Chit Chat Stocks — Detailed Episode Summary

Podcast: Chit Chat Stocks
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (A), Brett Schafer (B)
Date: January 16, 2026
Episode: "Jerome Powell Takes a Stand; Taiwan Semi's Capex Surge; Catching Software Stock Falling Knives"

Overview

In this live Power Hour episode, Ryan and Brett dive into a turbulent week in the markets, focusing on the ongoing sell-off in software stocks, major news out of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), shifting narratives in housing, and the growing influence of fiscal and political forces on investment opportunities. There’s also an exploration of international diversification, speculative bubbles, and a few quirky press releases in the tech/crypto world.

The show is a lively blend of market commentary, deep dives into company fundamentals, honest portfolio updates, and pointed skepticism about investment fads. The tone is casual, witty, and self-deprecating, with extensive data citations, personal anecdotes, and listener questions woven in.

Key Topics & Insights

1. The “Software Apocalypse”: SaaS Stocks Under Water

Timestamps: 01:15–13:34

Discussion Points

• Software stocks (especially non-mega-cap names) are down sharply over the past year.
  • Notable drawdowns (Trailing 12M): HubSpot (-51%), Atlassian (-46%), Monday.com (-41%), ServiceNow (-35%), Adobe (-26%), Salesforce, Workday, Fortinet, and others all down significantly.
  • ETFs mask pain due to weighting toward Microsoft and Palantir.
• Multiples have compressed notably, but quality in some cases remains high.
• Increasing chatter (perhaps overblown) that AI and "cloud code" will let enterprises build custom solutions and reduce dependency on packaged software vendors.
• Host perspectives:
  • Adobe now trades at ~14x EV/EBIT, active buybacks shrinking share count by 6–7% annually, high enterprise stickiness.
  • ServiceNow retains “probably the most insane customer renewal rate I’ve ever seen” (~99%) but still trades at elevated multiples (~60x cash flow minus SBC).

Quote (Ryan @ 04:47):
"Constellation Software now trades at a forward PE of less than 20... and they've had a flat share count since the beginning."

Quote (Brett @ 06:40):
"I still don’t know what ServiceNow does. I mean, never could figure it out."

Lessons and Cautions

• Even darling compounders eventually see their multiples contract—“the pitfalls of the mantra ‘pay up for quality’.”
• “Most companies, other than maybe Costco, can’t defy gravity on multiples forever.”
• AI will likely reduce pricing power for some software vendors, but the idea that everyone will in-house everything is unrealistic due to maintenance and feature complexity.

Quote (Ryan @ 08:19):
"It’s a good example of even high-quality compounder-like businesses—when someone's being grouped into that camp, that’s probably not the time to buy it."

Memorable Metaphors

• “It feels easier sitting on the sidelines going, ‘oh, I’ll nibble after it’s down 50%.’ There’s the meme of the guy all bloody next to him: ‘I’ve been here for three years, man.’” (Brett @ 24:20)

2. Housing Market & GSE (Fannie/Freddie) Policy

Timestamps: 13:34–21:06

Discussion Points

• GSEs potentially increasing allocation of mortgage-backed securities may help narrow mortgage spreads and, eventually, drive down mortgage rates.
• There’s argument that the housing market is a “coiled spring”—several years of pent-up demand as owners wait for lower rates.
• Real-world anecdotes: Austin real estate now a very clear “buyer’s market”; realtors uniformly pitching “rates are coming down” for the last several years.
• Inflation-adjusted home prices aren’t far above 2006 levels; real returns on U.S. houses haven’t been great in recent years.

Quote (Ryan @ 19:37):
"I’ve been doing some house tours down here in Austin... It’s kind of funny talking to realtors—when they show up, all of them say the same thing: 'Rates are coming down!'"

Sector Implications

• If housing activity picks up, companies like Real Brokerage could benefit (“volume is going to drive their revenue”).
• Some skepticism remains—“always those real estate bulls telling you the market’s about to unlock.”

