Chit Chat Stocks – September 19, 2025

Episode: Can Nvidia Save Intel? Fed Rate Drop Reaction; Zuckerberg’s $600 Billion Bet; $NVDA $INTC $META
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer

Overview

This Power Hour episode of Chit Chat Stocks dives into the rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape, focusing on Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel and the broader ramifications for U.S. chip manufacturing. The hosts dissect the U.S. government’s tech strategies, the global reliance on TSMC, and the structural challenges at Intel. The show then pivots to other market-shaping news: Airbnb’s new monetization vectors, Mark Zuckerberg’s headline-grabbing CapEx announcement for Meta, recent Federal Reserve rate changes, and quick takes on emerging small caps and “fraud watch” cases in the market.

Key Discussion Points

1. Nvidia’s $5 Billion Stake in Intel: A New Era for U.S. Semiconductors?

• [01:30] Brett: Explains Nvidia’s $5B investment in Intel at $23/share, post-announcement stock reaction, and their partnership for data center CPUs.
• [03:08] Ryan: Outlines how the push to break U.S. reliance on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor) is the rationale behind these investments:

  “If they cease to exist tomorrow or were cut off... there would be probably a depression, honestly, or at least a massive recession.” ([03:18])

• [05:37] Brett: Suggests Intel split into two entities: chip design and manufacturing. This would create an “ASMC (American Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)” competitor to TSMC.
• [08:39] Brett: Notes Intel burns $10B/year in FCF, needs ~$100B to catch up, and Mag7 firms could easily bankroll this with their a combined $2.2 trillion in cash and $100B in quarterly FCF.
• [10:21] Ryan: Asks if capital alone can make Intel competitive with TSMC, expressing skepticism “Can you just throw money at this for Intel and solve it? I honestly doubt it.”
• [11:04] Brett: Highlights how Intel lags because TSMC bet big on ASML’s EUV lithography, whereas Intel fumbled the opportunity.
• [11:43] Ryan: Concerned that Big Tech may risk TSMC preference if they openly back a U.S. competitor.
• [12:32] Brett: “They gotta try. I mean this is the... There's no—I don't care about any doubts. They have to try this.”
• [13:46] Ryan/Brett: Conclude the U.S. should foster both: TSMC fabs in the U.S. and a revitalized Intel.
• [15:10] A/B: Discuss TSMC’s origins as a national champion and the need for a similar effort in the U.S.
• [16:39] Brett: Intel’s shift post-2022: AI’s preference for GPUs left Intel behind, and its foundry buildout burned cash ($40B+ FCF burnt since 2022).
• [17:23] Ryan/Brett: Financial results for Intel may be overshadowed by these headlines, but the company’s long-term future depends on successful restructuring and outside investment.
• Final Points: Both hosts see a split between Intel’s design and manufacturing as necessary and beneficial, provided new leadership acts boldly.

Notable Quotes

• “TSMC is the supplier and the backbone of most of the big technology players. They can’t supply the chips, then economic growth is going to slow and there will be a stock market crash, I guess.” — Brett [05:37]
• “If you lay with dogs, you might get fleas. When I think pretty much anyone in a business like this where they are day to day operating out of gentleman’s clubs just feels ripe for something illegal to happen, frankly.” — Ryan [60:09]

2. Airbnb Explores Promoted Listings and New Growth Vectors

• [22:55] Hosts discuss Brian Chesky’s latest conference remarks signaling greater openness to “promoted listings” (ads) on Airbnb.
  • Chesky: “I think promoted listings is really, really interesting… I think with AI, the whole paradigm of an ad has to change.” ([23:12])
• [23:49] Brett: Compares with Expedia/Booking, doubts a negative user experience if done right—sees a path for meaningful ad profits.
• [25:02] A/B: Broader “galaxy brain” ambitions from Chesky: expanding into hotels, experiences, even a social/lifestyle platform, “dozens of verticals.”
• [28:01] Ryan: Skeptical of lack of focus:

  “It felt, honestly, it felt too galaxy brained… If you read it and you just imagined that it was a college kid galaxy-brained and didn’t think it was Brian Chesky, it would read the exact same.” ([26:14])

• [28:01] Chesky’s assertion: “We want to be the first true AI-native application. We'll talk a little bit more about that. ChatGPT is not an AI-native application. It uses AI, but its interface is an interface that would have existed before AI.”
• [29:41] Brett: Cautions patience, compares Chesky’s approach to Amazon’s experiment-heavy model.
• [30:41] Brief portfolio update: Ryan added to Airbnb, both see it as potentially undervalued despite the experiments.

3. Meta’s $600 Billion Commitment: More Sizzle than Steak?

• [32:16] Zuckerberg’s “$600 billion” investment pledge at a White House dinner sparks confusion.
• [33:10] CFO Susan Lee clarifies this number includes operating expense and CapEx, making it far less dramatic—roughly $60B/year, in line with prior outlays.
• [34:23] Brett:

  “Zuck is learning from Tim Cook, the political master… It's just playing the political game.”

• [35:51] Ryan: Remains neutral on Meta prospects; Meta’s AI plans appear to be progressing, but headline numbers don’t move the investment thesis.

