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This episode is presented by Interactive Brokers. You research your investments, but did you research your broker? In 2025, IBKR retail clients averaged a 19.2% return, beating the S&P 500's 17.9% over time, the broker you choose makes a difference. If you want to learn why, head on over to ibkr.com 2025. More on this later in the show. Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks, the podcast that helps you discover your next great investment. I'm one of your hosts, Ryan Henderson, and I am joined as always by the one and only Brett Schaefer. This is our weekly Power Hour episode where we talk all things financial markets. We do these live on Thursdays at 5pm Eastern Time. We also put them on the podcast players after the fact so you can listen there as well. But if you ever want to ask us questions while the episode is going, feel free to head over to YouTube, look up chitchat stocks and ask us questions there. We have a full slate today. Markets are in turmoil. Should we sound the alarm? Brett, are we.
B
I'm trying to jinx it. I know we're only in a couple. I don't even think we're in a 5% drawdown. But with where oil is going, we can do the CNBC cry on markets in turmoil, hopefully jinx things because for anyone that doesn't know, CNBC has that. They put out markets of turmoil whenever there's something crazy like the oil price going on right now or a bear market. And statistically, I believe some quant funds have run this or maybe some researchers. If you buy on the day after markets in turmoil, you outperform the market. Just buy the S P500 that day and usually do better, which it makes sense, you know, usually the stocks are down when that's happening. But we'll try to jinx it, get a little panic, get a little macro. But we also have what Adobe earnings. Your favorite stock, right? The one that treats you well. Really, really easy to sleep well at night. Amazon bond offering. We're revisiting a small cap of the week and of course we have a bubble watch. I had to utilize AI to summarize exactly everything Nvidia has been doing in the last seven days and it's quite a lot. We have some listing questions as well. So I think.
A
And Oracle gotta talk. Oracle.
B
Oracle. Can't forget Oracle. Mr. Backlog. I think I should start calling them the why? Why don't we come with one of those? Oracle or Adobe, you have those, I think listeners would be interested.
A
Well, why don't we start with Adobe for any of the live listeners? Because they reported 45 minutes ago and the numbers looked really good across the board, honestly. Revenue grew 12%. I believe it was 13% in constant currency, which is an acceleration. That's the fastest revenue growth that they've seen in I think more than three years. Digital media and Digital experience are basically growing at the same rate. Both growing 13%. Adjusted earnings per share grew 19%. Both of those beat estimates Guidance was relatively good. I don't have the exact percentage in front of me, but again higher than expectations. Remaining performance obligations were up 26% year over year and they bought back $2.5 billion worth of shares. I would have hoped, I think for a little more, honestly, given where they're at and how healthy their balance sheet. But nevertheless, I mean, it is, they seem to be kind of consistent at this point. It seems like they're sticking to like 10 billion or so a year in buybacks.
B
And at the current share price, what, you know, obviously there's some SPC as well. How much could they take out per like, what's the rate of decline? 4%, 6%, 8%? I feel like that's one of the most important things.
A
Yeah, it's a little hard to tell because it's been all over the place on recent quarters. I mean, one quarter they had 4 billion, like I think 2/4 ago they bought back $4 billion worth of stock. Now it's 2 1/2 billion in this quarter. If they stick to 2 1/2 billion at the current market cap, I would assume they're reducing 2 billion, 2 1/2 billion a quarter. It's probably around 4 to 5% share annual share count reduction, not bad. But there's also, I think, some weird vesting stuff going on and potentially the repricing or the like a new issuances of options. That's something I'm going to keep track of and having to like top those off for employees. I'm curious what happens there. But the big news, I mean, because they beat the top line, beat the bottom line, beat guidance as CEO is stepping down after 18 years. Shantanu, Orion I'm sorry if I'm mispronouncing that he's had a good run for 18 years. I mean, by, by most measures, but this couldn't come at a worse time. I think given all the uncertainty around the business for him to be stepping down. They also didn't name a successor.
B
So they're like, oh, Come on guys, that's your job. That's the one job of the board of directors.
A
Either he's stepping down voluntarily or they just announced this prematurely, but they literally said CEO's going to step down and the CEO is going to help the board find a new CEO. And it's like, why wouldn't you just delay this announcement until you found a new one?
B
Don't you know that shareholders are suffering? Yeah, that's. It's tough timing, especially with the narrative being so tough on them right now. What did you think of the quarter? Like you're a shareholder. I know it's not your largest position, but it's fairly large. Hold sell, buying more. What are your initial thoughts?
A
It's such a noisy one where it honestly has deterred me from making a really large position because I have moments for myself where I think, wow, this is at the risk of AI disruption. But honestly, the results get better and better every quarter. I mean text to image and text to video models have, you know, they've been around at this point for three years and Adobe has grown every single quarter since ads and they, it doesn't seem to be them just purely raising prices. And if it was them purely raising prices, with how fast AI is moving, I think people would have looked a different direction if they could. So I think the quarter was good if you just looked. I keep thinking this, if narratives didn't exist and you had no idea what this business was and I said, look, it's generated 30% returns on invested capital over the last decade. It has basically break even net cash on the balance sheet and it's trading at a 10% free cash flow yield. You'd probably. But that's a very rare occurrence. But the narrative is so, so bad for them that you kind of can't help but be a little wary. I thought the quarter was good. It's one of those where you read it, you read the report, you're like, oh, here we go, nice. Then you check the stock and you're blown away. And granted, I didn't see the CEO was stepping down by the time after I'd read the report. But yeah, I was surprised.
B
Well, yeah, the stock is down after hours. Hey, good thing about them is if you're not someone that has to go, I want this stock to do well this quarter. If it's a three to five year time horizon, the lower it goes, the better the buyback is going to look. And it's either going to work or it's not. Over the next few years, there's probably going to be quarters like this or just any uncertainty around the AI narrative because as we talked about before, even each quarter they can put up good numbers. But then people say next quarter everything's going to fall off a cliff. And do you want to talk any other thoughts, Ryan, before we move on to maybe the least AI at risk company I've ever that we follow? Dollar General, sexy name.
A
No. I don't know what it's going to take for the tide to turn on Adobe. We'll see. But let's, let's shift gears a little bit. Let's talk Dollar General.
