Palantir, Coupang, and Remitly Earnings; Ryan Cohen's Strange Interview; An Incoming AI IPO $PLTR $RELY $CPNG

Summary

Podcast Summary: Chit Chat Stocks – May 8, 2026 Episode: Palantir, Coupang, and Remitly Earnings; Ryan Cohen's Strange Interview; An Incoming AI IPO $PLTR $RELY $CPNG
Hosts: Ryan Henderson and Brett Schafer

---

Episode Overview

This episode dives into a busy week of earnings and industry developments, covering key updates from Remitly, Coupang, Uber, DoorDash, and Palantir. The hosts also dissect Ryan Cohen’s controversial CNBC interview, the buzz around an upcoming AI semiconductor IPO (Cerebras), and broader market trends like semiconductor super-cycle, AI hype, and the dynamics around buybacks, liquidity, and meme stocks. The tone is candid and analytic, laced with humor and skepticism about market froth.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Ryan Cohen’s Strange CNBC Interview & GameStop’s eBay Bid

• Segment Start: [01:24]
• Ryan Cohen’s interview is slammed for its evasiveness; he repeatedly answers “half cash, half stock” when asked about financing a potential eBay acquisition.
  • “It’s a tough watch... he wants eBay to just make him the CEO essentially.” (Ryan, [02:49])
  • Brett calls Cohen’s compensation structure “a red flag” since it’s based on GameStop’s market cap, incentivizing questionable M&A.
  • “He kind of carries himself like he’s Jensen Huang... your business is not Nvidia.” (Ryan, [05:17])
• Both hosts urge eBay to reject the deal, emphasizing eBay’s strong fundamentals and buyback record.
  • “They’re one of the best share cannibals of the last decade. eBay has reduced their share count by 60% plus over the last 12 years.” (Ryan, [05:54])

2. Bubble Watch: AI, Nanonuclear, and Hype Press Releases

• Segment: [06:34]
• Mocked a press release about Nanonuclear Energy and Super Micro Computer partnership:
  • “For anyone that doesn’t know, [Nanonuclear] is an entirely fake company. They don’t have any products.” (Brett, [07:15])
• General commentary on the proliferation of hype-driven, non-substantive AI partnership announcements:
  • “If you are a fake company without any products, this makes all the sense in the world.” (Ryan, [07:36])

3. Remitly (RELY) Earnings – Strong Quarter & Buybacks

• Segment Start: [08:52]
• Highlights:
  • Active customers up 20% YOY, send volume up 37% to $22B, revenue up 25% to $453M.
  • Operating margins surged from 2% to 12% in four quarters.
  • $42M in share buybacks this quarter.
• “Active customers are up 10x over the last six years... I love a good profit inflection.” (Ryan, [15:02])
• New CEO’s first quarter; expectations say he “can almost just sit back and relax.”
  • “They reset expectations... all he had to do was let that keep going.” (Brett, [11:21])
• Strong endorsement: “The margins again... already at 12% GAAP... these are not adjusted numbers. Room to get to 20 to 30%.” (Brett, [13:49])

4. Coupang (CPNG) Earnings – Subdued Results Amid Data Boycott Impact

• Segment Start: [16:12]
• Revenue up 8% YOY to $8.5B, with some margin compression due to fixed costs during subscriber drop from the “data lake boycott”.
• $391M spent on buybacks (~1% of total shares) in Q1.
• 80% of subscribers who churned due to the data incident have returned and are spending as before.
  • “It feels like ultimately the customer value proposition... is most important in the long run.” (Ryan, [20:38])
• The hosts remain bullish long-term despite this “bummer of the quarter.”

5. Uber (UBER) & DoorDash (DASH) – Growth and Capital Return

• Uber Segment Start: [22:14]
• Uber delivered fastest bookings growth in 4 years after cost savings and lower prices.
  • $3B in buybacks this quarter: “That’s more than the free cash flow generated, and the most they've bought back in a long time.” (Ryan, [25:13])
• Grab Segment / Listener Question: [25:36], [27:02]
  • Similar model, less AV risk; recent regulatory cap in Indonesia has minor impact.

6. OpenAI/SpaceX IPO Speculation & Market Top Thesis

• “Do you think the SpaceX IPO will mark the top and potentially even crash markets by sucking up liquidity from other meme names?” ([29:47])
• Both agree that mega-IPOs draw attention and liquidity, supporting the thesis of a thematic cycle top.
  • “If you’re an investor in the Elon complex... now you’ll have two choices.” (Brett, [30:49])
• Discussion on Bitcoin’s flat trading (lack of interest, possible impact on price).

7. AI S-1 Breakdown – Cerebras’ Incoming IPO

• Segment Start: [52:50]
• Cerebras aims to raise $3.5B, claims largest chip ever, 15x faster than leading GPUs, $20B partnership with OpenAI, $510M in 2025 revenue projected, targeting 50x sales valuation.
• “I feel like this is the first AI startup that interests me because they’re actually making inroads... [and] maybe they solved a huge bottleneck here.” (Brett, [55:07])
• Both caution the valuation will make it uninvestable for years: “It’s going to take years before this is anywhere close to investable.” (Ryan, [55:16])

8. Semiconductor Super-Cycle & Bubble Watch

• Segment: [56:31]
• Hosts list semiconductor companies in the world’s top market caps, highlighting mega-runs in Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom, Intel, etc.
• “It’s a semiconductor super cycle.” (Ryan, [58:55])
• “I can fault them... It's like throwing money at the roulette wheel.” (Brett, [59:14])

9. Palantir (PLTR) Earnings – Sky-High Numbers, Still Priced for Perfection

• Segment Start: [60:08]
• “Palantir's rule of 40 soared to 145%... momentum surged as we grew 85% last quarter, highest YOY growth rate.” (Alex Karp, press release, [60:28])
• GAAP operating margin 46%, U.S. revenue up 104%, U.S. commercial up 133%.
• Stock down post-earnings: “But the stock’s down because we’re still at 65 times sales. I think that says everything.” (Brett, [61:39])
• Hosts express skepticism on long-term scalability and valuation.

