Chit Chat Stocks – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Airbnb and Remitly Earnings; Buffett's Last 13F; Opportunity at Adyen? $ABNB $RELY $SFM
Date: February 20, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson and Brett Schafer

Overview

In this lively Power Hour episode, Ryan and Brett cover major recent earnings from Airbnb and Remitly—both top portfolio holdings for the hosts—share thoughts on Warren Buffett’s final 13F and Berkshire’s evolving strategy, and discuss overlooked opportunities in high-quality companies such as Adyen and Intuit. The pair reflect on shifting market dynamics, comment on the impact of AI on software moats, weigh in on platform “laziness,” and field listener questions on market trends, Reddit, and Robinhood’s venture fund. The casual yet insightful discourse offers actionable perspectives for fundamental investors navigating 2026’s market.

Key Discussion Points

1. Airbnb Q4 Earnings and Strategic Direction

Timestamps: [04:29] – [15:58]

• Performance Highlights:
  • Nights and experiences booked grew 10% YoY, an acceleration from prior quarter.
  • Average daily rate rose 6%; gross bookings up 16%; revenue up 12%; free cash flow up 13%.
  • Active listings surpassed 9 million.
  • “All around good growth… a general acceleration in the business.” — Ryan [04:29]
• Hotels Expansion Focus:
  • Management shifting from “filling in network gaps” to a broader strategy targeting boutique and independent hotels, especially in Europe.
  • Notable Quote:
    “Some trips are better in Airbnb, but it also means some trips are better in hotels… These hotels really fit the ethos of the Airbnb brand and they are not niche.” — Airbnb mgmt via Ryan [05:08]
• Debate on Experiences and Potential Features:
  • Brett is more positive on Experiences business: “Not as big… but it's building a good product for people, probably going to get ROI on this.” [14:53]
  • Both hosts cite missed “obvious” plays like loyalty programs, sponsored listings, and AI-powered search as untapped growth levers.
  • Skepticism over slow product velocity (“…it just feels like they are avoiding some of the most obvious next steps” — Ryan [09:49]); Brett thinks management is holding these back as a “trick play” to drive growth if/when needed [10:09].

Memorable Exchange:

Ryan [10:22]: “Sponsored listings is such a… I don't think it's compromising the product integrity to have sponsored stays… For some reason, Brian Chesky seems reluctant to do it.”
Brett [10:56]: “Once they have tough comps, once they hit some more maturity… they're going to layer this on because… that's $3 billion in really, really high margin revenue.”

• Valuation Thoughts:
  • Airbnb trading at 21x pre-tax earnings, $66B enterprise value; hosts find it “rock solid,” yet not mind-blowing [09:49].
  • Discussion comparing Booking Holdings—financial optimization—vs Airbnb—vision and product experience [13:00].

2. Remitly Earnings & Leadership Transition

Timestamps: [16:16] – [25:18]

• Quarter Highlights:
  • Active customers up, send volume up 35%, revenue up 26%.
  • Expecting 20% revenue growth in 2026; record operating margins (9% in Q4).
  • Stock up 26% post-earnings but still down 9% for last six months.
• Buyback Frustration:
  • Both hosts strongly wish management would’ve used cash for share repurchases during valuation lows.

    Brett [16:16]: “I really would wish I could just tell… look, your stock's going to be a 10 bagger, but it could be a 20 bagger if we just optimize this buyback.” Ryan [19:00]: “They are bragging about only diluting by 5%. If you are a believer in the business, this is a great time to be buying back.”

• New CEO Assessment:
  • Incoming CEO is ex-Amazon Payments and ex-Santander, also helped with WeWork's turnaround.
  • Compensation plan strongly linked to share price appreciation (up to $50 trigger).
  • “Anyone that reported directly to Bezos… that's a green flag for me.” — Ryan [24:38]

3. Software vs. AI – Resiliency, Moats, and Investor Fears

Timestamps: [25:25] – [32:07]

• Anthropic Saga:

  • Viral anecdote: AI leader Anthropic hiring for Salesforce admin, still using SaaS like Salesforce, Slack, Asana.

    Ryan [28:00]: "The most AI forward company is using legacy software... so is AI really going to kill software?"

  • Hosts mock Twitter comments expecting AI start-ups to replace enterprise SaaS overnight.
  • Brett draws distinction between open source solutions and the value of professional software (support, reliability).

    Brett [29:30]: “The whole reason people go for professional solutions is because you have customer support, regular updates…”

• Investment Implications:

  • Broad fears of internal replacement are overblown. Moated, innovative companies at the right price remain attractive.

4. Adyen: Value Opportunity and Activist Pressure

Timestamps: [32:40] – [43:28]

• Quality-on-Sale Thesis:
  • Adyen and Intuit both on hosts' “want to buy, rarely cheap” list; now both “within range.”
• Activist Shareholder Letter:
  • “There is one area where the company is falling meaningfully short: not in execution, but in communication.” [38:19]
  • Letter calls for clear capital allocation, referencing Visa, Mastercard, and even PayPal (!) as buyback exemplars.