B
All right. Well, they reported this morning they had a comp store sales growth accelerate to 4%. Now, that's nice for the business, but you look at Dollar General and when people are worried about consumer weakness in the economy and then Dollar General is accelerating comp store sales growth, that's usually a sign that maybe there's trade down because usually you get people trading down from, for example, Walmart down to Dollar General, something like that. Ryan's pulling up some charts here from fiscally. I actually have it on operating margin as well, but maybe Ryan can pull it up at the same time they're guiding for 2% to 3% comp store sales growth in 2026. What are you pulling up there, Ryan? The operating margin? Yeah. So they have had a very tough time basically because one, they've been attacked by temu, they've been attacked by Walmart expanding a little bit into more rural areas. And really during say three to five years ago, they underinvested in their stores and the store quality got a lot worse. They lost a little bit of traffic. Their pricing wasn't as good. I would if anyone wants full details on the business and someone who comes in much closer, I'd look at our friend Alex Morris at TSOH Investing Research. He covers them quite well and has for a long time. But really the biggest thing for the stock is generally historically. And Ryan, I think you probably can even go farther back on the timeline there to show that their operating margin was stable around what is that, like 7 to 9%, even if you exclude the pandemic where they had a nice
A
little nine, nine to ten. I can let's go 20 years, see what it's at.
B
It's dropped back down to. It dropped at its lowest, kind of like 3 to 4, more like 4%. Now we're seeing a tick up in 2025, a tick up in Q4. Their comp store sales growth is Looking a lot better. And if you look at them, they're EV to EBIT or PE or something like that. We can maybe I can try to pull it up right now. Stock didn't react that well after hours. It's fairly cheap. Let me. I think EV to EBIT will work. If you look at them EV to EBIT, it's 19. You kind of go, ah, that's not that cheap. But if you think margins can recover, this maybe could be a good counter cyclical for someone's portfolio. They do well through usually all market environments. They do well in economic downturns. And the company is a serial repurchaser of stock. We can look up maybe their shares outstanding on fiscal AI. It's down, I mean, over the last 10 years pretty, pretty nicely, I think. Yeah, 3% decline. You know, hey, this is one to keep track of. I like the business. It's fun to look at them for a macroeconomic indicator. And yeah, I thought it was an overall solid earnings report.
A
I want to show you one piece of data I found on Dollar General and get your thoughts here. So around store count,
B
you're building that
A
little custom metric, this one, I think they report it. Okay. Yeah, yeah. So store increase per year is at their lowest. They added 299 stores this year, which is their lowest, I think in more than a decade. Is this just a pure refocus on existing stores?
B
Yes, they're doing a lot of remodels. I think they're doing 4,000, maybe 2,000 remodels. I'll pull up the actual data here right now in 2026 and I'll look up what they're guiding for their actual store count growth. Let's pull this up right now and try to be quick. Okay. So yeah, they're guiding for 2 to 3% com store sales growth. They are planning to execute approximately 4700 real estate projects opening 450 new stores in the United States. So a little bit of an acceleration. They're getting back to that growth and then 10 stores in Mexico. I guess maybe that could be a nice future market to expand into. Although it's a very, very competitive convenience store sector down south. But they're remodeling 2,000 stores. Under these, they have Project Renovate and project Elevate. And that's probably just some consultant stuff. They're remodeling over 4,000 stores. So, yeah, I think you're right there. The focus is more on existing locations driving com store sales growth and getting that margin back because they have, I think what, 20,000 stores. Like you're not going to have that many. You can't have an infinite amount of stores.
A
Yeah, it's not shocking that they might be at closer to market saturation today than they were 10 years ago.
B
Okay, can we talk about markets and turmoil? The oil, the oil price. People are freaking out about this. Ryan, you're probably a straight of Hormuz expert as we speak. Correct. You just found out that what, what it is this week and already I'm already an expert. Yeah, the. I guess it's still shut. Maybe by tomorrow morning it'll be open. I actually have no idea. But what I thought was interesting and maybe I can, Ryan, can share this while I'm talking is what the price of oil has done in the past really week, but the past month. So in anticipation of the kind of build up for the attack feel, I guess probably we're reading through the tea leaves there. Price of oil ticked up. It was hovering around the say 50 to 65 range then when this happened and the straight closed, I mean we saw in one day at least intraday, the highest, I think one of the largest moves ever in recorded history for the price of oil, up from like 80 to 120. Now it's come back down, but it's inching back up. Every day it's closed, it's inching back up to a hundred dollars. And I don't know, I guess you're in a state now, Ryan, where the price of gas isn't too destructive to your wallet, but we could see some rising prices there. And I think really what's interesting is that inflation, and again, this is stuff that we're usually not experts on. We've seen the inflation numbers come in. They're getting closer to 2%. It seems pretty tame, but this could be the exact moment where you have oil prices spike, commodity prices are spiking, such as silver, and inflation starts kicking up again, which could be tough.
A
Yeah, it's funny how much people
B
maybe
A
don't pay attention to some of the stuff going on in, you know, in the Middle east until all of a sudden it's like 20 cents more expensive at the gas pump.
B
Yeah, they don't care. Yeah, we can see in our home state. I saw, I saw an estimate. I think I've had AI make this estimate. Due to the new gas tax in our home state of Washington, if the price of oil stays elevated $150, the price of gas per gallon in state of Washington will be seven, seven dollars if it goes up to 150.
A
Yeah, that's expensive.
B
People would be very upset.
A
I mean it's. Yeah, it's expensive relative to its history here in Texas as well, but still cheap relative to some other states. I don't know what can possibly like I have no take here. I guess kudos to the people that have thought oil prices are going to go up for the last three years. I guess this is vindication.
B
Greg Abel Vindicate. Vindicated.
A
The I saw, I think someone one of the press secretaries or whatever like this is just temporary. Like don't worry about the gas prices. It's temporary. Everything's temporary enough for me, you know.
B
Yeah. Well we've also been told that higher gas prices are good for the country because. Because it's going to make a lot of money, which is technically true. But I don't think regular people are going to be too happy that Occidental Petroleum is printing money. The where was I going to go with this? So it's we're seeing what markets and turmoil headlines ish from people a lot of panic. Do you want to guess as of the close today, Thursday March 12 what the S&P 500 is down from all time highs? Five and a half percent, 4.2%. Wow.
