Chit Chat Stocks Podcast Summary

Episode: Alphabet's Mega Debt Offering; Oscar Health and Spotify Earnings; Value Play Or Value Trap?
Date: February 13, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (B), Brett Schafer (A)

Main Theme / Episode Overview

In this lively Power Hour episode, Ryan and Brett riff on the latest earnings reports, debate whether "cheap" stocks are value plays or value traps, and analyze massive moves in big tech finance—especially Alphabet's headline-grabbing mega bond deal. They also dive into the insurance and streaming sectors with deep takes on Oscar Health and Spotify before finishing with a Bubble Watch segment exposing the latest Ponzi scheme and answering rapid-fire listener questions. Throughout, the hosts maintain their signature blend of humor, candid reflection, and insightful investment analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Monday.com Earnings — A Tough Quarter for SaaS

Timestamp: 01:39–10:26

• Ryan’s Take: Monday.com’s earnings disappointed, with revenue up 25% but contracting operating and free cash flow margins. The company’s shift upmarket brings higher customer acquisition costs and apparently increased churn, especially among SMEs.
• Notable Quote (Ryan, 03:35):

  "Spoiler alert: bad report...the quickest stock I've ever owned to drop 50%."

• Investment Lesson: Doubling down after big drawdowns can cause long-term pain. Ryan reflects on previous experiences (like with Wix) and his "three year rule" for holding new investments.

Alphabet’s Mega Debt Offering & The Capex Arms Race

Timestamp: 11:05–21:03

• Brett’s Breakdown: Alphabet is finalizing a $30B+ global bond deal, including 100-year bonds. Despite holding $127B+ in cash, this signals plans to outspend or overspend operating cash flow for years to come—likely a power move in the AI race.
• Competitive Edge: Large tech firms like Alphabet can raise vast sums quickly, far outpacing upstarts like OpenAI.
• Notable Quote (Brett, 12:49):

  "It pays to have that conservative balance sheet for many, many years, and now in a period where they need to get aggressive, Alphabet can kind of turn that on."

• Wall Street Reaction: The market seems wary of ever-upward CapEx plans, concerned about possible overbuilding, especially after companies like Amazon signaled negative cash flow ahead.
• Big Tech Strategy: Both hosts agree raising long-term debt at favorable rates to fund infrastructure is a savvy, defensive move as the "capex arms race" continues.

Value Play or Value Trap? — Gut-Check Game

Timestamp: 21:43–39:54
Ryan tosses out a rapid-fire list of cheap-looking stocks. Brett delivers instant takes—with short justifications—on whether each will outperform the S&P 500 over the next five years.

Key Stocks Debated:

• PayPal: Value trap (“No reason the legacy PayPal needs to exist” – Brett)
• Adobe: Value play (Wide moat, 12x EBIT, healthy financials)
• Lululemon: Cautious value play (Brand facing competition but operating well)
• Molson Coors & Constellation Brands: Value plays (Stable market share, beer industry has production/distribution advantages)
• Match Group: Value trap (Tinder declining, Hinge rising, but overall cash flow stagnation)
• Gartner & Accenture: Value traps (Consulting threatened by AI, partner-heavy structures may not last)
• Memorable Exchange:
  • Brett: “You’re going to outsource your consulting to AI, meet the love of your life in person, and pay with Apple Pay.” (40:07)

Oscar Health Earnings — ACA Insurer’s Path to Profitability

Timestamp: 41:14–47:46

• Quarter Recap: The medical loss ratio rose (95% in Q4), leading to a $330M operating loss in 2025, but the company expects strong 2026 revenue ($19B projected) and positive operational earnings.
• Bull Thesis: Oscar’s efficiency gains (declining SG&A ratios), user-friendly product, and potential for significant operating leverage if margins expand.
• Notable Quote (Brett, 44:41):

  "That feels like a good setup to me...If margins can keep expanding, we likely get to $1 billion in net income. The current market is $3.6 billion. It remains cheap."