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Ryan Cohen/Compensation: “With the incentive plan... he gets shares based on market cap not per share value... I think he might be fleecing shareholders.” (Brett, [04:15])
• On Remitly Inflection: “Active customers are up 10x over the last six years... It’s a good reminder that great performance is not made by staring at trailing numbers.” (Ryan, [15:02], [15:34])
• On Coupang’s Data Boycott: “People aren’t going to stop using [Rocket Wow delivery] because there was a data leak. Ultimately, the customer value proposition is what matters.” (Ryan, [20:38])
• On Semiconductors: “It’s a semiconductor super cycle.” (Ryan, [58:55])
• On Palantir's Hype: “He sounds like a frat leader... ‘Palantir’s rule of 40 soared to 145%...’ Momentum surged as we grew 85%...” (Brett quoting Alex Karp, [60:28])
• On Cerebras S-1: “Build the largest commercial chip in the history of the computer industry... We use the entire wafer for one chip...” (Host quoting S-1, [53:51])

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Ryan Cohen’s CNBC Interview: [01:24] – [06:34]
• Bubble Watch & AI Memorandums: [06:34] – [08:52]
• Remitly Earnings Recap: [08:52] – [16:12]
• Coupang Earnings Recap: [16:12] – [21:32]
• Uber Earnings & Buybacks: [22:14] – [25:36]
• Grab & Southeast Asia Mobility: [25:36] – [27:02]
• SpaceX/OpenAI IPO & Liquidity Talk: [29:47] – [33:21]
• Listener Qs: Real Brokerage, AI Funding, OpenAI IPO: [33:21] – [35:31]
• Pinterest Buyback Bonanza: [35:31] – [39:12]
• Match Group/Bumble/Snap Commentary: [40:36] – [44:49]
• DoorDash “WALL-E Basket”: [46:25] – [47:56]
• Disney: Parks vs. Entertainment/Video Games: [47:56] – [52:17]
• Cerebras S-1 / AI IPO: [52:50] – [56:31]
• Semiconductor Super-Cycle/Bubble Watch: [56:31] – [60:02]
• Palantir Earnings Breakdown: [60:08] – [63:30]

---

Style & Tone

• Language: Casual, skeptical, and occasionally tongue-in-cheek, but informed.
• Dynamics: The hosts regularly poke fun at market hype (“Nanonuclear is an entirely fake company”), discuss serious analysis (“I love a good profit inflection”), and ground their critiques in numbers and valuation.
• Memorable Bits: “Cult leader, frat, that same thing,” (Alex Karp, [60:28]), “The final boss for autonomous vehicles is mopeds,” (Brett, [27:22]), “It’s so hard to value... what is that worth?” (Ryan discussing semiconductor profits, [59:25]).

---

Conclusion

A data-rich episode covering major earnings, tech leadership shenanigans, and IPO buzz, with sharp skepticism around valuation excess and market narratives. The recurring themes include the importance of buybacks, risk of overhyped sectors, and wariness of anything “priced for perfection.” Energetic back-and-forth and well-placed sarcasm make this episode both informative and entertaining for investors at all levels.

Transcript

[A]

Will The Fed raise rates 25 basis points in June 2026? IBKR prediction markets let you trade the outcome alongside your stocks and options, earn interest, get it right and earn $1 per [e-mail] predictions. Last trading day June 17th.

[B]

Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks, the podcast that helps you find your next great investment. I'm one of your hosts, Ryan Henderson, and I am joined today, as always, by the one and only Brett Schaer. This is our weekly Investing Power hour episode. We are doing this a day early. We typically do this on Thursdays at 5pm Eastern Time, but we're doing it on a Wednesday because Brett's got a trip. So it's earnings palooza again, sort of the second week in a row. Last week we had big tech. This week we've got a number of companies that I think are closely watched by both you and I, Brett. We've got remitly, we've got Coupang, Uber, Door Dash, Palantir, which is kind of a controversial one. We've got an S1 breakdown and plenty more. But before we get into that, I do want to mention if you enjoy these episodes, the best thing you can do for us to help us is to leave a review on Spotify or Apple. Shouldn't take too long. It really means a ton if you're able to do that. Let's get right into it. Brett, where do you want to start today?

[A]

Did you see Ryan Cohen on cnbc?

[B]

Yeah, I haven't loaded up.

[A]

Do you want. Do you want to. Do you want to watch it with the, with the audience? I have it loaded up right now. Couple seconds, maybe 30 seconds with Andrew Ross Sorkin.

[B]

It's a little.

[A]

Come on.

[B]

This is kind of dead air for like two minutes.

[A]

Well, no, it's dead. We're doing. I have it 30 seconds loaded up. I tested it beforehand. All right, we're going to share the screen. GameStop CEO, you ready? I hope. Let's just give it a listen and see what listeners can. They can make their own opinion on what his attitude is in this clip. All right. And, and the 20, as far as I understand, while it's considered a highly confident letter, meaning td, saying they're highly confident that they would provide the financing. It's not locked financing. Yeah, we'll see what happens. I hear you. I understand that. I'm just trying to understand where the rest of the money would come from. Half cash, half stock, half cash. Have stock, Ryan.

[B]

Yeah, if people want, they can go watch the full video if you.

[A]

It's a tough watch.

[B]

It's. It's a very tough watch. Basically. I'll summarize it here. He, Andrew Ross Sorkin asked very reasonable questions about basically, how are you going to afford this acquisition, this proposed acquisition of ebay, which is more like eBay acquiring GameStop because it's, it's much larger. And then he sort of wants ebay to just make him the CEO essentially. But the.

[A]

It's kind of an lbo, right? A little bit. I actually haven't looked at the details much.

[B]

Yeah, that's how I understood it. It's basically cash through debt financing from. I can't remember who their bank is. And then like he said, half cash, half stock.

[A]

Nothing matters. Half cash, half stock. How are you planning to finance the tariff? Fab. Half cash, half stock. How are you planning on financing? Whatever. Yeah, I feel like this joke would go a long ways. I was not enthused by that. I think Michael Burry was as well. He ended up selling GameStop after writing a whole mini baby Berkshire thesis, which I find very confusing. But I guess this, that just screamed red flag for Ryan Cohen. And then another thing I'll mention is, I don't know if you saw this Ryan. It was kind of floating around and I don't know the exact details, but with the incentive plan that Ryan Cohen has, he gets his tranches or whatever for the shares based on market cap of GameStop, not per share value. So, no. Yeah, obviously the guy is gonna go acquire a much larger business in ebay. I think he might be fleecing shareholders a little bit.

[B]

Yeah, I don't think that's too surprising. Again, one of the most important things you can have in compensation hurdles for management teams is a denominator. Make sure it's per share metrics. It's very, very helpful. Or make sure that they are massive shareholders as well. There's a lot that frustrates me about this. It feels like since Cohen has gotten involved with GameStop, there's obviously a lot of GameStop fanatics out there now, or has been for like the last five years, ever since the initial GameStop debacle. And he kind of carries himself like he's Jensen Huang. He's wearing a black leather jacket.

[A]

The leather. Yeah, that's a good point. That's a good point right there.

[B]

And it's just like you, your business is not in video. And I generally think going on a public investing channel or going on TV and talking down to interviewers for reasonable questions. It's one thing if they're like making fun of you or whatever. Andrew Ross Larkin and Becky Quick are both asking reasonable questions in this interview and it's just a terrible look, frankly for Ryan Cohen. I don't know what on earth this whole Baby Berkshire Michael Burry thesis was. I tried reading this. It was so hard to follow. And this acquisition, I hope ebay rejects it, which if I were the eBay CEO, I would reject it in a heartbeat. If I were the ebay board, I would reject it in a heartbeat. They're one of the best share cannibals actually of the last decade. They've reduced their share count. Ebay has reduced their share count by 60% plus over the last 12 years. They've done fine and they're actually kind of holding up well, especially in the last couple of years. It feels like they've done a decent, decent job sort of repositioning their business. So, yeah, I would reject this in a heartbeat.

