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The State of AI Software; Tesla Robotaxi Launch: Hims & Hers vs. Novo Nordisk (TSLA, HIMS)
01:04:12
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- [00:00]
Ryan Henderson
Foreign.
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Brett Shafer
Welcome to Chitchat Stocks. On this show, host Ryan Henderson and Brett Shafer analyze businesses and riff on the world of investing. As a quick reminder, Chitchat Stocks is a CCM Media Group podcast. Anything discussed on Chitchat Stocks by Ryan.
- [00:20]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Brett or any other podcast guest is.
- [00:22]
Brett Shafer
Not formal advice or recommendation. Now please enjoy this episode.
- [00:33]
Ryan Henderson
Welcome to Chit Chat Stocks. Today we are joined by co founder and CEO of Fiscal AI, formerly Fin Chat. If you are a regular listener to these shows, you know that they have been a sponsor for a long time. Also my employer and just an all around fantastic platform to use for financial research. We are also joined by the one and only Bradley Rhett Schaefer. But Braden, it's been a while since you've been on the show. Welcome back.
- [01:03]
Brett Shafer
It's good to be back boys. I appreciate it. This. This is live, right? We're live.
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Ryan Henderson
This is live.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
This is true. Yeah, live recording. We only got a few people that join us live. A lot, a lot more people listening to the actual recording. But yeah, we should get a few comments in here. And very happy for you to join us. I know you have plenty of experience in the podcast game as well. So excited to have a fun chat.
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Brett Shafer
You don't need a huge audience. It's better to be well known or sorry, it's better to be known well than well known. I strongly believe that.
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Ryan Henderson
I like that and we will. We're going to dig into some get a little expertise on the AI industry from Braden. But before we do, we want to talk about our friends at IBKR Interactive Brokers. We were so genuinely excited when Interactive Brokers reached out to us because we were already using the platform and Brett and I loved it. The reason Brett and I chose IBKR as our trading platform is because unlike other brokerage platforms, IBKR does not cut corners. Here are the four things that made IBKR the perfect fit for us. One, they have zero commissions on US listed stocks and ETFs through their IBKR Lite plan. Two they make investing in international listings extremely cheap and easy. 3 they provide up to 3.83% interest on cash held in my account so I no longer have to send money to and from accounts to get a high yield on my extra cash. And four, they have a fantastic portfolio performance analytics. Way better than most of the other platforms. When placing your money with a broker, go with a broker you can trust. Head on over to ibkr.com restrictions apply. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. All right, Braden, I want to Start with you. You have been running I guess fiscal AI now for well, fiscal AI for like two weeks, but the, the bones of fiscal AI for what, four years now?
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Brett Shafer
Yeah, we kind of started taking it seriously in 2022. Technically the company was incorporated in 2021 but I was still working my job in that year. So it's a loose founding date, I like to say 2022 and the, I.
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Ryan Henderson
Guess AI integrations and all of the stuff that fiscal AI is powering with AI kind of started I think basically around what, 2023?
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Brett Shafer
Yeah, that's right, the April 2023.
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Ryan Henderson
Okay, so give us your purview, the world of AI, some of the disruptive technologies. What are you seeing? Is there anything that has kind of blown you away? Any, any trends, mega trends that you are witnessing from AI generally?
- [04:00]
Brett Shafer
Yeah, I'll tell you as a consumer and then I'll tell you what I think about as an investor too and maybe helpful for the investors is my like unofficial timeline is that like wow moments in 2023. But then you're kind of like ah, this is not really in my workflow. It's like this is pretty cool for one off things impressive tech, not in my workflow. And then you had this, this next phase of chat with everything, chat with anything type of 2024 vibe, which was again not super in everyone's workflow all the time but, but very cool for information workers for example. And then the agentic world came along with like a, a 6 out of 10 usefulness rating with the potential to be a 10 out of 10. Right. It's, it's basically like what if everything has a lot of intelligence and instead of one agent working on something, for me, I have thousands of junior level employees in the sky in a data center that work 24, 7 unemotionally and unapologetically. And so, and so that, that promise became really interesting. And now 2025 here in recording late late June, it feels like 1995. And the reason I draw that comparison is 95. It was the year I was born. But that was when computing in the home and touching everyone on a daily basis started to really, really take off. It wasn't this like archaic nerdy thing you had like Windows 95 came out and it was like oh my God, this is now in everyone's home and in every single knowledge workers workflow constantly. That's what's happening right now with AI where everyone is using it now. Like everyone is officially using it. And it feels a little bit like if you're not using it. It's like, you know, in a few years it's like, what are you doing? Slash? Like you're just showing up to work without the tools you need, like showing up to your work without your laptop. So I think here feels a little bit more like now we need to have discussions around what, what disruption is gonna happen. And the AI crosshairs are going after a couple like companies like Adobe's an easy target. I think those companies are trading at cheap multiples and they're gonna start trading at cheaper multiples. So I want people to be a little bit more, little bit careful with these names. That's like kind of my, my suggestion, honestly.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, I can attest to using way more AI in my daily life. I was a bit skeptic for the general chat bots back in 2023. I mean they weren't as good yet. But I've ended up being a subscriber to Gemini. And hey, like everyone has their different use cases and I've used it on a regular basis now and find tons of value. And of course using fiscal AI on my daily workflow for investing. I mean, I like, for example, like the new product you guys came out with, with the AI generated research report, is it going to, you know, do all my research for me? No, but it's a great start on a new stock and I found it as a great, I don't know, it's, it's very, very helpful. Now the question I have, there's so many different takes out there, so many different paths that all these smart people are imagining. And it seems like there's a lot of disagreement, awareness. The whole space is going, what is one of these big ideas that people are claiming that you think has tons of potential? And then what is one where you think there's, you know, you have great insight into the insides of an AI company? Where's one where you think there's going to be bottlenecks here and it might not actually have viability.