A
All time highs for either Covid or.
B
Yeah, it's. Well, our portfolios are a little more volatile sometimes if you run a little concentrated, maybe a little less exposure a little more. A little more software exposure. But either this is a Covid type moment where people are underestimating everything or it things I've heard that I think is interesting and makes a lot of sense is that compared to the 70s when oil just totally destroyed the economy when it went through the roof with the Arab oil embargo is now the US economy and many other economies are less tied to petroleum inputs as a part of the economy, if you kind of get what I'm saying. So it's. It's going to have less of an impact where x percent previously was going to be have an inflationary impact from the price of gasoline or the price of oil or petrochemical products versus now it's a lot smaller percentage of the economy versus just because of renewables, information services, stuff like that. You research your investments, you analyze markets, you manage risk. But did you research your broker? In 2025 IBKR clients outperformed the S&P 500 retail clients averaged 19.2% while hedge fund clients averaged 28.91% compared to the indexes 17.9%. IBKR's lower trading costs, competitive rates, efficient execution, and access to more than 160 global markets helps investors keep more of what they earn and put more capital to work. Over time, the brokerage you choose makes the difference. If you care about performance, find out why the best informed investors choose. Interactive brokers@ibkr.com 2025 Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC.
A
Yeah, it makes sense. Maybe we can talk about a. Honestly, a potential beneficiary of all this, an electric vehicle maker.
B
Sure. Okay, this is.
A
I never thought about this headline. Yeah, I know you're cringing reading this, but I just want to talk about it real quick.
B
This is an old flame of mine. Yeah. Back when I was like 20.
A
So I'm going to say a name of a company. Those of you that have been around for five years in markets may get the chills or cringe, but I have a headline here. Is Nio actually investable? I never thought I'd be saying this, but I saw some numbers or saw some metrics on fiscal. I was just browsing companies that reported earnings. NIO was one of them. And there was some things that kind of stood out to me. So first off, for those that don't know, Nio is a Chinese electric vehicle maker that started with apparently a focus on premium vehicles. They went public in 2017. Market cap then at IPO was US$11 billion. Within two years, the company had a $1 billion market cap. So 90% drawdown. Fast forward to 2021. And with all the other bubble stocks, Nio got caught up in that $95 billion market cap by, I think, January of 2021. Fast forward another two years and we had a, I believe, another 95% drawdown. So just an absolute roller coaster of a stock. Truly, Brett, maybe you can share the stock price on the overview page too and just show all time. It's now had two separate 90% drawdowns. But last year the company released the Envo brand, which is a cheaper mass market vehicle that's intended to compete with Tesla Model Y. Since that point, deliveries have soared. They delivered 125,000 vehicles last quarter, which is up, I think 70 plus percent year over year. If you go segments, KPIs, Brett, deliveries should be in there too.
B
I got it there right now. You should see.
A
Okay, yeah, 124, 125,000 vehicles. Massive quarter. This was also their first quarter ever of positive GAAP. Well, I don't know if they abide by GAAP. Positive IFRS, operating income.
B
Yeah. Hong Kong numbers, whatever that is.
A
Yes. So, and apparently this is just me doing some quick research on it. They also pioneered this battery as a service strategy where customers can buy the car without the battery, lowering the upfront cost and instead paying a monthly subscription to swap batteries. And then they have, like, 3,400 power swap stations, which I guess allows people to, like, automatically swap out a battery or whatever.
B
Chinese market's so ruthlessly competitive.
A
Yeah. So my question here is you've got a company that is delivering a legitimate amount of vehicles at this point. You're, I think maybe 200, 300,000 over the last 12 months. They've finally. I don't know if this is sustainable, but they finally turned the corner to profitability. Is there potential to take a flyer on this? Could this be like a byd, like, competitor?
B
That's a tough question. I remember looking at Neo and seeing a thousand page 20F. Not an exaggeration. So is there some hair in this situation? Potentially, you know, what, what, what's their. What did they generate last quarter? 115 million. I'm assuming that's US dollars in operating income. What's. What's our market cap?
A
I think it's like 11 billion today.
B
Well, it's gone up a little bit. I'm seeing 14 now. What's our sales ratio one times? Yeah, it feels reasonable for an automaker. Doesn't feel cheap here. The Chinese EV market is just so damn competitive. It's so competitive. I don't know how you can choose a winner as a foreigner.
A
Yeah, here's my thing. If these vehicles were actually offered in the United States, I think they dominate. They would dominate.
B
BYD would dominate. They're cheap. They're very cheap and good.
A
I mean, you could put massive tariffs on them. They'd still be cheaper than probably the cheapest Teslas that are available.
B
They have over 100% tariffs, Ryan. So they made it. So it's a little. Yeah,
A
there you go. I honestly think these would be a massive success in the United States market. Just. Even if people have never seen the brand, they will literally see the price. I saw the BYDs being advertised in Mexico and I went and just did, like, the quick conversion. I was blown away by the price of the vehicles. It was astounding.
B
Yeah, it's about $10,000 or something that Latin America, you're going to have a little cheaper price. But BYD is quite popular in Latin America, especially just because pricing, power, affordability, you know, is more. More of A concern compared to the United States on average. Yeah. You know. Well, Ryan is. It's not very patriotic of you.
A
True. I own a Toyota, so. Yeah, I don't know if that's patriotic to begin with.
B
The. It's. I don't know what to think. I think the, the car market's too hard. It's just another example. Who could have predicted this? Not me.
A
It is. Yeah.
B
What's.
A
At the end of the day, it's still a car company.
B
The. Let's.
A
I do want to talk Oracle because this I, I guess haven't kept up with the story, this Oracle story that much until now. But this, they've gone full scorched earth like.
B
And where have you been? Right? You've been, you've been at. Okay, we've been talking about. I've been, I've been harping on this drum for the last year.
