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Chit Chat Stocks
Airbnb and Remitly Earnings; Buffett's Last 13F; Opportunity at Adyen? $ABNB $RELY $SFM
01:04:36
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- [00:00]
A
This episode is presented by Interactive Brokers. You research your investments, but did you research Your Broker? In 2025, IBKR retail clients averaged a 19.2% return, beating the S&P 500's 17.9% over time. The broker you choose makes a difference. If you want to learn why, head on over to ibkr.com 2025. More on this later in the show. Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks, the podcast that helps you discover your next great investment. I'm one of your hosts, Ryan Henderson, and I am joined by the one and only Brett Schaefer. Today we've got our weekly Power Hour episode. We typically do these Thursdays at 5pm Eastern Time and we do these live on YouTube. So if you ever want to ask us any questions live, you can head on over to YouTube chit chat stocks at 5pm Eastern time on Thursdays and we should be able to take any questions. But we've got a full slate. We talk all things financial markets on these episodes. We've got Airbnb earnings, we've got DoorDash, remitly one of our top holdings for both Brett and I. We've got an adyen activist and I will say a little teaser here. We have a lot of what I would consider and have previously been considered very, very high quality businesses trading at reasonable prices. It is a fun time to be an investor again, in my opinion because I felt like the last two years was a little tough. You had to get a little more creative. But we've got some stocks on sale. I'll stop there. Brett, where do we want to start this episode?
- [01:39]
B
Well, Ryan, it's power hour 199. Only people that know that are the ones that look at the photo on YouTube. Next week's 200, so we have to find a way to do a little bit of a celebration. It's been, I think that puts us at about five, four years of this format. So it's been a nice little, you know, chugging along with the train here. And we know we have some people that listen every week. We know there's some people that are joining live at least every once in a while. So we thought, you know, to we're not going to be doing a full actual Power Hour on the episode, drinking five beers in an hour, which is, is what that drinking game is. Maybe we'll do one to celebrate a nice little as we we had a sorry for the motorcycle in the background if anyone heard that. Welcome to Latin America. But we might want to do, you know, a Single beer celebrate. We just recorded an episode on Constellation Brands for Ryan, so maybe we can use one of their portfolio holdings, little Pacifico, Modelo or Corona. But we'll talk about them with any. Any fun ideas to celebrate. Number 200 in the substack chat, but excited to get, you know, to this episode. We had a good report remitly, I thought pretty dang good report overall Airbnb, I'd say average report to above average. Pretty solid in Sprouts farmers market. We might talk about them. So. So not. Not as much. You always have the good and the bad with earnings season.
- [03:08]
A
Yeah. What do you think? So I'm down to have our one beer to celebrate episode 200 or power hour 200. What do you think about a little Emerging Moats newsletter giveaway? Maybe one year to the audience.
- [03:26]
B
Anyone?
- [03:27]
A
But we can maybe do like best question in the chat or something.
- [03:33]
B
Yeah, I mean that's. Hey, that, that's not a bad idea. And we still have, I know no one can join now, but we still have, I think 40 or 50 people competing for the best stock pitch for the year. And the winner of that is going to get a year for free too, for the Emerging Moats newsletter. Yeah, I like that. Well, we'll see what the substack chat has to say. Of course they're going to maybe enjoy that idea as well. But Ryan, where do we want to start? Maybe either some earnings or I have as we're past the 15th of February, 13 Fs. Of course, everyone's looking at the final Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, 13 Evans and I may have a hot take of what's going on with that business, but how about we start with Airbnb? It's number one on our list here on this little document. Take us through what happened with this quarter. I know a lot of people, it's always one that many, many people are discussing.
- [04:30]
A
Yeah, all around good quarter for Airbnb. Nights and experiences booked grew 10%, which was an acceleration from the previous quarter. Average daily rate was up 6%. So you got total gross bookings growing 16%, revenue up 12, free cash flow up 13. All around good growth, pretty much just over double digit or double digit, I should say growth for all the line items that matter and a general acceleration in the business. But here was kind of the quote that stood out to me from the conference call.
- [05:06]
B
So
- [05:09]
A
this was focused on the hotel expansion, which for a long time has kind of, I would say maybe been slightly neglected, at least in terms of commentary from the management team. It's been a little more services and experiences oriented. But here's the quote. Our strategy for hotels used to be that we thought of them as filling in network gaps. When a home is booked and when homes are high occupancy, you can get a hotel. What we've now evolved to is a much bigger strategy, a much more expansive strategy. Some trips are better in Airbnb, but it also means some trips are better in hotels. That is true anecdotally. So if you're booking last minute, if you're booking one night, if you're booking for business, if you're staying for a conference, this might be a really good reason to book a hotel. But also we're really focusing on boutiques and independence and a large percent of the inventory. Hotel inventory in the world are boutiques and independence. They provide incredible hospitality. I mean, these hotels really fit the ethos of the Airbnb brand and they are not niche. This is a huge percentage of the hotels in the world. This to me makes way, way more sense, going after hotel inventory and basically booking holdings market especially as they expand internationally and grow listings in markets beyond the US because boutique and independent hotels are fairly, I mean, there are some in the US but it's much. I imagine it makes up a higher percentage of the hotel inventory in other markets, especially in Europe. So I like this effort. I am still very skeptical about the experiences and services effort. The core business is doing great. You've got, I think, active listings past 9 million, which is sort of our barometer for is the moat expanding. Today you're at an enterprise value of $66 billion. Earnings before taxes over the last 12 months is 3.1 billion. So about 21 times on the multiple there. What do you think of the quarter? What do you think of the price today and growth expectations for the coming years?