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Brett Shafer
If there is repeat. Extreme repeatability in a process requires a mass amount of human capital for the job to be done. These types of companies are going to probably fundamentally change the most, both in knowledge workers and in the, in the real physical world. Anything that's really repetitive and can be automated will go first. High skilled, high nuance, high edge cases, those are the things most insulated. But most of our world is not super nuanced and edge cases in these type of repeatable processes that people do a lot, especially with knowledge work, especially with automation in, in a manufacturing plant or in a logistics center. I mean, wasn't Jassy talking in their AGM like 3 days ago that basically their entire warehouse is going to be entirely AI in like five years? Something like that?
- [09:14]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, they want to. Yeah, their, their number of workers is going to come down and they're going to have a ton of robotics. I think they've talked about their new warehouse that they've been monitoring or prototyping in. I think it's Louisiana that has way less workers, is way safer. It has a bunch of new robotic stuff. And then I guess the big picture one is if you can get them to have some smarter AI, you know, uploaded to these robots, that can make them even more helpful. But that might be a little bit too big. Big of a brain take for me. I don't. I don't know.
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Brett Shafer
No, I think you're right. I mean, like, what if everything has pretty general intelligence? That's an amazing breakthrough. And, and Brett, I feel like I'm, I'm like you where I'm. Because I listened to your guys, but I'm like you. That has a natural skepticism in me. I've seen it in you. I have it. Henderson, you have it as well. I think that every value investor does. It's like how we're, how we're wired. And this year I kind of took the turn on this where I'm like, okay, I'm not just building a business where I think it's going to change. I'm like, oh, I get it. Like, all these people who go on these panels and talk about how AI is going to change everything and bore me to sleep, like, it's so lame. It's like, oh, okay, I get it now. Like, everything is going to change. Like, you know what I mean? As soon as you're really starting to adopt it, you see the Luddites of the world, like, using it constantly in their day to day. It's like, okay, actually this is probably going to change the physical and the knowledge worker world pretty quickly here. I think the big change here is that you have these products go from like 0 to 100 million in revenue so fast. And the reason for that is there's no training. They don't even have any documentation on how to use it. You already know how to use it. Like, think of like the next Autodesk or something. Yeah, I think things you take so long to learn, but now you don't even have to learn it. It's crazy.
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Ryan Henderson
Yeah, it's. I would say for I've probably been one of the slowest adopters I know to using AI on a daily basis and for the longest time I thought like every people probably do the same thing. They hear AI and they just think of LLMs. Like they just think of like talking to chat GPT and they're like well it's not really that useful like maybe I'll swap out some of my Google searches for it. But it's all like you said the manual processes like if you are a lawyer or a paralegal or something and you're reading documents and all you need to do is extract three things from that document, get the person's name, details, info, where hospital they went to, whatever having an AI do that and just speeding up that workflow for you. There's a million use cases like that where it's going to save people time and ultimately money as well.
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Brett Shafer
Yeah and screw that work. Honestly screw that work. It's going to be disruptive to people's lives and jobs. We which I am sensitive to but, but screw that work man. Paperwork isn't work. I, I, I, I, I strongly believe that like it's not fulfilling. Yeah let the robots do that crap. That's, that's not like that's, I don't, I don't think we were put on this earth to do that, that kind of stuff so, so let the robots do it. But it's going to change bringing it back to investing.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
I think the reason at the start people such maybe hesitant to go not all in on saying oh I'm just going to be an AI guy, blah blah blah, all AI portfolio but more of just skepticism on whether the product's going to work is the few years before that we saw these same people or some of the same people hype up the metaverse, hype up crypto and I know some people out there are still fans of those two things but you saw a huge boom and crash and almost an entirely narrative driven thing but over the last two or three years we've seen actual progress within AI and I think you gotta you know admit when that's happening.
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Brett Shafer
Yeah, you're totally right. Like your guard's up automatically.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Exactly. Yeah.
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Ryan Henderson
What are some of the quote unquote wide moat businesses? You already mentioned Adobe, which I think for a long time was considered kind of high switching costs wide moat and maybe still is by some. What are some of those stereotypical wide belt businesses that you think are at risk of maybe not entire disruption by AI but at the edges Losing some demand from AI.
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Brett Shafer
Yeah, I think I'm almost now in the next stage of thinking. All of those things seem to be consensus now in terms of what's going to be changed. But what about the second order effects of, of intelligence in every device? How is car insurance gonna work? How's that business gonna work in 10 years when smaller but more profitable?
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Maybe, maybe.
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Brett Shafer
Right. Like it's really hard to underwrite this stuff right now and I don't think the market's at those second order businesses quite yet. It's really going, it's really thinking high level at like the Uber Waymo dynamic. It's thinking about the, and Tesla Robotax. Think about those, those items. It's thinking about Nvidia asml. TSMC is probably like the picks and shovels play of like everyone else fight it out but this is the infrastructure. Those things seems to be pretty consensus but yeah, like what, what's after that in terms of all of the businesses around them? I mean I'd be interesting if here, if you, you guys have any ideas like what does GEICO look like in 10 years? I don't know.
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Ryan Henderson
Yeah, maybe boost the telematics part or maybe there's big advances there.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Well there's fewer, if there's fewer to 95 to 99% less crashes that is going to make them more profitable for a while but then I think there's going to be a huge reduction in premiums. So that could actually end up being a bad thing for them. Yeah, I don't know.
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Ryan Henderson
It's almost for consumers.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah. And it could be a benefit for the companies if they are just that much more profitable. You still need to have you know, the government mandated car insurance. I think of almost the same thing with health insurance. If Ozempic is and all the, not just Ozempic, all the weight loss style drugs are actually as huge as people think. Well maybe health insurance is going to get cheaper. Who knows, maybe the insurance companies will pay for that and then hospital bills and stuff will come down. Yeah, that's kind of what I think. There could be tons of second order disruptions and when I'm investing I'm trying to figure out what's honestly not going to get disrupted. So I tend to be very nervous about software right now, especially ones that I don't know that well.
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Brett Shafer
I guess don't you guys have this kind of eeriness that you didn't have two, three years ago about like your confidence in the future just being a little bit harder to underwrite? Right. Now that's personally how I have have felt on just finding new names and having a lot of conviction in anything right now. It's actually been a real struggle for me in my own personal portfolio especially this year. It feels really, really difficult to have a lot of conviction in what, what things are going to look like.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah. And I tended to move from digital to physical world a little more. I think software, I just get same thing. I get nervous about software. But Brian, what about you?