[A]

Yeah. Comment here. GameStop needs to pivot to designing GPUs. Yeah, that might be a better choice. Maybe. Maybe they'll get desperate and do that. All right, before we get to earnings, I have a. This will take about 30 seconds. I have a press release to read to you. Let me just give it with no context. Nanonuclear Energy, a leading advanced nuclear micromodular reactor and technology company focused on developing clean energy solutions today announced it has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Super Micro Computer, a global leader in high performance, high efficiency server and AI infrastructure solutions. We are going to be taking mini nuclear reactors, Ryan, and we are going to be powering supercomputers like I can. Is this bubble, are we getting to the next level here? I mean both these stocks are up, I think, think like Nanonuclear is up like 30% on this news. This is for anyone that doesn't know an entirely fake company. They don't have any products.

[B]

Well, if you are a fake company without any products, this is what this makes all the sense in the world. Honestly.

[A]

It's a memorandum of understanding. Yeah. What that is, I don't know.

[B]

It's got to be funny. Like whatever these meetings are, whatever these executive meetings are, then being like, okay, AI obviously the next big thing. How do we draw a line from what we're currently doing to that we need to find a way and put it in a memorandum of understanding on our website and pump the crap out of it.

[A]

They go to zero microcomputer we need. You guys could use a partnership and you haven't had a Press release in a while. We could use a partnership. Why don't we just announce something? We're working together and they're just going to send over some intern. I would love to be the intern of one of those projects. What exactly, what exactly are we doing, guys? Dad, don't worry. We're studying nuclear power. We're putting them on the back of semi trucks, theoretically. All right, well that was a bit of the bubble watch. We have maybe some more serious ones with intel and the semi companies that we can talk it to if we have time. We have lots of listener questions but tons of earnings. Ryan, what should we do first?

[B]

Well, my largest holding remitly just reported earnings and I thought this was a great quarter across the board. Obviously I, I tried to keep, I tried as hard as I can to keep the bias out of it but the numbers looked good relative to estimates. So active customers reached 9.6 million. That's up 20% year over year. They were growing 19% roughly last quarter. So this is an acceleration for them. Send volume increased 37% to $22 billion. Revenue totaled 453 million, up 25%. Net income was very solid. Operating margins reached 12% this quarter. So they turned the corner to profitability very quickly. I think it's gone from like 2% operating margins to 12% in the last four quarters. They raised their full year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance so positive across the board. The stock was up 6% after hours. But as I was writing these notes down, Stock has now dropped 4.4percent. So I am curious what was said on the call.

[A]

We're back to, we're back to flat. So I think it might be a little illiquid for after hours trading maybe. It's a pretty small, fairly small company. This isn't Tesla or Apple or anything like that. A lot of the times you see something shoot up or shoot down after hours after a couple of trades and I think in reality what matters is what happens tomorrow or at least I mean that's obviously what you know. That was pretty stating the obvious but.

[B]

No, I agree.

[A]

Good quarter, good quarter all around.

[B]

Yeah, just the guide last year was basically for a big deceleration in growth, especially on the user and volume front. So for them to re accelerate growth here on Q1 is a promising sign. It's the first quarter with the new CEO. So going to read the conference call. Truth be told, I wasn't super convinced in some of his sell side conferences that he attended this quarter but 12% operating margins, I Mean if they, if he likes to, if he wants to keep improving the profit margins, I can get over him not being that convincing at a couple of sell side conferences.

[A]

Yeah, they were putting him in a pretty good position here as a new CEO. I think they reset expectations and I don't think I'm surprised that it's the first quarter and they easily beat. They probably telegraphed that a little bit and you can kind of see the stock moving into the quarter on that. I'm sure people were looking at third party data, all that good stuff and could kind of see that this beat was obvious. But when looking at the actual business, he is also in a good position because it was really not in a position where all right, we need to make any changes. We have to do a big turnaround here. We have to, you know, totally fix the P L because they were already making a lot of progress on this operating leverage and he just had to kind of let that keep going. They have the same marketing engine. I don't think he came in as changed much so far. Maybe he's going to change some tweaks on product development, things like that. That's to be determined. But for right now he can almost just sit back and relax if he wanted to and that's going to be nice because that doesn't put pressure on him as a new executive. Now the last thing I would want to know for remitly is did they buy back any stock?

[B]

Well, this quarter let's do a little check and a shameless plug. I'm going to pull up remitly here on Fiscal AI and the end.

[A]

Ryan, I should mention we are recording this live but it will be coming out Friday morning. Do you want to tell the listeners about the extra spring sale when they get extra discount? If you're tired of us talking about fiscal AI, this is the one. If you're a regular listener, to maybe listen up again to what Ryan is saying.

[B]

Yeah, just if you are listening to this between Thursday, May 7, or even if you're listening to this now, Starting tomorrow, Thursday, May 7th through Thursday, May 14th, our link will get you 25% off instead of the standard 15%. We do basically two discounts a year. So if you've thought about checking it out or upgrading, now would be the time. This is in conjunction with our launch of Brokerage Connections but let's talk remitly here. I'll go to the cash flow statement and quick shout out as well. We are looking at this 40 minutes after the earnings report and all the data is in. This really is kind of one of a kind here. $42 million in buybacks, Brett. Is that what you like to see?

[A]

Yes, that's at least solid. I wonder what price they got that at. The maybe curmudgeon at me was thinking, hey, you had this cash in Q4 when the stock was in the cash the gutter. Why not do that then? But hey, I think the stock is still at a good price. The repurchasing, that's. I think it's going to help with the long term irr. I mean it's just all around really good numbers a lot to like. The margins again as you mentioned already a 12% gap. These are not adjusted numbers. I believe there is room to get to 20 to 30%. And for anyone's wondering, it's the stock I will be covering on the newsletter this week. So if you want more full detailed analysis, you know, thousand, two thousand words or so on that, the link for that will be in the show notes. What, what chart are you looking at? Right here.

[B]

Active customers are up 10x over the last six years. That, that plus a little. Let's pull up the operating income chart here. This is maybe my favorite kind of chart.

[A]

You like this one?

[B]

I love a good operating. I love a good profit inflection. And you've seen them turn the corner at this point going from basically negative $28 million in operating earnings three years ago to positive 54 today. Yeah, this, it's a good reminder of alpha or great performance is not made by just staring at trailing numbers and saying, oh, this looks cheap on a face multiple. It's getting to know the business really well and having some idea of what the next 18 months look like. Next 18 months, three years, whatever you want to call it. I think for both of us with ormitly it was in that ballpark. It was one where the path to profitability was pretty clear. And I don't want to take any victory laps yet because it's not been that great.

[A]

This stock might crash tomorrow. But it seems good so far.

[B]

Yeah, stock's up, I think 80% or so over the last three months. So seems like other people are catching onto the story as well. Do we want to shift gears, talk coupang as well?

