Chit Chat Stocks #204: SpaceX's Imminent IPO; Meta Lawsuit Implications; Opportunity In Luxury Stocks?
March 27, 2026 | Hosts: Ryan Henderson & Brett Schafer
Episode Overview
In this week’s Investing Power Hour, Ryan and Brett deliver a lively, in-depth rundown covering some of the hottest news and trends in financial markets. Headline topics include drawdowns and opportunities in luxury stocks, the private market frenzy around SpaceX’s anticipated IPO, OpenAI’s controversial financing moves, and regulatory headwinds for Meta due to mounting lawsuits. The hosts also analyze a slew of international and small-cap stories, including Grab’s latest acquisition, the impact of AI model efficiency advances, DoorDash’s prospects, and the intriguing “crypto-backed mortgage” phenomenon.
Key Segments & Takeaways
1. Anecdotal Market Insights from Latin America
[01:08-03:06]
- Brett reports live from southern Brazil, confirming heavy usage of Mercado Libre and Nubank.
- Notes the difference in fintech competition: “Argentina does not have Nubank. And that's one of the reasons why Mercado Pago is much more profitable there.” [01:50]
2. Luxury Stocks: Drawdowns & Debate
[03:06-12:30]
- The hosts highlight significant drawdowns in major luxury names: EssilorLuxottica -39%, Hermès -41%, Ferrari -43%, LVMH -49%.
- Industry-wide revenue has declined for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis, outside of the pandemic.
- “It’s the first time since the GFC that industry revenue has declined for luxury.” (Ryan) [04:20]
- Discussion on bullwhip effects (post-pandemic surge followed by normalization) and China’s property crisis as a demand headwind.
- Multiples discussed: Hermès/Ferrari (24x EV/EBIT), LVMH (14x), Kering/E. Luxottica (29x).
- Brett’s ranking for business quality: “Hermes 1, Ferrari 2, LVMH 3, Kering 4.” [07:28]
- Ferrari’s challenge: balancing exclusivity and growth, e.g., “If you’re Ferrari … you grow deliveries 1-2% a year with 6-7% price increases every year. That seems more sustainable.” (Ryan) [09:29]
- Reference to an in-depth luxury episode with Sleep Well Capital and Leandro from Best Anchor Stocks [10:23].
Notable Quote:
- “There was this sense that even if we hit a recession … the wealthiest are going to continue to buy. I think we've maybe seen a dent in that thesis.” (Ryan) [11:29]
3. Bubble Watch: Fundrise, SpaceX, and Private Markets
[12:30-21:38]
- Fundrise Innovation Fund: Went public, surged 750%+ in days, and reportedly traded at 15x NAV. Brett calls it “animal spirits.”
- “It is just a holding fund ... you already have a 2% management fee on top of that. So Fundrise, hey, great launch. Good business if you can get it. But it shows the animal spirits are still there.” [13:55]
- SpaceX Anticipated IPO: Reports of a $1.75T valuation seeking to raise $75B, possibly marking the largest IPO ever.
- SPVs (special-purpose vehicles) complicate actual ownership for private investors.
- “My gut says they’re going to raise that much and then some. ... [People] just want the name. And ... just believe in Elon Musk.” (Ryan) [18:45], [19:03]
- Discussion on Musk as “phenomenal at timing capital markets,” possible mega-merger of his ventures under “X.”
- Speculation on Musk’s narrative:
- “The story is going to be: we're going to merge, we need a ton of money, we have this story to sell—AI data centers in space.” (Brett) [22:00]
Memorable Moment:
- “Entrepreneur Tish Paul Bhatia is confident he owns a slice of Elon Musk's SpaceX, but he can't be a hundred percent sure.” (Brett, reading press) [15:54]
4. OpenAI: Return Guarantees & Financial Drama
[23:44-29:40]
- Listener questions on OpenAI’s margins, fundraising, and leadership risk.
- Reuters reports OpenAI offering private equity 17.5% guaranteed returns on preferred equity.
- Brett calls this “AI WeWork”:
- “OpenAI is trying to raise money at worse terms than the investment banks had to in one of the greatest liquidity crisis in banking history.” [25:21]
- Ryan observes:
- “Everything feels so concerning with them. Why can’t they just slow down?” [26:26]
- Discussion of VC herd mentality and OpenAI’s “association value” for investors.
5. International Expansion: Grab Acquires Foodpanda
[31:41-36:38]
- Grab buys Foodpanda (Taiwan) for $600M, entering its 9th market.
- Uber reportedly tried to buy Foodpanda for $950M two years ago.
- Brett and Ryan discuss Grab’s “winner take most” approach, positive acquisition track record, and upcoming competition with Coupang and Sea Ltd. in Taiwan and Southeast Asia.