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Ryan Henderson
No, yeah, I mean it's true. It also coincided with a lot of just multiples expanding across the board sort of throughout this year, which has kind of made it difficult for other reasons. I was kind of going through some of the same thought process of like not second order effects, but who are the picks and shovels provider? Who are some of like the hidden beneficiaries of like just sheer increase in AI spend? And honestly all of them have pretty much caught like a massive bit. Like you go to the people selling the widgets to data centers or who's that company with Amphenol? Basically that's majority of their business. They, they've rich multiple commercial air conditioning companies caught huge multiples. It's really hard honestly to find anyone that's just like a cheap picks and shovels provider to the industry.
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Brett Shafer
One of our early investors, just like 20 minutes ago he was out, he was texting me about Quanta Services, the $55 billion electrical engineering firm. Basically they're like just this big huge firm and that thing went from like 12 times EBIT to 40 in the last three years and the back but the backlog tripled. So like yeah, the entire infrastructure on the electricity grid is going to change. So even. You're right, even that stuff has caught a crazy bid.
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Ryan Henderson
And it's, it's not surprising because you see like the fundamentals are changing for those businesses and.
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Brett Shafer
Oh yeah, yeah, the business has gotten much better. It has, yeah.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Okay, we have, we have other topics we want to get to, but we have a fantastic question from the audience that I think you, Braden and Ryan too working at fiscal AI, have a great overview and insight into what you know, might be an answer here. Tyler asked, what do you guys think are going to be the biggest changes to the equity research roles given AI's new use cases?
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Ryan Henderson
You want to go first, Braden?
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
I don't know, whoever, whoever.
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Brett Shafer
I, I can take that. I mean right now we're building a lot of things that allow an analyst to do it goes back to the like save the paperwork for the robots A little bit. Data aggregation should not, should be done properly now that there's reasoning on the AI where it's not just going to extract the data and dump it to you, it's actually going to give you it in the right structure for each type of industry standardized as well as like the as reported stuff done correctly and accurately. So aggregation that you can actually trust because traditional ML techniques before couldn't really solve that problem. That's why A company like FactSet has 9,000 employees that manually collect data. We're going to eat their lunch with, with what we're doing for for example. So aggregation client communications are obviously change. I mean every analyst is already using that. Ramping up on new names qualitatively is amazing. Having like a really smart sparring partner with, with AI right out of the gate, having like an associate level right beside you. But what that's going to allow you to do is have more value at the firm, likely less roles, likely more demand for you to own more of the stack and own more names potentially too as an analyst. But the people who are jumping ahead of that and, and really actually kind of embracing it, I could see this being really beneficial to their career. But if they wait around, it's not going to be.
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Ryan Henderson
Yeah, the, I think a lot of the manual work or a lot of the like if you had people that were quote unquote equity analysts that were really just kind of creating slide decks for people and that kind of work is probably going to get automated almost to completion. Like maybe you need to do some editing on the slide. You know, if you're preparing some sort of deck for client whatever, I think you can do the majority of that automated. As for the actual individual individual equity analysts, I'm not sure a ton changes other than like solving some of your workflow, getting up to speed on a company faster. And I saw this take, I don't know, two years ago and I kind of think about it a lot, which is as the world leans more and more on AI, especially the analyst world and there's increasing algorithmic trading where things are just reacting quickly to numbers. People are maybe short shortcutting some of their research by using AI potentially the independent thinkers, the people that really sit down and listen to the calls, read the transcripts and think for themselves in a world where everyone's sharing ideas and everyone's using AI, I think they can find more meaningful differentiated views. There'll maybe be larger mispricings or larger swings in individual stock prices because of, I don't Know, AI kind of maybe helping group think a bit.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah. And then that also adds to on top of that the passive investors. I think that's another when if there's so many people that outsource their thinking to either passive or in what Ryan's example, anything AI related that will enable, you know, the fundamental focus investors to utilize these new AI tools to become to have actually better insights. And yeah, I think I've seen it too. Just stocks trading wildly on random news stuff. And I always think are people really this manic? And maybe they are. But I also think it's because a lot of people aren't thinking and it's a lot of it might be automated probably is.
- [23:26]
Ryan Henderson
There is probably a lot of just like pure not people actually trading those securities. I'm thinking of, you know, and we can, this can move to one of our topics but thinking of the Hims and Hers news that led to a 30% drop in like seconds. Do you want to go through some of that?
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah. Should we move on, talk about this one first?
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Ryan Henderson
Sure.
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Brett Shafer
Yeah.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
All right. So Hims and hers versus Novo Nordisk. I got the notes for this one. Here's a quote from one of the financial newspapers. Novo Nordisk abruptly ended its partnership with Hims and hers after the Danish drug maker accused the telehealth company of illegally selling cheaper copycats of Novo Nordisk weight loss drug and engaging in deceptive marketing. So Novo says that HIMS has the deceptive marketing out there and is putting patients at risk by not having this patented GLP1 product or sorry, having a non patented GLP1 product on their platform selling right next to, you know, their flagship product. WeGovy and Hims is saying is trying to argue that it didn't like that. I thought it was funny that they just didn't like it. It's like, well, I think it's the lock guys, but I didn't. They didn't like that Nova wanted to steer patients to Wegovy regardless of whether it was truly the best option for them. HIM stock, as Ryan mentioned, collapsed on the news. I don't have the exact figures, But I think 30, 40%. And even though so a little context here because there were shortages of these GLP1 drugs I think about a year ago, Hims and Hers and other telehealth providers were able to get cheaper products of the shortage due to some law out there. You know, if there's a shortage of a product and people need it in the pharmaceutical industry, they let other people manufacture to catch up to demand. But now that even though these shortages are over, Hims continues to make these knockoff versions of Wegovy and selling it at a discount. I guess. I have a tweet here where it kind of shows how angry Novo Nordisk is. This is from an anonymous account on Twitter, but essentially they have this press release and I'm not going to read the whole thing, but it says Hims and hers has failed to adhere to the law which prohibits mass sales of compounded drugs under the false guise of, quote, personalization and are disseminating deceptive marketing that puts patients at risk. And when companies engage in illegal sham compounding that jeopardizes the health of Americans, we will continue to take action. Okay, that's a lot of info. What are you guys general thoughts here?
