Chit Chat Stocks Podcast: “Markets In Turmoil; Oracle's Wild Plan; Adobe + Dollar General Earnings; Revisiting a Small-Cap”

Date: March 13, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer

Episode Overview

In this fast-paced and insightful episode, Ryan and Brett navigate the volatile financial markets, digest a slate of major earnings (Adobe, Dollar General), dissect Oracle's dramatic pivot into AI infrastructure, analyze Amazon's massive bond sale, and re-examine small-caps like Kelly Partners Group and GoEasy. The hosts blend sharp analysis with their signature witty banter, delivering practical takeaways, lots of data, and noted skepticism about big strategic bets (looking at you, Oracle!). Whether you’re following the macro turmoil or hunting for new stock ideas, this episode is packed with actionable insights.

Table of Contents

1. Markets in Turmoil & Oil Price Shock
2. Earnings Recap: Adobe & Dollar General
   • Adobe
   • Dollar General
3. Oracle’s Wild Pivot to AI Infrastructure
4. Amazon's $37B Bond Sale & AWS Expansion
5. Listener Question: Salesforce’s Leveraged Buyback
6. Revisiting Small-Caps: Kelly Partners Group
7. The GoEasy Stock Collapse: Lessons in Lending
8. Bubble Watch: Meta’s AI Moves & Nintendo’s Viral Game
9. Notable Quotes

Markets in Turmoil & Oil Price Shock

[01:02]

• The hosts kick off with a tongue-in-cheek reference to CNBC’s “Markets in Turmoil” and the statistically-good returns that sometimes follow such panicky headlines.
• The market sell-off is less than 5% but feels panic-inducing due to oil price volatility.

[12:55]–[16:47]

• Oil market chaos: Oil spikes from $80 to $120 intraday after a Straits of Hormuz closure, before settling closer to $100.
• Macro impact: Hosts note possible inflation resurgence tied to commodities, and the worrying effect of higher gas prices for consumers (Washington state gas at $7/gal if oil hits $150).
• "I think I've had AI make this estimate. Due to the new gas tax... price of gas per gallon... will be seven dollars if [oil] goes up to $150." – Brett [14:58]
• Ryan observes Americans ignore global issues “until it's 20 cents more expensive at the gas pump.” [14:46]

[16:50]

• Relative S&P 500 performance: Down just 4.2% from all-time highs, not a major crash, but volatility is up.

Earnings Recap: Adobe & Dollar General

Adobe

[02:25]–[07:18]

• Revenue up 12% (13% constant currency), fastest in 3+ years.
• Digital Media & Digital Experience both up 13%.
• Adjusted EPS up 19%, both top and bottom line outperforming estimates.
• Guidance strong; Remaining Performance Obligations up 26% y/y; $2.5B share buybacks.
• CEO Shantanu Narayen stepping down after 18 years with no successor named, hurting sentiment.
  • "This couldn’t come at a worse time… Given all the uncertainty around the business" – Ryan [04:36]
• The market remains skeptical of Adobe’s resilience vs. AI disruption, despite good numbers.
  • "If narratives didn’t exist and you had no idea what this business was... you’d probably [buy]" – Ryan [06:28]
• Afterhours, the stock dropped on the CEO news.

Dollar General

[08:13]–[12:47]

• Comp store sales growth accelerates to 4%—suggesting "trade down" in tough consumer environment.
• Margins rebounding after a rough patch, but EV/EBIT isn’t screaming cheap unless margins fully recover.
• Store additions at decade-lows; focus shifting to remodeling (2,000+ stores) and existing store optimization.
• Plans to open 450 new US stores, 10 Mexico locations.
  • "They're remodeling 2,000 stores... renovating 4,000 stores. So, yeah, the focus is on improving existing locations..." – Brett [11:38]
• Dollar General as a macro consumer indicator: “They do well [in] economic downturns.”

Oracle’s Wild Pivot to AI Infrastructure

[24:36]–[34:03]

• Oracle (traditionally capital-light, high-margin software) has spent $48B on CapEx over 12 months – more than TSMC.
• CapEx > revenue (108% last quarter); free cash flow negative for first time in 20 years (-$25B).
• Pivot to building AI data centers from scratch; 80% of compute capacity for AI workloads.
• Debatable synergy with core business – feels like a “construction company”.
• Gross margin expectation on AI data centers ~30%-40%; unclear operating margin.
• Risks:
  • “If there are delays… they've got to pay off the debt in the meantime and they’re doing it on speculative demand trends.” – Ryan [29:42]
  • Larry Ellison potentially backstopping a Paramount/Warner merger further complicates the risk profile.
  • Oracle is now ~4x net debt to EBITDA.
• “Is this the biggest single risk... a big tech company has ever taken?” – Ryan [33:18]
• Both hosts see this as a risky, possibly reckless “bet the farm” move for Oracle.

