitches and guests, with deep dives into the latest market news—particularly an AI-induced market selloff after a widely circulated “doomsday” report, major layoffs at Block, and fresh earnings from MercadoLibre and Coupang. The episode also features a “Small Cap of the Week” breakdown and thoughtful commentary on recent headlines from Mexico.

Celebrating 200 Power Hour Episodes

[01:29–03:10]

• The hosts relive five years and 200 episodes of Power Hour, noting that the weekly news cycle keeps things fresh.
• They toast the milestone with beers, echoing traditions from previous centennial episodes.
• Listener questions prompt reflective discussions on their favorite stock pitches, best and worst calls, and aspirations for the next 100 episodes.

“It forces me to actually sift through financial headlines and present something more than the headline itself… So it’s kind of a nice forcing function for me as an investor.”
—Ryan [03:10]

Favorite Stock Pitches and Guests

[03:10–08:56]

• Brett names Kraken Robotics as his favorite recent stock pitch—“very exciting company,” “growing really quickly,” and “a very fun one to cover.”
• Ryan highlights his Visa research episode, which deepened his understanding of payment networks.
• Both acknowledge recurring guests Leandro (Best Anchor Stocks) and Drew Cohen (Speedwell Research) as consistently outstanding, well-prepared contributors.
• Notably, Luis Sanchez’s pitch of Interactive Brokers stands out as a particularly successful investment and a well-timed research episode.

Best and Worst Calls (Introspection & Honesty)

[08:56–11:33]

• Brett’s worst call: high conviction on Match Group and overestimating an AI bubble in 2023.
• Brett’s best call: calling the bottom on American Express in late 2023.
• Ryan’s best call: Google, timed perfectly for strong returns.
• Ryan’s worst call: rapid 50% loss on Money.com.
• Both acknowledge the fallacy of equating great products/companies with great investments.

“Good companies… use the product doesn’t mean that’s going to be a good investment.”
—Brett [11:20]

The AI “Doomsday” Report & Market Meltdown

[11:33–25:34]

Citrini Research's “AI Doomsday” Impact

[11:33–14:45]

• The hosts analyze a “doomsday” scenario from Citrini Research, written as if from 2028, imagining 10% unemployment due to AI commoditizing software and tech jobs.
• Notable quote from the report:
  • “Coding agents had collapsed the barriers to entry for launching a delivery app… Multi-app dashboards let gig workers track incoming jobs from 20 or 30 platforms at once, eliminating the lock-in that the incumbents depended on…” [13:21]
• The report triggered a sell-off in stocks like American Express, Booking Holdings, and DoorDash.
• Ryan and Brett fundamentally disagree with the idea that AI agents can easily disrupt entrenched marketplaces—network effects and aggregated supply are significant moats.

“The difficulty of building an Uber is not building an interface. It's going out and getting drivers, getting millions of them… Once again, sounds logical. I think highly, highly, highly unlikely.”
—Ryan [16:31]

The Stablecoin & Payments Angle

[18:03–21:00]

• The “doomsday” report also claimed that AI and stablecoins would erode payment networks’ margins.
• Brett and Ryan note that card network value lies in trust, partnerships, and deep integration, which are all extremely hard and slow to replicate.
• The oft-overlooked challenge is the “off-ramp”—converting stablecoins into currency that can be used with merchants.

“You have to replace the entire economy, local economy or countrywide economy with stablecoins or it doesn't work because most [recipients] would rather just send it back to their bank account which you're gonna take the fee.”
—Ryan [21:00]

AI, Layoffs, and Real-World Company Moves

Block (Square) Layoffs & The AI Excuse

[25:34–31:54]

• Block lays off 4,000 of its 10,000 employees, with CEO Jack Dorsey attributing the move to accelerating AI capabilities.
• Dorsey in his letter:
  • “A significantly smaller team using the tools we are building can do more and do it better. And intelligence tool capabilities are compounding faster every week. I don’t think we are early to this realization. I just think most companies are late.”
    —(Read by Ryan) [27:18]
• Hosts debate whether Dorsey genuinely believes AI can truly halve the workforce, or if he's opportunistically using AI as cover for necessary layoffs.

