Chit Chat Stocks – Power Hour: Coupang In Free Fall; Uber and Snap Stock Pitches; Gold + Silver All-Time Highs

Episode Date: December 19, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer
Special Guest: Aria Radnia

Episode Overview

In this “Power Hour” episode of Chit Chat Stocks, hosts Ryan and Brett are joined by investor and YouTube creator Aria Radnia for an in-depth discussion of notable events and investment theses across several major stocks and sectors. Highlights include debates about Uber’s enduring moat in the face of autonomous vehicle threats, the fallout and investment case around Coupang’s massive data breach, Snap’s new monetization initiatives, and brief pitches and commentary on Netflix, Lululemon, Turning Point Brands, as well as a rapid-fire look at market “bubble” behavior and the historic surge in gold and silver.

Meet the Guest: Aria Radnia

• Background: Research analyst, self-taught investor, runs a YouTube channel primarily focused on Uber and other stocks.
• Investment Style: Bill Ackman-inspired – “Strong moat businesses, invest at a reasonable price and hold until egregiously expensive, or a drastically better opportunity arises.” (01:15)

Uber: Dominance, Moat, and the Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Threat

Elevator Pitch for Uber

• Aria’s Take:
  • Uber is a “very dominant network effect business... It has a verb, moat… free cash flow chart just goes up and to the right… it’s been dragged down by this AV fear.” (03:04)
  • “People chalk it up as Tesla or Google (Waymo) ‘roadkill’. But this isn’t Blockbuster-Netflix or Nokia-iPhone. The fundamentals are different.” (03:04)

Addressing the Waymo Threat

Discussion Points:

• Aria:

  • The critical question is, “Where do you see AV (autonomous vehicles) five or ten years out? If you think there’ll be a monopoly Waymo/Tesla with 70–90% share, Uber is at risk of being cut out. But I believe this market will be fragmented; most AV players will need Uber’s platform to maximize utilization and revenue per car.” (04:43)

• Supply & Demand Complexity:

  • Uber’s value is in matching 9 million drivers to 190 million users globally, adjusting to massive demand swings (rush hour, events, late night). “AV-only fleets would be underutilized at many times, so Uber can supplement supply with human drivers and optimize efficiency.” (09:33)

KEY QUOTE

“In order to replicate Uber’s service, you would need to connect 9 million drivers with 190 million monthly active users across 70 countries in 10,000 cities... Massive scale issue. But even if AVs scale everywhere, Uber balances supply and demand dynamically. AV companies will need to list on Uber to maximize utilization.”
– Aria Radnia, 08:38

Alphabet’s Deep Pockets: Should Investors Worry?

• Waymo may have “infinite money” from Alphabet, but Aria and Ryan note that:
  • Google is raising $15 billion in external capital for Waymo (why not fund internally if confidence was infinite?).
  • Google has other capital priorities—mainly cloud (“hundred billion dollars of CapEx there”). (13:47)

Uber's Valuation and Margins

• Brett: EV/EBIT trailing is 37.
• Aria: Free cash flow yield is about 4%; on normalized (future) margins “30 times trailing earnings, but Uber is growing EPS 20%+ per year. For a moaty, global business, I think that’s totally fair.” (13:47)
• Ongoing margin expansion narrative: “Five years ago, operating margin was negative 50%. Now it’s about 10%. Room to improve as business matures.” (16:16)

Coupang: The Data Breach Scandal and Long-Term Investment Case

What Happened?

• Stock down >30% in a month after a major data breach involving a Chinese national employee. This is politically urgent in South Korea. Personal info of most South Koreans exposed.
• Founder not cooperating with government hearings – interpreted as smugness.