[A]

Sure. Coupang one that went in the opposite direction today. Let's see where it closed at. I actually also did Mercado Libre report. Let's. Let's put a pin in that one. We'll. We'll talk coupon forth. Yeah. 13 down today. Not the best numbers. I saw Ryan was talking to me earlier. He didn't like them. I, I guess I read him in isolation. Well, you said you were a little disappointed is kind of what I was getting the vibe from you. Yeah, I read them. I thought it was okay. A lot of listeners I guess were talking to us in the substack chat. They didn't like it either. I guess we can go through the figures and kind of try to put some context around what happened. They had revenue up 8% year over year, both in real and constant currency to $8.5 billion. Slight gross margin compression. Both are explainable here for the decel and revenue growth and the gross margin compression because the data leak boycott, I would think this is going to get turned around quickly. They talked about on the call that they already had plans to invest in more infrastructure but when the data boycott daily boycott came in, they had, you know, less demand over the same amount of fixed costs. So that decreased their margins a bit. And that's how they've lost money in Q1 because they're on the, they said they're on the road to recovery. I think they have 80% of their subscribers back from that data lake. So we're pretty much just a couple months out from that. Well sitting here in May, maybe five or six months out from that now and it looks like we're putting that finally in the rear view mirror. The one thing we want to look at, and this is what they talked about so we want to make sure that it actually happens in the next few quarters is the revenue reacceleration to, you know, they kind of are. They're not a rapid grower, but the 10 to 20% range and it's not like the business is in distress. They're still operating cash flow positive, free cash flow positive, giving them plenty of room to pour capital new initiatives. I think the one new note speaking of buybacks, every listener knows we love our buybacks. $391 million spent on the buyback in Q1. That is 1% of outstanding shares in a single quarter by their market cap today. Active customers down sequentially but only1.1 million down from the peak in Q1. I do have a nice fiscal AI chart that illustrates that. Other things they talked about, they said Taiwan, they're going to keep pushing aggressively because they're seeing success there. So there's going to be upfront losses. And then the second thing from a product perspective is that they are launching Rocket now or expanding Rocket now in Japan. I don't know really what that is. They're a secretive company, but that's one thing I want to look at further, I guess to keep tabs on the company this quarter.

[B]

Will The Fed raise rates 25 basis points in June 2026 at IBKR prediction Markets? The the yes recently traded at $0.05 while the no traded at $0.90. But the markets can change quickly. Trade prediction markets on political climate and economic events with simple yes or no prediction style contracts where prices reflect probability. Explore trending data, spot the trends and if you get your prediction right, you earn $1 per contract at settlement plus you'll earn a 3.14% APY on your investment with an interest like incentive coupon and you'll get $3 for signing up with IBKR Prediction Markets, which you can use for any purpose or to start trading. Prediction contracts are not suitable for all investors. Go to ibkr.com predictions and turn your views into IBKR Prediction contracts today. Last trading day for this contract is June 17th. Yeah, I think the conference call's probably more important than the actual press release here because a lot's happened since the end of the quarter. The commentary from management is that I believe 80% of the rocket wow subscribers that churned related to the data incident have since come back and are spending just the same as they would. Brett and I were talking about it this morning. Basically this data. First of all, the data leak was overblown and obviously whatever, they should invest more in their security. But they made it sound like it was way bigger than it was. The actual issue didn't seem that large, but nonetheless I guess any data leak is trouble. But people aren't going to like think about the Rocket Wow delivery or what is it? Rocket Fresh, the overnight delivery service that Coupang has where you can order before midnight and get products delivered to your door before 7am Are you going to stop? Are you going to go out and start buying your groceries on Your own at 1am? If you're using that service because there was a data leak, it feels like ultimately the customer value proposition is what plays what is the most important in the long run. So bit of a bummer of the quarter just because it was it's never fun to see a big deceleration in revenue growth, even if there's, you know, reasoning behind it. But I think when I look at my portfolio, this is still one of the most competitively advantaged businesses that I own and it's not really when I plan to sell on any sort of short term turbulence.

[A]

I agree yeah, and the stock is down and I think it looks very, very, very cheap right now. I don't know if my video is frozen for you, Ryan. My. Does it look okay?

[B]

Does look frozen at the moment.

[A]

Yeah. I'm not sure. There's. Our WI fi has been strong. This is the same thing, full disclosure that happened in Ryan's screen this morning. Maybe it's the software program that we're using, but our WI fi speed seems strong either way. You can hear me, right?

[B]

I can hear you. Do you want. You can maybe try to reconnect real quick and I can go through Uber's earnings.

[A]

I'll still have my mic here. I just have the video.

[B]

Okay. Yeah. Taking a look at Uber's earnings, they big jump this morning. The fastest bookings. They reported their fastest bookings growth in four years. And Brett and I both talked about how on a previous show there's this new service that launched in New York that's meant to be sort of the discounted Uber. They're trying to counter position themselves again, probably a microscopic amount of volume relative to Uber, but I think Uber pricing has kind of come into kind of been on the h hot seat over the last year or so. And that was sort of the focus of this call from Uber's management team. So apparently they generated some cost savings from their insurance business. So basically they insure drivers for accidents and, and any issues that they might incur. And they generated more cost savings than they were expecting. They said they are, which I did find this a little funny. It's hard to tell whether this is true or not. But they said, as always, we reinvested these cost savings into lower prices for customers. Which as always was kind of like, okay, I don't know if I buy that. But apparently it did re accelerate growth in trips in some key markets, especially LA and California. People are riding a lot more actively now with some of the investments in lower prices. Margin expansion continues. This looked like a pretty solid quarter across the board. I haven't gotten into the call to see any AV commentary, but when you've got bookings growing, I think think it was high 20% range. That's a strong sign for Uber. The take rate came down a bit, I believe. Lowest take rate in 4ish years. So lowering the take rate a bit, accelerating bookings growth, get people addicted to the rides, get people using the service as much as they can and kind of building that habit, I think that that's a good quarter for them.

[A]

Yeah, it's a business where the next few quarters. There's really no signs that they're going to slow down. Like the numbers are going to be good. It isn't that tricky situation similar as a software businesses where as long as some of these AV startups are experiencing hyper growth, it's like there's just going to be that narrative no matter how good Uber is doing. Do you have maybe you mentioned here, I don't know if you have it in your notes again the theme of this show, the buyback. Because if they stay relatively cheap, you know they've been growing sustainably and durably and the stock hasn't gone much of anywhere in the last year or so. If it keeps staying stagnant, I mean the value is going to be created in returning capital to shareholders.

[B]

I will check that buyback now. Brett. Yep. $3 billion in buybacks this quarter which pretty sizable. That's. That's more than the free cash flow that they generated and that's the most they've bought back in quite a long time. So.

[A]

All right, an acceleration. Now do we want to take any listener questions? We have a lot in the chat here.

[B]

Yeah, I see one about Grab which maybe ties into the Uber discussion as well. Grab reported earnings I believe on Monday. For those that don't know, Grab is basically the Uber of Southeast Asia. Most of their revenue and earnings comes from grab deliveries and grab mobility. They've kind of been on the hot seat lately because Indonesia announced some government. I believe it's like some sort of a regulatory issue. Maybe you can double check on on what exactly it was Brett. But it's meant for two wheel vehicles which are supposedly popular on in Indonesia however and it affected the stock grabs. Management team came out immediately on the conference call and was like two wheel trips account for 6% of our trips in Indonesia. So it's a tiny percentage of one market that they operate in. Seems like they're going to be pretty unaffected by this. They've continued basically their path to profitability and growth accelerated revenue growth accelerated in every single division for them. Financial services, mobility and deliveries.