- [07:24]
B
Okay. And I will say I am covering this company in depth. I should have the schedule memorized, but I believe it's either next week or the week after on emerging moats research. So nice little long read for people if they want that next Friday. But the quarter was, I think, all around solid. Look, the hotels make sense. They're not going to go after the Hiltons and the big brands out there. That's just kind of commoditized and you're not going to have any differentiation there. But I like going after boutique, boutique, smaller and getting that differentiated supply in one way or another. It's not as differentiated as what they have with their core business. One thing I'll mention on the experiences. I think the data that sometimes they've shared and other people have gotten from third parties is a little bit better than you might be thinking, Ryan. Although of course it's not as big of a business and it's not nearly going to be as big of a business as this other stuff in the future. The two things I'm looking for, product wise, that are going to move the needle financially and I would hope that this comes out at some point over the next five to 10 years, maybe within five years. Is one some sort of loyalty program? As someone who's used Airbnb a lot, I would love a loyalty program and I think it would lock people in even more. It's pretty easy to do. It'd be nice for them to partner with maybe a credit card player, especially a travel card Chase American Express, stuff like that, you know, Chase Sapphire. And then on the second button is sponsored listings. Now that seems very, very easy for them to do. And then I, I should also mentioned AI Search, which I think if they get it right, which they've been slow on and they said that they want to get it right before they launch it. If they get it right, it could be very, very helpful given how unique each home is out there. You might have for a family vacation, 10 different criteria for your specific family. Or as an individual of what you want in an Airbnb, you can talk with a chat bot and hopefully I can spit something out within a local area, like, oh, I want walking distance from a beach. Oh, we need something to help with someone who's in a wheelchair. We need all this stuff that could be extremely, extremely helpful if they can get, you know, an LLM right there. But overall, the quarter look valuation's not bad. Feels rock solid. Like, nothing to complain about, but nothing to go. Wow, like they're outperforming my expectations.
- [09:50]
A
Yeah, I get a little frustrated with the product velocity here. It seems like it just feels like they are avoiding some of the most obvious next steps product wise. And I don't understand why the low.
- [10:09]
B
I understand why, Ryan. I understand why they're hitting their numbers now. Double digit revenue growth. When they need it, they'll pull out it, pull it out of the bag.
- [10:18]
A
You think?
- [10:19]
B
Yes, 100%.
- [10:22]
A
I just, it feels like sponsored listings is such a. I, I don't think it's mortgaging your moat. So to that analogy, I think, I can't remember who came up with it, but it, I don't think it's compromising the product integrity to have sponsored stays. If they were to roll out advertising yet for some reason they. Brian Chesky seems reluctant to do it. But you could be right. It might just be the fact that they are waiting for when they really need.
- [10:57]
B
It's like that trick play. It's a trick play in the super bowl kind of deal. You know you're going to put that in week four against a bad team, you're going to do that against a weak opponent. Once they have tough comps, once they hit some more maturity, they don't have that easy revenue growth. They're going to layer this on because I think the way they look at it is if sponsored listings will be or sponsored revenue, what was their GPV there? It's about 100 billion, right? Let's say it's 100 billion now and advertising as a percentage of revenue could get to something like 3% or as a payment volume could get it 3%. Say something like that. That's $3 billion in really, really high margin revenue. But they can also turn that on at $250 billion and then what does that get you? Seven and a half. Am I doing that math correctly?
- [11:44]
A
Yeah, but it's not, it's not like.
- [11:46]
B
But you can't turn it on overnight. I know, that's, that's the thing.
- [11:49]
A
Well also it's like first of all that's a product that you're going to want to expand over time. Obviously we've seen what like Amazon has done with their advertising that that's grown over time and it doesn't, if it doesn't detract from the platform. It's not like a one time turn it on. You know, it's not like if they started doing sponsored stays today, it destroys their ability to do it when they do hit 20 million listings or whatever.
- [12:14]
B
Right. And they can also slow roll it and not have it. As many out there. For example, like you can look at Amazon, took them a while to build that muscle memory Spotify. It's taken them five years to kind of get really that product side from advertisement and the advertiser to there. It takes a while. You're not going to have. I know they're not looking for third party advertisers so to speak. But it's going to take a while to build up that muscle memory. For sure. They do buy back a lot of stock. But I will say we have a comment here. The SBC, this is in the live YouTube chat here. The SBC is also a bit frustrating. Not terrible, but I wish they had the same philosophy as bookings management. Airbnb is going to be one where you're investing in more of the vision. Booking is going to be financial optimization. Would you agree? Yeah.
- [13:01]
A
But nights and experiences booked are the same. The growth is the same on a much higher base.
- [13:08]
B
It's not apples to apples. It's not apples to apples because they're not going after the same target markets. They're not in the same places. There's also maybe constant. Well, is it. It's not dollar amount, it's just. No, no. So constant currency doesn't matter. But look, they're not. Airbnb is not as exposed to hotels or you get. You kind of get what I'm saying. They're in a niche within the travel market, so it's not going to be the exact same and they're not in every geography. So I'm not too concerned.
- [13:38]
A
The growth rate seems surprisingly correlated between the two. Like if you look at the nights booked year over year growth, it's been very similar. And it just. I constantly. I'm an Airbnb shareholder. I think it's my third largest position. I love the platform, but for the life of me I don't understand why I'm avoiding bookings.
- [13:58]
B
It's probably product experience. Just use it.
- [14:01]
A
Yes, it is. But financially, if I assume that both are going to grow and it's not a winner take all and they're going to grow at similar rates, I would think booking is more of a fit. But I do think Cesky is the vision.
- [14:21]
B
Come on, believe.
- [14:22]
A
But I'm not sure I agree with some of the vision. Like the services doesn't.
- [14:28]
B
Why? What's wrong with service? Or what's services that's relevant, that's tiny. But what's wrong with experiences seems like an easy way to get a billion in revenue at some point. Sign I move the needle too badly.
- [14:41]
A
I mean, yeah, like let's say they do replicate a viator and they're able to compete on that front. Like. Exactly. It doesn't move the needle. I feel like you can put dev resources towards other solutions.
- [14:53]
B
Well, you're building a good product for people. You're probably going to get ROI on this. If you're more end to end on the vacation experience within the Airbnb app, I think that's helpful as well. They've talked about. And I wonder how high percentage this is. I've seen some good data. It's kind of hard to tell. You're looking at a lot of third party stuff. But People that go for, okay, you're searching online. I want to do a tour in X City takes you to Airbnb. They now have experiences and then new people get introduced to the platform, they become an active user and then they book a home and then become a very profitable customer. I think that makes sense.
- [15:32]
A
I mean, who, who's. I guess maybe first time customers.
- [15:37]
B
Maybe.
- [15:37]
A
But I don't think people are discovering Airbnb for the first time because they find an experience. Like people.
- [15:42]
B
Oh, I mean, they've talked about this on the conference call. This is happening.
- [15:45]
A
I know, but when you launch a new product, you just hand pick the most optimistic data you can. It's what happens if they just. I could see a world where they stop talking about it in two or three years.