Spotify Earnings — Signs of Maturity

Timestamp: 47:46–53:25

• Financials: Revenue up 13% (constant currency), gross margin at record highs, and 47% YOY growth in operating income. Monthly active users up 11%, paid subscribers up 10%. Ad-supported business now profitable.
• Management & Fundamentals: Daniel Ek's team is praised, but both hosts see Spotify as a maturing business. Difficult to see massive future margin expansion.
• Quote (Ryan, 50:30):

  “Looking back, I drastically overestimated what they were going to be able to earn in advertising revenue relative to their subscription business.”

• Caution: Current valuation seems full; execution risks remain, especially with strong competition from YouTube Music and Apple.

Bubble Watch — The Tai Lopez Ponzi

Timestamp: 53:31–59:13

• Story: Tai Lopez, popularized via “get rich quick” YouTube ads, allegedly scammed $230M from investors by promising to revive distressed retail brands (RadioShack, Pier 1) via ecommerce. SEC alleges classic Ponzi tactics—promising improbably high fixed returns and delivering vague financials.
• Quote (Brett, 54:56):

  "Even if this wasn't a scam, why are you investing in this?"

• Cautionary Tale: Hosts lambast “golden age of fraud”—Lopez's victims included retirees lured by regular payments that evaporated once new investor money dried up.

Rapid-Fire Listener Questions

Timestamp: 59:17–64:35

• SoFi: Both like Anthony Noto’s management; Brett is interested at lower prices.
• Lyft: Executing buybacks, but faces ecosystem and competition concerns.
• Atlassian (TEAM): Cheap on some metrics, but excessive stock-based comp; even after buybacks, share count keeps rising—a major red flag.
  • Quote (Ryan, 62:44):

    “They are the biggest abusers of stock-based compensation of the big software stocks out there.”

• Fun banter throughout, especially on fintech and software stock woes.

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps & Attribution)

• Monday.com Pain:
  Ryan @ 03:35 – “Spoiler alert: bad report...the quickest stock I've ever owned to drop 50%.”
• Alphabet’s Debt Strategy:
  Brett @ 12:49 – “It pays to have that conservative balance sheet for many, many years, and now in a period where they need to get aggressive, Alphabet can kind of turn that on.”
• PayPal Skepticism:
  Brett @ 24:02 – “There is no reason the legacy PayPal company needs to exist...cross border is getting eaten by Wise, Remitly...total value trap.”
• Consolidation in Beer:
  Brett @ 32:07 – “There are production advantages to being the large scale producer. You can produce at a much lower cost if you've got distribution.”
• Oscar Health Bullishness:
  Brett @ 44:41 – “That feels like a good setup to me...If margins can keep expanding, we likely get to $1 billion in net income. The current market is $3.6 billion. It remains cheap.”
• Spotify Reality Check:
  Ryan @ 50:30 – “Looking back, I drastically overestimated what they were going to be able to earn in advertising revenue relative to their subscription business.”
• Ponzi Red Flags:
  Brett @ 55:19 – “Some people are just good at raising money. Now don't be a scam artist. Golden age of fraud. Let's not do that.”

Memorable & Lighthearted Moments

• Monday.com Losing Streak:
  Brett and Ryan joke about the “Saspocalypse” and the “quickest 50% drawdown” experience—relatable pain for any growth tech investor.
• Value Play Game:
  Brett: “This is a game designed to make me look stupid in a year. But I, I will be willing to play.”
• On Retail:
  Ryan: “Retail...I find it so hard on retail outlets...Apparel can't be better.”
• Bubble Watch Humor:
  Brett equates being ghosted by a fraudster to dating in the modern world (“You just know...things are not going well for you.” 56:49).
• Rapid-fire Q&A:
  Breezy, practical takes on SoFi, Lyft, Atlassian, and fintech swings—often referencing their substack chat room and research reports.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Monday.com Earnings Breakdown: 01:39–10:26
• Alphabet’s Mega Debt Offering: 11:05–21:03
• Value Play or Value Trap Game: 21:43–39:54
• Oscar Health Earnings: 41:14–47:46
• Spotify Earnings: 47:46–53:25
• Bubble Watch - Tai Lopez Ponzi: 53:31–59:13
• Rapid-fire Listener Questions: 59:17–64:35

Overall Tone

The mood is candid and reflective, with both hosts balancing humor and humility as they navigate tech selloffs, value traps, and the eternal quest for the next great investment. Their conversational style and willingness to own past mistakes provide practical listening for investors both new and seasoned.