[A]

Seems like a shareholder. Are you a shareholder now?

[B]

I am not. It's probably the highest thing on my watch list. Honestly. I had a little trouble getting comfortable with evaluation. But I like the management team. It seems like the AV risk is lower over there given some of the

[A]

insanity motorcycles you got to deal with the mopeds. That's. That's the. The final boss for the, for the autonomous vehicles. Here's what I have is that they did introduce it's like a strict cap on commissions of 8% versus 15 to 20%. So if that was the entire business for Grab, yeah, that could really hurt them. But as you mentioned, straight strange rule and it's not going to crush them. I'd still like this. The direction the government's going there is a bit concerning. You do not want ride sharing being regulated like the city of Seattle where prices just go crazy and businesses go down. No one makes money. The supply, supply and demand imbalance begins. So I guess the number is less concerning than maybe what the government is thinking. And if they don't like Grab.

[B]

Yeah, you don't really want that relationship between Grab and the local governments. But the, and I think it's different depending on the market. So maybe Indonesia is a little more confrontational with some of these companies. Whereas I think it's Malaysia is the market that Grabs started in. Apparently Anthony Tan is quite close with political leaders over there and they said like you single handedly improved our employment numbers. Grab did by a wide margin. So I think they're, they're a little closer in that market. The thing that stood out and I imagine there's a lot of maybe western hemisphere investors in Grab that are like what's the AV risk? And the CFO of Grab on the conference call was like there isn't one.

[A]

Basically there is no pretty yearly, let's say that's a 2045 risk for them.

[B]

Yeah, seems like a long shot at the moment. I do like, I like Uber, I like Grab. I like both the business models because I think there's a big network effect there and there's big advantages to the rider and driver supply being sort of being the leader in local markets with that. So Grab yeah, remains at the top of my watch list.

[A]

Okay, other listener questions. Do you think the SpaceX IPO will mark the top and potentially even crash markets by sucking up liquidity from other meme names such as Tesla crashing the market. I'm not sure if it's going to mark the absolute top. I think it's plausible. There's usually big thematic names that kind of go public to mark the end of a boom cycle.com 2021 other periods. You can go way farther in history. I think what you know, that's, that's to be determined. We'll see. But regarding sucking out liquidity, I think that is a very plausible thesis and I would think that's likely to happen because it's so big, so many people want to own this thing regardless of the valuation that there's just going to have to be attention drawn from here. I mean, I was talking, I think, in our subscriber chat the other day, listener chat, about how just the attention paid to Bitcoin is probably down 95% from highs. No one really seems to care anymore. They moved on to other shiny objects. And that is, I would guess, sucking liquidity out of the bitcoin price. I don't really know how to describe that. It's just kind of a trading vehicle and it's going to other things, prediction markets, what have you. I think SpaceX and even we get OpenAI and anthropic. Those can crowd out some of the other meme names as well. If you're an investor in the Elon complex, if you're Elon lover, you can invest in Tesla right now. But now you'll have two choices. So I think that thesis does make sense.

[B]

Yeah, I'm kind of on board with it too. And something I was thinking about with, with Bitcoin is it's been basically between, I want to double check, make sure this range is correct, between, I don't know, ninety thousand and seventy thousand for the last three, four months. I think the worst thing, if you're optimistic about Bitcoin, the worst thing that can happen is the price just staying flat because it, yeah, there's no energy. At least if it drops a bunch, there's the, oh, this is a generational buying opportunity, like, you know, like a flash crash kind of, you might get some rebound. Or if it's solar rain, obviously that, that kind of helps the momentum as well. But if people get bored with it and there isn't any fundamental reason people are using it, I think that's an issue. And I do agree about SpaceX potentially stealing shareholders from Tesla. I think that's probably why Elon might be eager to blend the two because he doesn't want, he doesn't want to have that risk. Like, I could certainly see a world in which someone's been a Tesla shareholder for five years and they say, oh, I've made my money here. I'm, I'm on to Space X now. Let's, let's buy the thing growing. Well, maybe not five, but 10 years.

[A]

Ten years. You've done quite well. Yeah. I can't tell you the last time. Well, can't tell you the last time I thought about Bitcoin and I can't tell you what the price is at all. I have no clue. I mean, it's in between like 40 and 100, but that's a wide range.

[B]

It feels like less people are talking about it, honestly. Yeah, maybe that's my echo chamber, but I haven't heard as many people mentioning it.

[A]

Who knows? We get listeners that like bitcoin. I know there's probably some out there. I hope we mark the bottom for you.

[B]

Do we want to take some more questions here, Brett, this one's kind of one for you. Have you picked up any new details or insights on the real brokerage ReMax merger?

[A]

Nothing else, just the conference call they had discussing it. Just reading through what it is. I have to look more deeply into the ReMax business. I'll probably do that when I have a company update on the real brokerage. And I believe this week or next week the real brokerage reports its earnings. I'm sure there'll be plenty of questions about that, but it's really a wait and see to see what their strategy will be. Is it just acquiring these agents? Are they going to let the ReMax model sit? I'm not too concerned that the stock kind of is falling off a little bit. It's one for me. High risk, high reward position. Set it and forget it. See what happens.

[B]

A couple other questions here, some from Tyler. One of them says, do you guys think. Do you guys think going public will allow the AI labs to fund themselves enough to pay for data center contracts?

[A]

Don't know. I'm going to give that a big tbd.

[B]

I'm sure they would raise a ton of money. So is it going to be enough? I don't know. This is their window, though. And there's another question earlier. He says, do you guys think OpenAI will actually be able to IPO this year?

[A]

No, I'm going to say no on that one.

[B]

Yeah, I'm in agreement there. They've got to have. They probably account for 500 billion of the $1.5 trillion out there in cloud commitments right now.

[A]

I saw a data point that over 50% of the backlog for the hyperscalers are anthropic and OpenAI.

[B]

Yeah, there you go. And I'm pretty sure like almost 50% for Microsoft is exclusively OpenAI.

[A]

That's probably true. Yeah.

[B]

Yeah, it's. I just don't think it's going to happen. I would love to see the S one of some of these businesses because it would give us a better perspective on what does compute costs actually look like relative to what they're bringing in. I've got a couple news items here that I think are quick, fun ones. Pinterest bought back 14% of its shares outstanding this quarter. I don't know if you saw this Brett. They. They bought back $2 billion worth of stock this quarter. The market cap was basically around 10 to 11 billion throughout the quarter. Might have been a little higher. So literally reduced share count by 14% in a single quarter. They still have another $2 billion remaining on that share repurchase authorization. My guess here, without having looked too deeply at the balance sheet, is that this is some sort of levered buyback. Maybe they issued convertible notes. I'm doubtful that they just had $5 billion sitting on their balance sheet. But any interest in Pinterest?