KEY QUOTE

“It exposed the personal information of virtually every citizen in South Korea... But long term I really don’t think that’s going to affect [Coupang’s] terminal value ...there isn’t a better alternative.”
– Brett Schafer, 17:06

• Wall Street Journal anecdote: Despite the breach, customers feel “it’s too convenient [to leave Coupang] and there isn’t a better alternative.” (17:06)

Business Fundamentals

• Clean balance sheet, showing operating leverage, lots of reinvestment opportunities in new categories and Taiwan.
• Trading at 3.8x trailing gross profit despite 20–25% YoY gross profit growth. “I nibbled a bit on the stock this week, maybe even more than a nibble.” (17:06)

The Hosts’ Take

• Both Ryan and Brett compare Coupang’s customer indispensability to Amazon (if Amazon leaked data, “I’d be upset, but...I need my packages. I’m still going to go to Amazon.”) (21:37)
• News likely “overblown," 24-hour cycle, “people just kind of forget about it.” (23:02)
• Coupang’s adjusted EBITDA margin on core commerce already 9%. “They say the goal is 10+%. If they say 10%+ at $40B revenue, that’s $4B operating profit; on current EV, that’s about 10x earnings.” (25:45)
• Long-term risk (“demographic bust” in Korea) dismissed as a distant problem. More pressing are growth and wallet share gains.

KEY QUOTE

“If [Coupang] wanted to, they could get to 10x earnings quite quickly. They’re not gonna show it for a while, but the value is there and it can continue to compound.”
– Brett Schafer, 25:25

Netflix: Podcast Push, Gaming, and the Warner Bros. $80B Acquisition

Podcasting and YouTube: Desperation or Innovation?

• Netflix is licensing podcasts (some from Spotify, exclusives) and launching a FIFA soccer game.

• Aria is “cautiously optimistic” but sees bigger fish to fry—namely, gaming and content scale:
  “The battle for podcasts was fought between Spotify and YouTube—Netflix feels late.” (30:08)

• Ryan: “Move to podcasting feels desperate... They’re chasing YouTube and feel like they need to catch up. [Exclusive model] didn’t really work out for Spotify—most listens are still on Apple Podcasts or YouTube.” (31:47)

• “We talked about this with Spotify—already paid $200 million to Joe Rogan, saw a small bump, but exclusive licensing was slowed. That tells me it wasn’t working out as planned.” (33:10)

Acquiring Warner Bros: Reward or Risk?

• Netflix buying Warner Bros for $82B—“If this goes through, I wouldn't be too upset… They’ve crushed the competition for 15 years. Maybe going after big catalogs is the right next step.” (36:05)
• Aria: “If they cross-sell HBO to even 25% of Netflix’s 300 million user base, that's potentially 8–10B in instant FCF boost.” (39:14)

KEY QUOTE

“You might be buying this at 8 times cash flow... Massive cross-sell potential if they execute.”
– Aria Radnia, 40:25

Valuation and Regulatory Thoughts

• Netflix EV/EBIT at 32 with a $400B market cap—Brett: “Is that where your multibaggers come from? Maybe it’ll be a good performer, but doesn’t get me going.” (37:47)
• On antitrust: “Claim that this is anti-competitive makes zero sense. It’s one of the most competitive industries.” (41:05)

Snap: Will Monetizing 'Memories' Change the Game?

New Monetization: The Storage Ultimatum

• Snap is making users pay for cloud memories above 5GB (at $2/mo), copying the iCloud model; also pushes “Snap Premium” at $5/mo.

• Aria: “If even 10% of daily actives pay, instantly flipped into profitability; at 20%, 10% operating margin positive.” (44:37)

• But: Ryan is skeptical—Snap's press release said “vast minority” is above 5GB, and this is really “monetizing nostalgia” rather than something like ongoing need (iCloud). (47:42)

• If the plan fails, at least Snap will finally offload the storage cost for lapsed users.

KEY QUOTE

“This has been an awful business for the entire existence of it on the public markets... But management doesn’t care about investor pressure—10 years of losses and they just ride it out.”
– Ryan Henderson, 50:27/50:59

Management, Culture & Skepticism

• “Evan Spiegel just doesn't care. Stock going nowhere, employees with underwater RSUs. He just rides it out.” (51:08)

Turning Point Brands (TPB): The Bull Case for America’s Nicotine Pouch Play

Listener Pitch (George):

• TPB “nearshoring” production (from India to US); can cut production cost per can from $1.30 to $0.60.
• US-most-exposed brand, fastest growth in nicotine pouch market; “the fastest growing consumer product in history.”
• 40% gross profit growth, 600% modern oral sales growth. They are raising money through an ATM post-runup.
• EV about $2B; adj EBITDA $100M+. At ~20x adjusted earnings, if growth continues it could still be cheap.