- [15:54]
B
I. Oh, no way. No way. We'll see.
- [15:58]
A
I mean, they did it. They launched, you know, experiences three or four years ago and maybe they'll relaunch it in three or four years and we'll be in the same, same position. But we've gone a little long on Airbnb here. Do we want to talk another holding of ours? Remitly?
- [16:16]
B
Sure. Yeah. A lot of people were asking about this. I said I was going to talk about it. I got three thumbs ups in the chat. So I think maybe that means, you know, what a company does well with a quarter. People like that. What's this? What the stock finish up today because it's not a bad day to be a remitly shareholder. It's been a bad few months. Finished up 26%, but in the last six months, we're still down 9%. So we're making a comeback. But all around, I think, great report. Active customers of 19 send volume, 35 revenue up 26%. You're going to kind of get that mix where they're adding more and they're actually talking about this on the call. They're focusing on more higher volume senders and small businesses. So you're going to get lower, take rate. Revenues going to be a little slower than send volume and active customers are going to be a little slower than revenue. Expecting 20% revenue growth in 2026. Record operating margin of 9% in Q4. I thought that was probably the biggest highlight. Now, if they hammered the buyback, I would have said perfect quarter, but they didn't. And I talked about this quarter going, oh, don't worry now we're going to hit the buyback. And I was thinking, you're sitting there in November and December after your earnings call, you're seeing your numbers, you know you're going to be, Your stock's at 12 bucks, two times gross profit and you go, I'm sitting on $500 million in cash and I can't take out 10%. Like just take out 5% of your shares. You could have done it. It's a very liquid stock. That was the thing that just frustrating, frustrating. I really would wish I could just tell. We'll get to the CEO. I'll let Ryan give us thoughts in the quarter and then we'll talk about the CEO change. Really wish I could tell him, look, your stock's going to be a 10 bagger, but it could be a 20 bagger if we just optimize this buyback. Besides that, I still think it's going to work and it's, it's been good. You research your investments, you analyze markets, you manage risk. But did you research Your broker? In 2025 IBKR clients outperformed the S&P 500. Retail clients averaged 19.2% while hedge fund clients averaged 28.91% compared to the indexes 17.9%. IBKR's lower trading costs, competitive rates, efficient execution and access to more than 160 global markets helps investors keep more of what they earn and put more capital to work. Over time, the brokerage you choose makes a difference. If you care about performance, find out why the best informed investors choose. Interactive brokers@ibkr.com 2025 Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.
- [19:00]
A
It is, yeah. It's so frustrating. I mean they were like, I remember screening for software stocks in North America that were basically certain growth parameters below an EV to gross profit of like 3. They stood pretty much alone as one of the cheapest software businesses in North America. And they are bragging about only diluting by 5%. It's like this is. If you are a believer in the business, if you believe in your own business, this is a great time to be buying back. So that part did irk me. Other than that, you really can't ask for a better report. It's actually so shocking that they don't have a higher multiple because they have sustained 20% plus revenue growth and guided now for 20% annual revenue growth. I think basically for the next three years. If you use their Investor day guide that is like phenomenal. That's best in class. I mean if they get to $3 billion in revenue and $600 million in adjusted EBITDA, which I think is their guide in it, frankly it could easily be higher. There's no reason that it should trade at. I think. What was it an enterprise value of like? It was like 2.8 for a while. It doesn't really. It really makes no sense.
- [20:29]
B
I think enterprise value was below two and a half for a bit. We can check it out, but here's a chart I wanted to look at. Might be a little small on people's screens here, but look at this send volume. It's just accelerating. They are executing. Talk about. You talk about Airbnb with non expansionary new products, right? That's something that Ryan and I have debated. I think both of us would agree it's been a little worse than you would desire it as compared to someone like Uber. But look at Remitly here. They've added these new products. They're going after the higher volume centers and the business customers and we've gone from kind of just steady send volume growth. And yeah, Q4 is higher, but I mean just look at that step change. It's just fantastic. We were at in March 2022.5 billion dollars quarterly send volume and we're now at 25 billion, which is fantastic.
- [21:21]
A
And it's. It's funny how the narrative both in the investment community and maybe just all investors broadly is remittance taxes. There's going to be a remittance tax. They're screwed. And Remitly is literally advertising it. It's their ad campaigns. They're like, do you want to avoid the cash remittance tax? Come to Remitly. It's become fuel for send volume growth and new customers. And they even talked about that they were able to see good new customer growth while red reducing their, their planned marketing spend because they were so effective on some of those avoid the remittance tax type campaign. So yeah, exceptional quarter. I think it's too early to have any strong opinions on the new CEO. I honestly had no idea who he was prior to this call and I think.
- [22:20]
B
Did you do any research? Do you know anything about him? I did a little. Some brief stuff today.
- [22:25]
A
No, I didn't do much. I listened to him on the call, but that's it.
- [22:29]
B
Well, ran Amazon Payments, was in charge of Amazon Marketplace then. That's good. You know, way much bigger business. Kind of understandable. You got that two Seattle companies there. And then he was head of consumer finance for Santander, which is a giant consumer bank. I believe it started in Spain, but it's big in Latin America. I think he probably wanted to move to tech technology company. Seems that's where he. He's liked. And did you know that after the Adam Newman debacle at WeWork he was brought in as some sort of leader? I don't know if he was the CEO, but part of the turnaround story. We'll forgive him for that. No one. No one I think could have turned around. Turned around that. But the fact. We'll see what happens. You never know. Like the fact that he was in charge of Amazon payments though he has at least from that standpoint the experience of leading a large organization. Did you also see the comp plan? Now I didn't read the details of this. I just saw a screenshot but. And people look up the exact details yourself. But essentially he's getting a must like RSU or performance stock unit plan where if the share price hits I believe it's something like $20 at some point this year on the first anniversary of his appointment, he gets 20% of his RSUs and $25 and then up to I think five tranches to $50 you'll get the full performance. What are your thoughts on that?
- [23:58]
A
I mean good for him because when you can step in and get that kind of a package when the business could just. You could just have multiple RE rating.
- [24:09]
B
It's kind of good. Yeah. Good. I mean. Yeah.
- [24:12]
A
Not to be too aggressive here, but I don't think $50 in a few years is outrageous. Really.