    Brett [38:46]: “Even PayPal, a business going through a more complex strategic transition, has published a clear capital return program... If buybacks are on the table, what conditions would need to be met? At 15 times forward EBITDA... the conditions are already met.”

• Hosts’ Reactions:
  • Both advocate consistent, disciplined buybacks for quality payment processors (“Don’t overthink it” — Ryan [41:05]).
  • Adyen trading at a fraction of Stripe’s private valuation despite similar payments volumes and better margins—seen as “such a high quality business.”

5. Market Trends, Buffett’s Last 13F, and Berkshire’s Post-Buffett Direction

Timestamps: [46:02] – [56:52]

• Market Dispersion and Sentiment:
  • Unusual combination of low overall market volatility and high sector dispersion.

    Brett [46:02]: “No one seems to know what’s going on... It’s like a crazy wife who’s really mad at you; you have no idea why the market’s mad at you, but they are.”

• Quality Rotation and Wall of Worry:
  • Defensive staples like Walmart at sky-high multiples (PE near 50, two decades of 2.5% operating income CAGR).
  • Software stocks climbing “the wall of worry” over AI, may deliver strong multi-year returns while investors are skeptical.

    Brett [48:34]: “These are stocks I do like—stocks that have to climb the wall of worry that have a wider moat than people think.”

• Buffett’s Final Moves:
  • Berkshire trims Apple, some banks, sells Amazon, buys more Chevron, opens a position in New York Times.
  • Potential for Berkshire under Greg Abel to become “smaller to get better”—selling underperformers, freeing up cash for special dividends.

    Brett [52:32]: “What if Greg Abel gets smaller to get better… throw out a huge special dividend, get smaller to make it more manageable and easier to generate returns.”

6. The "Laziness Economy": DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Societal Trends

Timestamps: [56:52] – [61:18]

• DoorDash Earnings:
  • Orders up 32% (20% organic).
  • DashPass members up 59%.
  • Large portion of growth boosted by Deliveroo acquisition.
• Host Philosophies:
  • Brett skeptical of food delivery, sees it as “bad food, overpriced, and I feel dirty” [57:50].
  • Ryan wonders if an ETF themed on “laziness” (e.g., Uber Eats, DoorDash, streaming etc.) would be a success.
• Macro Considerations:
  • Hosts discuss how shifts in US immigration may impact gig economy labor supply—potentially affecting delivery service economics long-term.

    Brett [59:02]: “If immigration outflows continue… that’ll impact supply on the delivery person side.”

7. Notable Listener Questions & Hot Topics

Timestamps: [44:28] – [62:48]

• Reddit as an AI “victim” or beneficiary.
  • Hosts agree Reddit’s value lies in its network, not its interface; can’t be easily replaced [45:02].
• Market Outlook:
  • Questioned on next 3 months’ market direction:

    Brett [46:02]: “It’s a crapshoot… but I can’t see a world in which Walmart sustains a PE near 50 and software companies keep trading in the teens.”

• Robinhood’s Venture Fund ETF:
  • Launching $1B fund (RVI) for public investing in unlisted “top-tier” startups.
  • Hosts cautious: 2% fee reasonable in VC world, but not “bread and butter.”

    Ryan [63:32]: “I think this fund will be successful for Robinhood. I think it will attract capital.”

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “There are so many high-quality businesses trading at reasonable prices. It is a fun time to be an investor again.” — Ryan [00:33]
• “You know you’re going to put that trick play in week four against a bad team… once they have tough comps, once they hit some more maturity, they don't have that easy revenue growth, they’re going to layer this on.” — Brett [10:56]
• “Anthropic—the most AI-forward company—is using legacy software. So is AI really going to kill software?” — Ryan [28:00]
• “It’s hilarious, even PayPal, a business going through a more complex strategic transition, has published a clear capital return program.” — Brett [38:46]
• “It’s such a funny problem, to just have too much cash.” — Ryan [56:31]
• “I’m beginning to realize, you don’t bet against slop and laziness.” — Brett [56:58]
• “The laziest economy keeps growing.” — Brett [59:02]

Takeaways for Investors

• Airbnb: Growth solid but potential being left on table; hotel push and experiences warrant monitoring; valuation reasonable, vision-driven investment.
• Remitly: Strong results, high growth, underappreciated; leadership transition could catalyze re-rating—buybacks missed opportunity.
• Adyen: High-quality payment processor at a rare discount; pressure to clarify capital allocation and buyback stance.
• Software/AI: Fears of wholesale displacement are overblown; durable moats endure, especially for companies with innovation and good stewardship.
• Market: Rotation into “safety” may be top, undervalued quality is returning; ignore the noise, focus on multi-year compounding.
• Platforms/Economy: “Laziness” bets have tailwinds but are cyclical; macro, demographics, and regulation may evolve labor economics.

For deeper earnings analysis, Pro research on Adyen and Airbnb is forecasted for Emerging Moats readers in the coming weeks. Listeners are encouraged to share celebratory ideas for Episode 200 and submit top questions for newsletter giveaways.