Chit Chat Stocks Podcast Summary
Episode Title: Remitly's Remarkable Gains; OpenAI Hits $500 Billion Valuation; Is Amazon Losing The Cloud Wars?
Hosts: Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer
Release Date: August 8, 2025

1. Cloud Providers Earnings and the Cloud Wars

Overview:
Ryan and Brett delved into the recent earnings reports of the major cloud providers—Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. The discussion centered on growth rates, market share dynamics, and strategic positioning in the evolving cloud landscape.

Key Points:

• Growth Rates:

  • Microsoft Azure is leading with the highest growth rate among the big three, followed by Google Cloud, while AWS shows the slowest growth despite being the largest player.
  • Brett highlighted that Azure reported a significant jump in quarterly revenue, reinforcing its competitive edge.

• Market Share and AI Workloads:

  • Ryan observed that AWS’s slower growth might indicate a loss of market share to Azure and Google Cloud, especially in AI-driven workloads.
  • However, Brett countered that the majority of Azure's growth is still attributed to legacy cloud migrations rather than AI initiatives, citing Satya Nadella’s quote:

    “We continue to lead the AI infrastructure wave and took share every quarter this year.” ([09:51])

• Analyst Insights:

  • They referenced JP Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth’s challenging questions to AWS CEO Andy Jassy regarding AWS’s competitive stance, leading to a significant drop in Amazon’s market capitalization.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([05:02]):

  “It was probably one of the most costly responses in conference call history.”

• Satya Nadella ([09:51]):

  “We continue to lead the AI infrastructure wave and took share every quarter this year.”

2. Figma’s IPO and Valuation Surge

Overview:
The hosts examined Figma’s recent IPO, discussing its skyrocketing valuation and the sustainability of its market performance.

Key Points:

• IPO Performance:

  • Figma priced its IPO with a market cap aligned with Adobe’s earlier acquisition offer but surged to an astonishing $67.6 billion on day one.

• Valuation Concerns:

  • Ryan criticized the high price-to-sales ratio, noting:

    “It's the most insane valuation of all time.” ([14:35])

  • Brett echoed skepticism, emphasizing the disparity between Figma’s revenue and its market valuation.

• Future Outlook:

  • Both hosts expressed doubts about the sustainability of Figma’s valuation unless it can significantly ramp up revenue growth in the coming years.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([14:04]):

  “I just think that's how insane the IPO markets are.”

• Brett Schaefer ([15:12]):

  “I think it's a good risk-reward with this stock.”

3. Portillo’s Earnings and National Expansion Challenges

Overview:
Brett provided an in-depth analysis of Portillo’s recent earnings report, focusing on the company's revenue growth challenges amidst its national expansion efforts.

Key Points:

• Revenue Growth:

  • Portillo’s saw just under 1% comparable sales growth, falling short of the anticipated 3-5% inflation adjustments, primarily due to underperforming new locations in Texas.

• Expansion Strategy:

  • The company faced skepticism regarding its ability to scale nationally, especially after the Texas expansion didn’t meet expectations.

• Management Actions:

  • Despite challenges, management is implementing strategies like kiosk ordering, enhancing drive-through speeds, and launching a loyalty program to boost performance.

• Investment Thesis:

  • Brett remains cautiously optimistic, suggesting holding the stock with the expectation that achieving higher comparable sales growth could turn it into a ten-bagger investment.

Notable Quotes:

• Brett Schaefer ([07:24]):

  “If comp store sales get to that 1, 2, 3, 4% level, I think the stock is still a 10 bagger.”

• Ryan Henderson ([23:43]):

  “For my portfolio at a bit of a crossroads.”

4. Remitly’s Strong Performance Amidst Market Skepticism

Overview:
Ryan and Brett praised Remitly’s stellar earnings, highlighting its ability to outperform expectations despite prevailing market challenges.

Key Points:

• Earnings Success:

  • Remitly reported a 40% growth in send volume, approaching its fastest rate in three years, and surpassed Western Union in North America’s revenue.

• Market Dynamics:

  • Despite concerns about stablecoins potentially disrupting the remittance market, Remitly continues to thrive, offering more straightforward transactions compared to cryptocurrency-based methods.

• Innovative Products:

  • Launches like Remitly Flex, Remitly Wallet, and Send Now, Pay Later are positioning the company for diversified growth and enhanced customer retention.

• Valuation and Growth Potential:

  • With projected 15% revenue growth over the next five years and robust operating margins, Remitly is deemed one of the most undervalued growth stocks with clear paths to operational leverage.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([34:09]):

  “This is one of the cheapest growth stocks out there today that actually has a clear path to operating leverage.”

• Brett Schaefer ([35:01]):

  “They up the revenue guidance. It should have been much higher today.”

5. Airbnb’s Earnings and Strategic Initiatives

Overview:
The discussion shifted to Airbnb, where Ryan and Brett analyzed the company’s recent earnings, focusing on market growth rates and new service offerings.

Key Points:

• Revenue Growth:

  • Airbnb reported a 10% overall revenue increase, with North America growing at a slower single-digit rate compared to rapid growth in new markets like Brazil and Japan.