- [24:20]
B
Well, do you know what they IPO that probably. Yeah. Right around there. Yeah. Still very small. Still very small.
- [24:30]
A
Yeah. I actually kind of. Whatever. I mean if he gets there, I'll be happy. But think they could have been more aggressive with that.
- [24:37]
B
The.
- [24:38]
A
Anyone that is been that reported directly to Bezos. That's a green flag for.
- [24:46]
B
Oh yeah. You know what they said he was on the S team. Oh if you're on the S team, I mean that's bonafide right there. You're getting invited to Jassy super bowl party in the basement at Medina. I mean come on. He knows his stuff. Yeah.
- [25:02]
A
In all sincerity I do think like you could not there's not a better person to have learned from.
- [25:08]
B
Yeah. That's a hard driving guy. Yeah. Yeah.
- [25:11]
A
Let's so all around very happy with remitly. I think I finally got it back over my cost basis.
- [25:19]
B
So I'm close. I'm close to about that as well. Yeah, this is. It was a good day but it's been a tough few months, that's for sure.
- [25:26]
A
Yeah, when I zoom out I'm a little less happy. I wanted to maybe we can shift gears from earnings for a bit. I went semi viral this week with a tweet actually twice. This is kind of pat on the back for me.
- [25:43]
B
Yeah. If you ever wonder why fiscal AI tweets about remit Lane coupang it's because Ryan runs the account.
- [25:49]
A
I almost posted a sprouts farmer's market chart today.
- [25:52]
B
I was like nah, people that's going
- [25:54]
A
to like this and no one else is going to care.
- [25:58]
B
That's fair.
- [25:59]
A
Yeah. No it so I shout out to Sean Emery who actually drew my attention to this Anthropic parent company of Claude had a job listing that said that was for a Salesforce administrator, basically someone to help integrate and manage their Salesforce software. I posted a picture of that because I think it's ironic. Obviously the most the AI forward company is using legacy software. So is AI really going to kill software Anyways? They also apparently subscribe to Slack and Asana. Funny enough, I think Anthropic actually took the job listing down after this because I couldn't find it yesterday. Or maybe they filled it but I have never seen it. I don't want to spend all day talking about the AI versus software debate, but this actually painted a good picture for me of kind of how crazy some of this is. So here were some of the comments. Keep in mind this is Claude or Anthropic. They. They have to use a bunch of software vendors like they obviously do. Salesforce, Asana, Slack. I'm sure they use a ton Ryan,
- [27:16]
B
I got before you keep going did you? Well you probably didn't listen to it came out today so on an Odd Lots podcast today, did you know that Anthropic and OpenAI combined have fewer employees than Docusign now? It says something about the size of both companies where but in all reality they're they don't have enough engineers to disrupt every software company tomorrow is what I'm saying. There's only so many people even however impressive the company is and if you look at those that revenue chart is insane for anthropic. 100 million, 1 billion. 14 billion. I mean it's insane. But they're not going to replicate Salesforce tomorrow.
- [27:55]
A
No, and I I can't think of There would not be a more wasteful business than one who all they do is repurpose external software vendors for internal tools. If that's all their engineers did, the business would have no product. So it's it. Yes, I think it's dumb but anyways they are hiring for people to manage their software business software relationships. And in the comments I was. I was honestly in disbelief by some of the comments. So I'm going to read some of them. Someone says that employee will be fired in 18 months. Someone says this is probably basically an undercover role just to get full enterprise access, real deliverables. Rewrite the suite internally within a month. Third one they need the one human who will clone Salesforce into Claude. People think it's like a decoy I guess as they're hiring this guy just to clone it. It's amazing how much market cap has been lost to this idea that everything's going to be built internally for companies despite honestly so much disconfirming evidence. I truly have not heard of one example other than people who are like talking their own book that are founders of AI companies or something like that where a big company actually ripped and replaced mission critical software suite other than like Fortune 4 or whatever where they kind of have to. So anyway thought it was funny and I think it lends some confirmation for
- [29:30]
B
me as a large software shareholder for the software backlog. Yes. Salesforce 50% drawdown gap PE25 I mean talk to Benioff about that. Gap figures. That's not too bad. EV to EBITDA15 Another good point this investor made on odd lots and I just. I'm thinking about it because I listened to it a few hours ago while I was making food. The software company is already compete with free versions of stuff and it's called open source software. But the whole reason people go for professional solutions is because you have customer support, regular updates. I mean Ryan, I don't want to say the exact company but you told me about some vendor you're using for fiscal AI. It was like an open source thing run by one person and then they just shut it down and you had the scramble. It was a tough week for you to go to a whole new system that was much more reliable. I mean that's. I think that makes the entire point. For some stuff, yeah, it's going to be tougher but there's so much. Maybe it's just because we're on Twitter too much. People are writing 10,000 word essays about whether software is going to be great or software is going to die. I don't think it's black and white. It's a specific company. Is your company have a wide moat? Did it already have a wide mode? Okay. It'll be more defensible. Are they innovative with the product? Are you going to keep up with the times? Okay. That's good that you need to add all these AI tools for your customers to help them get better. And are you good at capital allocation? Do you understand capital returns properly? Yes, yes, yes. Then your stock's probably going to be fine if you buy at the right price. But it's not black and white. No. Just as it never was.
- [31:18]
A
I feel like we have talked about this a million times. It would continue.
- [31:21]
B
Do you want to talk Adyen?
- [31:24]
A
Yes, I just want to say, like that's the last note. There are. So I keep hearing this like, someone's gonna build it internally. But like, who? No,
- [31:36]
B
maybe at Amazon or something. But Amazon signed with Zoom. Like they're, they're not gonna build everything internally. Like some of the large enterprises do build stuff internally. That's. Yes, but they're not gonna build everything. But you have only the large enterprises.
- [31:49]
A
You have teams that stay dedicated to that product. You have engineers that are like, like obviously maintaining it so that it's helpful for the whole company. I don't really know any, like, people are like, well, developers are just going to side quest this. And it's like, I don't know anyone that's doing that. And if you are, it's a waste of your time.
- [32:05]
B
People could already side quest stuff.
- [32:07]
A
Yeah, I mean, I, I've had friends, developers at our company that, you know, try to side quest certain tools or whatever and it's fine, but it's like I don't want them doing that with our internal tools. Like go out and build something and get us more revenue, you know, like get. Attract more customers to the core business. It doesn't, it's not really a net benefit in my opinion. Another. I guess we can talk to quality stock. So this week I made a new list for
- [32:40]
B
a thread.