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Brett Shafer
Can I ask. Can I ask a basic question about this company? Because I don't. I don't follow it too much other than I know it's been a hot one and cult, like, followed a little bit. Are they making their own products or are they just a distribution business?
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
They work with manufacturers for generic drugs. So balding stuff, Viagra type stuff, you know, stuff that's generic. But then they also work with someone like Novo Nordisk to get these drugs. They're not necessarily making anything novel. You might see them talk about their new quote unquote product, but it's not a new drug. So they just released for the her side, I think it was this chewable gummy that had one of the balding medications plus biotin in it, which is really just combining two things together and putting it in a nice marketing package. So their edge has been we're really good at marketing. We're really good at getting people onto their subscription services. We have nice branding, but we are just selling generics over the counter. And I guess another reason that they have been successful is that they use fairly cheap, generally stuff that's fairly cheap and avoid the insurance. So if you're gonna, you know, if something's 30 bucks a month, it might not be worth it to go through insurance. So that's been another loophole. Yeah. So that's, I think hopefully that answers it.
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Ryan Henderson
Tyler says plus or minus 30% is like a typical day for the shareholder, which, yeah, certainly has been lately. The thing for me about this is, and this kind of gets to, I guess, some of the. I feel like there's just been a ton of frothiness overall in the markets over the last, specifically like the last month or two. And it's not even that quality stocks are trading at expensive multiples. Although I think a lot of them are. It's some of the like most fragile business models that are getting extreme multiples.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Like or no business models. Yeah, my nuclear, my nuclear stocks.
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Ryan Henderson
There are some pre, pre revenue businesses which not all pre revenue businesses won't have revenue in the future. But like there's inherent risk there obviously. And in this case like if one, if a press release from one customer can take your stock down 30% in seconds, like I think you gotta ask some serious questions about the, the validity of the business model.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
Well, it's, it seems to me that HIMS and hers just is thinking that patents don't matter and they can just ignore it because these drugs just came out, they're still on their patents. Novo Nordisk. I got the numbers from Finchat or sorry, fiscal AI. I should get a drink there. I have to drink. Novo Nordic spends six and a half billion dollars on R and D annually. HIMS is at less than $100 million. If you want Novo Nordisk to get to spend $6 billion a year on drug development that could turn into these weight loss drugs, don't you need them, allow them to have a profit? I don't know. I was talking with someone that's been on the show before, Paul Serra, who follows this name closely. And I kind of just asked the question like, well, doesn't the patent matter? And he said that's what every investor is saying. So seems to be there in a tough spot and kind of pretending there's no issue when they have this. What I think Novo Nordisk has a market cap in the hundreds of billions. This company is going to come after them and it could be, I wouldn't say fatal. That might be too aggressive, but it could be terrible for this business.
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Brett Shafer
Yeah. And it's like one of those things where that huge R and D spend or huge Capex spend of businesses is both the bull and the bear case. Like 9 times out of 10 these types of businesses and either way you're up against a massive gorilla. And in these types of disputes, the most stubborn party always wins. And you're allowed to be more stubborn if you have more capital. So it's, it's a, it's a tricky situation. I hate owning companies with supplier risk.
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Ryan Henderson
Yeah. Concentration in like one or two suppliers hate that.
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Brett Shafer
So you know, I don't know the business too well so I'm not going to comment more than that. But generically that's my approach.
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Ryan Henderson
Yeah. The. Go ahead, Brad.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
I, I Said we did a research report episode on them last year and I said I like the stock but wasn't buying. And now it's up about four times since then. I still would say the same thing today is there's risk from one management being very aggressive in an industry where lawsuits could get them in trouble. I've seen people say that they're selling essentially with fake doctor consultations drugs that can have side effects. Some of these generic drugs like the balding medication that could lead to a class action lawsuit if they don't get their everything in order. And another thing is that they technically don't have any ip. They are saying the same, selling the same product that ro all those other ones that get marketed to people our age. Yeah, I don't know.
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Brett Shafer
The bear case. The bear case is that it's the business is manscaped. It's the same, it's the same product that everyone else has with louder, fancier marketing.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
That's a great analogy. Yeah.
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Brett Shafer
These types of businesses, you gotta give it to them like there is an actual skill to distribution. A hundred percent distribution, execution. There is a complete skill to it. Not everyone can do it. So I hate knocking on that. It's like ah, it's just distribution. There is skill to that. It's just not my style of investing. That's really tricky to own it long term.
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Braden Rhett Schaefer
I agree.
- [32:18]
Ryan Henderson
All right, I've got a couple topics that I want to jump to. People want to know what would cause you to sell Constellation Software Britain. But before we do, I want to talk about Blue Chippers Club, one of our sponsors here. This was started by two friends of ours with the goal of building a tight knit community of stock focused investors. We've already seen a ton of people join and in this club you can share your breakdown, your portfolio pitch, stocks, receive feedback. Brett, I saw you recently through your real brokerage right up into Blue Chippers Club. There's also weekly calls that you can participate in. It's honestly just a great tight knit community for investors. If that's what you're looking for. Head on over to bluetrippers club.com to hit apply once again bluetrippers club.com the link will be in the description. Brett, I interrupted you there. I saw saw your write up on Blue Trippers Club. Any thoughts?
- [33:14]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, what do you mean which company is real brokerage? It's a cloud based brokerage. I don't know if it's a business model that's too widely known but essentially it's just software that and A brokerage that allows real estate agents to kind of become their own brand or teams of agents to utilize them without going to some of the big legacy players in their area. And they're growing quite quickly. Yeah, it's I don't know. Portfolio. Yeah I'm a shareholder now. Ended up buying and one of those where you know it's not a huge position today given it is a. I think a micro cap, maybe just a small cap, fairly risky company. But I, I think there's a lot of long term growth potential if they can hit on some of their key key growth strategies.
