Chit Chat Stocks – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Ian Bezek Returns To Talk Argentinian, Chilean, and Colombian Stocks + The Return of Free Markets In Latin America?
Date: November 19, 2025
Guests: Ian Bezek (Ian’s Insider Corner), Ryan Henderson, Brett Schafer

Episode Overview

In this episode, recurring guest and Latin American markets expert Ian Bezek joins hosts Ryan Henderson and Brett Schafer to discuss investment opportunities in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia. The conversation focuses on recent political developments across the region, the impact on local stock markets, and actionable insights for foreign investors interested in Latin America’s burgeoning free-market trends.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Elections, Political Shifts, and Market Impacts

• Catalyst Role of Elections:
  Ian notes that elections in Latin America often serve as market catalysts, suddenly capturing global investor attention and driving major swings in valuations.
  Quote:
  “An election gives you a catalyst...it's the one time every four years when a hedge fund manager thinks about Colombia or thinks about Brazil or whatnot.” – Ian Bezek [01:16]

• Visibility and RE-Rating:
  Fundamentals may improve for years before the market rerates local stocks in response to political change.

2. Argentina: Political Reform & Investment Case

A. The Malay Effect

• Presidential Election & Midterms:
  Malay’s initial election created tremendous investor enthusiasm, tripling the local stock index. Despite concerns about currency stability and IMF bailouts, the recent midterms reaffirmed political support for his reforms.
  Quote:
  “He's gotten inflation down from 300% to 25%. Obviously 25% is still way too high, but big step in the right direction...” – Ian Bezek [02:38]

• Currency Challenges:
  The attempt to regulate and overvalue the peso led to pressure as market participants bet on devaluation. Ian prefers a free-floating rate and expects eventual mild devaluation.
  Quote:
  “I prefer free floating exchange rates. I do think the peso is a little bit overvalued…” – Ian Bezek [05:02]

• Structural Unemployment:
  Firing 20% of government employees has been politically contentious but indicates a radical commitment to reform.

B. Are Free Markets Here to Stay?

• Cultural Obstacles:
  Ian remains cautious, citing Argentina’s unique European-style political culture and frequent back-and-forth between market-oriented and populist approaches.
  Quote:
  “I think it's too early to declare permanent victory…” – Ian Bezek [07:39]

C. Airport Sector Spotlight: Corporacion America Airports (CAP)

• Direct Benefits from Deregulation:
  The government’s moves to break up the state airline and allow competition have boosted CAP’s business, especially in Argentina, but also diversify abroad.

  • Attractive Contracts: CAP benefits from US dollar-denominated revenues and guaranteed government returns on investment. Quote:
    “Since taking office, [Malay]’s broken up Argentina at a state run airline, ...he's let foreign airlines come in to compete.” – Ian Bezek [10:43]
  • Valuation Gaps: Despite recent jumps, CAP still trades at a significant discount to Mexican airport peers (7–8x vs. 12–15x EBITDA). Quote:
    “Does CAP deserve to trade at half the multiple of the Mexican airports? I didn't think so…” – Ian Bezek [10:43]

• Expansion Ambitions:
  CAP is aggressively seeking deals worldwide, targeting countries with new airport privatizations or required infrastructure investment (upcoming: Montenegro, Iraq), but Latin America is strategically important.

D. Other Argentine Investment Ideas

• Banks as Political Proxies:
  Grupo Galicia (GGAL) and BBAR are prime plays, with significant upside remaining if reforms hold. Quote:
  “I think the banks, the domestic banks are the clearest play...” – Ian Bezek [21:15]

3. Chile: Election Dynamics & The Economic Outlook

• Current Politics:
  The left-wing government (Boric) has lost popularity after its flagship constitutional reform was rejected by voters. The upcoming runoff is set to favor either a muscular pro-business conservative (Kast) or a libertarian, imitating Malay’s Argentine model.
  Quote:
  “So I think either way the right wing is either going to put up Kast who is pretty far right or a libertarian...” – Ian Bezek [23:42]

• Economic Leverage:
  Chile’s major exports (copper, lithium) and efficient resource reinvestment have helped diversify beyond commodities.

• Market Positioning:
  Ian prefers exposure via Banco de Chile (BCH) and the ECH ETF rather than direct mining exposure.

4. Colombia: From Political Pessimism to Market Revival

• 2013–2022 Bear Market:
  Colombian stocks suffered a prolonged downturn due to political risks and commodity price crashes.