- [32:42]
A
What's that for a thread? No, no, no.
- [32:45]
B
A new watch list on fiscal. Yeah, you can make many. I have my longs and shorts and watch list. Well, I have existing holdings, watch list and shorts, but I could add many more.
- [32:57]
A
You don't have your psychological longs.
- [32:59]
B
I should have that one. I should have that one and see if it outperforms. Yeah, that's a good idea. It's a good idea for the show. I mean, in reality, as a, you know, with my personal investing, it doesn't matter, but maybe, maybe for show purposes we can do that. But what watch list did you make?
- [33:14]
A
This one was basically just a I really want to buy them, but they're always too expensive list. And two of the ones on that list are now I think within range Intuit is one because I think about it every tax season when I pay TurboTax and it's got all my information already. Adyen was another. I can't remember who else was on this list. It was not a long list, but both of those reasonable prices. And I think I know Intuit's in its largest drawdown ever. I think Adyen might be around its largest drawdown as well.
- [33:52]
B
Yeah, never got back to its 2021 high. So it's been five years there. Yeah. We have other. Let's see some of the comments here. Well, someone said they vibe coded their own version of fiscal AI and they told me to invest in Tesla. But the. That's a joke, complete joke for anyone that doesn't get that. But someone related to this said I bought S P Global and Moody's during the sell off. Maybe some other high quality stocks there. I don't think banks will use some AI slop to determine credit ratings and whether they will loan billions of dollars to companies. I think that's a good point that could be included into this list. Into it. Look, I was on the side of hey, why do we gotta pay for this stuff? But you know, every year I go, eh, TurboTax is convenient. It's not the worst price in the world. Yeah, I'll use them, it's fine.
- [34:41]
A
Yeah. And is helpful. I remember talking to Leandro about it and he. I was like, well you know, I feel like this is weird that we have to pay for in order to pay our taxes. He's like, no, trust me, you don't want a government built solution. I think he had experience with like some sort of government built tax solution in Spain or something like that. Or maybe he was Spaniard.
- [35:04]
B
Yeah, yeah, probably, probably.
- [35:05]
A
He was like, it's way worse than a private company building this as their core business. And it's a good point. I mean TurboTax does honestly make it easy and it's a reasonable price for obviously it depends on how much you're making I guess. But it's a reasonable price typically as a percentage of someone's earnings. So. And it's so sticky once your information is all in there, unless you like have some major job transition or something where you like totally reset your life's tax information, it makes sense to stay with TurboTax in my opinion. So I've always liked that business. I think it's real sticky and EV to EBIT 21 times. So again, not the cheapest in the world, but it's Getting there. I think Adyen's even cheaper, actually.
- [36:04]
B
Well, it's had a bit of a comeback since the last. How do I even look at this earnings yield? It's very hard for to look at their exact one because you can't use evidence. But Adyen was at something like 20 times, I'd say. And yeah, it has bounced a little bit. I was up. The European listing was down to like 900 or even below. Now it's almost back to a thousand, which is a real shame because I'm writing a full research report on them now for three or four weeks from now. And you know, you got to stay disciplined. You don't want to buy before you do your full research. At least sometimes I feel that way. I bought some shares at least for, for the newsletter. I don't want to, you know, buy before writing a full research board, giving my thoughts, stuff like that. Now in cases like ad yet I feel like maybe I'm missing something. But who knows, maybe we find Delos. The reason I want to talk about this week though is there was an investor and he has a northern European last name, so I might get it wrong. Albert Delerma Dilemma. He's the investor. I retweeted it. He is an investor in Addie and he had a couple of good quotes. It was a letter written to management. I don't think he's a full activist. It's more of something, hey, look, I'm a shareholder. I'm not going to have influence here. Maybe he's large enough, but I'm not sure. And he just had a few questions for the company. I'm going to read a couple of quotes here. I'm a shareholder of Adyen and I have followed the company closely over the last couple of years. The second half 2025 results confirmed confirm the growth and margin possibilities for Adyen. Revenue growing at 21, EBITDA margin expanding to 55%, which is precisely why I'm writing. This is one area where I believe the company is falling. There is one area where the company is falling meaningfully short. Not in execution, but in communication. And it is in that area left unaddressed, risk becoming a genuine drag on how the market values this business, regardless of how well everything else performs. Second quote. Companies Adyen is most naturally compared to have a clear capital allocation framework. For instance, Visa commits 80% of its free cash flow to shareholders through a combination of dividends and buybacks. MasterCard operates with similar discipline. Even PayPal? He's really saying even PayPal. This total, as we like to say, crap co to use, you know, in case there's kids in the car. Even PayPal, a business going through a more complex strategic transition, has published a clear capital return program and articulated exactly what it intends to do with excess cash. Think about how bad you are feel if you work at PayPal. Someone goes, even PayPal you feel, you'd feel, you'd feel terrible. Here's a third quote. Third, if buybacks are on the table, what conditions would need to be met at 15 times forward EBITDA. With the stock more than 40% below its 2021 peak, one can make a compelling argument that the conditions are already met. If management disagrees, it would be helpful to understand why. And they have like $5 billion in excess cash. I think it's 5 billion euros. So maybe it's like $6 billion in excess cash in USD. It's growing. They're generating a lot of free cash flow. They need stuff for regulatory compliance when operating as kind of a banking licenses and all that stuff that kind of goes over everyone's head. But they need more cash on the balance sheet than you might think. You can't run extremely lean, but there's a lot of room to buy back stock. Thoughts here, Ryan, and whether. Just thoughts on that, that letter.
- [39:36]
A
All right folks, before we move on, let's talk about our home for investment research, Fiscal AI. Fiscal AI is the complete stock research platform for fundamental investors. We use it every single day here at Chit Chat Stocks. It has everything you need to research individual companies from 20 years of financial data to company specific segments and KPIs earnings call transcripts, Morningstar reports and insider ownership data and much, much more. And they just lowered the price of their Highest tier by 60%. If you want a complete enterprise grade financial data terminal, check out Fiscal AI. If you use our link Fiscal AI Chitchat, you will automatically get two weeks of Fiscal Pro for free, no card required. And if you want to upgrade, our link will get you 15% off any paid plan. Again, that's fiscal AI chitchat. The link will be in the show notes. Yeah, I did read that they do require like slightly more capital on the balance sheet. But yeah, first of all, to the activists writing this letter, I would have left PayPal out of the discussion. I don't think highlighting them as someone with a great capital allocation framework given that.