4. Fed Rate Drop, the Housing Market, and “Bubble Watch”

• [36:30] Hosts reflect on the Fed’s recent rate cut (now just over 4%), muted market response, and macro context.
• [37:26] Ryan: Cites Google Trends showing “help with mortgage” and “credit card help” queries now exceed 2008-crisis levels—a possible stress signal.
• [38:14] Brett: “A little bit. I would not want to be at a point in my life where I'm searching on Google for help with mortgage payment.”
• [39:28] Brett: Mortgage rates dropped slightly (~6.3%), but affordability issues persist; inventory remains a constraint.
• [42:43] Fed policy is increasingly public; minor celebration in market, but both see no fundamental change for long-term investing.

5. Small Cap of the Week: Freightos Ltd (CRGO)

• [45:10] Ryan: Highlights Freightos, a $160M cap shipping marketplace and data provider:
  • Data subscriptions for global freight benchmarks
  • B2B freight marketplace with rapid volume growth (4x in four years)
  • Gross profit margins improving, business model likened to Booking.com for shipping.
  • Marketplace volume: 89k → ~400k transactions per quarter (2021–2025)
  • Still cash-flow negative but burning less; valuation in the 7x EV/Gross Profit range.
  • On the watchlist for further research.

6. Fraud Watch: Nikola & RCI Hospitality Scandals

• [53:53] Trevor Milton (ex-Nikola) sees SEC charges dropped after presidential pardon:
  • Milton donated $1.8M to Trump shortly before the election; lawyer is brother of US Attorney General.
  • “There has got to be a rule that you cannot pardon anyone that donates to you… seems so old school, pay the judge type of behavior.” — Ryan ([55:41])
• [56:45] RCI Hospitality (gentlemen’s club rollup) hits headlines for decade-long tax fraud and auditor bribery scandal:
  • Executives “bribed a former DTF auditor… at least 13 complimentary multi day trips to Florida where he was giving up to $5,000 per day for private dances…” ([58:44])
  • Discusses inherent risks of investing in “sketchy” small-caps. Ryan: “If you lay with dogs, you might get fleas… these businesses feel ripe for something illegal to happen, frankly.” ([60:09])
  • Both agree: avoid as an investment, despite post-scandal cheapness.

7. Quick Hits: Remitly’s Subscription Push

• [62:02] Remitly rolls out “Remitly One” ($9.99/mo) with “Send Now, Pay Later” and a digital wallet, aiming to become a full-featured product for international remittance customers.
• [63:56] Ryan/Brett “like the approach,” see Remitly advancing into Wise’s turf.

8. Listener Q&A and Other Mentions

• Questions on TikTok’s required US sale (no deep dive this week; Oracle/Silverlake potential buyers)
• Innovative Food Holdings and High Tide: Not discussed in detail but highlighted as potential topics.
• [44:00] Return of “Small Cap of the Week” segment by listener request.

Notable Moments & Quotes by Timestamp

• [03:18] Ryan: “If [TSMC] cease to exist tomorrow… there would probably be a depression, honestly, or at least a massive recession.”
• [05:37] Brett: “TSMC is the supplier and the backbone of most of the big technology players.”
• [12:32] Brett: “They gotta try… There’s no—I don't care about any doubts. They have to try this.”
• [23:12] Chesky (quoted): “Promoted listings is really, really interesting…AI, the whole paradigm of an ad has to change.”
• [26:14] Ryan: “If you read it and you just imagined that it was a college kid galaxy-brained… it would read the same.”
• [34:23] Brett: “Zuck is learning from Tim Cook... just playing the political game.”
• [38:14] Brett: “I would not want to be at a point in my life where I’m searching on Google for help with mortgage payment.”
• [55:41] Ryan: “There has got to be a rule that you cannot pardon anyone that donates to you…”
• [60:09] Ryan: “If you lay with dogs, you might get fleas… just feels ripe for something illegal to happen, frankly.”

Tone & Style

• Candid, critical, and occasionally irreverent, with strong opinions about industry leadership, government policy, and the quirks of market news.
• Hosts mix deep-dive investment analysis with personal anecdotes and dry humor.

TL;DR

Semis: Nvidia’s $5B Intel investment could mark a turning point for U.S. chip independence, but structural overhauls and Big Tech support are needed for Intel to become a credible rival to TSMC.

Tech: Airbnb’s leadership is “big brained” and experimental, but risk of lost focus looms. Meta’s $600B pledge is less dramatic on closer inspection—just CapEx plus OpEx.

Macro: Fed rate drop has limited portfolio impacts; signs of consumer distress are rising (Google searches for “help with mortgage”).

Fraud: Nikola’s Trevor Milton skates thanks to connections; RCI Hospitality exemplifies sketchy small-cap risk.

Small Cap: Freightos emerges as a potentially compelling logistics marketplace with a long runway, but further vetting needed.

Remitly: Making a foray into subscription services and digital wallets, competing more directly with Wise.

For more detail, see the full Chit Chat Stocks Power Hour replay or check their newsletter for in-depth analysis.