- Brett: “With a lot of these markets, I believe they'll either be under one umbrella or two ... It's almost like a basket approach” [36:28]
Quote:
- “If you're paying basically 30-40% less of a price tag two years later, I would guess there've been maybe been some growth headwinds.” (Ryan) [32:28]
6. DoorDash: Drawdown & Competitive Debate
[37:57-43:37]
- DoorDash down 45% from highs, possibly due to AV/AI fears and spikes in driver costs (from oil prices).
- Transition from -$580M to +$723M in operating profits over two years, now at 5% operating margin.
- Ryan: “[Autonomous vehicles] could kind of supercharge DoorDash's business because it takes out the biggest cost, which is drivers.” [39:53]
- Discuss if 20% mature operating margins possible.
- DoorDash now on Ryan’s watchlist, as is a broader “fast delivery” basket.
7. Tech News: Google 'TurboQuant' & AI Model Efficiency
[43:53-47:55]
- Explains Google’s TurboQuant (compression algorithm) leading to 6x memory efficiency in model inference—potentially negative for DRAM/memory stocks.
- Brett ponders: “If AI models get more and more efficient, that's where [Google] wins.” [46:35]
- Both agree: Long-term incentive to reduce hardware requirements will affect chip suppliers’ growth assumptions.
8. Crypto-Backed Mortgages Enter Mainstream
[48:19-51:20]
- Fannie Mae to accept “crypto-backed mortgages” (Bitcoin only) for down payments.
- Brett: “I guess if it's allowed to happen, doesn't mean it will happen.” [50:41]
- Hosts express skepticism about volatility and risk-pricing.
9. Small Cap of the Week: Loar Holdings (LOAR)
[51:26-56:30]
- Aerospace/defense components roll-up, 27.5% revenue growth since 2022, 21% operating margin, 4x net debt to EBITDA, EV/EBIT 58x.
- Comparisons to TransDigm and Heico; hosts debate multiples and roll-up model appeal.
- “It’s a big bet on management. ... This industry is great, but management quality, valuation—you’ve gotta care about those as well.” (Brett) [55:37]
10. Meta Lawsuit Implications: Children, Liability, & Stock Impact
[56:30-63:24]
- Meta introduces performance-based comp plan; not enough to sway Ryan.
- Major lawsuits allege social platforms deliberately addicting children:
- “This could be very, very detrimental ... massive liabilities. I feel like the stock reaction is warranted.” (Brett) [61:07]
- Possible analogies to tobacco or asbestos liability waves, “master settlement agreement” scenario possible.
- Ryan: “At some point, you have a civic duty not to destroy society ... at least invest heavily in protections.” [61:07]
11. Rapid-Fire Watchlists & Portfolio Ideas [64:47-65:44]
- Brett’s current watchlist: Autodesk, Nu Holdings, Pacifico Airports.
- Ryan’s current priorities: Interactive Brokers, Airbnb, DoorDash.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “If you’re Ferrari … grow deliveries 1-2% a year with 6-7% price increases every year. That seems more sustainable.” – Ryan [09:29]
- “OpenAI is trying to raise money at worse terms than the investment banks had to in ... [the] greatest liquidity crisis in banking history. Is it AI WeWork, Ryan? Come on, tell me I'm crazy.” – Brett [25:21]
- “My gut says [SpaceX is] going to raise that much money and then some ... just believe in Elon Musk.” – Ryan [18:45]
- On Meta lawsuits: “This could be very, very detrimental ... I feel like the stock reaction is warranted.” – Brett [61:07]
Timestamps for Major Topics
- [01:08] Market insights from Brazil
- [03:06] Luxury stocks drawdown & industry outlook
- [12:30] Fundrise bubble and private tech market dynamics
- [15:54] SpaceX IPO speculation & “cult of Musk”
- [23:44] OpenAI’s controversial venture financing
- [31:41] Grab/Foodpanda acquisition & Southeast Asia competition
- [37:57] DoorDash outlook and generational divide
- [43:53] Google TurboQuant AI tech impact
- [48:19] Crypto-backed mortgages analysis
- [51:26] Loar Holdings small-cap overview
- [56:30] Meta compensation and lawsuit impacts
Final Takeaways
This episode of Chit Chat Stocks crackles with critical skepticism of market euphoria, from “bubble watch” on private tech to Musk’s masterful fundraising and the rising risks for Big Tech facing social harm lawsuits. Throughout, Ryan and Brett maintain their signature banter, deep analytic dives, and an openness to listener questions—making it a can’t-miss for investors scouting narrative shifts, hidden risks, and global stock ideas.