- [34:09]
Ryan Henderson
Okay, where do we want to go next? I've got a small cap of the week that I do want to talk about at some point but Braden a stock Constellation Software as of your latest Portfolio, your fiscal AI formerly FinChat portfolio update. You posted your portfolio on Twitter. I think it was about 38% looks.
- [34:28]
Brett Shafer
The same as every update doesn't was.
- [34:32]
Ryan Henderson
I think around 38% of your equity portfolio.
- [34:36]
Brett Shafer
So someone asked doesn't include the two spin off companies which are another like 8%.
- [34:42]
Ryan Henderson
Oh really?
- [34:43]
Brett Shafer
Yeah. What were the two topic and Lumine.
- [34:47]
Ryan Henderson
Lumine, yeah. What would or is it possible for anything to happen to cause you to sell your shares in Constellation software?
- [34:57]
Brett Shafer
Oh, 100%. I mean I love, I love the company, I love the management team but I'm not married to these things. I'm. I'm an investor to make money. That's. I'm unapologetically, you know position myself like that now I hope to never sell a share. That's. That's my, my vision and my goal. But the. If there were to be a material unfolding of my thesis then yeah, I would happily move on from the name. I haven't seen anything that has caused me to do that and I typically if you know, if there's some unfolding in my thesis, it's not like I wake up and sell the whole position. I just don't operate like that. I like to see a few quarters of like oh I'm wrong before I snap decision that I'm wrong. Like they are a acquire acquisition machine at scale and they have a massive, massive backlog of companies that they can continue to acquire. There is more competition in what they're doing. They have talked a lot about these types of copycats. They're all over the world. That doesn't mean they can execute at that same level and have their tentacles as they do across all these different potential acquisitions. I mean look, they are very, very good at what they do. And if something was to happen to the company or if Mark Leonard was to move on and that special sauce falls apart, then there's lots of other good companies I can own in my portfolio. It doesn't have to be Constellation. The reason that it is such a big part of the portfolio is I have not added to it at all. And it continues to maintain about a 40% position while I add fresh capital to everything else. I mean, so, so the real story is. This is the real story of Constellation Software. Okay. I owned a very small position in the hundreds. Okay. Share price, it's about a $5,000 stock today.
- [37:12]
Ryan Henderson
Phenomenal returns.
- [37:13]
Brett Shafer
Phenomenal returns. Yeah. It's just, it's just a beast of a execution. About slightly, maybe a little higher than that position. I'd have to check on what the exact price was. But the, the, the, this is, this is what actually happened. Okay. So I worked for the government and I cashed out my pension because it was either like, here you can get 40 bucks a year when you retire and when in 40 years, or you can cash out about 70 grand today. I cashed it out, moved it to my brokerage account, and in one trade, bond, Constellation Software, one trade, the whole. It was basically all of the money that I owned.
- [37:57]
Ryan Henderson
What year was that? Do you remember?
- [37:58]
Brett Shafer
And I never looked back. That would, that would have been 20. 20. 2020.
- [38:08]
Ryan Henderson
Wow.
- [38:09]
Brett Shafer
I owned the position well before that. I've probably owned the stock for probably 10 years now, but that would have been like, it moving from like a 3% position to like, you know, at the time, like I was 24, 25, like 70 grand was probably, you know, maybe half, half of my net worth at the time. So, yeah, it was, it was considerable for me at the time was the.
- [38:33]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
With minimal volatility. The drawdowns are pretty, pretty small in that company.
- [38:40]
Ryan Henderson
Let me double check this on fiscal AI, But I. If I'm not mistaken, they have never had, or maybe in like 10 years, they have not had a 25% draw down.
- [38:51]
Brett Shafer
That's correct.
- [38:53]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah.
- [38:54]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Wow.
- [38:55]
Ryan Henderson
In since 2006, they had a more than a 22% drawdown.
- [39:03]
Brett Shafer
That's right.
- [39:04]
Ryan Henderson
That is insane stable shareholder base.
- [39:07]
Brett Shafer
It's a very, very patient shareholder base. The shares don't turn over. People kind of just hold it as long as they can. Right. Like, it is definitely one of those stocks. It only trades on the tsx. It's not caught the eyes of people kind of in and out of it. The shares are $5,000 each. Most people in Canada can't fractional share it so you don't get the retail base. And it's a lethargic, lethargic shareholder base. Type types of people I like hanging out with.
- [39:39]
Ryan Henderson
I mean that was kind of early days. Berkshire obviously there was no fractional share selling and the. I always get them mixed up. The A shares were trading at whatever a steep cost and people would, they, they weren't going to split because they were like we want this to be a commitment. We want you to actually like not just mindlessly buy A share but like you have to commit some real money to, to become a shareholder. And it. I would say, I'm guessing most people can't buy the fractional shares today for Constellation. So it's probably quite similar.
- [40:14]
Brett Shafer
You, you attract the shareholders you deserve on a long horizon.
- [40:20]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah and Mark Leonard has done a good job of that by, by more often than not saying nothing by just being mysterious.
- [40:30]
Brett Shafer
Look, I mean there are too few. There are two people that I think have understand human incentives best in the entire world. Charlie Munger, Mark Leonard. I don't. Those two guys understand human incentives better than anyone else and they use that to make billions of dollars. Like I truly mean that. That, that is the entire business model. It's understanding incentives.
- [41:00]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
I just wish Leonard could, you know, teach his wisdom more publicly like Munger. But maybe when he gets older he'll do that. Let's talk your small cap, Ryan. Abercrombie and Fitch.
- [41:13]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah. This might be a. Is this a thing in Canada? Is that, is that a common brand in Canada?
- [41:18]
Brett Shafer
Yeah, I think it's the same. As far as I know the same story as in the US it was really popular when we were in like high school. It died and now it's back. Is that, is that the right story? Yeah, same thing.
