Chit Chat Stocks Episode Summary

Episode Title: SpaceX and OpenAI Prepare Monster IPOs; Netflix + Wise Earnings; A New Micro Cap Defense Play
Date: January 23, 2026
Hosts: Ryan Henderson (A) & Brett Schafer (B)

Overview

In this weekly Power Hour episode, Ryan and Brett discuss:

• Market and political developments (U.S. & Greenland, Danish stocks)
• Recent earnings from Wise, Intel, Interactive Brokers, and Netflix
• A deep dive into business models and strategic moves
• Notable new IPO rumors for SpaceX and OpenAI
• “Small Cap of the Week” segment on Castelum, a defense micro-cap

Throughout, the tone is casual, witty, and conversational, with plenty of direct insights and sharp takes on the latest market moves.

Key Segments and Insights

1. Political News: The (Not) U.S.–Greenland Mega Deal

[01:10–04:20]

• Rumors of a U.S. proposal to buy Greenland from Denmark were quickly dismissed as outdated or resolved.
• Discussion shifts to if a big cash influx to Denmark could benefit Danish consumer stocks (Carlsberg, Matas, DSV, etc.), but both hosts agree it’s unlikely to be investable.
• Quote [03:43]:
  "If Danish consumers have a little more money in their pocket, maybe they're going to be buying some beer." – Ryan

2. Wise Earnings and Uplisting Plans

[04:45–13:55]

• Wise stock jumps 18% following a strong Q3 trading update:
  • Personal customers +20%
  • Business customers +25%
  • Total payment volume: $64B (+25% YoY)
• Take rate remains at 0.5%; Wise is “proactively trying to lower the take rate.”
• Notable Quote [06:32]:
  "Our financial performance and performance in Q3 and throughout fiscal year 26 has been strong and we remain on track. To meet our guidance, we expect to complete our dual listing in the first half of 2026, which will further increase our profile in the US as we remain focused on accelerating global growth and becoming network for the world's money." – Kristo Käärmann (Wise CEO, read by Ryan)

Additional Highlights:

• NYSE/Nasdaq’s competitive advantage for global listings is growing, as companies grow disenchanted with European exchanges.
• Wise’s card business is surging (card revenue +41% YoY, now 25%+ of revenue).
• Wise simplifies cross-border spending, offering the lowest-cost method—hosts compare it favorably to stablecoins and note its proof-of-concept ([10:40]).
• Insider Insight: Wise’s tech and regulatory moat helps partners like Nubank offer global payments.

Wise vs. Remitly

[12:31–14:40]

• Wise targets global, more affluent, and SMB customers; Remitly focuses on immigrants, remittances, and faster, more flexible cash pickups.
• No direct competitive overlap but both continue to grow.

3. Intel: Slow Progress, Big Hopes

[14:40–25:07]

• Intel posted declining Q4 revenue (–4% YoY), yet shares doubled over the year due to long-term hopes around U.S. chip manufacturing and AI.
• New CEO Pat Gelsinger’s focus: U.S. manufacturing, advanced technology (18A process), heavy investment, and national security importance ([15:20]).
• Partnerships/rumors include: Nvidia, Amazon, possibly Apple.
• Notable exchange:
  "[24:11] Tyler says: Revenue down 4%, stock up 150%."
  "Yeah, you don't make money on the past, you make money on future earnings." – Brett [24:17]
• Discussion on industry cyclicality, foundry capacity, and U.S. incentives. Intel may benefit from government/industry support as an alternative to TSMC, but results are still years out.

4. Interactive Brokers (IBKR): “Best Business in the World?”

[25:07–33:45]

• Phenomenal quarter:
  • Revenue +18%
  • Operating margin: 79% (“blows my mind” – Ryan [27:43])
  • Customer accounts: +32% YoY to over 4.4M
• Thomas Peterffy (founder) quips about growth [28:55]:
  "As long as I shall live."
• IBKR considered scalable, highly profitable, with massive long-term TAM as global investing increases.
• Marketing/advertising ramp-up is in early stages; growth could continue.
• Risks: cyclical revenue, but competitive advantages remain intact even in bear markets.
• The hosts recommend waiting for market pullbacks to add.