A
I don't think I fully processed how much of a complete 180this was from their existing business model. Like I thought maybe there was some element where it's just them servicing their own business, they're generating their own demand, but it's literally just a totally different business that they're going into. So I'm going to give maybe a quick explainer synopsis on what has happened because some of these numbers have blown my mind. So for anyone that doesn't know Oracle probably I think sort of a household name but traditionally very wide moat legacy software business. Their ERP solutions are really mission critical in most enterprises by almost any measuring stick that like core software business has been pretty good. It's been I think 35% cash free cash flow margins for a decade.
B
Yeah, I mean and they do databases as I want to mention to you, had it written down in the notes. The a great anecdote for their competitive advantage is that Amazon with AWS has tried to be a competitor to them for a long time and I believe it took them something on the order of 15 years after AWS was founded with their competing products mind you, to completely migrate from Oracle. So direct competitor took 15 years to get rid of their products. That's how sticky it can be.
A
Yeah, I did not realize that. I guess I think about two years ago is when this shift started, maybe a little more. They started building this infrastructure as a service business which unless I'm missing something, there's no synergies. Not really. Like maybe they can use some of their own compute or whatever. But for the by and large they're literally just building data centers and offering Compute to Primarily these frontier AI labs. 80% I think of the workloads or compute capacity is given to AI workloads versus like traditional compute. CapEx, as you can imagine has ballooned $48 billion in CapEx over the last 12 months for Oracle. Now I know we're in the age of saying massive numbers for capex and pretending it's not a big deal. But to put this in perspective, this Capital Light software company, for the longest time Capital Light is now spending more than Taiwan Semiconductor on capex. That is last quarter they spent 108% of their revenue on capex. That number was staggering to me. Free cash flow for the first time in 20 years has gone negative to the tune of $25 billion. And the returns on all this is kind of just a massive question mark. So here's a quote from the conference call from I guess two days ago says when you think about the overall profitability of these AI data centers, there's two pieces. One is, you know, how profitable is it? Purely on the accelerators themselves, we gave guidance in the past that we see, you know, gross margin in the 30 to 40% range on that. That continues to hold for us as we continue to get better and better at running these data centers, delivering them more cheaply, optimizing the amount of cost for networking and hardware spend as well as power. We see that continuing to incrementally improve. So 30% gross margins on these data centers. No, I've got no clue what the operating margins are, but this is like.
B
Yeah, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. AWS has 35% operating margins, so you can see why there's been commentary from AWS management and probably Amazon, you know, Andy Chassis, that they've lost contracts to Oracle because they're severely underpricing it. Yeah. And they talk about, they talk about
A
being the cheapest competitor or the cheapest
B
player and you could be a grocery store. Margins, I mean, well, maybe you'll have 2,5% operating margin. Let's see what happens. You have to run a large sales force for these businesses. You're going to be comping what's the standard, like 10 to 15% of sales. So knock that off right away. Like that's coming down to 20%. And then you have product development costs. How much left? There's a reason AWS, Azure and Google Cloud price at 70% gross margin because that's what you need to clear to get a decent hurdle right there.
A
Yeah, and I mean the other thing is like, okay, they burned $25 billion this year. So they've raised a bunch of debt. I think added like $50 something billion dollars in total debt over the last four quarters.
B
I'm going to pull up the net debt to EBITDA right now. Ryan, I was prepping it for you.
A
The. Yeah, it's ballooned. What happens if there's delays? Like they, they, they really try to focus on how fast they're building these things. But if anyone has ever, I don't know, existed in society, you know that they tend to be construction delays with almost anything. What happens, I mean they, they literally have a hole in the ground in the middle of Texas is one of their markets that cash is tied to and they got to pay off the debt in the meantime and they're doing it on sort of speculative demand trends.
B
So
A
like I did not realize that they are literally risking everything. It's insane.
B
And at the same time, Larry Ellison has to potentially backstop this Paramount merger with Warner Brothers Discovery. That is a whole interesting wrench getting thrown in the mix. I think the chart you have of capex versus revenue at over 100%. That is an astounding figure. And if that continues well, they better be happy that Anthropic and OpenAI raised money because I think. What did Anthropic raise? 30 at OpenAI at 100 billion. Okay, that's good clearance. They're doing deals with some of these, the computer chip makers, specifically Nvidia, where the computer chips themselves are somehow financed, where it's going to help with cash flow. They claim this. We'll see how that looks on the actual cash flow statement coming up in the next few years. But I think what they need to be praying for is Anthropic and OpenAI need to be able to raise over what? What do you think? 150 billion cum together 200 billion from their IPOs. They need to be raising a ton of cash before the IPOs to be able to meet these demands because they have this backlog. But so what you can be calling yourself Mr. Backlog all day. That should be like back in the day a couple years ago when we talk about Autodesk all the time, that's what they would talk about. I don't care what is your income statement and what does your cash flow actually look like?
A
Two things. One, this has gone from a capital a deep moat business to quite literally a construction company almost. I mean at this point they are spending all of their money.
B
They're Equinix.
A
Yeah, but the other part is what, I mean, what do you think the chances are that in five years aws, Azure and Google Cloud are picking up data centers at half the cost it would have taken to build and they're just retrofitting them for their own specs?
B
Yeah, let's not talk about Core, Weaver, Nebius, those guys are tossed in the mix as well. I'm probably forgetting a few names there. Yeah, it's extremely risky. We'll see what happens. I would not touch this stock. It seems like, I mean it's in a 50% drawdown but, but we're still at a market cap of $470 billion revenue. EV to sales, I guess, which does include that debt. They have over $100 billion in debt now. EV to sales 9 what's your gross margin and operating margin going to slump to if you're competing with these cloud providers by just underpricing them, you think you're going to deserve an EV to sales of 9. Sure, your revenue is going to grow, but it feels incredibly risky.
A
It was already competitive. Like from what I understand, Google, Cloud, aws, Azure, they were already pretty competitive with each other. The and I'm sure they're not new to this. I mean they've all been doing this for the better part of a decade now. So it would surprise me if Oracle has found some like new method for delivering compute at a fraction of the cost. I I here's my question to you. Is this the biggest risk a big tech company, the biggest single risk or bet a big tech company has ever taken? Like I've never seen a company bet the entire farm on a business model pivot.