3. Jerome Powell vs. Bill Pulte & Political Drama at the Fed

Timestamps: 21:06–31:14

Key Takeaways

• There’s a simmering, politically charged investigation (with “Bill Pulte” and Fox News personalities involved) regarding Powell and Fed operations.
• Discussion on Powell’s future—unlikely to be reappointed, and “it would make zero sense to mess around with Powell when his term is close to over.”
• Political attacks may backfire and worsen perceptions of Fed independence.
• Both hosts express sympathy for Powell’s position and fatigue.

Quote (Ryan @ 28:03):
"When I watch these videos, he seems like just exhausted... It’s a guy genuinely trying to do his job."

Market Implications

• Political dysfunction increases the risk premium for U.S. assets.
• Recession vs. Expansion in 2026? Brett leans toward "expansion" given continued fiscal stimulus and AI-driven data center buildout, but warns that U.S. valuations and fiscal risks push him to diversify internationally.

4. International Opportunities & Diversification

Timestamps: 31:14–33:47

• Ryan bought MercadoLibre (MELI) and Sea Limited (SE) as part of a push outside the U.S.; expresses uncertainty about SE’s business model.
• Local anecdotes support MercadoLibre’s stickiness in Argentina ("think of it like Venmo meets Adyen meets Clover").
• Listener mentions “the MELI, Sea Ltd., Topicus, Coupang basket” as good ways to diversify geographically.

Quote (Brett @ 32:51):
"It’s almost like Venmo meets Adyen meets Clover... If NuBank enters this market, it's going to be tough—MercadoPago is so entrenched."

5. Small Cap of the Week: TripAdvisor (& the “Good Company/Bad Company” Theme)

Timestamps: 33:53–41:19

• TripAdvisor: Legacy business (“click arbitrage” for hotels) declining, but subsidiary Viator (tours/experiences marketplace) has a hidden gem profile: 22% revenue CAGR since 2019 and on the cusp of profitability.
• Risks: Viator faces competition from Airbnb (recent forays into experiences), and TripAdvisor’s runoff is likely to accelerate.
• Valuation looks superficially cheap (5x Enterprise Value/EBITDA), but legacy headwinds could mask true cash flow.
• Spin-off/Bid Potential: Viator is an obvious potential acquisition for Airbnb.

Quote (Brett @ 38:44):
"Viator seems like a logical acquisition candidate for Airbnb. It's probably not too expensive."

6. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) CapEx Bonanza

Timestamps: 41:19–52:23

Highlights & Numbers

• Q4 operating margin: 54% (remarkable for manufacturing).
• 25% YoY revenue growth (USD); 2026 revenue growth guide: 30%.
• Five-year guidance: 25% compound annual revenue growth; guiding $52–56B in 2026 CapEx.
• The capex announcement is a tide lifting all semiconductor stocks (ASML, etc.)
• Risk: Is all this AI/data center demand forecast real? CEO C.C. Wei admits to being "very nervous" about misforecasting demand but says after personally talking “to [TSMC’s] customers and their customers,” he’s confident. "They are very rich." (Wei @ 48:54)
  • Memorable Moment: CEO candidness and slightly broken English in transcript “I also double check their financial status. They are very rich.”

Quote (C.C. Wei, via Ryan @ 48:54):
"I also double check their financial status. They are very rich."

• Massive planned U.S. investments: $250B in Arizona, driving local land prices sky-high.
• Commentary on Buffett’s quick TSMC purchase/sale—geopolitical risk remains a concern for some, but Ryan is “up 50%” on a small TSMC position.

7. Apple, Google & the AI Moat Debate

Timestamps: 53:23–58:58

• Apple pays Alphabet (Google) an estimated $1B/year to power Siri with Gemini; illustrates Apple’s lack of AI/LLM differentiation—“such a moat erosion to me, again, it’s plain as day.” (Brett @ 55:56)
• Apple once innovated with Siri but fell far behind and now must rent the best tech from others.
• If AI becomes the new “base-level operating system,” Alphabet’s leverage/strategic value only increases.
• The historic “platform power” of the iPhone may be eroding.