• New Offerings:

  • Introduction of Experiences and Services, such as private chefs and personalized tours, has garnered significant interest but is yet to substantially impact revenue.

• Buyback Strategy:

  • Airbnb has been actively repurchasing shares, signaling confidence from management about the stock’s undervaluation.

• Market Share Expansion:

  • Efforts to increase active listings and enhance the diversification of accommodation options aim to strengthen Airbnb’s network effect and competitive moat.

Notable Quotes:

• Brett Schaefer ([46:36]):

  “But they've said that for a few years now, so maybe the TAM in the United States is a little more limited than we think.”

• Ryan Henderson ([51:08]):

  “They are plowing money into marketing, they're plowing money into R and D for these initiatives because they're getting a lot more businesses that are sending money through Remitly.”

6. Coupang’s Expansion and Market Potential

Overview:
Ryan provided an analysis of Coupang’s recent earnings, emphasizing its aggressive expansion into Taiwan and the implications for future growth.

Key Points:

• Earnings Performance:

  • Coupang reported a 26% year-over-year growth in gross profit for its Korea E-commerce marketplace, with Taiwan revenues surging by 54% quarter-over-quarter.

• Expansion Strategy:

  • Significant investments in Taiwan aim to capture market share rapidly, mirroring Amazon’s early expansion efforts.

• Valuation and Future Outlook:

  • With an enterprise value of approximately $50 billion, Ryan believes Coupang is undervalued, projecting a path to $5 billion in earnings within a few years, assuming sustained growth.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([55:43]):

  “It’s like Amazon in basically 2000 through 2010 when they were just ramping CapEx related to fulfillment.”

• Brett Schaefer ([57:18]):

  “And they have the playbook.”

7. OpenAI’s $500 Billion Valuation Speculation

Overview:
The hosts touched upon recent speculations regarding OpenAI’s valuation, debating its plausibility and potential as an investment.

Key Points:

• Valuation Speculation:

  • Reports suggest OpenAI could be valued at around $500 billion, hinging on early-stage stock sales allowing employee cash-outs.

• Operational Challenges:

  • Ryan expressed skepticism about OpenAI achieving cash flow positivity by year-end, citing high capital expenditures on GPU infrastructure and competitive pressures.

• Investment Stance:

  • Both hosts advised caution, with Ryan emphasizing that private market shares are likely inaccessible to regular investors and Brett highlighting the speculative nature of such valuations.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([60:37]):

  “I don't think they're cash flow positive. They seem to have sort of an unlimited runway of liquidity.”

• Brett Schaefer ([61:56]):

  “Yeah, it's a fun company to track, but I would never own it.”

8. Market Insights and Investment Strategies

Overview:
Towards the end of the episode, Ryan and Brett shared broader market insights and personal investment strategies, reflecting on sector valuations and potential opportunities.

Key Points:

• Valuation Caution:

  • The hosts expressed a consensus that many high-growth sectors are currently overvalued, drawing parallels to historic market bubbles.

• Investment Focus:

  • Emphasis on holding quality stocks with realistic growth projections and undervalued metrics, such as Remitly and Coupang.

• Neglected Sectors:

  • Small-cap stocks were highlighted as areas with potential undervaluation, although not specific sectors.

Notable Quotes:

• Ryan Henderson ([62:54]):

  “But it feels like a lot of the companies I'm looking at are still just like quality is absurdly priced type of thing.”

• Brett Schaefer ([63:24]):

  “What am I looking at? Well, small caps, small caps doing well.”

Conclusion and Takeaways

Ryan and Brett provided a comprehensive analysis of several high-profile companies, examining their recent earnings, growth strategies, and market valuations. The episode underscored the importance of scrutinizing growth rates relative to competitors, understanding the sustainability of valuations, and identifying companies with clear paths to operational leverage. Remitly emerged as a standout performer, while Figma’s IPO raised concerns about market overvaluation. The discussion on cloud providers highlighted shifting market dynamics, hinting at potential challenges for AWS. Additionally, Coupang’s aggressive expansion and Airbnb’s strategic initiatives provided insights into emerging opportunities within the e-commerce and hospitality sectors.

Notable Quotes Highlighted:

• “We continue to lead the AI infrastructure wave and took share every quarter this year.” — Satya Nadella ([09:51])

• “It's the most insane valuation of all time.” — Ryan Henderson ([14:35])

• “If comp store sales get to that 1, 2, 3, 4% level, I think the stock is still a 10 bagger.” — Brett Schaefer ([07:24])

• “This is one of the cheapest growth stocks out there today that actually has a clear path to operating leverage.” — Ryan Henderson ([34:09])

• “It’s like Amazon in basically 2000 through 2010 when they were just ramping CapEx related to fulfillment.” — Ryan Henderson ([55:43])

Disclaimer:
The hosts, Ryan Henderson and Brett Schaefer, are not financial advisors. The discussions and opinions expressed in this summary are based on the podcast episode and do not constitute formal investment advice.