Chit Chat Stocks – Power Hour Episode Summary

Episode: Nvidia's Blowout Earnings; MicroStrategy's Meltdown; Is Hims & Hers Stock a Buy?
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (A) & Brett Schafer (B)
Date: November 21, 2025

Overview

This Power Hour episode dives deep into the latest wave of financial news, starting with Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings, then pivoting to Adobe’s Semrush acquisition, a heated debate over the software market’s AI “winners and losers,” spotlights on small- and mid-cap stocks (Wix, TerraVest), and a schadenfreude-laced postmortem on MicroStrategy’s massive decline. The hosts round out the discussion with rapid takes on Hims & Hers and listener Q&A.
Tone: Lively, slightly irreverent, but always analytical, with plenty of banter.

1. Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings and the AI Bubble Debate

[01:16–21:47]

Key Discussion Points

• Huge Earnings Beat:

  • Nvidia “beat on the top and bottom line.” ([02:06])
  • Operating income exploded: “Operating income for Nvidia went from $4 billion to $110 billion in about three years.” ([03:49])
  • The stock initially popped 5% after hours on the report but gave up all gains during intraday trading. ([02:06–02:44])

• AI Bubble – Is It Real?

  • CEO Jensen Huang’s stance: “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.” ([02:58])
  • Brett’s rejoinder: “It’s kind of like your crack dealer saying, from our vantage point, we don’t see a crack epidemic.” ([05:41])
  • The hosts clarify: when people say ‘AI bubble,’ they’re usually referring to an over-spending bubble on GPUs, not that Nvidia’s financials are a mirage. Nvidia is a prime beneficiary. ([05:57–07:07])

• Bearish Arguments & Skepticism

  • Inventory jumps drew attention, but the team notes: “If you were in Jensen Huang’s spot, wouldn’t you boost your inventory if you were seeing huge jumps in commitments?” ([07:34–08:17])
  • The bear case: History might rhyme with the telecom bubble—earnings boom for a few years and then collapse. ([08:17])
  • Ongoing debates about depreciation schedules: Should GPUs get written off in 2-3 years, not 6? The hosts think market insiders (Big Tech CEOs) would act if those assets really sunset that quickly. ([09:40–12:51])
  • Brett: “I don’t know the answers to almost any of these questions, I don’t think.” ([20:53])

• Industry Insight and Quotes

  • Gavin Baker (Atreides Asset Management) cited:
    • “The frontier model industry increasingly looks like a four-player oligopoly.” ([13:19])
    • “Return on invested capital for the hyperscalers…remains higher than it was before they ran their capex on GPUs.” ([14:53])
    • Commentary on Gemini 3 shows Google catching up or even surpassing OpenAI. ([16:20])

• Big Picture Uncertainty

  • Eventually, supply will meet demand—what happens to used GPU prices then? ([19:10–20:53])
  • Brett: “AI is not going to be different than any other commoditized…industry. Compute is not going to be different.” ([19:10])

Notable Quotes

• Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO, as quoted by Ryan):

  “There’s been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different.” ([02:58])

• Brett:

  “It’s kind of like your crack dealer saying, from our vantage point, we don’t see a crack epidemic.” ([05:41])

• Brett:

  “If end AI software revenue grows at about 100% for the next decade…Good luck.” ([21:29])

• Ryan:

  “I don’t think they’re sitting in the trash bin after three years. I think they’re somewhere on a rack in a data center…serving some function.” ([12:51])

2. Adobe Acquires Semrush

[22:56–27:02]

Key Discussion Points

• $1.9B all-cash deal; SEMrush generates ~$450M ARR.
• SEMrush is an online visibility and SEO tool, valuable for marketing departments.
• Ryan questions the timing: “You are buying a business at 4 times ARR when you could be buying your own business at 14 times cash flow.” ([25:17])
• Brett: Higher opportunity cost; seems like a good deal for SEMrush shareholders, less sure for Adobe. ([26:40])

Notable Quote

• Ryan:

  “Right now seems like a great time to buy back shares is what I’m trying to say…could you have waited two years?” ([25:17])

3. AI “Winners” vs “Losers” in the Software Sector

[27:23–35:09]

Key Discussion Points

• Listener question: Why is there such a valuation divergence between “infrastructure” AI SaaS (Snowflake, Datadog, Crowdstrike, Rubrik) and “application” software (Adobe, Salesforce, Monday.com)?
• Ryan: It’s partly a function of company size—big SaaS companies must slow down as they scale, and some of that is intentional (e.g., focus on profitability).
• AI is not killing application software: “If it’s much easier to build software tools using generative AI, and add that on to whatever service you have, the individual customer is not going to do that…just like it was previously.” ([32:02])
• Developers and creative professionals (from live chat): AI makes their jobs more efficient, not obsolete. Adobe has no real competitor for professionals yet. ([35:09])

Notable Quotes

• Brett:

  “AI is not going to kill these things…What’s the return on time spent? They’re still going to be able to sell it to me at a reasonable price.” ([32:02])

• Live chat:

  “I’m a developer—AI doesn’t replace software, it allows us to make better software faster.” ([35:09])

4. Small & Mid Cap Highlights: Becton Dickinson, Wix, TerraVest

[35:09–57:07]