Quote (Brett @ 55:56):
"Now Alphabet has much better negotiating leverage. That’s SUCH a moat erosion to me—it’s plain as day."

8. Meta’s Bubble Watch: The AI Data Center “Arms Race”

Timestamps: 58:58–61:17

• Mark Zuckerberg’s latest announcement: Meta Compute will invest “tens of gigawatts this decade, and hundreds of gigawatts or more over time”—a staggering energy and capex number, comparable to whole nations' electricity usage.
• Both hosts express skepticism—“it just feels like a who-can-say-the-biggest-number battle and there’s no timeline” (Ryan @ 60:04).
• If overbuilt, could lead to a Meta cloud product as a fallback.
• General theme: All big tech ramping up, but few (except Google) appear to have the cloud/AI infrastructure and monetization advantage.

9. Speculative Excess & Meme Stock Mania

Timestamps: 62:08–66:43

• Bit Mine Immersion Technologies invests $200M in “Beast Industries” (Mr. Beast's company), with promises to integrate DeFi into an entertainment platform—an example of speculative fervor in crypto/AI stocks.
• Bit Mine trades below NAV within a year of going public.
• Fiscal AI screener: “71 companies with price/sales above 100, outside of biotech.” (Brett @ 66:07)

Quote (Ryan @ 65:26):
"If you’re a business that technically does nothing... you might as well lean into it. Do the craziest thing you can—if your business is being a meme stock, take it up a notch."

10. Honorable Mentions/Quick Hits

Timestamps: variable

• Brief jabs at the recurring failures of IEC-style “good company/bad company” spinoffs (TripAdvisor, Match, etc.).
• Discussion of Grab and Southeast Asia e-commerce as an international diversification opportunity.
• Both hosts recommend regular self-audits on portfolio and diversification.

Notable Quotes

• On Software Cyclicality:

  "Even the high quality compounder-like businesses—when someone's being grouped into that camp, that's probably not the time to buy it."
  — Ryan (08:19)

• On Market Timing:

  "It feels easier sitting on the sidelines going, 'oh, I'll nibble after it’s down 50%.' There’s the meme of the guy all bloody next to him: 'I've been here for three years, man.'"
  — Brett (24:20)

• On Apple/Google & AI:

  "Now Alphabet has much better negotiating leverage. That’s such a moat erosion to me—again, it's plain as day."
  — Brett (55:56)

• On the AI Data Center Bubble:

  "It just feels like a who-can-say-the-biggest-number battle and there’s no timeline..."
  — Ryan (60:04)

• On Speculation:

  "If you're a business that technically does nothing... you might as well lean into it. Do the craziest thing you can—if your business is being a meme stock, take it up a notch."
  — Ryan (65:26)

Key Timestamps

• 01:15 — Start of Software Selloff discussion
• 04:47 — Constellation Software value & case for a dedicated guest
• 13:34 — Housing market, GSEs, rate/mortgage impacts
• 21:06 — Pal v. Pulte (Fed politics), Powell’s future
• 31:14 — International diversification & MercadoLibre/Sea Ltd.
• 33:53 — TripAdvisor/Viator, hidden gem & spin-off speculation
• 41:19 — TSMC earnings, capex, semiconductor outlook
• 53:23 — Apple pays for Gemini, Siri’s lost edge
• 58:58 — Meta Compute, the data center/AI buildout “bubble”
• 62:08 — Meme stock/crypto bubble, Bit Mine’s Mr. Beast deal

Flow, Tone, and Takeaways

The hosts offer an engaging, data-driven, and honest take on a whirlwind week in investing. They combine humor, skepticism, and deep dives into business models and valuation. The show avoids hype, points out market excess, and repeatedly reminds listeners that narratives are cyclic, sentiment is fickle, and diversification—especially geographically—is essential.