Hosts’ Take:

• Ryan: “Nicotine pouches feel like the cigarette business, decades ago... sticky, high-margin, brand-loyalty.” (55:03)
• Both hosts curious—but highlight the need for diligence on competitive advantages and sustainability.

Lululemon: Challenged US Growth, Booming China, Enter Activist Investor

Recent Earnings & China Surge

• China revenues up 40–43% YoY, now 20% of business. US comp sales at decade lows (excluding Covid).
• Activist Elliott Management now owns $1B stake; eyeing ex-Ralph Lauren exec as new CEO.

Hosts’ Skepticism

• Apparel brands need the right creative team. Activist involvement doesn’t guarantee growth in branded apparel.
  “Not a wide moat. If you don't have prestige, it's hard to get back. I think they pioneered athleisure and now have a bunch of copycats.” (62:52)

Anecdotes

• Aria: “In Toronto, Aritzia is much hotter than Lululemon right now. Great clothes, but not the same prestige as before.” (63:14)
• Christmas list “indicator”: More Viori than Lululemon showing up in host families. (62:36)

Bubble Watch and Market Sentiment

Rapidfire market oddities signal frothy conditions:

• NASDAQ to offer 23-hour trading.
• Prediction markets in IRAs (Robinhood).
• Coinbase adding stock trading.
• Gold up 68%, silver up 126% YoY—“pet rocks” triumphant.
• Meme stocks/fusion energy SPACs: “Trump Media is merging with a fusion energy company that does nothing. Every time I read a business description like that, it means nothing to me.” (67:17)
• Ridiculous tech IPOs with no revenue (e.g., Fermi: “$5.4B valuation, zero revenue.”)

Quote:

"It's time to batten down the hatches. Opportunities will present themselves later, but not sure if they're here today."
– Brett Schafer, 68:21

Notable Quotes & Moments By Timestamp

• “[Uber is] a fundamentally great business, and it’s been dragged down by this AV fear. … I’m of the belief that this will be a very fragmented [AV] market.”
  – Aria Radnia (03:04, 04:43)
• “Why is [Waymo/Google] raising outside capital? …I think there are ceilings to how much they're willing to throw at these things.”
  – Ryan Henderson (12:09)
• “Coupang’s moat is still very, very wide. …It’s just too convenient and there isn’t a better alternative.”
  – Brett Schafer citing Wall Street Journal anecdote (17:06)
• “Move to podcasting feels desperate. …They’re chasing YouTube and feel like they need to catch up.”
  – Ryan Henderson (31:47)
• “If [Snap] gets even 10% of daily actives to pay, they flip profitable.”
  – Aria Radnia (44:37)
• “Evan Spiegel just doesn’t care…10 years of losses as a public company and he just rides it out.”
  – Ryan Henderson (51:08)
• “Nicotine pouches feel like the cigarette business, decades ago... sticky, high-margin, brand loyal.”
  – Ryan Henderson (55:03)
• “I don’t know if Lululemon has the prestige it once had. …Aritzia is the hot new brand.”
  – Aria Radnia (63:14)
• “Every time I read a business description like this [bubble company], the words mean nothing to me.”
  – Ryan Henderson (67:17)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:29] Uber – Investment Case & AV Threat
• [04:43] AV Threat Deep Dive (Waymo, capital, market dynamics)
• [13:47] Uber’s Valuation & Margins
• [17:06] Coupang – Data Breach, Scandal, and Value Discussion
• [25:25] Coupang – Margin, Growth Potential, Long-Term Outlook
• [28:37] Netflix – Podcast Push, Entertainment Strategy
• [36:05] Netflix x Warner Bros. – Acquisition Analysis
• [44:37] Snap – Monetizing Memories, Bear/Bull Debate
• [53:37] Turning Point Brands – Listener Pitch on Nicotine Pouches
• [57:39] Lululemon – China Growth, Elliott Management Activism
• [64:12] Bubble Watch: Market Oddities, Gold/Silver Highs

Final Thoughts & Where to Find the Guest

• Aria Radnia’s Socials:
  “Just Aria Radnia on all socials. Mainly YouTube and Twitter.” (68:51)

Disclaimer:
Hosts and guests may hold or trade securities discussed. Nothing said is formal advice.