- [41:31]
Ryan Henderson
It's about right. The. So people have probably heard this name. I, I'll say. I thought they were bankrupt for the longest time I just assumed they were bankrupt because there was a mall based concept. It was traditional retail. Investors hated it and apparently they've had a whole bunch of near bankruptcies or gotten near collapse. Anyways today 3.8 billion dollar market cap. The stock is up roughly 5x over the last five years. They got a new CEO and basically started this turnaround strategy in 2017. Let me make sure I get the name correct. I don't know if I have the name here But a woman CEO she took over in 2017 and she basically got decided. So they own Hollister and they own Abercrombie. And Fitch, which, if you grew up as like, a teenager from 2010 to 2020, those felt very similar. It was just like the cool kid fashionable mall store, and they had basically merged into sort of the same brand. And so she came in and said, look, we need to turn either we need to mesh them into the same store, literally, or we need to change the branding around them. And so Abercrombie basically became sort of the store for busy millennials. And sounds really easy to just like, oh, we're the store for busy millennials. And, like, give it lip service. But they did a lot of, like, small tweaks to really change the store format. Like, they really optimized for online buying so that people could kind of come in and get their stuff really quickly. They change the inventory or the merchandise to kind of cater more to that audience. I don't know if you guys remember this, but they used to have, like, just really dim lighting for some reason in those stores. They changed that.
- [43:26]
Brett Shafer
And just cologne everywhere.
- [43:28]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah.
- [43:29]
Brett Shafer
Can't even breathe it. Yeah, I remember.
- [43:33]
Ryan Henderson
So they've revamped the model there. Hollister sort of has that same vibe still of kind of catering towards the. The teens that want to hang out and shop. But Abercrombie has really renovated, and it's apparently that along with some other operational changes, they cut a bunch of underperforming stores. And apparently it wasn't like the stores were in terrible locations, but they were just three times bigger than they needed to be. So they're like, look, we can't. We can't shrink it down. We got to get rid of it. Or in some cases, maybe they were able to get a new location in or a new place in the same location. But basically it's changed the profitability on a per store basis in a huge way. So rent costs have come down. I created a custom metric with fiscal AI. Shout out to them. They've got store count, and then they've got. I just used operating income divided by the total store count, and it's basically gone from. If we go normal year, February 2020, they were generating about $160,000 in operating income per store. Today, they're just under a million dollars in operating income per store. They have now had nine consecutive quarters of positive comp store sales. They traded an EV to EBIT of six times. Yeah, Brett's sharing the screen here. And it's. I. I have, like, a no apparel policy. I think Brett and I have developed, like, stay away from apparel at all costs. But they have bought back 12% of their. Or they're on pace to buy back 12% of their shares this year. Any interest in this concept?
- [45:14]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
EBIT of 6 seems like a fair price for an apparel company. It's just tough out there. I was thinking this whole time, well, I don't even know that. Maybe they're targeting a different audience. Maybe. I don't know if it's like, if it's gender different or gender neutral, but I just think, you know, if you want cheap stuff, go on Amazon. And then there are all these other brands that will just give you 80% off, throw you coupons that you can buy stuff online if you want apparel. And it just seems like a highly competitive industry that is getting even more competitive every year because of the Internet. And then you have the forcing function of Amazon. Yeah, six times earnings seems fair, but.
- [45:56]
Ryan Henderson
But hey, that was before they started ramping revenue per store and operating income per store. It's been the same issue for a decade. I. I think something is working here.
- [46:09]
Brett Shafer
Go ahead, Henderson. Henderson, none of this matters, okay? None of this matters. Is the. Is the company cool right now?
- [46:19]
Ryan Henderson
Yes, I think it is.
- [46:21]
Brett Shafer
Like 10 years.
- [46:22]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
It might not be.
- [46:23]
Brett Shafer
Exactly. And that's why fashion is impossible. But, but operating income per store, who cares? Like, is the brand cool right now? We're talking about a, you know, apparel company, Abercromb. It's cool right now. They're helping people go from like, my wardrobe sucks to it's fashionable again. I've been using that to like, un. Ugly myself port, like in my. In, in my closet. And my fiance's very into fashion, and she's been getting me stuff from there. And it's good. It's. It's. It's a bit fast. Fashiony for sure. But the price is like mid. Tier. They probably make some decent margins on stuff. And, and you go in there and it's like you can get some stuff that will like, make you look like you're part of the newest thing. Right. And they jumped on this newest thing, which is like back to 90s fashion before everyone else, and that's why they're crushing it. Yeah, but this thing will go out of fashion soon, and if they don't get it before the next thing, it's the. It's the same fate of every apparel company, but the full returns on this stuff. Henderson, none of that matters. With this, like, it is literally just. Is it cool? And how long can it be cool? Yes.
- [47:49]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah.
- [47:50]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
And I got zero, zero insight for you.
- [47:53]
Brett Shafer
Yeah, exactly.
- [47:54]
Ryan Henderson
Brett, our resident Fashion expert.
- [47:59]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, I'm not. I'm not that much worse than you. Right. Come on.
- [48:03]
Ryan Henderson
That's true. Yeah. Honestly, as much as I. I will say good for them. Totally did not see this turnaround coming.
- [48:11]
Brett Shafer
Yeah. And really well done.
- [48:13]
Ryan Henderson
Kudos to that CEO for actually making themselves cool again. But yeah, I just genuine. I have no interest. Like, it could be. It could be like three times earnings.
- [48:23]
Brett Shafer
What's the market cap?
- [48:24]
Ryan Henderson
3.8 billion.
- [48:26]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, this. Yep. 3.8 EV, 4.2, but that could include operating leases anyway.
- [48:35]
Ryan Henderson
All right, well, there's our small cap of the week. If you like investing in apparel. I'm sorry for you. But also this could be an interesting concept to look at.
- [48:45]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, I saw that. Lululemon is almost going to hit the same. Speaking of apparel and companies that go out of style, which. That's a huge debate among the investing community right now. It almost has the same multiple as British American Tobacco. They're converging since, you know, I don't know which one deserves.
- [49:02]
Brett Shafer
One's a growth industry. I'll let you decide which one.
- [49:06]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Exactly. Exactly. All right. You guys want to do a bubble watch?
- [49:11]
Ryan Henderson
Yes. But before we do, I should mention for small cap of the week and for all your stocks, fiscal AI has all the data you need and more. And you can use our code or Our Link Fiscal AI chitchat to get 15 off any paid plans. Bubble watch. There was a lot to choose from this week, Brett.