[A]

No. Nice, nice rhyme there. The. Yeah, they did add a billion dollars in debt. It looks like using fiscally I long term debt went up, but they did have like close to $3 billion in cash at the peak. So not bad. No, no interest. It maybe like if it's five times earnings and a net, but I just own. Why, why own this?

[B]

It's. It has been durable. Like active users have been consistently growing for I want to say seven years now.

[A]

They have, what is it? Maus. Total maus?

[B]

Yeah, I think that's the metric they track. Most of it I believe is outside the United States. Now my. I've got some anecdotal evidence with this one as well. It seems very. Yeah, there was a big bump during COVID sort of a Covid bullwhip and then they've since continued to grow. What are they at now? What is that? 6200-006316-31000,000 active users. Those active users are loading tons of images and ideas. Basically it is a real network effect. Honestly. Like I've. I've seen this with other people that use it. They go there for ideas from creative, from other users. It's basically like a poor man's Instagram in a way. Or maybe like a more productive Instagram. It does need to be a little cheap, cheaper from here. They haven't been able to monetize in terms of ads that well and I don't really have that much faith that they're going to be able to increase ARPU from here on out.

[A]

Yeah, I was being a little bit tongue in cheek with saying it needs to be a net net. But you're trading at EV to sales at 2.7 now. But you look at the EV to EBITDA, it's 39 PE 44. Stop buying back stock, Clean up the income statement first or do both at the same time. Like what are These people for. I'm sorry, if you can't turn that amount of revenue. And given this type of business model, Meta is able to finance just absurd projects and they have 40 to 50% margins on an equivalent business that funds everything else. I think Pinterest can get there.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. My. Without. Maybe I'll just do a quick check. My guess is they spend a ton of money on. Well, not money technically, but they spend a lot on stock based compensation. Yeah. $231 million in SBC this quarter compared to 300 million in free cash flow. So. Yeah.

[A]

And it's common size, the percentage. Yeah. All right. 34% of revenue is spent on R&D, $1.5 billion. Where is similar to Snap. You just go, what? Where is the money going?

[B]

Snap's the worst. To be clear, Snap is the worst. But did you. I don't know if we ever talked about this, but did you see that Evan Spiegel, like, went to Coachella and took.

[A]

Oh, that was that photo.

[B]

Took a bunch of selfies with.

[A]

That was the selfie of him that was at the music festival. Lovely. Yeah, that's bullish.

[B]

And the next day he laid off like 15% of his staff or something like that.

[A]

I've had an epiphany. Mind bending epiphany.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. Anyways, I'd buy Pinterest before I bought Snap. Let's just say that. And I thought they had an activist. Yeah. It just seems. Same old story for them. Maybe the buyback will help. I don't love it.

[B]

Did you read the Match Group report?

[A]

Briefly. Read the press release. Anything of note?

[B]

Nothing really to know. I will say this is one of those, you know, where sometimes you. You sell a company and you're just so happy to not have to read. You can read the reports for fun, but you're happy to not have a stake in it when they release Earnings Match Group's one of those for me. User growth or payer growth is slowing at hinge. Payers continue to decline at Tinder, which. That might be the biggest fall from grace of any mobile app ever.

[A]

But Ryan, they launched Astrology Mode.

[B]

I don't know that's gonna save the business.

[A]

Honestly, that's actually gonna work, but I don't think it's gonna save the business.

[B]

They are winding down Archer, which was meant to be their Grinder competitor, and paying users across their Evergreen and emerging portfolio continue to decline. I put here Evergreen and Emerging appears to be neither Evergreen or emerging.

[A]

Yeah, good point. What was the other app they're investing in instead of Archer.

[B]

I can't remember. They had a whole bunch in the emerging portfolio. They were starting to build a whole bunch that were hyper targeted. There was one that was for 50 year old like oh, single, single parents.

[A]

Yeah, that wasn't. Wasn't a bad idea.

[B]

Yeah, they're all the right idea. I just.

[A]

Oh yeah. They invested a hundred million dollars in Sniffies.

[B]

What?

[A]

That's the company names. Yeah.

[B]

What is Sniffy? Is this magic?

[A]

Oh, is this. It's the replacement for Archer.

[B]

Yeah. Oh my gosh.

[A]

It's a funny name. Let's just put it that.

[B]

What I don't understand what is going on in the online dating industry. It's just like the industry seems to be dying or stagnating at a minimum. Like the.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Bumble Tinder have had payer declines for the last four years. Maybe it's just like an insane Covid bullwhip that they're still on. A hangover from Hinge is like. It feels like the only app growing I think.

[A]

Well one. Yes, that's. That's a key there. I think one of the dirty little secrets was that there was a lot of fake users and they clamped down on those. This episode is brought to you by Prime Obsession is in session. And this summer prime originals have everything you want. Steam, dreamy romances, irresistible love stories. And the book to screen favorites you've already read twice off campus. Elle every year after the love Hypothesis. Sterling point and more slow burns, second chances chemistry you can feel through the screen. Your next obsession is waiting. Watch only on Prime.

[B]

I mean that's good but yeah, that might have helped their payers.

[A]

Exactly, exactly. It held their. Yeah, I think that's what I mean by dirty little secret. The revenue per pair can be dynamic there where you get more prepare. You know they can go up by like 2x and maybe your activities there. I. I just want consistent activity metrics from these companies because that's the key at the end of the day. So. And we're not seeing that. We're not seeing that at all.

[B]

Is there any company that has come out of the IAC complex and turned into a real like leader in their industry? I guess Massive is a leader, but

[A]

who Expedia is all right. How's their stock done?

[B]

It's all right, but they kind of.

[A]

Yeah, booking.

[B]

I guess they kind of lost a very valuable market.

[A]

Yeah, they own vrbo. I don't know. Let's look at revenues for Expedia. Not bad, not bad. It looks all Right. It's still a compounder. I mean it's just a great industry to be in. It's grown at 10% since the last 20 years. 10% annual growth last 20 years and you have a pandemic in the middle of it, let's say Expedia. Hey, give IAC some credit, Angie.

[B]

Sure. Angie. No Match group. No, but bumble technically a part of that complex. No, just feels like that the strategy of taking a whole bunch of disparate systems, throwing them into one pile and, and taking it public doesn't lead to good long term outcomes.

[A]

Oh yeah, they, they're doing a whole thing now. They, they separated everything like three years ago at Match Group into the separate divisions. They're combining everything back together.

[B]

Of course.

[A]

Yeah, it's probably the right thing to do. Can you guess the share price of IAC as of this writing or as of this recording?

[B]

I have no idea. Like I actually it was what, 40, 42? I would have a better chance of guessing total returns over the last five years. Let's go with that. I'm going to go ahead and guess that they are down.