B
Let's see what Meta does in the next few years. Let's see what Amazon does because their income statements and cash flow statements are looking quite, quite riskier. But for the time being, yes, I think you can totally say that. And again, given the already levered nature of the balance sheet, given the fact that Larry Ellison has to deal with this Paramount buyout potentially being a backstop there, like things could get very, very hairy. There's a lot of data. Let's just hope that people can keep raising money. That's for sure. And I don't want to touch it at all. Before we move on, Ryan, we use a lot of fiscal AI charts here. Again, they're our sponsor. Use our link Fiscal AI chitchat in the show notes, Go check them out, get a 15% discount. What's a new product that you guys have launched recently? This query thing? Tell the listeners anything new that people
A
can check out cross Document search which is kind of a nice to have if you're looking for references of a certain keyword across multiple companies and multiple documents. And the other one that we're working on here, maybe I'm teasing this here but annotations should be coming out shortly
B
for that's my recommendation. Right. It's been two years of me asking you about it.
A
Also transcript annotations, filing annotations, you can highlight, store all that. Kind of be a nice note keeping place for qualitative research as well.
B
Beautiful, beautiful. All right, check that out in the show notes why don't before we go on to some small cap of the week and a little I'd say panic, I guess stock collapse in the great white North. Let's talk about the Amazon bond sale. Maybe as a relationship to Oracle here they raised, from what I saw there was some conflicting numbers. I guess maybe AI is just making it so hard to find reliable news these days. They raised $37 billion in debt to fund expansion. They're going cash flow negative this year and I actually will say I have a insider source, quote unquote feel the work of the company that say that Blue Origin is overpaying and stealing talent from them which I just think is. It's just bezos on Bezos crime. What are we doing here From Amazon themselves. Yeah, yeah. I would be so frustrating if I was a shareholder. Look, yeah Blue Origin, we're going to double your salary at Steely from Amazon. That kind of besides the point but if your basis like you're stealing from yourself, whatever. If we look at their cash flow, it's gone. Was it negative last quarter? I can look up on fiscal right
A
now but no, don't believe so it's forecast.
B
I'll pull it up. Last quarter was positive I guess 15 billion but the 2 before that it was yeah, if we go last 12 months it was barely positive I think is this. Yeah, I think this is right. Either way it's going to probably go cash flow negative in 2026 free cash flow negative because if you look at their operating cash flow, let's see cash from operations last 12 months is like what 140 billion. But they're guiding for $200 billion in capex. So even if they grow a little bit on the operating cash flow line, you know there's going to be. They're going to have negative cash flow. They're raising debt here. I think you look at them and you compare them to Oracle. Oracle's already four times debt to EBIT net debt to ebitda. Amazon has generally had a much cleaner balance sheet. There's probably, and maybe you can counter this if you don't, if you don't agree, a lot more room for Amazon to lever up its balance sheet to expand its AWS business if they want and keep spending $200 billion a year.
A
Yeah, it's funny, I look at Amazon taking debt out to finance infrastructure build out as like a positive and I look at it for Oracle and think it makes no sense.
B
Well, they're not spending 100% of revenue on CapEx and they're not already four times leverage.
A
Yeah, the other part is they've gone through these cycles before and they, I mean they've been building AWS and forecasting demand for literally 20 years, maybe more. So I think they've built up a little more trust. And the other part is you can almost see a direct correlation. I think they added, I remember looking at this the other day, $10.2 billion in AWS annual recurring revenue last quarter alone. And Andy Jassy has said as fast as we're building it, we are booking it even faster. So I, I get kind of optimistic thinking about AWS expanding at an even faster rate. But part of that is because I know the economics. I mean it's 35% operating margins and it's sticky and they are not just advertising themselves with the low cost provider. So I would say I take that as sort of positive news.
B
Yeah, they're cost disciplined. They came and we don't have the details of the contract so this is a bit of speculation on my part but they went to OpenAI and it took a long time to close that deal. For the latest funding round I would assume they got better terms than Oracle did. That's speculation on my part but we'll see. Yeah, they are much more cost disciplined. Okay, last one on levered up balance sheets. This is a listener question. People use the substack chat to have these. There's been a lot of good discussion there at. I asked a question today. Hey, who's. What stocks are people buying this week with some of the dips there. There's a fascinating discussions there but here's one that people wanted to discuss on the show. $50 billion buyback from Salesforce. They're leveraging their balance sheet to acquire shares. Do you think risky or reasonable? Now I'm going to look and confirm what their balance sheet looks like before this but I feel like if they're at a 6,7% free cash flow and they Expect to grow revenue and 5 to 10% a year. This is a fine move. You have an extremely durable operation.
A
Yeah, my gut's. Without knowing exactly what sort of debt to EBITDA ratios or debt to cash flow that $50 billion bond or offering presents, my gut says it's a good move. I mean it's extremely predictable, very cash generative and they have shown before that they can cut costs and still manage.
B
They wrote about $15 billion at the end of January total debt. Their earnings are higher than that I think.
A
So I'm totally fine with, I'm totally fine with this move. I actually think it's something to be optimistic about if you're a shareholder. The. I mean we've seen it. I think the narrative has kind of died about, or at least this died down a little bit around like AI disrupting CRMs and stuff. And you look at Slack and Salesforce and it's very embedded in a lot of these, a lot of these companies that are supposedly doing the disrupting. So I think it's a very predictable business. I do think. I don't know why I'm blanking on his name here. The. What's the Benioff? I think he's a bit of a goofball and could run things a little, a little more with a little more cost sensitivity. But he likes to hang out with celebrities and if he wants to pull the operating leverage lever, he certainly can.
B
Yeah, I hope they do. I hope they do. I wouldn't be concerned with that. I think for individual investors there's a lot of people that get caught up in this idea that debt is bad and they invest in only high quality businesses like say the Google's back in the day or something like that where the balance sheet is ultra conservative and the business models are just fantastic. So you just have cash piling up. But there's a lot of success stories of a company, you know, don't go to 10 times leverage Malone style and try to just totally financial engineer the crap out of the thing. But you can add on to subscription business. Netflix has begun to do it a little bit, I think they did in the past. And you can if you're trading at a cheap price, taking on a little bit of debt. I mean think if you take out low cost debt at 4, 4%, well probably now maybe 6%, 5, 5% maybe something like Microsoft and you can buy back at a yield of an earnings yield of 7 to 8% like a lot of these companies can. Why not? Makes a lot of sense to me. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast Smart move Being financially savvy Smart move. Another smart move having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan like a good neighbor State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and eligibility vary by state.