- [49:35]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
I'm going to choose one that was floating around online. I'm just going to read this article from Bloomberg and see what you guys think. Quote, A footwear startup is teaming up with two space companies to design a shoe in orbit as part of a mission to make artificial intelligence and blockchain less expensive and more eco friendly than it is on Earth. Orbit's Edge, a company that supports AI and blockchain applications, and Copernic Space, which offers digital marketplaces for space assets, plan to send a solar and battery powered satellite to space equipped with a computer that will use AI automation to produce a shoe design for the Scintilla brand. The mission is expected to launch on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket in early 2026.
- [50:19]
Ryan Henderson
I don't know what any of that means, to be honest. I did not follow that.
- [50:25]
Brett Shafer
It just smash all the buzzwords you can into one press release. Profit.
- [50:31]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, it's a publicity. Falcon 9. Those are cheap. Those are cheap missions, I hear.
- [50:37]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah, that's a nice. I. I sure hope the PR stunt is worth it because that's. That's not cheap if you're taking a Falcon 9 rocket to do it.
- [50:46]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, well, I was really interested to see if these companies were public, but I don't think they are. Yeah, I don't know. I got no thoughts either. Just kind of whenever there's a new technology or something like AI and it turns into a narrative, there's going to be all these copycats, I think. Remember Long Island Blockchain? Long Island Ist changed themselves to blockchain when that was the new narrative that.
- [51:11]
Ryan Henderson
Wait, what was that?
- [51:12]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
There's going to be all these companies that are trying to, they don't have anything and they're gonna try to just take advantage of this narrative to raise money.
- [51:20]
Ryan Henderson
I'm sorry, what did you say about Long Island Iced Tea?
- [51:23]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, do you remember this was 2017. I could be misremembering it, but Long Island Iced Tea changed their name to Long Island Blockchain. Yeah. Yeah.
- [51:35]
Ryan Henderson
All right, all right. What other bubble watch do you have here?
- [51:40]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
We have. Well, I don't know if this is a bubble watch, but I thought this was a crazy story and it's not really that investing related but it's, it's a big investment fund. The co founder of Jane Street Capital admitted to accidentally funding a coup to overthrow the South Sudan's government. Robert Gurneri, the co founder of New York based hedge fund said he was deceived into funding $7 million for the purchase of AK47 Stinger missiles and grenade. I don't want to mention the people he gave the money to, but both to people that were accused of scheming a South Sudan coup in March 2024. So if you think about you're making a mistake with your job, just you know, you didn't make the worst mistake this week.
- [52:24]
Ryan Henderson
How do you accidentally do that?
- [52:26]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
They tricked him into thinking he was a non profit apparently.
- [52:30]
Ryan Henderson
Wow.
- [52:31]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, maybe it was, maybe it was technically a non profit.
- [52:34]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah, that's a hard one to come back from.
- [52:36]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Crazy headline.
- [52:38]
Brett Shafer
I see people get scammed with like a crappy course for 70 bucks and then I see this, I'm like take that as a cheap lesson.
- [52:49]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, you could be doing much worse than this guy. Yeah. With a guilty conscience. I got no other thoughts on that too, but here's one that I think is an actual topic that maybe you guys have some thoughts on. It's probably one of the biggest news items from the week and that's the Tesla Robo taxi launch. They deployed a small amount of self driving cars in a portion of Downtown Austin. Everyone pray for Ryan's safety as he is within the vicinity of these vehicles. I looked at the map on Google Maps that they gave for their geofenced area and it looks like it's about, you could drive about, across in about 20 minutes. So it's not a huge portion of Austin's downtown. The company claims this is the start of bringing the product national, although most industry experts are highly skeptical and we're already seeing a lot of edge cases. I guess there's a video of I don't have to play the video but they, they paid an influencer to take a ride in the vehicle and she was trying to promote it and some sunlight hit the cameras and then it started jerking around and going a little crazy like slammed on.
- [53:51]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah, yeah, I saw one, I saw there was, I mean a lot of the, I think it was like basically YouTubers or maybe Tesla shareholders that were like really the people riding around on this because I think it was like a Tuesday during the day when they launched this, which I imagine most people were working and it just veered into oncoming traffic and they were like, oh, okay. Well that was one error, small error. It's like that's, that's a pretty big error. And Austin's relatively easy to drive in.
- [54:24]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Yeah, that's why I think that was Waymo's first testing ground. Now Braden, Ryan and I have talked about these type the self driving stuff ad nauseam, Waymo stuff like that. Listeners know our big topic.
- [54:36]
Brett Shafer
It's worth this. It's worth it. Yeah.
- [54:38]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
So listen to know our take. But I'm curious, do you care about it as an investor? Do you look at, do you have any hot takes on the industry? What are your thoughts?
- [54:47]
Brett Shafer
Yeah, I care about it a lot. I mean I, I've been, I've been an Uber shareholder for give or take two years now. I want to say a company that I never thought I'd be an investor in when they IPO'd. But you know, things, things change, facts change, change your mind and you know, looking forward to what's going to happen and the impressive execution of, of Waymo and this kind of forever incoming robo taxi launch, which I guess last weekend they did it in this kind of small test case. There's all, there's going to be a lot of critics for this technology when things go wrong and there's going to be the video and there's going to be the lobbies against this and it's going to be a very contentious topic and there's going to be a lot of people who are kind of not the not in my backyard types who will never want to adopt this and never trust it themselves. And. And I get all of that. But I live in Toronto, one of the most congested places on planet Earth. When it comes to traffic. There are some horrendous drivers and I see these videos of like a Waymo take a wrong turn or like, you know, accidentally cut someone off. I'm like, oh, it's just. That's like a 9 out of 10 compared to what I see on an average day. So I am very pro this stuff, especially if it can get people places faster and cheaper and more safe because the stats are. The stats is. It is. It is more safe. And human drivers just suck. They're always on their phone. People are just constantly distracted. I live down in Florida this winter and where I live, people are scrolling on their phone and doing stupid stuff. But for the most part it's very frowned upon. Dude, I swear, people are like watching Netflix in Florida while they drive. Like, it is just. People are just. Yeah, people are just hands out, driving out the front windshield, like just shameless.