5. Netflix (NFLX): Earnings, Maturity, and the Warner Bros. Deal

[33:45–43:05]

• Key numbers:
  • Revenue +16%
  • Operating margin: 30%
  • Viewing hours: +2% (flat engagement is a concern)
• Netflix is investing in live events, creators, cloud gaming, and scaling advertising.
• Warner Bros. Discovery partnership/acquisition could drive further pricing/ARPU growth.
• Notable Quote [34:13]:
  "They are in a worse spot than YouTube. Everyone's in a worse spot than YouTube. It's not, it's not like Netflix can't be, can't also be a winner here in my opinion." – Ryan
• Debate over Netflix’s growth ceiling; 27x EBIT valuation could be attractive if engagement accelerates.

6. Small Cap of the Week: Castelum (CTM) – Microcap Defense

[50:24–55:34]

• Castelum: $100M market cap, cybersecurity/electronic warfare.
• Transitioning from acquisition-fueled growth to organic contract wins (notably $100M+ Navy contract).
• Balance sheet cleaned up; operating margin at break-even.
• Key takeaway [55:09]:
  "I am a huge fan of the turning the corner to profitability stories. It feels like so often they're mispriced..." – Ryan
• Hosts discuss the challenge of finding real moats at this size, but highlight rerating potential as companies scale to profitability.

7. Software & Compensation: Atlassian, Wix, and More

[56:24–61:06]

• Atlassian’s sky-high stock-based comp (26% of revenue, highest in large-cap software) raises questions about normalization as stock prices stay depressed.
• Discussion of Wix and Base 44 as more potentially attractive software plays.

8. Bubble Watch & Mega IPOs Loom: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic

[64:26–69:11]

• SpaceX prepping for a potential $30B+ IPO at $800B+ valuation—a “ring-the-bell” market top moment?
• OpenAI and Anthropic rumored to follow with mega-IPOs.
• Sam Altman’s capital-raising trip in Middle East compared to WeWork’s Adam Neumann era, raising skepticism about the scale and timing.
• Notable Quote [68:14]:
  "That feels like a top moment to me." – Brett
• Hosts agree all will likely hit public markets burning lots of cash at massive valuations, risking post-IPO “unwinds” for retail investors.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq—God, it's beautiful, ain't it?" – Brett [06:59], applauding the appeal for global tech listings.
• "Only true patriots own Intel, right? Right or wrong, you can't own Taiwan Semiconductor. You have to own Intel." – Brett [14:40], tongue-in-cheek on the geopolitics of semis.
• "It's so profitable. And so again, I posed the question, is this the best business around today, or are we at a cyclical peak?" – Ryan [29:39] on IBKR.
• "They have under 5 million accounts. ... There are hundreds of millions, if not eventually 500 million potential brokerage accounts to tackle." – Brett [29:17]

Timestamps for Key Topics

| Segment | Start | |-----------------------------------------------|------------| | Danish stocks/Greenland story | 01:10 | | Wise earnings & dual-listing | 04:45 | | Wise vs. Remitly | 12:31 | | Intel: AI, chips, and American manufacturing | 14:40 | | Interactive Brokers: earnings and outlook | 25:07 | | Netflix earnings, advertising, WBD deal | 33:45 | | Small Cap of the Week: Castelum (CTM) | 50:24 | | Software: Atlassian, Wix | 56:24 | | SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPO discussion | 64:26 |

Episode Tone & Style

Throughout, Ryan and Brett maintain a lively, investor-oriented, and slightly irreverent tone. They challenge market narratives and regularly inject humor and skepticism into their analysis, appealing to both active investors and those following mega-trends.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode…

This episode is your all-in-one digest for:

• Early-2026 market movers and rumors (SpaceX, OpenAI, Netflix, Wise)
• Nuanced stock analysis from globally-minded, fundamentally-driven investors
• Hot takes on emerging tech, advertising models, and microcap opportunities
• Cautionary context about high-flying IPOs and sector bubbles

If you’re tracking the intersection of tech, defense, and markets—or looking for sharp, actionable stock commentary, this “Power Hour” is a must-catch.

End of Summary