Amazon's $37B Bond Sale & AWS Expansion

[35:33]–[39:25]

• Conflicting news on exact bond amount but Amazon raising huge cash ($37B) for AWS/cloud capex.
• 2026 likely see negative free cash flow as $200B capex guidance outpaces $140B OCF.
• Notable: Amazon's balance sheet is far less levered than Oracle's—“a lot more room” to expand AWS safely.
• Hosts are more comfortable with Amazon funding infrastructure than Oracle, given track record and AWS unit economics (sticky, 35% op. margin, cost discipline).
  • “I look at Amazon taking out debt as a positive and for Oracle as making no sense.” – Ryan [38:06]

Listener Question: Salesforce’s Leveraged Buyback

[40:40]–[43:22]

• $50B buyback funded by debt: Is it risky?
• Company has $15B debt vs. higher earnings; cash flow yield ~6-7% with revenue growth expected.
• Hosts see this as reasonable given cash flow predictability and durable subscription-based business model.
• “If you take out low cost debt at 4%… and buy back at [a] yield of 7-8%… why not? Makes sense to me.” – Brett [42:09]

Revisiting Small-Caps: Kelly Partners Group

[44:27]–[53:03]

• Background: Serial acquirer of Australian accounting firms (37 businesses), increasingly buying in the US.
• Stock Down: -42% since last feature; -60% from highs.
• Why? Market fears AI could automate accounting and/or diminish KPG’s value to targets (less operating friction for firms = less reason to sell).
• “If AI can make it easier to function for the accounting firms themselves, the appeal of selling to KPG is diminished.” – Ryan [46:59]
• Valuation (10x EV/Operating Cash) might be misleading due to minority interests—caution recommended.
• CEO Brett Kelly is transparent, active on social media, and touts new AI/data initiatives.
• Hosts retain some optimism but flag real uncertainty in the roll-up model and AI’s ultimate impact.

The GoEasy Stock Collapse: Lessons in Lending

[53:13]–[58:52]

• GoEasy: Canadian subprime lender; stock down 80% in months, erasing six years of gains.
• Root cause: Underestimated loan losses; CFO resigned and company must restate earnings.
• Net charge-off rate spikes to ~13%—“bonkers” per Brett—signal poor underwriting.
• Warning: Lending/fintech stocks can be “the turkey before Thanksgiving”—looks great until a painful blow-up.
  • “It looks so good until it doesn’t…” – Ryan [55:53]
• Discuss risks in fast-growing personal lending, regardless of CEO/operator pedigree (citing SoFi as an example).

Bubble Watch: Meta’s AI Moves & Nintendo’s Viral Game

Meta & Moatbook

[58:52]–[63:22]

• Meta acquired "Moatbook"—described (with bemusement) as “a social media for AI agents,” possibly for a talent acqui-hire.
• “I thought this was a meme website… but Meta acquired them.” – Ryan [59:35]
• Brett questions Meta’s actual presence in AI LLMs ("Are we going to admit Meta is a loser in AI?") and is unimpressed with their ‘agentic web’ ambitions.
• Despite “stellar ad business,” every major attempt at business model diversification has been costly and underwhelming.

Nintendo

[63:22]–[65:55]

• Nintendo’s new game, “Pokemon Pocopia,” sells 2.2M copies in days on Switch 2—akin to a “Pokemon Go moment.”
• If it matches success of prior hits, could represent $1B+ in earnings power.
• “It’s in the Zeitgeist now… viral.” – Ryan [65:22]

Notable Quotes

• On Panic in Markets:
  “If you buy on the day after ‘markets in turmoil’ [headlines], you outperform the market.” – Brett [01:02]

• On Oracle’s AI Pivot:
  “This has gone from a deep moat business to quite literally a construction company.” – Ryan [31:51]
  “I did not realize they are literally risking everything. It’s insane.” – Ryan [30:23]

• On Adobe:
  “It’s such a noisy one where… I think, wow, this is at the risk of AI disruption. But honestly, the results get better and better every quarter.” – Ryan [05:37]

• On Lending Risks:
  “This is what worries me [about personal lending]… it looks so good until it doesn’t. It’s like the turkey before Thanksgiving.” – Ryan [55:53]

• On Meta’s AI Moves:
  “Are we going to admit Meta is a loser in AI?” – Brett [62:19]

• On Using Volatility:
  “Use any volatility over the coming week as a chance to probably buy more of the companies you love would be my advice.” – Ryan [65:55]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 01:02 – Market panic/oil spike
• 02:25 – Adobe earnings start
• 08:13 – Dollar General earnings
• 12:55 – Oil market deep dive
• 24:36 – Oracle AI pivot
• 35:33 – Amazon bond raise
• 40:40 – Salesforce buyback
• 44:27 – Kelly Partners revisit
• 53:13 – GoEasy lending collapse
• 58:52 – Bubble Watch (Meta & Moatbook)
• 63:22 – Nintendo’s viral game

Summary Takeaway:

This episode delivers balanced perspective amid volatile macro headlines—cautiously optimistic about resilient business models (Adobe, Amazon), candidly skeptical of risky bets (Oracle), and clear-eyed about dangers in lending businesses. The recurring theme: In wild markets, stay disciplined, do your own research, and don’t chase fads (AI agentic web, anyone?).

For more, tune in to Chit Chat Stocks every Wednesday and Friday morning.