- [56:50]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
And no rules down there.
- [56:52]
Brett Shafer
No. Yeah. And it's scary, honestly. Scary. I just think to myself, like, this is so obvious that, that it should be done with. With smart technology instead. And. And it's coming. It's. And I. I'm especially excited for it to come to commercial long transport logistics as well too, because that, that's going to come as well too. Not just like the kind of Uber. Taxi. Taxi.
- [57:19]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
It could be the long game with Amazon and their ambitions there.
- [57:22]
Brett Shafer
100%.
- [57:24]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
So you're an Uber shareholder? Unless I maybe. That was in the past. I don't know if you are today.
- [57:29]
Brett Shafer
Still am today. Yep.
- [57:31]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
What are your thoughts? You know, that's another one that's turning into a battleground stock. They're partnering with Waymo, but people see the risk. How have you been looking at it?
- [57:40]
Brett Shafer
I've had to think about the. The use case and distribution of how things will change over time. I really, I really. Next time I'm in California, I want to just go to the Bay Area and order one. I've never been in one. And just understand the process, start to finish. And then I really want to understand these cases where they're using Uber for the distribution. Like, is that the case in Austin right now, Henderson, or is it.
- [58:09]
Ryan Henderson
Yeah, it's exclusive on Uber.
- [58:11]
Brett Shafer
It's exclusive on Uber. I haven't been able to figure out exactly what's in the mind of the Waymo CEO of what they think distribution looks like in five years from now. I would love to be able to tap into that. And that's why it's a battleground stock, because no one really knows. It's like they have this area over here where it's completely autonomous. All the distributions done on their own app. They're rolling out in Phoenix and Austin exclusively on and other locations, it looks like some of the comments here in Atlanta through Uber, I think. I think they're going to be doing Miami on Uber as well too. And that makes sense. You get instant distribution and that's like, that's the Uber moat speaking. And then you go to like where it started in California. It just completely bypasses the Rails. So it feels a little bit like a Visa MasterCard situation where there's a new payments network being done and in some areas they're having to use Visa and MasterCard and in some cases like Asia, where they're completely bypassing the Rails. That's the parallel I'm thinking of. I still own the stock and I'm still bullish on the stock because so many places they will need to be the Rails. But again, the same way I got into the position, I may change my mind over the next few years. I haven't been adding to it even though the numbers keep getting better. I haven't been adding to that because the beginning of this episode underwriting that with technology. I just don't want to get smacked on the wrong side of a secular trend. Against me, that is the easiest way to lose money, to be on the wrong side of a secular trend. I don't care if it's cheap. I don't care if the fundamentals look great on a historical basis. It doesn't matter if something's trading at 20 times earnings and you're on the wrong side of the secular trend, you're going to own it at 12 times earnings and lose a lot of money and still think it's cheap.
- [60:03]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Nope.
- [60:04]
Brett Shafer
Market doesn't care if you think it's cheap. I. I only care about making and losing money in the stock market. So.
- [60:09]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Fair point. Fair point. Ryan, do you want to talk? We only got a minute left here. Your portfolio update with AST Space Mobile.
- [60:18]
Ryan Henderson
We can, we can save it for another time. I do want to ask like pseudo announcement because we got Braden on the show today. First of all, kudos to our Series A. Anyone that doesn't know you can check it out online. Fiscal AI raised $10 million. Can you give some of our listeners context around the name change? Why did you decide it was time to go from Finchat to Fiscal AI?
- [60:47]
Brett Shafer
There's three reasons why we needed to change the name fundamentally rather than like oh we really like Fiscal AI, we're going to change that. So there's three reasons why we need to change the name. One is people thought we were strictly a chat with financial data application rather than a full fledged terminal. And as we talked with more enterprise y institutional type users they were coming to us with that and then going like oh my God like this is, this is better than my current terminal setup. And you know we have two Bloombergs for our 15 person office that we're all sharing. Everyone else should have a subscription to this and we're not going to replace our terminals but this could be complimentary. So that was happening a lot. The second reason was IP issues with the chat name. Don't need to bore bore ourselves with that. And the third reason is with banks it was getting blocked because anything chat AI in the URL, most large banks were just banning it as like an a site you can go to because they don't want to have people put their data into these LLMs like sensor sensitive customer infer. So we'd start like a trial like our demo with a bank and I'd be like yeah, just go on there and like start your account. And they're like oh like it's blocked. That's why we reached out to you to get a demo. And then I'd get like a eight months later I'd get a notification that it was unblocked. It's like okay, I completely forgot about our conversation. So it was really messing up our sales cycle. So we need to change the name. Fiscal AI came up because one we thought it was a fantastic domain name that was available. The name wasn't being used. Six letter English word, fantastic, that means finance. And I did some research. It is one of if not the most used English word on our entire platform for a name that, for a word that I thought was very related to like government policy. At first I was like oh wow. Every public company reports their fiscal Q1 results. Or you know, welcome to our Q1 fiscal earnings call this and that and they're reporting their results and that's at the end of the day what we're doing is we're aggregating and displaying financial data off these companies who report them. So we thought it was a fitting name.
- [63:01]
Ryan Henderson
Oh yeah, I, well I'm biased but I like the name change. It always feels a little weird at first, but hopefully it'll sit well over time. Any other closing thoughts for you? Brett?
- [63:14]
Braden Rhett Schaefer
Don't think so. Yeah, link to Fiscal AI is in the show notes get in it yourself. A nice discount. Plenty of listeners have signed up, so we appreciate that. I'm sure Braden and Ryan do as well. Let's hit the disclosure and we'll get out of here. We are not financial advisors. Anything we say on the show is not formal advice or recommendation. Ryan I are Any podcast guest may hold securities discussed in this podcast, may have held them in the past and may buy, sell or hold them in the future. Thank you everyone for tuning into this episode. Joining the live stream that goes on every Thursday on the Chit chat stocks podcast YouTube channel. But listen to the recordings on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast and we'll see you next time.