Chit Chat Stocks – Power Hour #183: Our 6 Favorite Growth Stocks, Taiwan Semi's AI Boom, Soaring Gold and Silver

Date: October 17, 2025
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (A), Brett Schaefer (B)

Overview

In this Power Hour episode, Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer dive into the latest developments across global markets as earnings season kicks off, with a special focus on Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and the accelerating demand for AI infrastructure. They also unveil their six favorite growth stocks (each selecting three), analyze the gold and silver surge, spotlight market sentiment via Charles Schwab data, recap key broker and financial stock earnings, and close with thoughts on luxury auto icon Ferrari. The tone is insightful, data-driven, and playfully skeptical—especially when dissecting hot growth trends and speculative bubbles.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) and Accelerating AI Growth

[02:02–16:41]

• Earnings Highlights:

  • TSMC reported 41% YoY revenue growth in USD terms ($33.1B), adding $3B over the last quarter.
  • Gross margins expanded from 57.8% to 59.5%—above the upper end of management guidance, aided by currency effects.
  • 60% of revenue now comes from TSMC’s most advanced nodes (5nm and below).
  • Largest wafer shipment quarter in at least a decade.
  • AI Accelerator Revenue: Previously guided for ~45% annual growth (CAGR) 2024–2029; this quarter, management said they expect to do “a little bit better than that.”

    "They're like, without saying it, they kind of raised that guidance..." (A, 06:27)

• Industry Margins:

  "ASML operating margin...35%. TSMC...50%. Nvidia...over 50%. You have three layers in the chain...quite the lucrative industry, semiconductors, AI computing and cloud computing." (B, 03:58)

• Management Culture:

  • TSMC management’s style is understated and extremely matter-of-fact, not promotional:

    "This isn't a management team that's like, oh, I'm just going to throw out that guidance to bump the stock..." (A, 08:15)

• Bear vs. Bull Debate:

  • Brett proposes the possibility of AI demand “falling off a cliff,” drawing parallels to the telecom bubble.
  • Ryan: “I would be very surprised” if demand vanished, given the scale and visibility.
  • Key Risk: Geopolitics remains the primary threat.
  • Brett argues for valuation discipline, preferring to buy TSMC at 15–20x normalized earnings and 40–45% operating margins.

    "The bull market can tell you things and...make you think 30 to 35 times earnings is cheap and it's not, even for a company growing like this." (B, 15:08)

  • Ryan admits: “If it were more in the low 20s on a forward earnings multiple, I think I'd be interested in adding shares.” (A, 15:15)
  • Both agree upside is high if TSMC’s AI forecast is right, but the current multiples require caution.

2. Six Favorite Growth Stocks Today

[18:34–41:26]

Selection Criteria:

• 20%+ YoY revenue growth based on recent quarters (with some FX or margin normalization discussed).
• Preference for companies with potential for sustained high growth and margin expansion.

Ryan’s Picks:

1. Remitly (RELY) | [22:37]

   • Digital remittance platform, growing revenue 56% (6Y CAGR), still over 30% recently.
   • Strong user stickiness, turning the corner into profitability.

   • “I feel like over a decade it has 10 bagger potential.” (B, 25:52)

2. Grab Holdings (GRAB) | [28:41]

   • Southeast Asia’s super app for ride sharing, delivery, and financial services.
   • 54% revenue CAGR over four years; clear network effects emerging.
   • Anecdotal feedback from Singapore-based analyst: “Everyone I know uses it.” (A, 29:20)

3. Adyen (ADYEN) [honorable mention] | [35:03]

   • High-quality payments processor with impressive acceptance success rates and retention.
   • Growth had slowed to ~19% (YoY), just below the arbitrary 20% cutoff, but significant value if price is right.

   • “Such a good...backbone, it’s very tough to replace for businesses, especially online businesses.” (A, 36:06)

Brett’s Picks:

1. The Real Brokerage (REAX) | [25:52]

   • Cloud-first real estate brokerage model, digital tool suite for agents.
   • Explosive revenue growth: ~$10M to $1.6B in last 12 months, growing 72% YoY.
   • Small but potentially high-upside position: “It genuinely does have 10 bagger potential.” (A, 28:03)

2. Nu Holdings (NU) | [30:44]

   • Digital-first bank with 114 million users in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia.
   • “Just a better app, better savings rates, credit cards without fees...viral app and one that should be very sticky.” (A, 33:28)
   • FX-neutral revenue growth estimated at 40%, net interest income up 22%.

3. OMA (Mexican Northern Airports) | [39:44]

   • Monopoly on Northern Mexican airports, growing core revenue 17%–24% YoY.
   • Near-term acceleration expected due to new contract in 2026.
   • Defensible, infrastructure-based “moat” business.

3. Market Sentiment: Schwab Cash Levels Signal Froth

[41:14–43:31]

• Charles Schwab statistic: Schwab customer cash as % of assets at 9%, its lowest since the GFC—even lower than the SPAC/meme bubble peak.
  • “There’s no dry powder...That to me is a real indicator of maybe it’s time to get a little more conservative with my portfolio.” (A, 42:02)
• Both express caution—increasing their own conservatism and noting little appetite for leverage.