A
Yeah, what's the saying? If you can. If you can borrow at 3% and you can buy back at 7% for a long time, your valuation is theoretically infinite.
B
That was I think someone in the Malone complex said that so you know it hasn't aged well. It's in theory that can work but like all good ideas, you can take them too far as a lot of the Liberty people I think have given the stock price performance there. Do you we want to talk. We have Kelly Partners Group and this Go Easy stock collapse. I think we can hit both of those. Let's do Kelly Partners first. Sure you'll want us to revisit this stock stocks I think another AI loser deemed by Mr. Market.
A
Yeah, kind of a spoiler alert there. I was going to get to that. But yes, that is, I think anyone that's followed the story could have probably already known that. So Kelly Partners Group for those that don't know, basically an accounting an accounting advisory firm roll up based out of Australia. So I've got a couple quotes from my previous podcast that we did on them that I'll reread here. So Kelly Partners currently has 37 operating businesses as of the latest report. Again, this might have grown since we last reported it, but the majority of those operating businesses are located in Australia, but they've recently acquired a few in the US as well. These business are chartered accounting firms that primarily service small to medium sized businesses. In terms of financial size, the operating businesses typically generate 1 to 2 million dollars in annual revenue. At the time of that writing I said for 2024, Kelly Partners Group had US$16.2 million in underlying NP ATA, which is like net profit after tax and amortization. I think using that figure, the stock traded at 17 times. Here are the returns since I wrote that report. Brett, maybe you can share the screen. But spoiler alert, since I wrote that report, shares are down 42% and I think they're actually down almost 60% from highs. So what is happening? It seems like there are sort of two reasons both of them linked to AI the first is that there is some concern that companies will be able to automate more accounting practices like traditional small medium sized businesses will be able to automate accounting practices in house and not have a need for an actual accounting firm. I kind of think I would personally discard this risk. It doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me. A lot of the businesses I know personally that use like an actual in person chartered accounting firm, they're complex, they kind of like the white glove service. They aren't really looking, they're not risking their business to switch to anything. Sort of AI generated a two person
B
operation like ourselves who never used any outside accounting services and just runs an LLC and has, you know, me doing a couple hours every year trying to figure things out. I utilize AI now, but I wasn't paying. I mean to be honest, we don't even pay for anything accounting or tax wise. So it's a simple business and I don't think if we're lost as a potential customer, it's not going to kill the industry.
A
No. I would guess most of the people using chartered accounting firms run a more complex business model than a podcast. Long story short, I don't really give that much merit to that AI risk. The one that I do concern myself a little more with is. First of all, I'll read another quote here on why businesses are receptive to acquisition from Kelly Partners Group to begin with. So here was sort of how they advertise it. Kelly offers a standardized operating platform. This takes out a big chunk of the responsibilities required for actually running their business. And this is the business of a chartered accounting practice. You no longer need to pay for your own systems. Hr, it, marketing trainings all get handled by Kelly, which allows the partners to focus more on actually serving customers. It also gives them more free time to handle more customers if they were working at capacity. If AI can make it easier to function for the accounting firms themselves, then I think part of the appeal of selling to Kelly Partners Group is diminished. So, and I honestly don't know what to think about that AI risk. It seems legitimate to me. Like AI, it might not automate accounting for the end customer the way some people envision, but I do think it can automate routine or repetitive tasks for the actual accounting firms themselves. As for the updated valuation, they've got about $23 million USD in cash flow, operating cash flow over the last 12 months, $237 million enterprise value. So you're looking at about 10 times EV to operating cash. Now keep in mind When a company sells to Kelley Partners Group, the partner or the accountant, whoever the lead is, they're staying on. Like these are operating businesses that continue to run and these usually a lot of the customers know the accountant really well. It's like a personal connection. So it's not like they're selling to Kelly just for the money to get out. And maybe that happens in some cases, but you need them to stay on usually. So I do think there's some legitimate risk to Kelly not being able to find as many acquisition candidates or the value proposition not being as high. If you are interested in learning more about Kelly Partners Group, either a check out our podcast or I know that they are hosting. You can tell me whether you think this is a red flag or not. They are hosting an event now at Berkshire this year. Bond spread.
B
Potential clients there, right? No.
A
Maybe. Yeah, maybe some potential acquisition targets.
B
Yeah. We have Tyler in the chat here saying that their minority interest or they don't own 100% of some of these businesses. That makes the accounting look a little bit better than it does. The financials look a little bit better. So make sure to look at that when doing the numbers. And there is a recent tweet today actually from Mr. And he shares a name with me, Brett Kelly himself, Mr. Kelly, saying that Kelly Partners Group is building out our software engineering and now AI team with a new partnership with the hello AI Collective. We have more than 23,000 private client groups, all of whom will need AI advice and consulting services. We won't say much about the unique way we can leverage this technology. And other than that, Anderson built Accenture. We can build a digitally enabled scaled advising consulting offering for the clients we already have and those to come through future partnerships. So again, there's uncertainty there, but potentially, I don't know, opportunities. If you want to talk with Mr. Kelly, he's very active on Twitter. He's actually. We follow each other. He's pretty accessible. You can talk to their IR team. There's a lot of interesting stuff. Never on the stock, but seems interesting to me. And who knows, they have a long Runway to grow.
A
I like, I like Brett Kelly. He seems transparent, seems honest and he's very clear about how he's trying to grow the business. I am curious if a lot of these accounting firms are trying to automate some of these back office functions that Kelly comes in and usually helps with. That's actually happening in practice. Happening in practice, yes.
B
But you have to think about small businesses, Ryan. I would say that they're probably moving Slower. And if Kelly can offer, hey, we have this as a service for you. You sell to us, we can. Obviously, unfortunately, that would require layoffs. Probably you're making a lower headcount. But if they can increase margins for you, that's, that's a huge part of the offering. You could probably see that these accounting firms get a lot more efficient, you have less workers. Or someone can just be much, much better at their job with, with AI basically an encyclopedia helping you doing accounting. I, I could see it doing my own taxes. You. I have a question. Hey, what's the best way to do this? But I mean, these are per. It's tailor made. Like the AI tools are tailor made for this. Because it's not an opinion on something. It's like a distinct fact and an extremely complicated tax law. And yeah, if you can supercharge your accountants, I feel like that can be quite helpful.