- [40:44]
B
Well, they do, they do have a good capital allocation framework.
- [40:48]
A
But is it for the best?
- [40:50]
B
Maybe, Yeah. I mean either what is PayPal going to do with an excess $10 billion wasted on more development. Going over the excess cash flow to buybacks is fine. I mean that's much better than what Ad Yet's doing.
- [41:06]
A
Yeah, I honestly don't know. Maybe they could have improved Venmo or something. And maybe this is the best of the worst case scenarios for PayPal is just to be buying back stock. But yeah, I think it makes sense to be buying it back now. And you look at the Visas and the mastercards of the world for a business like that, that's that consistent. I feel like you want the simplest capital allocation framework. Don't overthink it. Buy it back on a regular basis. And I actually, I'm not fond of when companies try to be opportunistic with it. I used to be, I used to think that was the way to go. But the companies that are just consistent that are like I'm going to put in 80% of my free cash flow towards buybacks every quarter or whatever it's. You kind of get the benefit of the volatility anyways as opposed to saying I'm going to wait now I'm an issue here, I'm going to buy back here. Just keep it consistent. I will say Adyen Payments processing in
- [42:17]
B
general,
- [42:21]
A
that's one of the things as a big business you never want to replace as long as you have a good payments processor. It would be such a pain in the butt to switch Stripe which processes I believe the exact same roughly amount of payments volume. So Last update was 2024 they said they processed 1.4 trillion addyen this year processed 1.6 trillion dol so I would assume it's similar. They have a $140 billion private market valuation which of course doesn't actually mean anything. Adyen similar business, better margins, way more cash generative and similar processing volume is sitting I think around $35 billion market cap like a fraction of Stripe's perceived value. It seems like such a high quality business and usually when the payments businesses are built from the ground up and not a patchwork of like different acquisitions, it helps for diagnosing issues and growing.
- [43:28]
B
You're forgetting one thing Ryan. They published Munger's book True. Come on, that's gotta be worth a couple billion dollars. They're actually a media company now.
- [43:40]
A
With the podcast.
- [43:41]
B
Yeah, with the podcast, which I guess does well, it's probably not the end of the world but yeah, it's focused on other things. I think what's hilarious is that they're from what the letter sounded like they have a huge head, not headquarters but a bunch of offices in Chicago in the United States, which I think is funny because we're not going to San Fran, we're not going to New York. We're going to somewhere where we're going to save 30% on salaries. That's what they're focused on and that's why they have 55% EBITDA margins, which I appreciate and I'm very interested in this company have never been a shareholder but definitely over the next few weeks going to be researching them much further. We have question from the audience asking if we own Reddit. Said this listener says they bought during the sell up. I will say I've never owned it. Ryan, have you ever been a shareholder?
- [44:29]
A
Never been a shareholder but I am. I like the business and apparently there's a narrative. They're like somehow an AI. They're the latest AI victim I guess
- [44:40]
B
because they were a winner but now they're a victim. The power is all secret. That little secret it powers all of your returns is Wikipedia and Reddit. That power and Molly fool articles, I should say they're actually one of the top hundred sources for training for chat, GPT, Gemini, all the others. Yeah, it's Reddit. So that's where you're getting this information.
- [45:03]
A
Yeah, I saw some people like well I can replicate the Reddit user interface with AI and it's like actually anybody could replicate the red user interface. The whole, pretty much the entire business model is the people on Reddit like they've got, I think it's like 400 million something weekly active users. There's it's like a classic network effect. It's very hard to replace. Personally as a, I don't contribute much to Reddit but I can certainly see the value in it. I see the ad ad I guess potency maybe is the word why it could be effective. Yeah but I guess I don't know, maybe just my poor user experiences with Reddit has deterred me from being a shareholder. I mean the business model makes sense. I'm sure it could be really cash generative.
- [46:02]
B
Yeah well we're trading at 12 times sales and that's not my favorite. Not my favorite. All right, other question before moving on to topic. What do you guys think happens to the overall market three months forward? Do you guys think bean down companies trade back up to all time highs or do you think the defensive stocks trade down and drag the index? Here's I'll say first this is just going to be some take on a Podcast. We're not trading off of any of this. But what I saw, I believe it was in the Wall Street Journal today. The dispersion between sector performance while the market has zero volatility. So volatility has been the lowest on record over the last three months while sector dispersion, where some sectors are doing fantastic, other sectors are getting crushed is the highest on record, which that was quite fascinating. No one seems to know what's going on. My joke was that it's like a crazy wife right now who's really mad at you. You have no idea why the market's mad at you, but they are mad and you got to figure it out. It might not be, it might be not be rational, but they're mad and you gotta, you gotta do something about it. That's, that's really what's going on.
- [47:10]
A
Gotta figure it out. Yeah. Three months forward, obviously kind of a crapshoot here, but I can't see a world in which Walmart sustains a PE near 50 and yeah, that's a good point. Software companies, assuming that they continue to grow the top line by double digits stays at teens multiples.
- [47:36]
B
So why is someone owning Walmart over Amazon?
- [47:42]
A
I our Latin American correspondent Ian Bizek had his take was basically people are selling software and they got to put it somewhere. Let's just put it in the most. Let's, let's do a no look and just put it in the most stable business we can think of which has grown operating income. Can you guess what the annual growth rate of operating income has been for Walmart over the last 20 years? Average eight, two and a half percent.
- [48:14]
B
Oh wow, that is atrocious. Yeah, they're getting into grocery. It's been a slim margin. Yeah, it's. Hey, well per share might be better
- [48:28]
A
but I'm pretty sure it was two and a half percent. I can double check. But it was low. I was shocked how low it was.