4. Interactive Brokers (IBKR) Earnings—Growth Powerhouse

[43:35–48:07]

• Financial Highlights:
  • 79% operating margin—possibly the highest for any operating business (outside unusual licensing companies).
  • Customer accounts up 32% YoY to 4.1 million; customer equity up 40% to $758B.
  • Net interest income up 21%—remains sensitive to rates but underpinned by broad account growth and margin lending.
  • “They have 20x’d their total accounts since 2012. Massive growth phase out of nowhere.” (A, 46:03)
• Brett and Ryan both hold shares, use the platform, and praise its global reach and competitive advantage.

5. Gold & Silver Surge—Boom, or Blow-Off Top?

[48:13–53:08]

• Gold at $4,300/oz and up 60% YoY; silver at $53—both at all-time highs.
  • Brett attributes run to momentum, inflation/devaluation fears, and classic “reflexivity”—where price drives narrative and vice versa.
  • “Precious metals have...blow-off tops and then they collapse. Not saying that's happening tomorrow, but…” (B, 50:17)
• Both hosts agree that gold can fit as a portfolio hedge, but caution against over-allocating or over-obsessing.

6. JP Morgan’s $1.5 Trillion Bet on “Strategic Sectors”

[53:14–61:19]

• JP Morgan committing $10B in direct investments, $1.5T in financing (over 10 years) to “strategic industries.”
• Strategic areas: Advanced materials, microelectronics, mining, defense/aerospace, next-gen grid, battery storage, cyber, AI, quantum, etc.
  • Ryan dismisses the predictive value of bank participation:

    "I'm not investing in any companies in any of these categories solely on the principle that they'll have J.P. Morgan's help." (A, 57:45)

• Ryan and Brett see more promise in defense, aerospace, shipbuilding—predictable margins, stickier contracts, shareholder-friendliness—than in “deep tech” like quantum, AI (“Nvidia does not need your financing!” – A, 59:55).

7. Bubble Watch: Fermi (FRMI)—A Revenue-Free ‘AI Grid’ SPAC

[61:37–64:01]

• Fermi America: Recently went public, $17B market cap, zero recorded revenue; pitches “private grids for AI.”
  • Ryan: “This is the stuff that reminds me of the 2021, 2022 SPAC bubble.”
  • Both hosts express a mix of incredulity and amusement at the rapid creation of wealth with little substance.

    “If it introduces more private companies to public markets...and we have to go through these...bubble periods...but you find a few more gems, I’m okay with that.” (A, 63:13)

8. Ferrari – Luxury, but with Limits

[64:01–66:33]

• Stock down 24% post capital markets day.
  • Ferrari guiding for just 5% annual revenue growth, with active client growth but limited unit increases.
  • Market cap at 75B EUR is 27x projected 2030 EBIT.
  • Both hosts agree:
    • Pros: Ferrari’s 52% gross margins are “unheard of” in autos; luxury, club-like exclusivity.
    • Cons: Growth is capped by exclusivity; can't rapidly grow volume without diluting the brand.

    “There’s a cap to growth for a couple of reasons...the more that you do grow volume, the more it hurts the value of the people that are a part of that Ferrari club.” (A, 65:03)

  • Brett: “I’d rather buy Hermes at 33 times trailing EBIT. I think it's growing faster and...can grow faster.” (B, 66:33)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On TSMC’s AI Outlook:

  “They're like, yeah, actually we think we'll grow more than 40% annually for the next five years. And yes, we're already the biggest foundry in the world.” (A, 07:16)

• On Market Sentiment:

  “There's no dry powder...That to me is a real indicator of maybe it's time to get a little more conservative with my portfolio.” (A, 42:02)

• On Gold & Narrative Cycles:

  “Price drives narrative, which drives price, which drives narrative, which drives price.” (B, 51:48)

• On Strategic Sector Investing:

  “I'm not investing in any companies in any of these categories solely on the principle that they'll have J.P. Morgan's help.” (A, 57:45)

• SPAC Bubble Redux:

  “This is the stuff that reminds me of the 2021, 2022 SPAC bubble.” (A, 63:18)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• TSMC & AI Growth: 02:02–16:41
• Six Favorite Growth Stocks: 18:34–41:26
• Schwab Bubble Watch (Cash on Sidelines): 41:14–43:31
• Interactive Brokers Earnings Recap: 43:35–48:07
• Gold & Silver Boom: 48:13–53:08
• JP Morgan’s Strategic Sectors: 53:14–61:19
• Bubble Watch – Fermi America: 61:37–64:01
• Ferrari Luxury Growth Limits: 64:01–66:33

Conclusion & Tone

Ryan and Brett bring a friendly, conversational, yet deeply analytical approach to market news—wading through hype to identify real value and caution listeners against both FOMO and bubble thinking. They celebrate strong businesses (TSMC, IBKR), are candid about their own portfolios (growth vs. durability vs. value), and punctuate the show with memorable one-liners and self-aware skepticism.