• Socialist Presidency & Market Overreaction:
  When Colombia elected its first socialist in decades, the market priced in a worst-case scenario. However, the administration has been ineffective, and conservative resurgence is likely in upcoming elections.

• Quote:
  “It turned out [Petro is] not actually a very competent or effective leader… I was telling people like we're going to get through this. Supreme Court's independent, the central bank's independent, Congress is against him...” – Ian Bezek [35:52]

• Investment Plays:
  Besides banks (like Bancolombia), Ecopetrol becomes interesting again if a market-friendly government returns. Techno Glass is highlighted as a small-cap industrial opportunity tied to US real estate trends.

• Access Frictions for Foreign Investors:
  Limited direct broker access to Colombian stocks outside the US hurts international participation. Quote:
  “For now, none of the US or major international retail brokers have direct access to the Colombian exchange...” – Ian Bezek [33:54]

5. Currencies & Valuation Considerations

• How Ian Evaluates Currency Issues:
  A practical, local-consumption-based approach: comparing consumer prices (beer, hotels, cars) across Latin American economies to judge currency valuation.

• Minimal Currency Overhang in Stable Periods:
  Recent history shows most Latin American currencies (except Argentina) have been relatively stable in inflation-adjusted terms.
  Quote:
  “Mexico's averaged a 4% inflation rate over the past decade. Colombia's averaged a 5%...” – Ian Bezek [46:13]

• Overvalued Currency Risks:
  Stronger currencies help tame inflation but can undercut exporters, as illustrated by Argentina's 1990s crisis following Brazil’s devaluation.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [01:16] “An election gives you a catalyst...it's the one time every four years when a hedge fund manager thinks about Colombia or... Brazil...” – Ian Bezek
• [02:38] “He's gotten inflation down from 300% to 25%. Obviously 25% is still way too high, but big step in the right direction...” – Ian Bezek
• [07:39] “I think it's too early to declare permanent victory [for free markets in Argentina]...” – Ian Bezek
• [10:43] “Since taking office, [Malay]’s broken up Argentina at a state run airline, ...he's let foreign airlines come in to compete.” – Ian Bezek
• [16:01] “We can reinvest your capital for you at 16%. Like why do you want us to pay a dividend?” – CAP IR, relayed by Ian Bezek
• [21:15] “I think the banks, the domestic banks are the clearest play...” – Ian Bezek
• [35:52] “It turned out [Petro is] not actually a very competent or effective leader...” – Ian Bezek
• [46:13] “Mexico's averaged a 4% inflation rate over the past decade. Colombia's averaged a 5%...” – Ian Bezek

Key Timestamps for Main Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Event | |-----------|--------------| | 01:16 | Elections as catalysts for investment | | 02:38 | Argentina’s political shift and economic metrics | | 05:02 | Peso overvaluation, currency risk & monetary policy | | 07:39 | Prospects for sustained free market reforms in Argentina | | 10:43 | Argentina’s airport industry & CAP’s business model | | 12:29 | CAP’s expansion strategy and sector valuation | | 16:53 | Long-term outlook and shareholder value for CAP | | 19:28 | Composition of Argentina’s air traffic growth | | 21:15 | Investment case for Argentine banks | | 23:42 | Chile’s current politics and the rightward turn | | 27:29 | Positioning for Chilean elections and sector exposures | | 29:57 | Legacy banks vs. fintech disruptors (Nubank) in Colombia | | 33:54 | Hurdles to investing directly in Colombian stocks | | 35:52 | Colombian ETF performance and macro rebound | | 41:15 | Ecopetrol, Techno Glass, and other Colombian stocks | | 43:00 | Evaluating Latin American currencies as an investor | | 47:07 | Dangers of an overvalued currency to exporters | | 49:22 | Which Latin countries are next for a free-market turn? | | 51:08 | Longer-term outlook for capitalism in South America |

Conclusion & Final Thoughts

Ian Bezek mapped a compelling investment landscape, marked by political change that’s driving real upside in Latin American equities—especially in Argentina, Chile, and Colombia. While banking and airport operators stand out as accessible, high-upside plays, political reform remains the crucial catalyst. Ian’s practical approach—focusing on trusted sectors, scrutinizing local currencies, and advocating patience with reform stories—offers listeners a grounded roadmap for profiting from Latin America’s “return of free markets," while cautioning that optimism must be tempered by history and cyclicality.

To dive deeper into Ian’s regional stock picks and global investing strategies, subscribe to Ian’s Insider Corner.