- [48:34]
B
That's fascinating. I think over the next three months you could see some of these software companies, they're going to report, find numbers. But the whole thing about this thesis that these companies are going to have to climb the wall of worry and it's not going to be an immediate thing is everyone just goes, well, what happens three months from now your business might be dead. And then you report good numbers. Oh well, what happens three months from now your business might be dead. New AI tool. And this is, and these are kind of stocks I do like stocks that have to climb the wall of worry that have a wider Moat than people think. It's not something that can be a three to six month catalyst. It's a multi year deal. You might be flat for a year can be frustrating but you'll get situations like for example the first round we had with sprouts farmers market, it's kind of going nowhere but then all right, comp stores normalize. The stock was trading at 5 times earnings margins start expanding. Your revenue growth is in double digits now and then it goes up 5x. That's kind of how I see a lot of these software companies where some aren't going to work out but the ones that do. You're going to climb the wall worrying eventually you're going to get a really interesting result.
- [49:47]
A
Yeah, it's. I don't know how long the wall of worry lasts but I mean you think about any. Anytime I share like revenue growth or whatever for let's say Adobe people are like yeah, well that's backwards looking like they used to grow and it's like well ChatGPT was launched four years ago. Like they've been growing for four years.
- [50:08]
B
Three and a half, right? Three and a half. Three and a half.
- [50:10]
A
I think it was 2022 or something late 2022.
- [50:13]
B
Yeah.
- [50:13]
A
Okay. Canva was launched 15 years ago. Figma was launched 15 years ago. These things have existed. So I think it's just part of me wants to just buy, buy some of these businesses and close my eyes for a few years. Kind of wish like, kind of like how I think some people had to do with Meta in 2022 and Big Tech I guess broadly. We've got a comment, Andrew Marshall which. Hey Andrew, everyone go check out capital
- [50:42]
B
Mindset recurring guest on the show.
- [50:44]
A
Yes, not that I agree with it, but the argument could be made that Amazon is exposed to AI software, AI slash software and that seen as toxic. If there is one thing seen as AI proof it's physical food stores.
- [51:00]
B
I would bet if I was a casino I'd put much worse odds that Amazon's revenue from retail is lower on a real basis 50 years from now than Walmart. I think given their skew towards younger audiences, given the fact that they can push more into rural areas, I just think that they're. I understand his point there and that's what people are thinking but I just wholeheartedly disagree. Like Amazon's moat is more durable. I think it's more durable in retail.
- [51:32]
A
And he does, he does start the statement with not that I agree with it, but it is, maybe that is what people are thinking. Is they just want. I honestly think people just want to avoid as much tech exposure as possible. Like they want to get some people.
- [51:47]
B
Yeah. Unless you're certain companies. Okay, do you want to talk Buffett or not? Buffett, R.I.P. he didn't die, but he, he retired. We're going to talk Berkshire Hathaway's movements. I get a little bit of a hot take of what Greg Abel might be cooking up. Last 13F for Buffett came out trimmed a little bit of bank of America, turned a little bit of Apple, sold a lot of Amazon, although it was a smaller position. Maybe it was a Todd Comms position. They bought a lot more Chevron and they have a new position in the New York Times. I kind of understand that thesis. There's a lot of consolidation in newspaper. They're kind of the global player in news, especially American news, at least not
- [52:30]
A
really a news business anymore. Brett, by the way, that's true.
- [52:32]
B
It's games and. Well, it depends who you talk to, but they could be a lot of. Yeah, it's games and stuff. Right. It's all the other stuff along with it. But interesting that about. It's tiny as a part of the business. What's more fascinating for from the Berkshire standpoint as a potential, if you're a shareholder, is the fact that Greg Abel, as the leader of the business and also the leader of the energy business, they're selling $1 billion worth of wind farms, transmission and a natural gas plant. I think Pacific Corp. May be technically bankrupt. They could have been part of that wildfire issue in California. I could also be talking out of my rear end there. What people were speculating about this though, is that you have all this cash on the balance sheet. Greg Abel's taken over. There are a lot of, over the last three decades, a lot of underperforming assets at Berkshire. Duracell is an example. Sleepwell Capital is one that mentioned that on Twitter. What if Greg Abel gets smaller to get better? This is my hot take. You sell some of the underperforming assets, you make the business pure play. Insurance, energy business, railroad stock portfolio. You get rid of some of the stuff that's not great. You trim some of the stuff that obviously is not performing well now that Buffett's gone. You free up a lot of cash, throw out a huge special dividend, get smaller to make it more manageable and easier to generate returns for shareholders. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast. Smart move. Being financially savvy. Smart move. Another smart move. Having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state. This episode is brought to you by Indeed. Stop waiting around for the perfect candidate. Instead, use Indeed sponsored Jobs to find the right people with the right skills fast. It's a simple way to make sure your listing is the first candidate. C. According to Indeed data, Sponsored Jobs have four times more applicants than non sponsored jobs. So go build your dream team team today with Indeed. Get a $75 sponsor job credit@ Indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply.
- [55:10]
A
Yeah and he might want just like a smaller equity portfolio in general. Maybe that's not where he considers it like his core competence. Like if he's more of an operator and to be honest, I don't know Abel that well, but I kind of got the sense that he was more operator as opposed to like the Ted and Todd running the portfolios. It would make sense. I don't think having a bunch of money tied up in positions that he doesn't know as well makes sense.
- [55:41]
B
Right. That's a good point. You have Combs leaving. Is Weschler going to manage $300 billion? That's. That's a lot to put on his shoulders. Maybe is the chops. I mean that Roth ira, you know that's legendary. But who knows.
- [55:57]
A
I think it's probably some of that just him not being too well acquainted with some of the stocks in the portfolio. The New York Times position is interesting.
- [56:09]
B
It's too small of a business though. It's not going to matter for them.
- [56:11]
A
Yeah. I would love clarification this meeting, this annual meeting which I think is coming up in early May around basically who's doing what roles.
- [56:25]
B
Yeah like it's kind of like at the like as a part of a family. Like hey who's. Who's got the chore responsibility around here?
- [56:31]
A
Like yeah like who's. Who's making the equity investments and who's like is Todd more operator? It's. It's such a funny problem to just have too much cash.
- [56:42]
B
Like it's return it just I think special dividend it would be font one great to talk about but I think it's the right move.
- [56:52]
A
Yeah. At least some of it. Doordash earnings. Did you see these?
- [56:59]
B
Yes. I'm beginning to realize you don't Bet against the slop and laziness. I've never bet against them, but psychologically it's kind of. I've kind of been one, a doubter of the business and they keep proving people wrong.