A
Yeah. Tyler's got a few comments just around. Operating cash flow is not a great valuation metric for KPG because 100% of subsidiary cash flow makes it to that line item and is removed under financing. So yeah, maybe using the wrong. Might be using the wrong metric there.
B
Do your evaluation work.
A
It is.
B
It's hard to do. It's a business that's hard to do analysis on a podcast. They have complicated financials.
A
So yeah, serial acquirers generally can be a little fickle. Do we want to talk about the.
B
Some more accounting or bubble watch or both? I'll go quick through all this.
A
Let's go through the non prime lender that blew up. Go easy.
B
Let's do it. All right. Did. Did any one of your. Because you work for a Canadian company, any of your Canadian friends talk about this company? Did they know about this?
A
No, not at Fiscal, but I did see our Canadian resident Jim Gillies mention this as well.
B
All right, interesting. I would assume he knows it much better than me, but I think this is a lesson in lending businesses. There's opacity that makes it hard to analyze unless you're just an extremely good banking or financial analyst. The stock. And I'll get through what the business actually does. But the stock peaked in September 2025 and is now down 80%. So in a few months it's down 80%. It was a Canadian compounder that turned into a thousand baggers just in the 21st century. So a huge winner. Just a ginormous winner at its peak. And I bet there are a few listeners here. You know, I don't know. Jim is listening. If he is, he probably does it much better than me. There's probably some listeners that know this better than me but let me try to quickly summarize. They make loans to subprime borrowers in Canada. They're focused on consumer lending and point of sale lending. Apparently they massively underestimated loan losses recently. So bad that the CFO resigned in September and they're going to have to restate earnings. Here's a quote from the update quote. After giving effect to the anticipated incremental net charge offs, the company expects net charge off rate for 2025 to be approximately 12.9%. Management now expects forward looking credit performance on lend care loans to be worse than anticipated. And we're going to have annual net charge of rate increase to the mid teens in 2026 before beginning to decline in 2027 and onward. A net charge off of 13% is bonkers. That means pretty much if everyone, it's, if everyone has equal loans they're giving about 13 out of every 100 customers that are just not going to give them any money back. I know it's different in practice but that's how I think about it. Like here you were so bad at underwriting loans that 13 out of every 100 loans you gave out, you get nothing. You're not getting anything.
A
Yeah. And I, I mean maybe this, I, I doubt this is baked into the model but this to me, I mean there is a world in which you know you have 12.9% net charge off rate if you're earning 30%. Sure, sure interest, you know, it can work.
B
But Discover financial is like 5. Yeah.
A
So here's, this is my thing with even some of the neo banks, like anyone that's getting into personal loans. This is what worries me is it looks, it looks so good until it doesn't. It's like the turkey before Thanksgiving. Like go easy. I was looking at this. They wiped out six years, six and a half years of I think outperformance in a day. Like 58% drop, stock price drop in a single day wiped out six years of outperformance. You don't know when that day could come. So I guess that that goes to how much you trust management. But it's like even if the CFO was doing this accidentally or like not intentionally understating their net charge off rate
B
like
A
things can happen, your models could have been wrong. Less people pay you back. It's, this is, especially with the subprime space, this is the risk.
B
Trailing PE is three. You gonna bottom fish here.
A
Four p Is what a thousand?
B
Yeah, four p is negative.
A
Yeah, yeah.
B
This is a. It's a good example of why lenders are tough and why we've talked about like looking through financial history, just everything trying to be, you know, learning from history is that we get nervous despite again a sofa of the world. Looking good, growing well, being impressed by their operations. I just like someone with a very long track record in lending over someone that's just starting something. I mean you can even look at Ally Financial decades and decades of experience in consumer car lending or just the automotive lending space in general. They got into something new. They're extremely frugal people. They're very, very shrewd underwriters apparently. But they get into new lines of business and it just goes terribly. They just didn't have that muscle memory.
A
There's a question here. Do you trust Anthony Noto in the chat which is the CEO of SoFi? Yeah, I mean I think I trust him as an operator but how long have they been in the personal lending space? It's the unknowns to him.
B
It's just part of the business. Yeah, it's part of the business and they have fee revenue so. But he, he was the CEO of the NFL, right?
A
C o o I think or something like that. Yeah.
B
He's not some guy that was working at progressive for 30 years. You know like I'm not saying this is going to happen to Sofi but it is a risk with those type of businesses.
A
Yeah. Anytime you have a fast growing lending portfolio, especially if it's a. I think personal loans is like a, a the majority of their loan portfolio. Now these are the downsides is the net charge off rate can jump quickly and all of a sudden earnings look really depressed.
B
That's true. All right, let's move into Bubble Watch. Have to do this every week at this point. You seem to know more about this when we talked about it offline. Meta is acquiring a company called Mult Book. What happened here? What's going on?
A
Honestly, I had no idea. For anyone that doesn't know Moat Book, apparently it's like someone created. I still don't get this entirely. So as the words come out of my mouth I don't really understand what I'm saying.
B
I'm going to their homepage right now.
A
Someone created a social media for AI agents.
B
That's exactly what it is.
A
It's just AI agents talking to each other.
B
A social network for AI agents where AI agents share, discuss and upvote humans. Welcome to observe Lovely Lovely world.
A
We're in I thought this was a meme website like I thought. I honestly thought this was basically a joke. But Meta acquired them and I could not guess why. I didn't understand it. It's obviously not going to be whatever their WhatsApp. It's not a hidden I don't see how it's a hidden asset. A hidden social media asset could be wrong here, but I've seen some people say this is like a talent grab. They just wanted the CEO.
B
Just a few. A little more talent, they'll catch up. Just a little more talent. Are we going to admit Meta is a loser in AI?