Becton Dickinson Spin-Off

• Highlighted as a special situation by Hinde Group: selling biosciences/diagnostic unit for $18.8B, transaction to close Q1 2026. Remaining company will trade at <10x likely ’26 earnings, and expects a major buyback.
• “A fascinating opportunity some people should look into.” ([38:19])

Wix Earnings and Base 44 Vibe Coding

• Stock recently below $100. Now guiding for $2B in revenue (‘25), $600M free cash flow.
• “Their SBC [stock-based comp] nominally hasn’t gone up for about three years now.” ([39:49])
• Key acquisition: Base 44 (vibe coding, low-code/AI website builder, $50M ARR, growing fast). However, integration with Wix’s core is minimal so far.
• Risk: Competitive AI website builders (e.g., Gemini 3); uncertainty about moat.
• Brett: “Most interested in Wix I have been in a long time.” ([42:16])

TerraVest

• Canadian “serial acquirer” of manufacturing companies (propane/natural gas tanks, HVAC).
• Follows a familiar playbook: buy fragmented medium-sized businesses, implement cost synergies (especially in steel procurement).
• Comparison to Constellation Software—though TerraVest is in a completely different end market.
• Stock not “screaming cheap” at current levels, but “could be worth looking into more.”
• Brett: Not as strong a moat as some US industrials, but a “large runway for acquisitions.”

Notable Quotes

• Brett on Wix:

  “Something you liked before that’s back below $100 a share...There’s a good amount of SBC underlying that, but their SBC nominally hasn’t gone up for about three years now.” ([39:49])

• Ryan on TerraVest:

  “I would be totally lying if I pretended to know what the competitive landscape looks like there…But the stock has done really well and I could see it continuing.” ([56:03])

5. MicroStrategy’s Meltdown

[57:07–64:53]

Key Discussion Points

• MicroStrategy stock in 50% drawdown as Bitcoin drops below $90,000.
• Community in denial: “They are asking why the stock is down and blaming…the Epstein files.” ([58:04])
• Michael Saylor (CEO) posts an AI-generated image of himself sailing away as Titanic sinks—unintentionally on-the-nose. ([58:35])
• Critical take: Bitcoin is pure speculation; no claim on asset value or cash flow like a real company.
  • “There’s no such thing as value here. You’re not getting more value.” ([62:42])
• Brett notes microstrategy’s fate is exactly tied to “Bitcoin going down. There’s no mystery here.”

Notable Quotes

• Ryan:

  “It is so pointlessly risky. It makes no sense…There’s no actual returns here other than hopeful price appreciation.” ([60:25])

• Brett:

  “MicroStrategy people confused on why it’s going down…there’s no mystery here.” ([62:48])

6. Hims & Hers Stock – Lab Testing as a New Growth Lever

[64:53–65:52]

Key Discussion Points

• New product: D2C blood draws and lab tests, cheaper than direct-to-Quest-Diagnostics price.
  • “I see labs as a productive product that opens doors for Hims & Hers…creating an action plan offering services or prescriptions is a no brainer.” (Citing Travis Hoyam, Asymmetric Investing) ([64:31])
• Hims in a 48% drawdown, but posted 49% YoY revenue growth, positive net income.
• Concerns over CEO’s promotional behavior; brand recognition remains strong.

Notable Quotes

• Ryan:

  “On the one hand I see red flags with the CEO, but I also really respect Travis [Hoyam]…and they do have…very good brand notoriety.” ([65:11])

7. Audience Q&A and Closing

[65:52–end]

• Short takes on various audience questions (“Is Sam Darnold the guy?” Both hosts: “Too hard pile; outside my circle of competence.”) ([66:08])
• Announcement: Launch of the “Emerging Moats” newsletter for research-minded investors. ([66:36–67:00])
• The hosts reiterate: "Not financial advisors, DYOR."

8. Memorable Moments & Live Banter

• Brett’s crack dealer analogy for Nvidia ([05:41])
• On MicroStrategy’s Twitter memes: “He [Saylor] posted an AI-generated image of him sailing away in a life raft while…I think what looked like the Titanic was sinking behind him, which was maybe not the message he was intending to send.” ([58:35])
• Light trolling of Redditors blaming the “Epstein files” for MicroStrategy’s fall. ([58:04])
• Host interplay: Both are candid about the limits of their knowledge, placing some stocks and topics (“Sam Darnold,” TerraVest) solidly in the “too hard pile.”

Timestamps of Key Sections

• Nvidia Earnings & AI Bubble: 01:16–21:47
• Adobe Acquires Semrush: 22:56–27:02
• AI Software Valuation Divergence: 27:23–35:09
• Small & Mid Cap Special Situations: 35:09–57:07
• MicroStrategy & Crypto Meltdown: 57:07–64:53
• Hims & Hers Deep Dive: 64:53–65:52
• Q&A, Newsletter, Close: 65:52–end

Final Takeaway

The hosts deliver a sharp, high-energy survey of tech and growth market turbulence, balancing skepticism with curiosity and reminding listeners that the simplest explanation—is usually the right one. In a field swirling with AI hype, they remind us of the fundamentals: cash flow, moats, management quality, and a bit of humility in what we can predict.

Highly Recommended For:

• Investors wondering if there’s an AI bubble, how to view Nvidia’s run, or whether to buy “AI losers”
• Fans of deep-dive earnings banter and quick takes on evolving small-cap opportunities
• Listeners who appreciate investing podcasts that mix candor, skepticism, and a dash of irreverence