[A]

Oh, it's down like 50%. Yeah, something like that. Told return last five years, cumulative negative 66.6%. Well, do the sign of the cross there. That's unlucky. True. Down 66.6%. Yeah, well, it's like you said, when the businesses aren't doing well, you know

[B]

what's maybe the best thing that's come out of iec? Dara. Dara. Sure,

[A]

they're fine.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Doordash reported earnings. Not really a whole lot to say here. They reported them today, so I haven't had a chance to read the call, but marketplace order value up 37% year over year. I've discovered through posting on social media that some people truly hate doordash.

[A]

Yeah, I thought I disliked it. The fire community like it. But yeah, they, there's people that really dislike that. Oh, are you saying the fire community like retire early? Oh yeah. It's a waste of money. But let me see if you think this is a good idea. The wall E basket. Doordash as the leader. You know the movie Wall Egg Pixar.

[B]

Oh, like the people sit in dystopian.

[A]

Yeah, they're sitting in the chair with the trash just watching clips. Meta Doordash. Boom. I think that's fine.

[B]

Doordash Honestly, Amazon probably in there too. Amazon cart maybe.

[A]

No, no, no, no. That's. You have to make the food, you have to get out of the Chair.

[B]

Oh yeah, good point. Entertainment, Netflix.

[A]

Netflix, yeah. But the key is Meta Meta and door dash. I honestly think Wally laziness basket as a concept. I think Door dash. Yeah, like I don't like it but you can't fight the truth. They put up good results.

[B]

Disney reported earnings this morning. Nothing really crazy to report here, honestly. Solid quarter, I think. Stock jumped today. All three of the divisions, entertainment, experiences and sports accelerated relative to last quarter. But the growth is all single digits in each of the categories. But maybe 11, maybe it was 11% in entertainment. Maybe you can double check that for me. My question for you is, would you ever own Disney?

[A]

Oh yeah, at the right price. The parks are great. Entertainment I think is going to face a really long headwind because YouTube video games short form content has just taken over. And if we look at sports, tough, Amazon, Apple, a lot of there's headwinds across the board but Barks are quite profitable maybe and hopefully they're trading above this right now. So I don't want to be forced to not buy them. But in a vacuum, let's say I had cash and I could either invest in treasury bills or Disney. If they're trading at 12 times parks earnings, I feel like that's nice. That's not bad.

[B]

Yeah, I was going to say I would have to buy it as if I'm only buying the parks business and then I'm okay with enter because my assumption is basically that I don't know what earnings are going to look like for the entertainment division. I don't know what earnings are going to look like for sports. If maybe they're negative earners. Honestly that that possibility is out there. I do like the experiences.

[A]

Yeah, go, go ahead. And then I have something that might cool your enthusiasm.

[B]

Do you see any risk to the experience, like to the parks, Disneyland, Disney World? In a world where entertainment, the entertainment brands aren't as relevant?

[A]

I mean that's a, that's a tough question. But the parks themselves, the brand is strong. I mean you talk to people again, I'm, I've been in South America for all of 2026. The people like, hey, you been in the United States? I like to ask questions. You ever been to the United States? You know, conversation starter or where you been or where do you want to go in the United States? They always say New York and Disneyland, Disney World. Those are the two, these are adults,

[B]

two most expensive places in America.

[A]

Honestly, I tell them, well, keep saving. Yeah, the hardest part is going to be the trip, not the Visa. Yeah, no, I think the brand is strong. But I was reading the Wall Street Journal this morning. The new CEO says he wants to embrace and keep investing in video games. Which is big.

[B]

Ought o yeah, video games horribly difficult business. I was looking at EA the other day because they reported earnings bookings have gone nowhere in five years for that business and they have had. They've got a gold mine in what was FIFA is now fc. That should be a business that's easy. Easy to run.

[A]

Yeah. I think outside of you know basic Candy Crush style games outside of the Roblox is the world over the next few years the. Okay, there's sports. Yeah yeah, that's pretty stable. But it's going to be dominated by Nintendo and Grand Theft Auto five or six. Right. Those are going to be the two. Those are going to dominate everything else. I feel like is on their back footing.

[B]

Yeah. Is Bob Iger still around with Disney?

[A]

No. New CEO. New CEO. He. The new CEO came in but is

[B]

he involved in any way?

[A]

Probably his ghost is going to be involved when he's dead.

[B]

He still has. He still has the CEO's office.

[A]

He's gonna have. Yeah. When he's. When he's passed away he's gonna. His ghost is gonna be on the board of directors.

[B]

I think I will Cons I would consider a Disney position if it traded at similar to what you said 12, maybe even a little more like 15 times parks earnings. If Bob Iger is not involved in any way whatsoever if that is the case because it's just like I. I just think he's bad for the culture to move on and move into the new era. Do we have any other Zillow Cerebras?

[A]

You heard of this company? The Cerebras S1?

[B]

Yeah. Let's do it.

[A]

This is going to relate. I got Cerebras and then little bubble watch on semiconductor companies because I think people will be surprised the number of semiconductor companies in the top 25 largest market caps in the world. But quickly Cerebras going public on May 13th I believe this has been a fast growing startup. They're signing a lot of commitments and it's really exciting, at least to me because people know about the problems with bandwidth communicating across chips, memory, all the stuff that is quote unquote the bottleneck of the AI revolution. Cerebra says they can help solve this with their new giant chips. Really that's all it is for anyone. That's not tech at all. They're just big chips that can just work better. Here's A quote from the S1. The enemy of speed is, is communication latency. And since communication is thousands of times faster on chip than across chips, the best way to reduce latency is to keep communication on chip. They're teaching us like we're fifth graders.

[B]

That's.

[A]

I mean, that's clear stuff right there. Our answer. Yeah, our answer. Build the largest commercial chip in the history of the computer industry. We use the entire wafer for one chip, a technique called wafer scale integration. So for the wafer, there's a standard wafer size for like tsmc. And then you cut it down so you can't go bigger than that. I guess that's their limit today, I guess. Really, you know, it's bigger, better. I guess it is. And apparently they're 15 times faster than leading GPU solutions. They have a $20 billion partnership with OpenAI. They have a partnership with AWS. Could be a huge beneficiary of the AI inference boom. $510 million in revenue in 2025 compared to close to a standing start a few years back. Have huge commitments, 40% gross margin. Losing money today. But that's because of immense R and D spend, which makes sense. The plan to raise $3.5 billion IPO. I think they're expected to come out at like 50 times sales. So of course, you know, keep it on the watch list. Never invest in an ipo. But I feel like this is the first AI startup that interests me because one, they're actually making inroads in what seems to be the semiconductor space that seems to be dominated by just giant companies, which is really hard to do. And second, maybe they solved a huge bottleneck here. And it seems like some of the hyperscalers think so as well.

[B]

It is interesting, but I think this is going to be so far from a reasonable price when this comes out that it's going to take years maybe before this is anywhere close to investable.

[A]

Don't say that.

[B]

Think about the software. Think about the software SPAC boom in 2021. We were looking at, and this will be on an episode next week, we were looking at Bill Holdings. Bill.com very standard billing software platform, traded 100 times sales. I've got a feeling the semiconductors are, I guess the software of this cycle, it seems like end.

[A]

I would not be able to grow faster.

