Chit Chat Stocks podcast – Episode Summary

Episode: Tesla Earnings Reaction, Betting On $HIMS, Google's AI Dominance, And An Asymmetric Opportunity In MGM With Travis Hoium
Date: October 24, 2025
Host: Brett Schafer
Guest: Travis Hoium (Asymmetric Investing)

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the art of asymmetric investing, Tesla and broader EV sector dynamics, the disruptive potential of Hims & Hers, Google's dominant AI positioning, bubble risks in “thematic” growth stocks, and a deep-dive into the MGM turnaround thesis. Guest Travis Hoium shares his strategy for finding multi-bagger investments and evaluates several current stock opportunities, focusing on risk-reward profiles and business model durability.

Asymmetric Investing: Principles & Comparison to Motley Fool ([00:00]-[04:00])

Key Points:

• Definition & Approach:
  Travis explains he runs Asymmetric Investing as a newsletter and YouTube channel, serving as his transparent “investing diary” (01:02). His focus: “finding 10x stocks over the next 10 years.” He prioritizes proven long-term strategies like the “smiling curve” and demand aggregation.
• Difference From Motley Fool:
  While inspired by David Gardner’s Rule Breaker approach, Travis is more precise and strategic, learning from patterns in winners like Amazon and Netflix rather than casting a wide net.

  “I’m not particularly interested in finding the rocket stocks... I'm more interested in what is the world going to look like 5, 10, 20 years from now and riding those tailwinds, because that is a much more proven thesis.” (01:33, Travis)

• Performance Claim:
  Travis states his portfolio has outperformed the market by 12% last year and approximately 3x YTD (2025).
• Philosophy Quote:

  “A stock can only go down 100%, but it can go up 10x, 100x over the long term. And that’s where almost all of your gains are going to be.” (04:00, Brett)

Tesla Earnings Breakdown & The Reality of the EV Market ([04:00]-[14:00])

Tesla’s Earnings Context ([04:00]-[05:36]):

• Auto revenue up 6%
• Gross profit flat; declining gross margins
• Quarterly operating income down 40%
• Market share continues to dip in Europe/China, slightly recovers in the US (largely due to expiring EV tax credits)
• Operating income at its lowest in 4 years; valuation (EV/EBIT) at 300x

Why Tesla Doesn’t Qualify as “Asymmetric” ([05:36]-[10:12]):

• Not Priced for Asymmetry:
  Tesla is already “priced for perfection.” Travis: stock valuation assumes outsized future profits not supported by present trajectory.
• Demand & Margins Softening:
  Tesla’s declining prices, stagnant volumes suggest waning demand, even amid aggressive EV credits.
• FSD Skepticism:
  Travis doubts Tesla’s Full Self-Driving progress:

  “I’ve been critical of FSD for a very, very long time because I don’t think fundamentally it’s going to be able to do the things that Musk thinks it’s going to do.”

Broader EV & Autonomous Vehicle Landscape ([10:12]-[12:45]):

• The field is now “hyper competitive” (Waymo, Mobileye, May Mobility, etc.).
• Uber and Lyft, which own demand and can integrate any supplier’s autonomous vehicles, are Travis’s preferred “asymmetric” plays in this theme—both are still affordable on forward earnings multiples.

Quote ([11:48]):

"Asymmetric investing is really more value investing than you might think... It's buying into trends before people figure out that’s what they are." (Travis)

General Motors & Rivian: Contrasting Execution ([12:45]-[17:56])

General Motors ([13:00]-[13:59]):

• Managed tariffs better than expected, revenue up more than Tesla
• $2B in services revenue (Super Cruise, etc.), $5B in deferred revenue from preloaded features
• Trading at just 6x earnings: “Limited risk, upside potential if you get growth and margin expansion.”

Rivian ([15:15]-[17:56]):

• Launching an e-bike via skunkworks; cash burn and debt remain critical issues
• Lacks a clear path to profitability. “They are chasing around these strange shiny objects that don’t help their fundamentals.”
• Travis is short Rivian for this reason.

EV Credits Note ([18:00]-[18:34]):
Removing US tax credits will be a significant headwind for pure-play EV makers’ volume and profits.

Robotics Bubble Watch & Investing Psychology ([13:59]-[15:01])

• Robotics companies may present “back up the truck” moments after a bubble pops.
• Both hosts caution against FOMO and recommend pandemic-appropriate patience and maintaining a robust watchlist.
• Example: Subsea Robotics was overvalued—now up 100%, but Travis continues to favor price discipline.

Hims & Hers: From Niche DTC to Healthtech Platform ([20:09]-[31:38])

Overview:

• Travis is bullish, with Hims as a major portfolio holding.
• Originally a DTC for “embarrassing” categories (ED, hair loss), now expanding to broader telemedicine: “They are fundamentally trying to do things differently.”
• Recent add-ons: testosterone therapy, menopause treatments; possible longevity services in future.

Soft Moat and User Experience ([25:18]):

• The “easy process that addresses pain points” is an underrated moat. “Can't this be easier?... There are very few companies truly doing things differently. That's where Hims excels.” (Travis)
• Focus on cash direct payment model—not dealing with insurance headaches.