- [57:15]
A
Yeah, I guess this was sort of my second viral thing that happened this week. But total orders jumped by their highest amount ever this quarter. But it's. Most of it was inorganic. Well, a big chunk of it was inorganic because they bought Deliveroo, which helped total orders grow. So anyways, people were outraged about this. And I did not realize how many people hate doordash and just hate the idea of food delivery generally.
- [57:51]
B
I think you're talking to one of them philosophically, even though I've used it philosophically, I feel dirty.
- [57:57]
A
I don't get like, it's not. Food delivery is not new.
- [58:01]
B
I think pizza deliveries are new.
- [58:02]
A
I guess it for years.
- [58:04]
B
Yeah. But this is a little different because one is so expensive and two, the food is so bad when it gets there. Unless it's pizza or Chinese or some Asian food, it's usually terrible.
- [58:17]
A
I don't use it. And if my significant other tries to use it, I say just call, I'll pick it up. Because I get frustrated with the delivery.
- [58:26]
B
You run the. You run the little gasoline math in your head. Yeah, yeah, you know, let's save a little 20 bucks. I'll run, I'll run down the road.
- [58:34]
A
Yeah, but the numbers actually look pretty good. DashPass members were up 59%. Orders up 32%, 20% organically. Gross order value grew 25% organically. Here's my question for you. Maybe we do this for the next sector or thematic episode. What do you think of a bet on the laziness economy that is Uber Eats, DoorDash, Instacart, Grubhub, could be others.
- [59:03]
B
Yeah, we'll find others. Ooh, TV. Yeah, I mean the streaming TV, video games, it gets included in that. Meta gets included in that. What's crazy. And you got to think deeply about society about this one. But the fact that meta with Instagram and is competing, I guess TikTok as well is competing with not just other social media, but TV video games as well. More like that usage is going down and the short form video is going up. Other thing you can include that in there. Well, I think our next one was gonna be stock exchanges. So maybe we can ask the listeners what they want first. We can do one first and then the next one second. We'll see. This one seems a little bit more fun. Stock exchanges is a Bit more academic, I think maybe a bit more educational for the listeners. But come on, those are some of the best businesses in the world. Yeah. I mean nothing really much to say. The laziest economy keeps growing. Here's one thing I will mention. I'm not speaking about this. I'm no opinion on it either way but investors should maybe think about if the immigration outflows in the United States continue, how that'll impact supply on the deliverer delivery person side. Kind of get my an Uber as well.
- [60:22]
A
I haven't seen actual like I've obviously heard a lot about the like immigration policy stuff but I haven't seen stats on like how far above trend we are relative to other years.
- [60:37]
B
We're on that. We're at net outflows.
- [60:41]
A
Interesting.
- [60:42]
B
So it could start impact what, what whatever your opinion is on that for the business of these gig economy workers. If you use them, if you use Uber, you know, it's, it's, you know what it like you know the driver, you, you just anecdotally know what the stats are after. If you've taken 100 rides like we have, I, I think that could eventually impact the business on a supply side. That's something I would look out for is maybe potential bear case which would
- [61:10]
A
ultimately results in higher delivery fees which will make people even more outraged about these delivery services.
- [61:19]
B
Or the whole country could go like Seattle which raised the minimum wage for gig economy workers TO I think 26 or $27 an hour which is great. But it cut demand off by 50% so because DoorDash added a $10 fee. Yeah,
- [61:38]
A
I get that people are principled against it, but honestly who cares.
- [61:44]
B
Good businesses. Yeah.
- [61:45]
A
New ETF ticker Lazy might already be taken by Lazy Boy.
- [61:50]
B
I don't know if Roundhill is going to scoop that one up. Yeah, with a thematic one. Let's see. We have a comment here. We don't have much time. Dang. We could have gone a long time to have a thought on Blue Owl blowing up and we'll talk about that in a slower week. Private credit someone asked about said don't sell Philip Morris or British American Tobacco. Well yeah, Philip Morris I did sell. Although it was a pretty good gain. I really hope it dips a little bit but those are some great businesses. Any maybe a little bubble watch to finish things out. We like to. One to two minutes left. Did you see Robin Hood is launching a venture fund and it's going to be traded on Robinhood.
- [62:34]
A
Like a closed end fund, right? Yeah, like a, like A venture fund available to public investors.
- [62:41]
B
Like it's a. Yeah, like a, like B REIT quote. Robin Hood is. Do you remember that? B reit.
- [62:49]
A
Yeah.
- [62:49]
B
Blackstone Gating. Gating. Yeah. Blue Owl is doing the same thing. I think they gated redemption indefinitely. And someone how to quip, are they gating management fees? Of course not. All right, here's the quote and then we'll get out of here. Robinhood is about to launch a fund focused on investing in unlisted startups, which could open up a new path for Silicon Valley to raise more funds from individual investors. Robinhood is raising $1 billion for this fund, which will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol rvi. The company said the fund will invest in top tier quote, top tier unlisted companies such as Stripe, Databricks and Ramp. Well, it's a bit, you know, it's not the end of the world, but
- [63:33]
A
I think this fund will be successful for Robin Hood. I think it will attract capital. 2%'s not insane in the VC world,
- [63:43]
B
but is that the fee?
- [63:45]
A
Yeah, I think they have like a 2% management fee, but I, I can't.
- [63:49]
B
That's not your bread and butter. It's not your bread and butter, no.
- [63:53]
A
But they of companies that have done a very good job like diversifying away from their core product. I would say they are like at the top markets. They have, I think they, they're helped by the super bowl here, but it became like a $400 million ARR business in like a few months. It was pretty impressive.
- [64:18]
B
Yeah. And this is another company philosophically along with the gambling companies and prediction markets you might have disagreements with if you're going to vote for whether these should type of things should be legal or not. But I do agree. Product has been great. They just launch a ton of new stuff and the business is fine. I'm an IBKR man, our sponsor, but likewise, you know, Robinhood, you got to say that they've done well. They've done well for sure. Yeah.
- [64:50]
A
IBKR a little, I would argue slightly higher integrity in my opinion. But I think that's going to do it. I think we're running up on time here. So thank you to everyone for tuning in. Thank you to everyone for listening. We want to remind you that Brett and I are not financial advisors. Anything we say or discuss here on this podcast is not formal advice. Recommendation. We may buy, sell or hold any of the securities discussed in this podcast. Thank you all again and we will see you next time.
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B
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