[B]

They 100 times sales. I. I bet will.

[A]

Oh yeah, in here. Yeah. They're projecting 25. Maybe it pops. Sorry. They're projecting $25 billion, which would be about 50 times sales. So maybe it pops to 100 times sales. We'll see. But either way, yeah, it's going to be expensive. I hope they keep growing and then there's a market crash and we get able to buy them. All right, you want to talk bubble watch? Can we put intel on bubble watch?

[B]

Well, hold on.

[A]

Their stock price.

[B]

Yeah, Insane. We got to talk Palantir.

[A]

All right, we, we have time for both. How about related to the semiconductors? Intel First $560 something billion dollars market cap. What are they up in the last year? 467% as the meme goes. Real patriots owned Intel. I guess we all going to get a tax return because they forced that stake into the company. There was a rumor that Apple was going to use them. Correct. This is what caused them to gain $200 billion.

[B]

Yeah, I think it was that Apple is having that they are considering diversifying away from Taiwan Semiconductor to Samsung and intel, which may have just been sort of a. I don't know how much of that is like optics to wean off of tsmc. But that is the rumor. I'm sharing the chart now. Yeah, it is up. You said it. 462% in one year. They got to issue stock.

[A]

Right. I posted I think on either substack or something that they need to do a $50 billion at the money offer. I think that's just the right move to do. Raise some money. They need it. Okay, before we get to Palantir, tell me if this smells like froth. All right. I'm going to go through the largest companies in the world and I'm going to even exclude big tech because they're not pure play semiconductors. But these are the ones going from highest market cap to lowest that are semiconductor or semiconductor related businesses. 1. Nvidia 6. TSMC 7. Broadcom. Broadcom has a $2 trillion market cap. 11. Samsung. 16. SK Hynix. 17. Micron 18. AMD 21. ASML 22. Intel. That's almost as big as big tech.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And then there is within the Amazon, Microsoft Alphabet of the world, they have their own chip development.

[B]

It's a semiconductor super cycle.

[A]

Oh God. Okay.

[B]

I mean the earnings will be insane this year.

[A]

Yeah, this year. Yeah, I agree.

[B]

Which it's. I don't know. It's kind of hard to fault investors.

[A]

Like what I can fault them. It just stop with the fomo. It's not. You can get lucky or it could end poorly. It's like throwing money at the roulette wheel.

[B]

It's so hard to value like let's say Micron. Let me pull up the estimates here. I'm pretty sure Micron is expected to produce, I want to say 100 something million dollars in operating income. Let me just shout out to fiscal AI here they are expected to produce $134 billion in operating income in 2027. Granted, we don't know what's going to happen here, but 80 billion this year, 134 billion next year. What is that worth? What price does that deserve? Because I honestly don't know.

[A]

So hard. Yeah, I put in the two art, pile it. If you want to make money on them, go right ahead. All right, we got two minutes. Palantir earnings keeps crushing it. Incredible numbers. And of course our guy Alex Karp has. He's got a way with words, doesn't he? He sounds like a frat leader from a. Doesn't he?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Okay, here's the quote. Cult leader, frat, that same thing. All right, quote Palantir's rule of 40 score has soared to 145%. This is an official press release, by the way. We have shattered this metric, A feat matched only by other fellow AI infrastructure companies, Nvidia, Micron and SK Hynix. Momentum surged as we grew 85% last quarter, our highest year over year growth rate. But more than doubling our US business. Now we are raising our full year guidance to 71% growth. 10 points ahead of our guidance from last quarter. Driven by our confidence in an AI and accelerating US market. Now this is tame for him. He said he wants to send like drone strikes at short sellers, I believe, which I should be afraid of. I full disclosure, I am short stock, so I don't know if I should be concerned. I'm glad he's not working in the US government, but I'm sure he was joking. All right, Here are the numbers. 85% revenue growth, 16% quarter over quarter, U.S. revenue up 104%. U.S. commercial 133%. GAAP operating margin 46%. But the stock's down because we're still at 65 times sales. I think that says everything.

[B]

Yeah, the numbers were truly like out. Outrageous. So operating margins. Oh, I want to pull up the exact numbers here. You said 46%. Keep in mind, a year ago operating margins were at, sorry, checking this really quick 20%. So operating margins went from 20% to 46%. Revenue growth was 85%, which is I think their 13th quarter in a row of acceleration like this. And they blew estimates out of the water. Doesn't Matter stock's down.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Because the valuation, it's priced in. I guess the more than priced in.

[A]

Oh, look, I was there at $5 billion, I think in last whole month revenue. If that 5 x's to 25 billion over 5 years feels optimistic, but maybe plausible. I mean they're in a niche market, so I'm not sure how big this business can get, but let's say they get a $25 billion and 50% operating margin or net income margin. That's 12 and a half billion dollars in revenue. I believe I was doing this from Motley fool article. That's something like a PE of 30, maybe high 20. So what, you earn nothing. If they're trading at a market multiple or, you know, a pretty premium multiple in a vacuum, it's just not going to work. And I think people are scared of the D cell. It's coming.

[B]

Yeah. At some point it has to.

[A]

Right. The.

[B]

Yeah. I still couldn't tell you what to do.

[A]

Analytics. It's just analytics.

[B]

Analytics. I mean I could, Yeah, I could throw buzzwords out there, but I couldn't really tell you what they do.

[A]

Uh, yeah, they help. They bring. I, I think honestly they have the

[B]

word data fusion in there.

[A]

Yeah, something like that. They, yeah, they, they, they deploy these software at enterprises and it's supposed systems together. It's supposed to be mysterious. That's part of their brand. Like, oh, you need to try us out. And I think that's what's happening. A lot of commercial customers are doing so. All right. Anything else before we get out of here, Ryan?

[B]

No, I think we're running up on time. We. Well, we did have one question and I want you to give me. You can only get. Has to be one word answers for each of these. I'm going to play value value play versus value trap. First one crocs, I guess. Two word answers.

[A]

All right.

[B]

Yeah. They play duolingo trap.

[A]

PayPal. God, that's tough Trap.

[B]

Yeah, I'd probably agree with all three of those.

[A]

What about they have United health here?

[B]

Well, UnitedHealth has already kind of rebounded. Made its way out, if I'm not mistaken, of the Value Trap territory or the Value Play territory. I think the stock's up quite a bit.

[A]

And good earnings from Oscar help too, but no time to talk about it today.

[B]

That is going to do it. Thank you everyone for tuning in. We want to remind you that Brett and I are not financial advisors. Anything we say or discuss here on Chit Chat stocks is not formal advice or a recommendation. We may buy, sell, or hold any of the securities discussed in this podcast. So please do your own work. Thank you again for tuning in. We'll see you all next time. I finally had a light bulb moment about a stock we've all heard about growing at 18% a year and a 15 pen. I shared this insight in a special Deep Dive report to subscribers of my research service, Value Spotlight. The report is called A Generational Moment, Reigniting Human Connections through a tangible network of Intangible assets. Chit chat listeners can get a discount to my [e-mail] that's stock W R I-T-E-U-P.com.