Growth & Margins ([27:23]-[30:25]):

• Paid subscribers up from 300k (2020) to 2.4M (2024); 60% CAGR.
• Gross margin at 80%; operating margins expected to increase 1–3% per year.
• “If I’m wrong, I lose everything I put into it. If I’m right, what is this company worth? A trillion dollars? That’s 100x.” (24:59, Travis)

Risks:

• Regulatory lawsuits (especially over compounding and GLP-1s) are a risk, but Travis argues that disruptive companies (“Uber, Airbnb”) always face pushback.
• Customer acquisition treadmill an area to watch, but retention and specialty expansion can offset this.

Google/Alphabet: Unmatched Position in AI ([31:38]-[47:54])

• Google “invented a lot of the things we’re seeing now in AI” (39:18)
• Owns DeepMind, has a vast trove of data (YouTube etc.), years ahead in technical infrastructure (“The new AWS of AI”).
• “When I say bludgeon the competition with cash, they’re going to be able to build out these data centers faster, bigger, with better chips, with more money than anybody else.” (41:00)
• AI competitors like OpenAI have:
  • no business model (“OpenAI doesn’t have a business model.” (40:28))
  • escalating compute costs (“have to keep these valuations going up” (45:25))
  • are reliant on external partners (Microsoft, Oracle, etc.)
• Google already profitable in Search, Cloud (now 20% operating margins), Play Store, YouTube: “They can make all this stuff free or cheap…and still dominate.”

Quote ([43:20]):

“I downloaded ChatGPT’s new browser and signed in with my Google account. Who’s really running the show here?”

• Travis prefers Alphabet as the “cheapest and best-positioned stock” in the AI arms race, over high-multiple Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI-adjacent plays.

Recent Asymmetric Buys: Apparel & Wearables ([32:12]-[36:54])

• On Running (ONON):
  • “Three-year CAGR is 43%.”
  • Forward PE of 30, strong pricing power ("We're just going to raise prices.")
• Crocs (Brett’s pick):
  • 6x EV/EBITDA, but fashion/fad risks make it a smaller position
  • On turnaround of subsidiary HeyDude: “HeyDude has continued to decline quarter after quarter.”
• Apparel brands can be “asymmetric” at deep value prices, but require careful assessment of moat and turnaround evidence.

Bubble Watch: Quantum Computing ‘Hype Cycle’ ([47:54]-[54:39])

• Quantum ‘darlings’ like IonQ, Rigetti trade at massive valuations with unproven business models.
• Warning on Thematic Bubbles:
  • “The best technology doesn’t win. The best business model wins.” (49:57, Travis)
  • Wait for the “hype cycle” to implode before bottom-fishing: “You could have sat out all of the 1990s, just waited for the 2001 crash and bought the survivors.”
• Most current “thematic” growth stocks are “not real companies today as far as business goes...they’re speculative.”

MGM: Under-the-Radar Value with Asymmetric Optionality ([56:44]-[65:05])

Key Points:

• Sum-of-the-Parts Overlooked:
  • MGM’s China stake and 50% share of BetMGM (now producing $100M+ dividends) add significant value “not priced in.”
  • “The core business was trading at four to five times EBITDA—cheap for a steady casino.”
  • Aggressively buying back shares (“15% of shares a year”).
• Japan Mega-Casino Optionality:
  • Opening 2030; potential to rival or exceed Marina Bay Sands, “the most profitable building in the world.”
• Las Vegas ‘death’ exaggerated:
  • Vegas remains resilient, more entertainment-focused; periodic negativity is overblown (“I’ve been hearing Vegas is dead for 20 years.” (61:23))
• Online Gaming Threats:
  • MGM is less exposed to the “customer treadmill” of DraftKings/FanDuel and benefits from physical assets and global online gaming growth.
  • “I get [the digital] for free. Great. If there’s some upside there, that’s the way that I look at it.”

Notable Quotes & Soundbites

• “Stock can only go down 100%, but it can go up 10x, 100x.” (04:00, Brett)
• On Tesla FSD:
  “Until [Musk] proves me wrong, that’s going to be my opinion.” (06:53, Travis)
• On Hims:
  “This is how disruption works. It is uncomfortable. It is pushing the envelope. It is making pharmaceutical companies mad, doctors mad.” (22:30, Travis)
• On Google’s AI power:
  “They’re going to be able to build out these data centers faster, bigger, with better chips, with more money than anybody else and they don’t have to generate a return so they can undercut on prices.” (41:00, Travis)
• On Bubble Investing:
  “What’s the business model? The best technology doesn’t win, the best business model wins.” (49:57, Travis)
• On MGM:
  “You may be going from a 4–5x EBITDA multiple to 10–15x... That’s how you get those 10x returns.” (60:09, Travis)

Useful Timestamps

• Intro & Asymmetric Investing: 00:00–04:00
• Tesla/Electric Vehicles: 04:00–18:34
• Robotics & Bubble Watch: 13:59, 14:32
• Rivian Segment: 15:15–18:00
• Hims & Hers Deep Dive: 20:09–31:38
• Google/Alphabet & AI: 39:18–47:54
• Recent Asymmetric Buys: 32:12–36:54
• Bubble Watch (Quantum): 47:54–54:39
• MGM Opportunity: 56:44–65:05

Conclusion

This episode of Chit Chat Stocks explored how asymmetric investing can spot big winners early through strategic patience, skepticism toward hype cycles, and a rigorous focus on business models and valuation. The discussion highlighted several opportunities (and pitfalls) across industries, from healthcare tech and casinos to mega-cap AI and apparel, providing listeners with a practical approach to long-term, outsized returns.