“For the longest time, everyone talked about AI as like an enabler... it wasn't really until this that someone posed it as a doomsday scenario... And now Dorsey's kind of acting like that's the case.”
—Ryan [28:54]

• Brett jokes: “Half the employees are at adult daycare. That's probably what's happening here.” [29:41]

MercadoLibre (MELI) – Earnings Breakdown

[31:54–43:39]

KPIs, Strategy, and Long Runway

[31:54–38:56]

• MercadoLibre’s Q4 2025 numbers:
  • Net revenue +47% FX-neutral, 10% operating margin, 78 million Fintech MAUs, 121 million unique buyers, $65B gross marketplace value.
• Margins are compressed due to pushing growth—lowered free shipping thresholds and boosted credit card adoption.
• Hosts compare MELI’s trajectory to Amazon’s focus on customer acquisition over short-term margins.
• E-commerce penetration in LatAm is about half that of US/UK/East Asia, suggesting decades of runway.

“It strikes me as one of the businesses that maybe has the largest reinvestment runway in the world…they’re growing like gangbusters in Mexico”
—Ryan [38:56]

Optionality and Moats

• Discussion on MELI’s optionality: expansion throughout LatAm, potential ad business (currently ~2% of GMV, compared to Amazon’s 8%), and deepening fintech linkages.
• Management lauded for a long-term focus and a strong reinvestment culture.

Coupang (CPNG) – Earnings & Data Breach Aftermath

[43:39–50:41]

• Outlines major Q4 theme: big data breach by a Chinese-national employee created a political scandal in Korea, stock dropped 40%. Actual impact: only 2,600 building lobby codes were exposed—no payments or IDs; no evidence of actual harm.
  • “That wouldn’t even be news in the United States, let alone really any other country.” —Brett [46:53]
• Company downplayed breach, but now seeing stabilization.
  • “When customers get free shipping and are spending hundreds of dollars…people are not going to say no.” —Ryan [48:13]
• Q4 results: revenue +14% (constant currency), developing offerings up 31%, continued reinvestment in international expansion.
• Hosts discuss the difficulty of building out new regional marketplaces, but express confidence in Coupang’s core business and founder.

Small Cap of the Week: Badger Meter

[51:00–58:10]

• Multiple listener requests prompt a review of Badger Meter (BMI), a boring but strong long-term compounder in water meters and monitoring solutions.
• Revenue ($917M) and operating profit ($183M)—growing faster recently due to acquisitions; government/utility customers generate low churn, strong recurring business.
• Not cheap at ~26x earnings or ~12x gross profit, but boasts +418% total return in past decade.
• Pending deeper research, Ryan and Brett would need to see stronger synergies or margin expansion prospects to get excited.

Mexico Cartel Headlines & Airport Stocks

[58:38–64:33]

• Mexican cartel violence—specifically, the government’s killing of a major cartel leader—sparked dramatic headlines, airport stock volatility, and a brief selloff.
• Both hosts (as airport stock holders) are dismissive of long-term business impacts, noting the quick return to routine and low actual tourist harm.

“A year from now, volume will be higher. Travel volume to most of the Mexican airports will be higher.”
—Ryan [63:45]

AI “Bubble Watch” & Chatbot Monetization

[64:33–67:34]

• Only 0.5% of the global population pays for advanced premium AI subscriptions, despite a billion free users.
• Brett notes the market may be overestimating the speed of paid AI monetization.
• Fun anecdote: AWS’s “agentic” AI tool inadvertently wiped out an environment for 13 hours, reminiscent of fictional Silicon Valley mishaps.

Notable Quotes

• “It forces me to actually sift through financial headlines and present something more than the headline itself.” —Ryan [03:10]
• “The difficulty of building an Uber is not building an interface. It's going out and getting drivers, getting millions of them.” —Ryan [16:31]
• “When customers get free shipping and are spending hundreds of dollars…people are not going to say no.” —Ryan [48:13]
• “Good companies… use the product doesn’t mean that’s going to be a good investment.” —Brett [11:20]

Timestamps – Key Segments

• 01:29 – Celebrating 200 Episodes & Listener Questions
• 03:10 – Favorite Stock Pitches & Guests
• 08:56 – Best & Worst Investing Calls
• 11:33 – AI Doomsday Report & Market Reaction
• 25:34 – Block Layoffs & The “AI Excuse”
• 31:54 – MercadoLibre Earnings Deep Dive
• 43:39 – Coupang Earnings & Data Breach
• 51:00 – Small Cap of the Week: Badger Meter
• 58:38 – Mexico Cartel Headlines & Airport Stocks
• 64:33 – AI Bubble Watch & Chatbot Monetization

Tone & Takeaways

The episode balances critical market skepticism (particularly of AI-doomsday narratives) with humor, honest introspection, and actionable research for investors. Ryan and Brett provide nuanced counterpoints to sensational headlines and reaffirm the value of disciplined, long-term investing, even as AI and market volatility dominate the news cycle.

Summary prepared for those who missed the episode. All ads and housekeeping sections omitted for clarity.