A
Can we admit this is what Gemini says? I asked why did Meta acquire Moatbook? It says primarily to secure a foundational role in the emerging agentic web. And honestly I that's made up. I can't think of a more dystopian line
B
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B
Yeah, yeah, Gemini's hiding from from us. Look, I understand that Meta is getting efficiencies on their advertising and their advertising is just an insanely good business, but they just keep making these new AI teams. They're spending so much money they're aqua hiring this Alexander Wang guy For what, $14 billion? They're doing this multiple thing. They have zero market share. I would say it's 0.0% market share. You're not a llama Claude Anthropic or sorry, Claude Chat GPT Gemini maybe Perplexity. Toss them in there. Right. So that's it? There's nothing else Grok on Twitter? Only exclude the ad replies on Twitter. No one's using grok except for SpaceX. Apparently. There's nothing there.
A
I kind of like. I like Zuck generally speaking, but I think like, you know, you know how you want to find a business that skates where the puck is going? He skates where the puck was like a while back.
B
He takes a big swing and just falls on his skates.
A
Yeah.
B
And Google just hits it right into the top corner. Look at the ability to launch new products. Compared to that, it's so much. Google runs circles around them.
A
They have built a phenomenal advertising business. Not taking anything away from that. And their average revenue per user, it's like 10 times or 5 times what most social media platforms generate. But I'm. They all. Every time they try to diversify their business, it is a reminder why I don't own shares.
B
It's tough.
A
Yeah, I can't. I just can't find my. I can't. It just feels like they waste so much money.
B
Oh, they do, they do. But, you know, business still performs quite well. That advertising business makes up for a lot of stuff. All right, we're going over time, but I want to just say, let me go to this question. People wanted to talk about Nintendo because the stock started ripping on this new Pokemon game. Let me just give quick context within 30, 30 to 60 seconds here about what the game can mean. I have had full writing for the Emerging Mode Stock Research service that I have full thoughts on the company there. But generally the game. There's a new game, Pokemon Pocopia, I didn't even know is really coming out, but it's gone viral. It's kind of like an animal crossing Minecraft thing for Pokemon. And the game is apparently good and people love it and people are buying Switch 2 for it now. Am, or excuse me, Nintendo announced that they sold 2.2 million copies of the game within a few days. And that is with only. It's a Switch 2 exclusive. That's with I think less than 20 million units sold. So a huge amount of people bought it within a couple of days, if you kind of get my drift here. It's not like the switch one where there's already 100 million out there, but it's similar to Super Mario Odyssey, which is the launch game. One of the launch games for the original Switch, which sold like a couple million copies within a week. And over the life of that game that sold 30 million units. If you run through the unit economics of what a first party game can mean for Nintendo's profitability, this could be a billion plus in earnings. Power of Pokemon Pocopia can turn into a 30 million unit seller. So it's unsurprising why the stock Is moving. Ryan. Trying to run through the numbers there, but quickly. We're running over time, but anything on that before we get out of here?
A
I'm not a Pocopia user yet, but maybe in time. Yeah. It seems like this has kind of become. What do they say it's like in the Zeitgeist now?
B
Viral now? Yeah.
A
Is this like a Pokemon Go moment? Maybe for the Switch, except where people actually pay a ton of money for it to begin with. It's. I mean, yeah, I. Kudos to you and Leandro. Couldn't have been better timing on that episode.
B
That interview. That interview is, who knows, maybe we take out a new low. But that interview ended up being good timing. Go listen to that. I'd say for a full analysis of Nintendo. Ryan, any other thoughts for the listeners? Markets and turmoil. Turmoil. Oil price might be 150 by the time next week. Anything before we get out of here?
A
No to. To all the listeners, use any volatility over the coming week as a chance to probably buy more of the companies you love would be my advice. But that is going to do it. Thank you to everyone for tuning in. I want to remind you that Brett and I are not financial advisors. Anything we say or discuss here on this podcast is not formal advice or recommendation. We may buy, sell, or hold any of the securities discussed in this podcast. So once again, please do your own work. Thank you all for tuning in and we'll see you next.
B
Close your eyes. Exhale. Feel your body relax, and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class. I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh, my gosh. They're so fast. And breathe.
A
Oh, sorry.
B
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Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer
In this fast-paced and insightful episode, Ryan and Brett navigate the volatile financial markets, digest a slate of major earnings (Adobe, Dollar General), dissect Oracle's dramatic pivot into AI infrastructure, analyze Amazon's massive bond sale, and re-examine small-caps like Kelly Partners Group and GoEasy. The hosts blend sharp analysis with their signature witty banter, delivering practical takeaways, lots of data, and noted skepticism about big strategic bets (looking at you, Oracle!). Whether you’re following the macro turmoil or hunting for new stock ideas, this episode is packed with actionable insights.
[01:02]
[12:55]–[16:47]
[16:50]
[02:25]–[07:18]
[08:13]–[12:47]
[24:36]–[34:03]
[35:33]–[39:25]
[40:40]–[43:22]
[44:27]–[53:03]
[53:13]–[58:52]
[58:52]–[63:22]
[63:22]–[65:55]
On Panic in Markets:
“If you buy on the day after ‘markets in turmoil’ [headlines], you outperform the market.” – Brett [01:02]
On Oracle’s AI Pivot:
“This has gone from a deep moat business to quite literally a construction company.” – Ryan [31:51]
“I did not realize they are literally risking everything. It’s insane.” – Ryan [30:23]
On Adobe:
“It’s such a noisy one where… I think, wow, this is at the risk of AI disruption. But honestly, the results get better and better every quarter.” – Ryan [05:37]
On Lending Risks:
“This is what worries me [about personal lending]… it looks so good until it doesn’t. It’s like the turkey before Thanksgiving.” – Ryan [55:53]
On Meta’s AI Moves:
“Are we going to admit Meta is a loser in AI?” – Brett [62:19]
On Using Volatility:
“Use any volatility over the coming week as a chance to probably buy more of the companies you love would be my advice.” – Ryan [65:55]
This episode delivers balanced perspective amid volatile macro headlines—cautiously optimistic about resilient business models (Adobe, Amazon), candidly skeptical of risky bets (Oracle), and clear-eyed about dangers in lending businesses. The recurring theme: In wild markets, stay disciplined, do your own research, and don’t chase fads (AI agentic web, anyone?).
For more, tune in to Chit Chat Stocks every Wednesday and Friday morning.