Chit Chat Stocks – Episode Summary

Podcast: Chit Chat Stocks
Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer
Date: November 28, 2025
Episode: Michael Burry's Nvidia Short; Thanksgiving Turkey Stocks; Is It Time To Sell Alphabet? $GOOG $NVDA

Episode Overview

In this week's special "Power Hour" episode, Ryan and Brett discuss the financial world's biggest news: Michael Burry's high-profile short position on Nvidia and his new public critique of the broader AI infrastructure boom. They also answer listener questions, review market laggards that could rebound in 2026, debate the merits of leading mega-cap tech, and lighten things up with Thanksgiving-themed investing analogies.

Main Topics & Key Insights

1. Michael Burry vs. Nvidia: The Cassandra Unchained Substack Saga

• [00:54 – 21:06]
• Michael Burry, famed for "The Big Short," has closed his Scion Asset Management fund and started a Substack called "Cassandra Unchained," launching with a public analysis of his Nvidia short.
• Burry draws comparisons between today’s AI investment boom and the dot-com/telecom bubbles:
  • He challenges the narrative that this time is different because companies are profitable, noting that even the "Four Horsemen" (Microsoft, Intel, Dell, Cisco) led the last boom/bust.
  • Key concern: Tech giants’ (Meta, Google, Oracle, etc.) massive capital expenditures on AI infrastructure may be overstated in terms of their economic value, much like overbuilding in the telecom era.
  • Central accounting issue: Are Nvidia’s customers inflating reported profits by extending the depreciation schedule for their GPUs and related chips from 3 to over 5 years?
• Ryan: "I don't know if more of the weight of the economy has ever rested on such an important accounting question." [06:52]
• Nvidia’s private memo in response to Burry’s report, sent only to Wall Street banks (not the public), raises concerns for the hosts:
  • Ryan: "It feels very much like we need buy-in from Wall Street… This feels like a very fragile thing to do." [11:06]
• Ryan and Brett discuss the possibility of a “bubble”: If the end customers (like OpenAI) can’t generate profits, the entire AI value chain’s high return on capital could be unsustainable.
• Brett reinforces this macro risk: "If OpenAI doesn't have positive economics then the whole thing falls apart eventually." [15:54]

Notable Quote

Michael Burry (via Ryan):
"We can all use our iPhone longer than intended, and I try. But at three years that old phone might be just 10% of original value. I can continue to use it if I make myself happy with the poor performance, even if nobody else would want it." [14:22]

Memorable Moment

• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, at the March AI Conference:
  "I said before that when Blackwell starts shipping in volume, you couldn’t give Hoppers away… I am the chief revenue destroyer... There are circumstances where Hopper is fine. That’s the best thing I could say about Hopper. There are circumstances where you’re fine. Not many." [24:45]
  Brett: "Sounds like fast depreciation, right?"
  Ryan: "That is him trying to promote the newest product. But it is a comment like that can wipe out trillions in market…"

2. Alphabet's Meteoric Rise: Time To Trim?

• [23:59 – 30:19]
• Alphabet (Google's parent) has surged ~100% in six months, now rivaling Apple and surpassing Microsoft in market cap.
• Narrative shift: Google is now seen as the only "vertically integrated AI player," from data to hardware (TPUs), models (Gemini), and applications (YouTube, Search, Gmail).
• Both hosts express surprise at how quickly the market's perception of Google changed:
  Ryan: "The narrative around Nvidia could not have changed more in the span of six months... Now they are the only vertically integrated AI player in the world. That's the narrative. And maybe they are." [24:58]
• Ryan: Sold half his Alphabet position after the big run, citing portfolio management discipline.
  • "If a stock goes up 100% in a month, I sell it no matter what… If the most profitable company in the world goes up 100% in six months… I have a natural inclination to trim." [29:35]
• Brett notes that significant alpha (outperformance) can still be generated in mega-caps.

3. Amazon's Enduring Moat & Mega Cap Value Debate

• [32:16 – 39:49]
• Tangible anecdotes illustrate Amazon’s enduring value proposition—overnight delivery, unmatched logistics, and vertical integration.
• Brett: "You could spend all over the city trying to find this at Best Buy... and boom, it's on the everything store. That moat is incredible."
• Both hosts agree Amazon is likely the widest-moat business among the Mag 7, noting they're even trading cheaper than Costco or Walmart.
• Debate: Could pairs trade (long Amazon/short Walmart & Costco) be profitable over the next 5 years?

4. Thanksgiving Turkey Stocks and Market Leftovers

• [40:59 – 54:20]
• Audience questions prompt a “Thanksgiving turkey” analogy: Which companies have performed well but face overlooked terminal risk (i.e., the risk of one-day calamity)?
  • Brett names Apple and Tesla: "You could have a tremendous life over 364 days. And then one day everything goes…"
  • Ryan suggests retail laggards like Target, Nike, and Chipotle, but laments much of the damage is in the rearview.
• The "Turkey Portfolio": Pfizer, potentially over-earning banks and legacy brokerages like Schwab/Fidelity, and perennial value traps.
• Both hosts express skepticism about cable (Charter) and identify Lululemon and Constellation Brands as possible bounce-back candidates.

Notable Quote

Brett:
"I think today [Amazon] have the widest moat of any business in the world of Meg 7." [36:11]
Ryan:
"I will never touch cable. That's a rule for me. Mainly because I've just seen too many people get burned there and a lot of really bright people get burned." [59:26]

5. Listener Q&A: Zoom, MercadoLibre, and Black Friday Stock Bargains

• [61:24 – 64:14]
• Zoom:
  • Still generating cash, decent margins, stock left for dead. Hosts cautiously positive but acknowledge shifting views.
  • Q: "Is Zoom cheap?"
    • Both: "Yes." (with caveats).
• MercadoLibre:
  • Growing 35–49% (FX neutral), expanding margins, and trading at 25x forward EV/EBIT—hosts believe it has multi-year tailwinds (Argentina recovery, e-commerce, fintech) and remains a top conviction idea.
  • Brett: "I feel like you do well owning MercadoLibre here… over the next 5 to 10 you probably do quite well owning this stock." [63:56]
• Other top leftovers/compounders: Nelnet, Interactive Brokers, Nubank, Coupang, and airport operators.

6. What The Hosts Are Thankful For

• [52:45 – 54:20]
• Market entertainment: Brett expresses (tongue-in-cheek) thankfulness for MicroStrategy’s "grandpa" buyers losing 50%, and for the “AI boom/bubble” giving them weekly content.
• Ryan: "I'm thankful for Google, come on!"
  Also mentions publicly-traded airports and the AI bull/bubble for making the investing world interesting.

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | Highlights | |----------------------|---------------|-----------| | Michael Burry vs Nvidia | 00:54–21:06 | Burry's Nvidia short, tech bubble parallels, Nvidia's response, useful life/depreciation debate | | Alphabet’s Boom | 23:59–30:19 | Alphabet’s narrative flip, Gemini, TPUs, trimming positions | | Amazon’s Value / Moat| 32:16–39:49 | Amazon anecdotes, vertical integration, pairs trade discussion | | Thanksgiving Turkeys | 40:59–54:20 | "Turkeys," terminal risk, pharma, retail laggards, market losers | | Zoom & MercadoLibre Q&A | 61:24–64:14 | Earnings reviews, value/growth check, compounders | | Lighthearted Thanks | 52:45–54:20 | MicroStrategy schadenfreude, being thankful for market drama |

Choice Quotes

• Ryan (on Nvidia’s defensiveness):
  "It all felt more fragile to me the moment after they did that [private memo]."

• Brett (on Alphabet’s shift):
  "I think the lesson from this is that you can find Alpha in mega caps… There was this thesis around full stack infrastructure advantage—I thought it was already priced in, but apparently, it hasn’t been." [27:12]

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• The hosts combine deep market skepticism with a lighthearted tone, poking fun at both hype cycles and their own investing habits.
• Key themes:
  • The durability of mega-caps Alphabet and Amazon,
  • The fragility underlying AI’s infrastructure boom,
  • The importance of skepticism even as narratives flip,
  • Enjoyment of “market drama” and its lessons for individual investors.

Listeners will leave with:

• A nuanced understanding of the risks and debates around Nvidia and AI capex,
• Cautious optimism for select mega-caps and international growth stocks,
• Fresh holiday analogies to share at their own Thanksgiving tables,
• A sense of fun and camaraderie in the investing journey.